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Showing posts with label Social Security. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Social Security. Show all posts

Monday, March 29, 2010

Blue Cross Plans

SEARCH BLOG: HEALTH CARE

Today I plan to attend a seminar on a new Blue Cross Blue Shield offering for Michigan. The situation in this state is a little unsettled with regard to this non-profit insurer because BCBS has been seeking considerable rate increase to cover not only the non-profit aspect of their business, but the real losses as well.

It ought to be interesting. Insurance coverage is every imaginable variety of fruit, so comparing apples to oranges is the easy part. I'm hoping to gain some insight about this offering and I'll be joined by several others who volunteer their time providing assistance to seniors in matters related to Medicare supplemental insurance.

I'll pass along anything that might be useful. For those of you who are 65 or older, you can see a site these volunteers have pulled together here. I'm certain there will be many changes appearing there over the course of this year as the health care legislation "features" are identified and understood... and the impact on seniors becomes more apparent.

The most likely impact on seniors over the next decade will be higher Medicare premiums along with higher supplemental insurance premiums [if available]. The recently passed "re-forming" health care legislation did little except add more entitlements to the system. It is time to take a serious look at the alternative proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

He understands that having the government re-form health care is like having the Mafia re-form police departments. The government, as the Mafia, are simply organizations that channel useful funds away from the ordinary citizen.

UPDATE:

BCBS did present materials about a new "Medicare Plus Blue PPO" and a new "MyBlue Medigap" along with some explanations about how they vary and how they treat such important considerations as coverage [must use network doctors versus any doctor] and deductibles [low to high]. It was quite useful, but I walked away with the thought that buying supplemental Medicare insurance was a lot like buying a new car:

  • narrow down the brands buy some objective or subjective parameters
  • narrow down the type of vehicle
  • narrow down the trim level and options
  • compare the bottom line price to the vehicle and features you want
  • figure out your finances
  • hope for the best
Our group stayed after the seminar was concluded to meet with a BCBSM representative and we are going to pursue a process whereby we will receive updates on all products and feedback on our website regarding the BCBSM information to ensure accuracy and currency.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Sunday, September 13, 2009

Social Security Alternative

SEARCH BLOG: SOCIAL SECURITY

Not quite two years ago, I wrote about Social Security funding. I concluded that:

The simple solution:

  • Increase the early eligibility age from 62 to 66 and the full retirement benefits age from the current 67 to 70.
  • Make mandatory retirement illegal before age 72 to ensure no one is forced to leave a job before retirement benefits are available
  • Require legal residence/citizenship for eligibility
The reasons this would work:
  • The funding problem is an actuarial issue, not a cash input one
  • Eligibility has been expanded beyond manageable limits or reasonable limits
This would place any hardship on the aging population as opposed to those who receive benefits from ancillary programs attached to Social Security. Those could and should be reviewed separately.
Just one other thought: delaying the time that social security benefits are available would serve as an incentive to 1) delay starting a working career to 2) become skilled/educated in something that they really want to do for a long time or 3) move to a country that offers nationalized everything like Britain (where you are granted all kinds of benefits, but you have to pull your own teeth to get them).
UPDATED SECTION: There is another way to address Social Security funding. By law, we all have to pay 6.2% [12.4% if self-employed] of gross income, up to a varying amount each year, into Social Security plus 2.9% of an unlimited amount into Medicare. Then, whether you need it or not, you start getting it beginning as early as 62-years old. But over 40 or 45 years of paying into the system, the government has gotten quite a chunk of change from you.
For example, for someone earning the $106,800 in 2009 -- $106,800 x 12.4% which is $13,243.20 plus 2.9% of $106,800 which is $3,079.80 ... a grand total of $16,320.00... exclusive of income tax. For someone earning $2 million a year, they contribute $58,000 PER YEAR just toward Medicare.

At the current rate and current maximum [which won't stay the same, by the way] a person earning $106,800+ would pay $529,728 just toward the Social Security amount in 40 years... not counting the investment value of that amount which would take the total to well into 7 figures! [at just 4% annual compounding over 40 years that would be $1,372,360]
Change the tax code so that you can elect to forego receiving social security payments... but in return the federal government will forego taxes on all pension and investment income received after the age of 67. This tax relief would also apply to spouses and heirs if they receive any part of your pension and investments upon your death.

In essence, you get nothing from the government from all of the payments made by you and your employer... and you give nothing to the government once you have achieve the age of full Social Security benefits.

Fair is fair.
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Monday, August 10, 2009

Everything About The U.S. House Health Care Bill

SEARCH BLOG: HEALTH CARE

Page one of the 1,018-page House Health Care bill:

Let's start by looking at the statement of the bill's mission:

  • To provide affordable, quality health care for all Americans...

    The implication is that health care is not affordable and of poor quality for some Americans so it is unsatisfactory for most Americans.

  • ...and reduce the growth in health care spending,...

