Monday, August 09, 2010

The Illusion Of Economic Recovery

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

The economy is not responding according to the optimistic predictions of economists.  Some are even getting a little worried.
Last week's new economics data were a mixed bag. But on balance I'd have to say I'm more discouraged than when the week began. ...
The most recent inference of that series, however, can be heavily influenced by the latest data, and it would be a mistake to make too much out of the most very recent values. ...
But it would also be a mistake to say that everything is going just fine.  Dr. James Hamilton - Econbrowser
The economy was supposed to be in full recovery mode by now. Joe Biden said so. Okay, that's unfair. There are signs of an economy that is no longer falling. Actually, I would venture to say that there are signs of an economy that has adjusted to functioning at a lower level based on building an increasing debt base versus GDP. Of course, that is untenable for a longer period of time, but it provides temporary stability.

Just put these two posts together and you'll get some idea why Dr. Hamilton might be concerned.
Dr. Hamilton refers to the economy as "sputtering."  I'd call it foundering.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

..