STUPIDITY HAS ITS OWN REWARDS

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Saturday, July 18, 2009

Alternative Health Care Plan

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Here's a thought about spending trillions on health care: take the money and do an Apollo 11 type effort to find the cures for cancer and heart disease and diabetes and baldness [okay, maybe not that].

Rather than spending money on more patient warehousing and medical rationing, go all out for finding the cures to illnesses that cost individuals and families and businesses and our society billions of dollars annually... and then give those cures to anyone and everyone. The payback will be far more significant than treating a lot of symptoms for extended periods with 20th century technology and alchemy.

Somehow we could place humans on the moon 40 years ago, but we still try to treat cancer with poison. The Obama administration just wants to do a lot more of the same. And if you do a lot more of what you always did, you'll get what you always got... just a lot more of it. The only real difference is that the focus will shift toward spending more on mediocre treatment and less on solving the underlying problems. After all, part of the incentive for private enterprise to find cures is the profit from selling them. If the government is going to take over the health care industry, what's the incentive? Just raise taxes.

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Friday, July 17, 2009

Lightweight Champions

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

It is more and more apparent to more and more people that, in the Federal government, there are more and more lightweight thinkers making a lot of lightweight decisions about a lot of heavy issues.

We have a lightweight President who has a lightweight resume... but he talks glibly and appeals to people who are content doing lightweight thinking about their government.

We have the lightweight, manic-eyed leader of the House... from the State of California that can lay claim to the worst fiscal and political management in the nation, but is the leader in the kind of programs that the lightweight President and the lightweight leader of the House want to take nationally.

We have the lightweight leader of the Senate who can barely string together a coherent thought or sentence from a state best known for gambling and prostitution... so why not gamble with our futures and prostitute the Constitution?

This lightweight administration and its lightweight minions believe that the Constitution expressly provides that any powers not expressly granted to the states are the powers that the Federal government can assume... and force upon the people. Under what provision of the Constitution does the Federal government take over private business and determine who can obtain what health services? Apparently, it is the same provision that deems racism by minorities is different from racism against minorities... and qualifies minorities who publicly declare their racism in statements of ethnic and gender superiority to be suitable for the Supreme Court.

We have a morally lightweight government which believes that intellectually lightweight citizens who make air-headed personal decisions and are burdens on our society deserve more benefits to be paid for by those who prepare well, work hard and long, and make great personal sacrifices becoming productive and successful members of society.

Our lightweight politicians believe that you should be taxed according to your contribution and you should receive to compensate for your incompetence... and all should be managed by the most inefficient, ineffective, costliest processes in the nation... processes that the government admits can only operate through enormous expansion of public debt.

Our government is filled with lightweight champions. Champions of lightweight thinking and planning and execution of programs.

This all was done before in the Soviet Union... with heavyweight costs and consequences. Our lightweights just lack so much substance that they can't grasp that.

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Thursday, July 16, 2009

What Happens If The Earth Warms

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Other suggested reading.

The many doomsday scenarios floating around have left me wondering what a warmer earth might look like. I would venture a guess that many people, if not most, would presume that wherever they are it would be warmer by 2° or 4° or whatever°. After posting yesterday about Michigan's extended spring, I thought it might be an interesting idea to speculate... much as the IPCC modelers have done... about the pros and cons of a warmer planet.

In February, 2007 I wrote a post entitled: Global Warming - A Clearer Perspective. In that post, I provided a comparison of average temperatures in Orlando, Florida with other U.S. locations through this chart [note temperatures are in °C ... click image for larger view]:


The purpose was to show that any warming may or may not be a bad or good phenomenon. That squiggly green line is supposed to be the 20th century global warming... in proper perspective, not the exaggerated perspective of most charts.

We all agree that having the earth's average temperature increase 7°C would have significant impact on the way we live... especially if that increase was rapid and evenly distributed. That, however, is a very unlikely scenario even if you believe the very faulty computer models... or doomsday science fiction movies modeled after Al Gore's fiction.

The present "official" data on the U.S. temperature change in the 20th century shows a modest change over the course of a century from a cold-period starting point... and a flat trend from the 1930s or so. And that change is dependent on continually revising past data downward and present data upward [thanks to Watts Up With That for the graphic... with the exaggerated perspective]



Regardless, of the manipulation, the possibility that Fairbanks, Alaska will have a climate similar to Detroit, Michigan within a millennium is too remote to consider plausible... at least from some industrial emissions. But let's say that warming could be 2°F [not °C] or almost twice as much as the manipulated data for the 20th century. The effects would certainly be sporadic.

Coastal areas would probably have less temperature impact due to moderation from water circulation. It is possible that Detroit could have a milder climate... less severe winters and a longer growing season... perhaps like Columbus, Ohio. Texas could get hotter with high temperatures moving from the low 100s to the slightly higher low 100s. Water might become an issue in some inland areas... or rain may actually increase depending on whose study you want to believe.

