Environmental Extremism: More thoughts on the Hydrogen economy

I've written several times in the last month about what it will take to move toward a hydrogen-based economy. There is a fine article in the January, 2005 issue of Popular Science that summarizes well the problems and hype around moving toward a new energy infrastructure. It leaves the distinct impression that talking and doing are separated by vast distances.

Nevertheless, this article should be required reading for all those who wish to get on the hydrogen bandwagon... not because a hydrogen-based economy is a bad idea, but because there needs to be a better understanding that there is a sequence of development that must take place to get to the hydrogen-based economy (time estimates below are mine):

1. increased numbers of non-fossil fuel electricity generating plants [see my November 7 and November 22 posts]...
   probably timeframe: 2010 - 2050
2. major improvements to hydrogen fuel system technology [not just fuel cells]...
   probable timeframe: 2010 - 2030
   
3. full-scale development of a hydrogen fuel distribution system...
   probable timeframe: 2015 - 2035
   

These are expensive with a long timeframe for any return on investment. Right now, the major focus should be on 1 above. By quickly moving away from oil, coal and natural gas powered electic plants, both pollution and dependence on imported energy sources would be vastly reduced. Additionally, the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources proposed projects like the Alaskan natural gas pipeline might be avoided altogether... or limited... because the demand for natural gas could be reduced significantly.

Let's face it... energy costs are going to increase over the next few decades... faster than other costs... unless we change the basic approach to energy now. As the commercial says... "you can pay me now or you can pay me later." Unfortunately, Americans seem to need an existing crisis to take action... pending crises do not concern us.