    The presumption is that the growth in health care spending is unreasonable when compared with, say, the cost of purchasing a new automobile or cell phone service. There is no examination of what those costs are covering... which may be significantly better diagnosis and treatment than was available just a few years ago.

    The chart below [click on image for larger size] shows the annual versus cumulative projected deficit for the implementation of this bill [original from The Wall Street Journal and here]



  • and for other purposes.

    Now, that is clearly vague and leads to a certain paranoia among those who may have a basic distrust of the government's ability to manage a health care system... like the Veteran's Administration, for example... or mandate-driven Medicaid programs that are crippling states' budgets.
Page 4 [below] begins the Definition section [note that leading numbers are line indicators by page] and a clear reason why Rep. John Conyers (D - Detroit) said that he was not going to attempt to read the bill. It is also a clear example of attempting to write all related regulations within a general bill rather than laying out a clear, concise scope and limitation. Just look at the territory covered in this 1018 page piece of legislation as shown in the Table of Contents.

This is a clear example of legislators not listening to their constituents, not being part of the drafting of a bill, and not being capable of understanding the contents and nature of the bill that will force a significant change on our society, increase the total cost of health care, reduce the personal freedom of Americans, and create a huge governmental bureaucracy... where all those "health care" jobs are going to be.

The following is basically a preamble to the legislation. You can read the full bill here. Good luck with that, but it's everything you want to know. Just get yourself at least two top-notch lawyers to interpret it for you.

One other thing, by the way, among the contentious issues is concerning providing health care to illegal aliens. One side says they will be covered; the other side says not. Here is the wording:
SEC. 246. NO FEDERAL PAYMENT FOR UNDOCUMENTED
4 ALIENS.
5 Nothing in this subtitle shall allow Federal payments
6 for affordability credits on behalf of individuals who are
7 not lawfully present in the United States.
Okay, that's clearly ambiguous. They can't get affordability credits, but does that imply they can get coverage... just not some credits? See the problem? And since the program will be run at a deficit or covered by tax increases on law-abiding taxpayers, isn't that a subsidy for illegal aliens?

