Yesterday, Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr. at Climate Science posted this:
..However, as I read your reply below, you are convinced that the climate will continue to warm from the greenhouse gases. Yet the lack of warming in recent years by several measures (upper ocean heat content, lower tropospheric temperatures), and the at best muted positive feedback from the water vapor feedback, indicates that we know quite a bit less on global warming than you indicate.
Models View of CO2 "Blanket"
Make the blanket thicker and you get hotter.I agree the warming could resume (due to the diversity of positive climate forcings of which CO2 is up to 30% in a global average) but the lack of recent agreement between the models and the observations raises questions on whether negative feedbacks and negative climate forcings could actually result in cooling, at least for a period of time. After all the IPCC SPM admits that they left off climate forcings with a low level of scientific understanding.
With respect to added CO2, I am becoming convinced that its effect (threat?) is more from alterations in ocean and land biogeochemistry. rather than its radiative heating. I am also convinced (and have published on this as well) that the more heterogenous climate forcings (due to aerosols and land use/land cover) have a much greater impact on climate through alterations in atmospheric and ocean circulations than do the well-mixed greenhouse gases.
Forcings View of CO2 "Blanket"
There are other factors that affect overall warmth.
Some of those factors [forcings] can be quite negative
(such as reduced solar activity).
Models don't account for observed changes successfully.
