President Obama's give-and-take speech in Cairo brought to mind a situation that somewhat parallels the Israeli-Palestinian issues... the partitioning of British India into India, West Pakistan and East Pakistan plus additional territories to the east. The portion of Pakistan known as East Pakistan split politically from West Pakistan to form Bangladesh. It was geographically untenable to have one political entity split by a hostile nation, India. [maps source]
When one looks at Israel and Palestinian-occupied territories, there is a very similar situation that is unlikely to be the solution in President Obama's speech. The Golan Heights is likely to become part of Syria in any long-term solution... or perhaps split in half to provide Israel some security from bombardment from that vantage point. The West Bank may serve as a general geography for any future Palestine, but there may be some territorial cessession to Israel to swing that deal. Finally, the Gaza Strip is wholly untenable as part of a new Palestine. It is isolated between two forces that have little love for a Palestinian presence: Israel and Egypt. [map source]It is likely that Gaza will have to become part of Israel and that the present occupants will have to be resettled into the West Bank or agree to Israeli rule. Israel would probably prefer that the Palestinians in Gaza move out. There may be a remote possibility that an agreement can be worked out with Egypt to create a "neutral zone" administered by Egypt with Israeli military rights.
The Golan Heights will probably remain as Israeli-occupied and a separate agreement worked out at some future point when Arab and Iranian actions show Israel that any agreement can be trusted. This would include a repudiation of the "destruction of Israel" mantra by the Palestinians and Iranians.
All of this would require significant "give and take." And even if all of this happened, any subsequent attacks on Israel from Palestine or any other Middle East country would be sure to dramatically change the political geography again.
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