Here is the start of the bill text beginning at page 4:
1 DIVISION A—AFFORDABLE
2 HEALTH CARE CHOICES
3 SEC. 100. PURPOSE; TABLE OF CONTENTS OF DIVISION;
4 GENERAL DEFINITIONS.
5 (a) PURPOSE.—
6 (1) IN GENERAL.—The purpose of this division
7 is to provide affordable, quality health care for all
8 Americans and reduce the growth in health care
9 spending.
10 (2) BUILDING ON CURRENT SYSTEM.—This di11
vision achieves this purpose by building on what
1 works in today’s health care system, while repairing
2 the aspects that are broken.
3 (3) INSURANCE REFORMS.—This division—
4 (A) enacts strong insurance market re5
forms;
6 (B) creates a new Health Insurance Ex7
change, with a public health insurance option
8 alongside private plans;
9 (C) includes sliding scale affordability
10 credits; and
11 (D) initiates shared responsibility among
12 workers, employers, and the government;
13 so that all Americans have coverage of essential
14 health benefits.
15 (4) HEALTH DELIVERY REFORM.—This division
16 institutes health delivery system reforms both to in
17 crease quality and to reduce growth in health spend
18 ing so that health care becomes more affordable for
19 businesses, families, and government.
20 (b) TABLE OF CONTENTS OF DIVISION.—The table
21 of contents of this division is as follows:
Sec. 100. Purpose; table of contents of division; general definitions.
TITLE I—PROTECTIONS AND STANDARDS FOR QUALIFIED
HEALTH BENEFITS PLANS
Subtitle A—General Standards
Sec. 101. Requirements reforming health insurance marketplace.
Sec. 102. Protecting the choice to keep current coverage.
Subtitle B—Standards Guaranteeing Access to Affordable Coverage
Sec. 111. Prohibiting pre-existing condition exclusions.
Sec. 112. Guaranteed issue and renewal for insured plans.
Sec. 113. Insurance rating rules.
Sec. 114. Nondiscrimination in benefits; parity in mental health and substance
abuse disorder benefits.
Sec. 115. Ensuring adequacy of provider networks.
Sec. 116. Ensuring value and lower premiums.
Subtitle C—Standards Guaranteeing Access to Essential Benefits
Sec. 121. Coverage of essential benefits package.
Sec. 122. Essential benefits package defined.
Sec. 123. Health Benefits Advisory Committee.
Sec. 124. Process for adoption of recommendations; adoption of benefit standards.
Subtitle D—Additional Consumer Protections
Sec. 131. Requiring fair marketing practices by health insurers.
Sec. 132. Requiring fair grievance and appeals mechanisms.
Sec. 133. Requiring information transparency and plan disclosure.
Sec. 134. Application to qualified health benefits plans not offered through the
Health Insurance Exchange.
Sec. 135. Timely payment of claims.
Sec. 136. Standardized rules for coordination and subrogation of benefits.
Sec. 137. Application of administrative simplification.
Subtitle E—Governance
Sec. 141. Health Choices Administration; Health Choices Commissioner.
Sec. 142. Duties and authority of Commissioner.
Sec. 143. Consultation and coordination.
Sec. 144. Health Insurance Ombudsman.
Subtitle F—Relation to Other Requirements; Miscellaneous
Sec. 151. Relation to other requirements.
Sec. 152. Prohibiting discrimination in health care.
Sec. 153. Whistleblower protection.
Sec. 154. Construction regarding collective bargaining.
Sec. 155. Severability.
Subtitle G—Early Investments
Sec. 161. Ensuring value and lower premiums.
Sec. 162. Ending health insurance rescission abuse.
Sec. 163. Administrative simplification.
Sec. 164. Reinsurance program for retirees.
TITLE II—HEALTH INSURANCE EXCHANGE AND RELATED
PROVISIONS
Subtitle A—Health Insurance Exchange
Sec. 201. Establishment of Health Insurance Exchange; outline of duties; definitions.
Sec. 202. Exchange-eligible individuals and employers.
Sec. 203. Benefits package levels.
Sec. 204. Contracts for the offering of Exchange-participating health benefits
plans.
Sec. 205. Outreach and enrollment of Exchange-eligible individuals and employers
in Exchange-participating health benefits plan.
Sec. 206. Other functions.
Sec. 207. Health Insurance Exchange Trust Fund.
Sec. 208. Optional operation of State-based health insurance exchanges.
Subtitle B—Public Health Insurance Option
Sec. 221. Establishment and administration of a public health insurance option
as an Exchange-qualified health benefits plan.
Sec. 222. Premiums and financing.
Sec. 223. Payment rates for items and services.
Sec. 224. Modernized payment initiatives and delivery system reform.
Sec. 225. Provider participation.
Sec. 226. Application of fraud and abuse provisions.
Subtitle C—Individual Affordability Credits
Sec. 241. Availability through Health Insurance Exchange.
Sec. 242. Affordable credit eligible individual.
Sec. 243. Affordable premium credit.
Sec. 244. Affordability cost-sharing credit.
Sec. 245. Income determinations.
Sec. 246. No Federal payment for undocumented aliens.
TITLE III—SHARED RESPONSIBILITY
Subtitle A—Individual Responsibility
Sec. 301. Individual responsibility.
Subtitle B—Employer Responsibility
PART 1—HEALTH COVERAGE PARTICIPATION REQUIREMENTS
Sec. 311. Health coverage participation requirements.
Sec. 312. Employer responsibility to contribute towards employee and dependent
coverage.
Sec. 313. Employer contributions in lieu of coverage.
Sec. 314. Authority related to improper steering.
PART 2—SATISFACTION OF HEALTH COVERAGE PARTICIPATION
REQUIREMENTS
Sec. 321. Satisfaction of health coverage participation requirements under the
Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.
Sec. 322. Satisfaction of health coverage participation requirements under the
Internal Revenue Code of 1986.
Sec. 323. Satisfaction of health coverage participation requirements under the
Public Health Service Act.
Sec. 324. Additional rules relating to health coverage participation requirements.
TITLE IV—AMENDMENTS TO INTERNAL REVENUE CODE OF 1986
Subtitle A—Shared Responsibility
PART 1—INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY
Sec. 401. Tax on individuals without acceptable health care coverage.
PART 2—EMPLOYER RESPONSIBILITY
Sec. 411. Election to satisfy health coverage participation requirements.
Sec. 412. Responsibilities of nonelecting employers.
Subtitle B—Credit for Small Business Employee Health Coverage Expenses
Sec. 421. Credit for small business employee health coverage expenses.
Subtitle C—Disclosures to Carry Out Health Insurance Exchange Subsidies
Sec. 431. Disclosures to carry out health insurance exchange subsidies.
Subtitle D—Other Revenue Provisions
PART 1—GENERAL PROVISIONS
Sec. 441. Surcharge on high income individuals.
Sec. 442. Delay in application of worldwide allocation of interest.
