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Monday, June 29, 2009

Renewable Energy Mandate - Hurdles and Costs

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE BILL

From the U.S. House of Representatives climate bill:

Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) to establish a combined efficiency and renewable electricity standard that
requires utilities to supply an increasing percentage of their demand from a combination of energy efficiency savings and renewable energy (6% in 2012, 9.5% in 2014, 13% in 2016, 16.5% in 2018, and 20% in 2021-2039).
March is typically the lowest point in electric power production in the U.S. [heating requirements drop dramatically and cooling requirements are low]. It is also the month where coal-powered electricity is at its minimum [because there is no need for as much power generation] and "other renewables" [excludes hydroelectric and misc.] are at the maximum [because they produce whether needed or not]. data source

The recession has made an impact on overall electric power production dropping about 3 - 4% versus prior years. Coal, a flexible source for production has shown a significant reduction... absorbing most of the overall March YTD-to-March YTD reduction.
Wind, solar, and other renewables such as wood and garbage have increased output during this period... at a rate of about 1,800 megawatthours per year or 1/2 of 1% of the total needs at the low point of each year.
Let's presume that the economy stabilizes at about 320,000 thousand megawatthours .
In order to reach 6% of the low point total, other renewables would have to generate 19,200 thousand megawatthours in 2.5 years. That's an increase of 7,000 thousand megawatthours ... or an annual increase rate of 2,800 thousand megawatthours... just under 56% higher rate of increase than present.
With a big push, that is achievable.

But now let's look at the big picture. Annual [not just March YTD minimum] power sources are shown below [thousands of megawatts]:


 Coal Other Renewable Total
2005 2,012,873 87,329 4,055,423
2006 1,990,511 96,525 4,064,702
2007 2,016,456 105,238 4,156,745
2008 1,994,385 123,603 4,110,259

"Other Renewable" sources have grown at just under 20,000 total megawatthours per year and accounted for 3%... not 3.9%, which is the March YTD low-point requirement number... of total production.
  • If we presume, through efficiency, that growing demand can be offset by higher efficiency and that the total annual requirements stay at 4,100,000 thousand megawatthours in the coming years [big presumption], then "other renewables" will have to double output in under three years.
  • Furthermore, output will have to increase seven-fold in a decade... again presuming no additional total requirements which may be problematic if we are going to a "plug-in" transportation system.
Given the high cost and unreliability of these "other renewables," President Obama is correct when he predicts that your electric power costs are going to skyrocket. In addition, look for the view to change significantly... which may not please all of those Cape Cod Democrats.

THE RENEWABLE FORESTS OF THE FUTURE

THE RENEWABLE PRAIRIES OF THE FUTURE

We can all go out for scenic drives in our plug-in mini-cars and view what The Obama hath wrought with his mighty hammer of hope and change.

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CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)