Friday, December 19, 2008

Overcorrection?

SEARCH BLOG: OIL


In normal times, this might be seen as an "over-correction"... but what's normal about now?
Okay, but what was "real" in the last decade?
  • Tech bubble
  • Housing bubble
  • Energy bubble
  • Stocks bubble
  • China's bubble
Let me suggest that maybe the last one was less of a "bubble" and more of a transfer of wealth from the U.S. and Europe to China. It was a transfer based on moving value-added functions to China in exchange for IOUs. Ironically, the result of all of this is that the dollar is devalued and China is stuck with phony money... well highly discounted money.

Still given where the various world's economies stand now... and the propensity of the U.S. government to focus on getting the financial manipulation system back in high gear... when the world's economies do get back in gear... any gear besides reverse... China stands to move forward while the U.S. stands to stand still.
After all, if our government is going to focus on CO2 cap and scam, as well as a new New Deal, we can be assured that future energy production and manufacturing will stay in reverse.
So, for now, $34 per barrel oil is not an over-correction as much as economic "payback"... along with a lot of other paybacks.

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