PART 2—PREVENTION OF TAX AVOIDANCE
Sec. 451. Limitation on treaty benefits for certain deductible payments.
Sec. 452. Codification of economic substance doctrine.
Sec. 453. Penalties for underpayments.
1 (c) GENERAL DEFINITIONS.—Except as otherwise
2 provided, in this division:
3 (1) ACCEPTABLE COVERAGE.—The term ‘‘ac4
ceptable coverage’’ has the meaning given such term
5 in section 202(d)(2).
6 (2) BASIC PLAN.—The term ‘‘basic plan’’ has
7 the meaning given such term in section 203(c).
8 (3) COMMISSIONER.—The term ‘‘Commis9
sioner’’ means the Health Choices Commissioner es10
tablished under section 141.
11 (4) COST-SHARING.—The term ‘‘cost-sharing’’
12 includes deductibles, coinsurance, copayments, and
1 similar charges but does not include premiums or
2 any network payment differential for covered serv3
ices or spending for non-covered services.
4 (5) DEPENDENT.—The term ‘‘dependent’’ has
5 the meaning given such term by the Commissioner
6 and includes a spouse.
7 (6) EMPLOYMENT-BASED HEALTH PLAN.—The
8 term ‘‘employment-based health plan’’—
9 (A) means a group health plan (as defined
10 in section 733(a)(1) of the Employee Retire11
ment Income Security Act of 1974); and
12 (B) includes such a plan that is the fol13
lowing:
14 (i) FEDERAL, STATE, AND TRIBAL
15 GOVERNMENTAL PLANS.—A governmental
16 plan (as defined in section 3(32) of the
17 Employee Retirement Income Security Act
18 of 1974), including a health benefits plan
19 offered under chapter 89 of title 5, United
20 States Code.
21 (ii) CHURCH PLANS.—A church plan
22 (as defined in section 3(33) of the Em23
ployee Retirement Income Security Act of
24 1974).
1 (7) ENHANCED PLAN.—The term ‘‘enhanced
2 plan’’ has the meaning given such term in section
3 203(c).
4 (8) ESSENTIAL BENEFITS PACKAGE.—The term
5 ‘‘essential benefits package’’ is defined in section
6 122(a).
7 (9) FAMILY.—The term ‘‘family’’ means an in8
dividual and includes the individual’s dependents.
9 (10) FEDERAL POVERTY LEVEL; FPL.—The
10 terms ‘‘Federal poverty level’’ and ‘‘FPL’’ have the
11 meaning given the term ‘‘poverty line’’ in section
12 673(2) of the Community Services Block Grant Act
13 (42 U.S.C. 9902(2)), including any revision required
14 by such section.
15 (11) HEALTH BENEFITS PLAN.—The terms
16 ‘‘health benefits plan’’ means health insurance cov17
erage and an employment-based health plan and in18
cludes the public health insurance option.
19 (12) HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE; HEALTH
20 INSURANCE ISSUER.—The terms ‘‘health insurance
21 coverage’’ and ‘‘health insurance issuer’’ have the
22 meanings given such terms in section 2791 of the
23 Public Health Service Act.
24 (13) HEALTH INSURANCE EXCHANGE.—The
25 term ‘‘Health Insurance Exchange’’ means the
1 Health Insurance Exchange established under sec2
tion 201.
3 (14) MEDICAID.—The term ‘‘Medicaid’’ means
4 a State plan under title XIX of the Social Security
5 Act (whether or not the plan is operating under a
6 waiver under section 1115 of such Act).
7 (15) MEDICARE.—The term ‘‘Medicare’’ means
8 the health insurance programs under title XVIII of
9 the Social Security Act.
10 (16) PLAN SPONSOR.—The term ‘‘plan spon11
sor’’ has the meaning given such term in section
12 3(16)(B) of the Employee Retirement Income Secu13
rity Act of 1974.
14 (17) PLAN YEAR.—The term ‘‘plan year’’
15 means—
16 (A) with respect to an employment-based
17 health plan, a plan year as specified under such
18 plan; or
19 (B) with respect to a health benefits plan
20 other than an employment-based health plan, a
21 12-month period as specified by the Commis22
sioner.
23 (18) PREMIUM PLAN; PREMIUM-PLUS PLAN.—
24 The terms ‘‘premium plan’’ and ‘‘premium-plus
1 plan’’ have the meanings given such terms in section
2 203(c).
3 (19) QHBP OFFERING ENTITY.—The terms
4 ‘‘QHBP offering entity’’ means, with respect to a
5 health benefits plan that is—
6 (A) a group health plan (as defined, sub7
ject to subsection (d), in section 733(a)(1) of
8 the Employee Retirement Income Security Act
9 of 1974), the plan sponsor in relation to such
10 group health plan, except that, in the case of a
11 plan maintained jointly by 1 or more employers
12 and 1 or more employee organizations and with
13 respect to which an employer is the primary
14 source of financing, such term means such em15
ployer;
16 (B) health insurance coverage, the health
17 insurance issuer offering the coverage;
18 (C) the public health insurance option, the
19 Secretary of Health and Human Services;
20 (D) a non-Federal governmental plan (as
21 defined in section 2791(d) of the Public Health
22 Service Act), the State or political subdivision
23 of a State (or agency or instrumentality of such
24 State or subdivision) which establishes or main25
tains such plan; or
1 (E) a Federal governmental plan (as de2
fined in section 2791(d) of the Public Health
3 Service Act), the appropriate Federal official.
4 (20) QUALIFIED HEALTH BENEFITS PLAN.—
5 The term ‘‘qualified health benefits plan’’ means a
6 health benefits plan that meets the requirements for
7 such a plan under title I and includes the public
8 health insurance option.
9 (21) PUBLIC HEALTH INSURANCE OPTION.—
10 The term ‘‘public health insurance option’’ means
11 the public health insurance option as provided under
12 subtitle B of title II.
13 (22) SERVICE AREA; PREMIUM RATING AREA.—
14 The terms ‘‘service area’’ and ‘‘premium rating
15 area’’ mean with respect to health insurance cov16
erage—
17 (A) offered other than through the Health
18 Insurance Exchange, such an area as estab19
lished by the QHBP offering entity of such cov20
erage in accordance with applicable State law;
21 and
22 (B) offered through the Health Insurance
23 Exchange, such an area as established by such
24 entity in accordance with applicable State law
1 and applicable rules of the Commissioner for
2 Exchange-participating health benefits plans.
3 (23) STATE.—The term ‘‘State’’ means the 50
4 States and the District of Columbia.
5 (24) STATE MEDICAID AGENCY.—The term
6 ‘‘State Medicaid agency’’ means, with respect to a
7 Medicaid plan, the single State agency responsible
8 for administering such plan under title XIX of the
9 Social Security Act.
10 (25) Y1, Y2, ETC..—The terms ‘‘Y1’’ , ‘‘Y2’’,
11 ‘‘Y3’’, ‘‘Y4’’, ‘‘Y5’’, and similar subsequently num12
bered terms, mean 2013 and subsequent years, re13
spectively.
14 TITLE I—PROTECTIONS AND
15 STANDARDS FOR QUALIFIED
16 HEALTH BENEFITS PLANS
17 Subtitle A—General Standards
and on and on and on before you get to the actual contents....

