Sunday, February 13, 2005

Back From The Future

While speculating about the future can be "fun", there is a serious component to it... present decisions affect future abilities. Simply responding to present issues does not necessarily prepare us for what is likely to occur.
Confusing?

We get our information from so many different perspectives that seeing the larger picture is difficult. GM (and other automobile manufactureres) are constantly trying to take advantage of potential opportunities without making disastrous decisions. Headlines oversimplify out of necessity... grab the reader without taking up space.

So let's summarize where the headlines are going:
  • GM is facing great competition from Toyota for leadership in world automotive sales and profits
  • GM's products are aging, it has huge cost burdens, and some of its operations are creating distractions and inefficiencies
  • China appears to be a major market opportunity and is presently yielding growth and profit for both GM and Toyota
  • But there is an underlying problem in dealing with China that may override the benefits presently being realized including outright piracy of GM designs and manufacturing techniques by Chinese firms that will bring GMs growth in China to a grinding halt
  • And there is a possibility that GMs foray into China may be creating its next competitor in the U.S. ... the Chevy Chery
Unlike Toyota, GM does not enjoy a market protected from non-U.S. manufacturers. The U.S. government encourages "free trade" which is loosely translated into "bring in the cheap goods" regardless of consequences. That includes ignoring issues of outright unfair trade practices by Asian countries... practices that are illegal in the U.S. It's a Faustian deal.

Before the future arrives, it is time to address what makes GM not tick... tock, tick, tock....