Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Florida GOP Primary Results Versus Predictions

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Now that the Florida GOP primary results are in and, no surprise, Mitt Romney was the winner, let's look at prognostications versus performance.

Actual results via Google search:

Now here are the predictions as shown here yesterday: 

Public Policy Poll claiming Highly Accurate Polling Across The Country:


Dead on for Gingrich, but significantly missed for Romney

NBC Marist Poll claiming Romney up 15 over Gingrich in Florida:


Dead on for the spread, but off by 4-5 percentage points

Rasmussen Poll claiming Romney 44%, Gingrich 28%: 


Dead on for the spread; almost dead on for the percentages

If results matter in polls, the Rasmussen poll was considerably better than the others.  It may be due to their methodology that surveys likely voters rather than man-on-the-street.

Opinions are nice; voting is better.

2012 IS HERE

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