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Thursday, June 25, 2009

The Climate Shit Is About To Hit The Fan

SEARCH BLOG: ENVIRONMENT and POLITICS

President Obama and the Democratic Party Congress are about to embark on a path that will cost much more than the Manhattan Project, World War II, and placing a man on the moon combined. In return, the U.S. will see an enormous increase in the National Debt, a generally lower standard of living, significantly less product choices in the marketplace, higher overall taxes, and an overwhelming increase in government bureaucracy.

All of this based on the fiction that human-caused climate change is 1) happening, 2) caused from production of CO2, and 3) we can trust them; they are from the government.

H. R. 2757

To require the return to the American people of all proceeds raised under any Federal climate change legislation.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

June 8, 2009

Mr. KIND (for himself, Mr. REICHERT, Mr. LIPINSKI, and Mr. INGLIS) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Ways and Means

A BILL

To require the return to the American people of all proceeds raised under any Federal climate change legislation.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the ‘Consumer Assistance Rebate for Energy Act’.

SEC. 2. FINDINGS.

Congress finds the following:

(1) It has been well documented that the Earth’s temperature has steadily increased in recent decades and that human activity has contributed to a large degree to this increase.

(2) Changes in climate will have wide ranging effects on sea level, precipitation, wildfire, agriculture, ecosystem health and viability, wildlife habitat, and more.

(3) Congressional action to reduce national emissions of greenhouse gasses contributing to climate change is necessary and urgent.

(4) Such legislation will have impacts on consumers in the form of high prices for energy, transportation, and consumer goods.

(5) These impacts will fall most heavily on low-income and middle-income families who are least able to absorb price increases.

(6) A national program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should not impose a tax on the American people in order to fund other priorities.

SEC. 3. RETURN OF PROCEEDS.

Any Federal climate change legislation that is signed into law shall return to the American people all proceeds from the sale of allowances or credits, a tax or fee imposed on greenhouse gas emissions, or other means, through reductions in individual taxes, increases in social security or unemployment benefits, and other direct means.
So we have a scheme that works like this:
  1. Raise taxes
  2. Change the cost structure of the economy
  3. Redistribute money according to politically determined qualifications
Need further explanation?
  1. Raise taxes - Cap and Tax
  2. Change the cost structure - require electricity from high-cost, unreliable sources
  3. Redistribute money - give rebates to lower-income groups
Need the summary?
H.R. 2454: American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

To create clean energy jobs, achieve energy independence, reduce global warming pollution and transition to a clean energy economy.

5/15/2009--Introduced.
American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 - Amends the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) to establish a combined efficiency and renewable electricity standard that requires utilities to supply an increasing percentage of their demand from a combination of energy efficiency savings and renewable energy (6% in 2012, 9.5% in 2014, 13% in 2016, 16.5% in 2018, and 20% in 2021-2039). Provides for: (1) issuing, trading, banking, retiring, and verifying renewable electricity credits; and (2) prescribing standards to define and measure electricity savings from energy efficiency and energy conservation measures.

Amends the Clean Air Act (CAA) to require the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to: (1) set forth a national strategy to address barriers to the commercial-scale deployment of carbon capture and sequestration; (2) establish an approach to certify and permit geologic sequestration; and (3) promulgate regulations to minimize the risk of escape to the atmosphere of carbon dioxide injected for purposes of geological sequestration. Amends the Safe Drinking Water Act to require the Administrator to promulgate regulations for sequestration wells.

