Monday, June 22, 2009

Tell Me It's True, Please!


The Detroit Free Press ran this [click image for larger view]:

Of course, with the recent 10-year cooling trend, we all understand that the government report was based on a late 1990s anomaly and that this is nothing more than science fiction. The Great Lakes levels have been rising from record snowfall and rain while the temperatures have been falling. And there is evidence that some of the decline in the Great Lakes levels prior to 2000 has been due to a variety of causes... but that, overall, water levels have stabilized.

The government researchers found the difference in elevation between Lakes Michigan-Huron and Erie had narrowed by about 9 inches between 1962 and 2006.

One reason was the ice jam of 1984, which deepened the channel by scraping the bottom and boosting water flow rates, boosting erosion. That caused the temporary increase in outflow to Lake Erie, which lasted three to four years before the two lakes leveled off, said Jim Bruce, a Canadian member of the study team.

Other factors affecting Michigan-Huron levels include changes in climate patterns and rebound of the earth's crust from glacial melting 10,000 years ago, which slowly is altering land levels in the region, the government study showed.

It said there had been no significant erosion of the St. Clair River bed since at least 2000.

As I said a few days ago:
Still, there is hope for the alarmists as record temperatures have been recorded in Hawaii. The story is reported by Anthony Watts. If the weather won't cooperate, there are other ways to heat things up.
In a 196-page report filed by the Obama administration on Tuesday, it was detailed that global warming is bigger and badder than ever before.
Yeah, and he wants to sell you a bridge in Brooklyn named Cap and Trade.

Here in southeastern Michigan we can only hope for some of that fictitious man-made global warming. We'll need it when the coal-fired power plants shut down and the natural gas supplies dwindle. Otherwise, if we have to rely on the naturally-occurring climate oscillations [we're on a downslope now], we're going to have to wait way beyond 2099 to enjoy that warmer weather.
2099! Geez, I thought that was 2019! Well, no one is going to remember that farcical prediction by then. All they'll remember is that we did a lot of stupid, counter-productive, economy-destroying stuff at the beginning of the century. Well, maybe summer will be nicer. Spring was a bust.
Meanwhile, Anthony Watts reports that even if the projection were remotely realistic in 2008, it is no longer relevant:


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CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates


SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
[Image from:]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)