2°F would have no impact on Antarctica except for, possibly, a very small percentage of the western peninsula coastline.

The reality is that 2°F average change would have little noticeable impact on our climates. Detroit will not become like Sacramento, California [too bad]. The world will not become a tropical paradise. With the exception of some slight added discomfort due to lack of air-conditioning caused by alternative energy power shortages, we will go about our lives shoveling a little less snow [or not] and harvesting our tomatoes a little longer. But our Cap and Trade schemes and Alternative Energy schemes will make this a much more expensive financial climate.

Regardless, all of this worry is likely misplaced:
GLOBAL WARMING: OUR BEST GUESS IS LIKELY WRONG

Rice University, 14 July 2009
<http://www.media.rice.edu/media/NewsBot.asp?MODE=VIEW&ID=12794&SnID=1419357327>

"In a nutshell, theoretical models cannot explain what we observe in the geological record," said oceanographer Gerald Dickens, a co-author of the study and professor of Earth science at Rice University. "There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with the way temperature and carbon are linked in climate models." ...

The conclusion, Dickens said, is that something other than carbon dioxide caused much of the heating during the PETM. "Some feedback loop or other processes that aren't accounted for in these models -- the same ones used by the IPCC for current best estimates of 21st Century warming -- caused a substantial portion of the warming that occurred during the PETM [Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum]."

CONTACT: Jade Boyd
PHONE: 713-348-6778
E-MAIL: jadeboyd@rice.edu
[H/T Benny Peiser]
Look up, the answer may be right over your head.

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Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Spring In Michigan Is Wonderful Except In July

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

Spring is enjoyable in Michigan. You shake off the long winter gray and freeze and watch the earth spring back to life. We've gotten through the first two weeks of July and we are still enjoying spring... the the average temperature hovering near the normal low temperature. But, you know, that gets a little old when you really want to enjoy the summer.

It looks as if the highs will have to reach about 90°F for the next half if we are to approach a "normal" month. The forecast, however, says that won't happen. This weekend, swimmers better be wearing their wetsuits.

That's about 10° below normal.

Hey, Al, where is all that warming you've been talking about for years? The upside is no running the air-conditioner. That's good news with alternative energy coming up... and the electric rates as well.

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Senate Hearings About Sonia Sotomayor

SEARCH BLOG: GOVERNMENT

Sometimes one has to be reminded about how inane our governmental processes can be. Sure, they are constitutional and properly legal and excruciatingly detailed... but that can be sooooo inane.

C-Span3 covered the Senate confirmation hearing for Sonia Sotomayor today and I really attempted to watch. But after a while it resembled a children's game of "tag." "You're it." "No, you're it." "I'm not it."

I finally had to quit watching as Sen. Charles Schumer of N.Y. made feeble attempts to pretend he was trying to "tag" Judge Sotomayor with "probing" questions. It was like a major league baseball player being asked to hit a "T" ball... you know, where the ball is placed on a short pole so that a kid has a chance to hit it without having to know how to hit. "Here's the answer as part of my question; please reword the answer." Oooooo, thank you sooooooo much!

As I wrote the other day, this is simply window dressing for the public. There is no substance to the confirmation hearing. Why bother? I can't see any reason why I should bother to watch further. Nothing to learn here... move along.

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Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Who Is Thaddeus McCotter?

SEARCH BLOG: GOVERNMENT

You may have noticed the section on the right called "McCotter's Corner." Thaddeus McCotter is a U.S. Representative from Livonia, Michigan. He is not my district's representative. So why do I feature him in this blog?

Rep. McCotter is somewhat of an independent thinker although his opponents would like to brand him a right-wing radical. He does have a wry and ironic streak about him and wields words in a saber-like fashion... cutting through the political BS to get to the heart of matters. Of course, that does not necessarily endear him to the "hide-the-weenie" Washington crowd. That may be why the Democratic Party wants to target his spot in the House.

While he opposed the huge $700 billion bailout, he fought for loans to save the domestic automobile industry. It would seem that he sees a distinction between money distribution and manufacturing. One money distributor or so can be quickly absorbed or replaced by another, but domestic manufacturing capability, once lost, is unlikely to be regained. Some might argue that such capabilities are not important anymore, but I tend to agree with Rep. McCotter that without such capabilities the U.S. becomes just another secondary consumer market for those countries with the capabilities. That may eventually happen given the propensities of both Republican and the present Democratic administrations which is why I give Rep. McCotter credit for the ability to distinguish reason from rhetoric.

The U.S. is withdrawing into a shell under the Obama administration. It is forgetting that entitlements without the resources produced by businesses large and small are nothing more than consuming our futures. There is an old parable/metaphor about the Golden Goose. Perhaps someone should remind the Obama administration about it. I'm hoping that Rep. McCotter might be the one.

I suspect that by the 2010 elections, there will be many Democratic districts that will be looking for their own McCotters.