Sets forth: (1) a process to establish a Carbon Storage Research Corporation to collect assessments from distribution utilities of fossil fuel-based electricity delivered directly to consumers; and (2) performance standards for new coal-fired power plants.

Amends PURPA to provide for the development of electric vehicle infrastructure. Requires the Secretary of Energy (Secretary) to establish: (1) a large-scale vehicle electrification program; and (2) a program to provide financial assistance for the manufacture of plug-in electric drive vehicles. Requires the Administrator to establish a program under which a state may create a State Energy and Environment Development Account.

Sets forth provisions concerning the development of a smart grid, including provisions: (1) amending the Energy Policy and Conservation Act to provide for the inclusion of smart grid capability information on appliance energy guide labels; (2) requiring the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to support load-serving entities in developing their peak demand reduction goals; (3) amending the Energy Policy Act of 2005 to reauthorize the energy efficiency public information program and to include smart grid information in it; and (4) reauthorizing the energy efficient and smart appliance rebate program and revising it to include smart-grid features.

Amends the Federal Power Act to require FERC to adopt electricity grid planning principles derived from a federal policy (established by this Act) on electric grid planning that facilitates the deployment of renewable and other zero-carbon energy sources for generating electricity to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) while ensuring reliability, reducing congestion, ensuring cyber-security, and providing for cost-effective electricity services.

Amends the Energy Policy and Conservation Act to revise: (1) rules regarding improving energy efficiency in industrial equipment; (2) efficiency standards for electric motors; (3) conservation standards for lighting and appliances; and (4) the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products Other Than Automobiles.

Requires the Secretary to establish Clean Energy Innovation Centers to promote commercial deployment of clean, indigenous energy alternatives to fossil fuels, to reduce GHG emissions, and to ensure that the United States maintains a lead in developing and deploying state-of-the-art energy technologies.

Amends the Energy Conservation and Production Act to revise energy conservation standards for new buildings. Requires the Administrator to establish: (1) standards for a national energy and environmental building retrofit policy for residences; and (2) a building energy performance labeling program. Establishes a rebate program to assist low-income households residing in pre-1976 manufactured homes in purchasing new Energy Star qualified manufactured homes.

Requires the Secretary to establish a Best-in-Class Appliances Deployment Program.

Requires the President to use statutory authorities to set motor vehicle emissions standards. Amends the CAA to require the Administrator to promulgate standards applicable to GHG emissions from specified mobile sources, including heavy-duty vehicles and engines, new marine vessels, locomotives, and aircraft. Establishes within EPA a SmartWay Transport Program, a SmartWay Transport Partnership program, and a SmartWay Financing Program.

Requires the Secretary to establish a program to make monetary awards to encourage owners and operators of electric energy generation facilities or thermal energy production facilities using fossil or nuclear fuel to use innovative means of recovering any thermal energy that is a potentially useful byproduct of their processes to: (1) generate additional electric energy; or (2) make sales of thermal energy not used for electric generation, in the form of steam, hot water, chilled water, or desiccant regeneration, or for other commercially valid purposes.

Authorizes the Secretary to make grants to community development organizations to provide financing to businesses and projects that improve energy efficiency, develop alternative, renewable, and distributed energy supplies, provide technical assistance and promote job and business opportunities for low-income residents, and increase energy conservation in low income rural and urban communities.

Safe Climate Act - Amends the CAA to require the Administrator to promulgate regulations to: (1) cap and reduce GHG emissions, annually, so that GHG emissions from capped sources are reduced to 97% of 2005 levels by 2012, 83% by 2020, 58% by 2030, and 17% by 2050; and (2) establish a federal GHG registry.

Designates carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) from a chemical manufacturing process at an industrial stationary source, perfluorocarbons, and nitrogen trifluoride as GHGs and establishes a carbon dioxide equivalent value for each gas. Prohibits any person from manufacturing, introducing into interstate commerce, or emitting a significant quantity of certain fluorinated gas that is generated as a byproduct during the production or use of another fluorinated gas.

Requires the Administrator to establish specified emission allowances (annual tonnage limits) for: (1) each of 2012-2049; and (2) 2050 and thereafter. Provides for the establishment and distribution of compensatory allowances for the destruction and conversionary use of fluorinated gases and the nonemissive use of petroleum-based or coal-based liquid or gaseous fuel, petroleum coke, natural gas liquid, or natural gas as a feedstock.

Phases in prohibitions against covered entities (including electricity sources, fuel producers and importers, industrial gas producers and importers, geological sequestration sites, industrial stationary sources, industrial fossil fuel-fired combustion devices, natural gas local distribution companies, nitrogen trifluoride sources, algae-based fuels, and fugitive emissions) exceeding allowable emission levels. Requires covered entities to demonstrate compliance through: (1) holding emission allowances (including international emission or compensatory allowances) at least as great as attributable emissions (as specified); or (2) using offset credits. Sets forth penalties for noncompliance.

