Economists probably have a great reason for economic recovery while employment continues to decline:
- Rebuilding inventories
- Anticipation of future demand
- Government stimulus
- Hope
By the way, The Wall Street Journal cited better earnings at UPS:"There is going to be a lot less demand for goods and services, and Corporate America is still adjusting to that. A lot of these jobs are not coming back for a long time," he said. "People don't have as much credit available and they are not going to spend as much."
Along those lines, UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) announced Friday that it was cutting 1,800 jobs.
"Looking into the future through my cloudy crystal ball, you have to wonder where the job growth is going to come from. No sector is really poised for dramatic job gains," said John Norris, managing director of wealth management with Oakworth Capital Bank in Birmingham, Ala.
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It seems like there may be some hedging of bets going on in the corporate sector. Sort of "things are improving, but maybe not."United Parcel Service Inc. raised its earnings guidance Friday but said it will cut 1,800 jobs and that it still expects a gradual economic recovery.
The package shipper cited cost savings and a better-than-expected domestic and international performance for the increase in fourth-quarter expectations.
UPS is viewed as a key barometer for global trade activity, and the new guidance follows a late surge in shipping as retailers and manufacturers restocked ahead of the 2009 holiday season. Manufacturing orders also have been trending higher in recent weeks, and other transport indicators such as rail carloads have seen year-on-year improvements.