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Monday, July 13, 2009

Who Is Sonia Sotomayor?

SEARCH BLOG: GOVERNMENT

As the confirmation process for Sonia Sotomayor moves into Congress, one might ask the question, "Who is Sonia Sotomayor?"

The answers will provide a wide range of personal and judicial trivia and data. Yet the question being asked is really, "Who will Sonia Sotomayor be as a Supreme Court Justice?" People are betting that she will lean "left" or she will "vote with the majority most of the time." It all depends on your predilections as to how you prognosticate.

Is she smart or smarmy? Is she intelligent or indulgent? And why has she made statements about ethnicity and gender that would automatically disqualify any white male?

Actually, all such questions are moot. It really doesn't matter who Sonia Sotomayor is because the one-party rule of the U.S. ensures that any review proceedings are purely window dressing for the public.

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Saturday, July 11, 2009

Sen. Stabenow On Energy and Climate Change

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE and ENERGY

While this is probably a formulaic response to my message urging Sen. Stabenow to consider carefully any vote for a bill that could cause significant economic harm to Michigan, Sen. Stabenow's [staff?] response indicates a chance [snowball in hell] that scientific data and clear thinking could be noticed [before being summarily dismissed].

Politicians 1) are party animals first, 2) have insufficient time to thoroughly understand the complexities of the myriad issues facing votes... even if they wanted to, and 3) are too focused on what passes from the media as correct rather than what may be correct.

Even those who may come to testify before Congress that there is scientific reason to oppose the views of Mr. Gore are (sometimes) listened to politely before they are dismissed. Therefore, the only way to be heard for the rest of us is through the government's email system for senators and representative. Unfortunately, a voting constituent often has little impact when the countering voice is Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid.

Sen. Stabenow's reply:

Mr. Bruce Hall

Thank you . . .

. . . for contacting me about climate change. I understand your concerns.

While I respect your views, I also recognize the growing scientific consensus about climate change. If left unchecked, the effects of climate change include lower water levels in the Great Lakes, threats to fish and wildlife, diminished ability to grow food crops, and an overall threat to our quality of life. That's why we need a balanced, common-sense approach to this problem.

As Congress considers climate change legislation, I am working with my colleagues, especially from the Midwest, to ensure that the finished product works for Michigan. If the final legislation does not work for our state, I will not support it.

That is why I have been leading efforts in the Senate to create a Clean Energy Development Authority to provide financing for cutting-edge new technologies and create jobs. This financing is absolutely critical so that we do not trade a dependence on foreign oil for a dependence on foreign technology.

It's not enough that we simply use green technologies, we have to make them in the United States. A wind turbine is made of over 8,000 individual parts, and all of those parts can be made in Michigan. That's why I'm working to make green manufacturing a central part of our energy strategy. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act included $2 billion for advanced battery research and manufacturing. It also included a new tax credit to promote the manufacture of renewable energy products.

I believe that by making the right policy choices and the right investments, we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a way that revitalizes Michigan's economy and creates new jobs.

New energy solutions create new jobs and new industries. We are in the midst of an energy revolution that is creating new opportunities for innovation, investment, and invention. At the same time, we are leaving a cleaner environment for our children, and we are breaking our dangerous addiction to foreign oil.

Because of our strong industrial and agricultural sectors, supported by some of the best research universities in the country, Michigan is in a unique position to lead the nation as we transition to a green energy economy. I will continue to fight for a climate change policy that focuses on creating good-paying jobs and strengthening our economy.

Thank you again for contacting me. Please continue to keep me informed about issues of concern to you and your family.

Sincerely,

Debbie Stabenow

United States Senator

For any of you who believe that the political process works... re-read the above response. Remember that the House version was passed without anyone [except Rep. Boehner] actually taking the time to read it.

This is all about saying, "We will save you from yourself... and then come to your rescue when this doesn't work... as long as you vote for us."
Sen. Stabenow, here are three fairly colloquially written sites that explain why this is a wild goose chase. You don't have to be a scientist to understand the information.
These men have about a century of combined work in the field of weather and climate... and more importantly in understanding the quality of the data and models used in those fields. Some(one) on your staff should spend the time to educate themselves so that they can give you a somewhat different perspective on an issue that has become purely political science rather than real science.
But I understand the political game and there is no WIIFM for going against the party line.

I do believe that Sen. Stabenow means well. But there is a vast gulf between intending to do well and doing well in this instance.

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New Blog Layout

Hall Of Record's visible posts have been reduced to the seven most current days in the left column. A list of "labels" or post categories and the archive of postings immediately follows. Other features remain in the right column. HOME

Can"t Find It?

Use the SEARCH BLOG feature at the upper left. For example, try "Global Warming".

You can also use the "LABELS" in this column or at the end of each post to find related posts.

Cost of Gasoline - Enter Your Zipcode or Click on Map

What's Your Plan?

What\
If you don't like burning fossil fuels for electricity, what's your plan?

CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?