Provides for trading, banking and borrowing, auctioning, selling, exchanging, transferring, holding, or retiring emission allowances.

Requires the Administrator to: (1) establish a strategic reserve account and place into that account specified amounts (ranging from 1% to 3%) of the emission allowances for each of calendar years 2012-2050; and (2) auction such strategic reserve allowances once each quarter of each of such years.

Requires stationary sources subject to the CAA to have permits that require the covered entity to hold a number of emission allowances at least equal to the total annual amount of carbon dioxide equivalents for its combined emissions and attributable GHG emissions.

Authorizes the Administrator to designate an international climate change program as a qualifying international program for purposes of international emission allowances provisions, if certain conditions are met.

Establishes the Offsets Integrity Advisory Board. Requires the Administrator, considering the Board's recommendations, to promulgate regulations establishing a program for the issuance of offset credits.

Requires the Administrator to promulgate regulations concerning reducing GHG emissions from deforestation in developing countries.

Sets forth provisions governing the disposition of emission allowances, including specifying allocations: (1) for supplemental emissions reductions from reduced deforestation; (2) for the benefit of electricity, natural gas, and/or home heating oil and propane consumers; (3) for auction, with proceeds for the benefit of low income consumers and worker investment; (4) to energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries; (5) for the deployment of carbon capture and sequestration technology; (6) to invest in energy efficiency and renewable energy; (7) to be distributed to Clean Energy Innovation Centers; (8) to invest in the development and deployment of clean vehicles; (9) to domestic refiners; (10) for domestic and international adaptation; (11) for domestic wildlife and natural resource adaptation; and (12) for international clean technology deployment.

Requires the Administrator to auction off certain unused allowances and to deposit the proceeds for 2012-2025 into the Treasury and for 2026-2050 into the Climate Change Dividend Fund. Requires the President to distribute funds in the Consumer Climate Change Rebate Fund (established by this Act) to U.S. households.

Amends the CAA to require the Administrator to promulgate GHG emission performance standards for specified categories of stationary sources that: (1) have uncapped GHG emissions greater than 10,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent and are responsible for emitting at least 20% of the uncapped GHG gas emission annually; or (2) are responsible for at least 10% of the uncapped methane emissions.

Requires the Administrator to promulgate regulations to phase down the consumption of and regulate the production of HFCs. Specifies consumption allowances for: (1) each of 2012-2032; and (2) 2033 and thereafter. Provides for: (1) the distribution, auction, banking, exchange, and international transfer of such allowances; and (2) the issuance of offset credits for the destruction of chlorofluorocarbons. Establishes the Stratospheric Ozone and Climate Protection Fund, into which the Administrator shall deposit all proceeds from the sale of such allowances.

Requires the Administrator to promulgate regulations to reduce emissions of black carbon (light absorbing component of carbonaceous aerosols) or propose a finding that existing CAA regulations adequately regulate such emissions.

Prohibits states from implementing a cap and trade program that covers any capped emissions emitted during 2012-2017.

Amends the Federal Power Act to require FERC to promulgate regulations for the establishment, operation, and oversight of markets for regulated allowances. Requires the President to establish an interagency working group on carbon market oversight.

Amends the Commodity Exchange Act to provide for transactions in derivatives that involve energy commodities. Gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jurisdiction over the establishment, operations, and oversight of markets for regulated allowance derivatives.

Amends the CAA to require the Administrator to: (1) distribute emission allowance rebates to eligible industrial sectors (with eligibility based on specified energy, GHG, or trade intensity criteria); and (2) provide for the sale of and require submission of international reserve allowances by U.S. importers of products of industrial sectors that the President determines have suffered certain negative impacts from compliance with GHG emission requirements.

Sets forth provisions concerning green jobs and worker transition, including: (1) authorizing the Secretary of Education to award grants to eligible partnerships to develop programs of study focused on emerging careers and jobs in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and climate change mitigation; and (2) providing climate change adjustment assistance to adversely affected workers.

Amends the Internal Revenue Code to allow certain low income taxpayers a refundable energy tax credit to compensate such taxpayers for reductions in their purchasing power, as identified and calculated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), resulting from regulation of GHGs.

Requires: (1) the Administrator to implement the Energy Refund Program to give low-income households a monthly cash energy refund equal to the estimated loss in purchasing power resulting from this Act; (2) the Secretary of State to oversee distributions of allowances from the International Clean Technology Account; (3) the President to establish within the United States Global Change Research Program a National Climate Change Adaptation Program; (4) the Secretary of Commerce to establish within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) a National Climate Service; (5) the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) to publish a strategic action plan to assist health professionals in preparing for and responding to the impacts of climate change; (6) the President to develop a Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation Strategy; and (7) the Secretary of State to establish an International Climate Change Adaptation Program.
Next month: The Santa Claus Preservation Act

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Friday, June 12, 2009

Pay As You Go

SEARCH BLOG: TAXES

The following article appeared in the electronic version of the Detroit Free Press. It sounds good. Here's the catch: this doesn't mean a retreat from spending; it means an advance toward significantly higher taxes... probably to pay China for CO2 emissions.

