From National Intelligence Council study: "Mapping the Global Future" page 8. Link on the CIA website
Some interesting reading in the 123 page report.
We'll take a closer look over the next few days... but here are some points to ponder
- In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the “American Century,” the 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India,comes into its own.
- By 2020, globalization could be equated in the popular mind with a rising Asia, replacing its current association with Americanization.
- Growing connectivity will be accompanied by the proliferation of virtual communities of interest, complicating the ability of states to govern. The Internet in particular will spur the creation of even more global movements, which may emerge as a robust force in international affairs. [this is not a quote from Tom Clancy's Net Force... but it could be]
- The absence of effective conflict resolution mechanisms in some regions, the rise of nationalism in some states, and the raw emotions and tensions on both sides of some issues—for example, the Taiwan Strait or India/Pakistan issues—could lead to miscalculation. Moreover, advances in modern weaponry—longer ranges, precision delivery, and more destructive conventional munitions—create circumstances encouraging the preemptiveuse of military force.