Saturday, November 10, 2007

Oil Boom or Bust?

SEARCH BLOG: OIL

Take a look at the graphic along the right side of this page that shows the price of crude oil. [source]
If you point your cursor to the timeline for 1m 1q 1y 5y, you will see that crude oil prices have roughly quadrupled in 5 years... corresponding in time roughly to the war in Iraq.
You can argue all you want about peak oil, insurgencies, and global warming. The price of crude oil is showing the same pattern of increase that other boom/busts have displayed.

For example, housing prices:


[source]
We know where those have gone....

Dot coms
:


Vaporware!

I don't have the price chart from the Dutch tulip bulb price crash in the 17th century, but it worked on the same principle. Whenever the price of one product/resource/commodity escalates too quickly, there will be a subsequent correction.
You can argue that oil is different because there are no alternatives. I point you to the 1980s. This sure looks a lot like 1979-80.



I know, it's different this time. It's always different each time a market gets manipulated and out of kilter.

There are always alternatives... and at the current price of crude oil, they are cheaper.


Of course, Nancy will do her best to see that only her agenda of a government-controlled alternative happens. Carbon credits anyone? Command economy anyone?

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