Obama pushes pay-as-you-go system
Congress urged to save when it spends


By BEN FELLER

ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON — Presi­dent Barack Obama chal­lenged Congress on Tuesday to pay for new increases in federal benefit programs as it goes rather than sink the na­tion deeper into a debt, calling it a matter of public responsi­bility.

Republicans lashed back that Obama is no voice of fiscal restraint as the deficit soars.

The president’s plan would require Congress to pay for new entitlement spending, such as health care, by raising taxes or coming up with bud­get cuts — a so-called pay-as­-you- go system that would have the force of law. Under the proposal, if new spending or tax reductions are not off­set, there would be automatic cuts in so-called mandatory programs — although Social Security payments and some other programs would be ex­empt.

Not noted by the president: Tuesday’s plan is a watered­ down version of the so-called PAYGO rules proposed last month in his budget plan.

That version would have required, on average, all af­fected legislation to be paid for in the first year. The new plan only requires such legis­lation to be financed in the coming decade. That mirrors congressional rules and re­flects the likelihood that health care reform will add to the deficit in the early years.

Obama said the principle is simple: Congress can only spend a dollar if it saves a dol­lar somewhere else.

“It is no coincidence that this rule was in place when we moved from record deficits to record surpluses in the 1990s — and that when this rule was abandoned, we returned to record deficits that doubled the national debt,” Obama said, flanked at the White House by supportive Demo­cratic lawmakers.

PAYGO... TAX & SCAM... hope and change.

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Thursday, May 07, 2009

$17 Billion Not As Much As It Used To Be

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

Millions... billions... trillions. All of those "illions" are confusing because we normally don't deal with such large numbers. You hear a number like 500 million and that seems like a lot. And you hear 17 billion and that seems pretty big, too. And then someone talks about 1.94 trillion and that could be big, as well.

We don't process the fact that 17 billion is 34 times larger than 500 million. And we glaze over at the idea that 1.94 trillion is 114 times as much as 17 billion and 3,880 times as much as 500 million. That "1.94" kind of masks the issue.

So when President Obama talks about savings of $17 billion... which isn't chump change... we need to put that into perspective.

Image from CNN.com

The scary part is that the $1.94 trillion is halfway through the 2009 fiscal year. Hopefully, the rate of spending will decrease, but hoping that will change may not yield the change we hoped for.

There are more charts and data in the article below, but here is one to keep in mind as you plow through all of the rest. It's good perspective when you hear about how much the President is doing to control spending.

From CNN:
Obama will slice budget by $17 billion

White House will propose cutting or reducing funding for more than 100 federal programs in latest salvo in 2010 budget fight.

By Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer

chart_govt_spending.03.gif

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The White House on Thursday will detail a proposal to save $17 billion next year by eliminating or reducing 121 federal programs, according to a senior administration official.

Roughly $11.5 billion of the savings would come from the discretionary side of the fiscal 2010 budget -- that is, for programs whose funding is not automatic. And roughly half of the savings would come from non-defense programs, the official said Wednesday.

"In many cases we have multiple programs that do the same things," the official said in a briefing call with reporters. "Duplication can be the enemy of efficiency."

In other cases, the results of the targeted programs didn't justify the expense, the official said.

Among the programs on the president's chopping block:

  • A long-range navigation system now made obsolete by the GPS. Cost: $35 million.
  • An early education program called Even Start, the performance of which had been poor. Cost: $66 million.
  • A Department of Education attaché position in Paris. Cost: $632,000.
  • The Christopher Columbus Fellowship Foundation, which only pays out 20% of its funds in awards every year. Cost: $1 million.
  • A program that pays states to clean out abandoned mines even after the mines have been cleaned out. Cost: $142 million.

The proposed program eliminations and reductions will be part of the release Thursday of the president's 2010 budget request.

The cuts are likely to be the first of many to come, the official said. "This is an important step, but it's just the first step. We will continue to search for additional savings and efficiencies."

A few weeks ago, the president announced that he had asked his cabinet members to cut $100 million from their agencies' expenses, a number budget analysts characterized as symbolic at best.

Whether or not lawmakers adopt the president's recommended cuts is unclear. They are likely, however, to come up with their own cost-saving proposals. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., for instance, has given her House committee chairmen until June 2 to provide a list of ways they can reduce expenses.

Deficit on the horizon

Fiscal discipline is among the pillars of the new economic foundation Obama has said he wants to build.

But it was unclear Wednesday whether the $17 billion in savings in 2010 would be used to fund other federal programs or to reduce the country's growing deficit.

The House and Senate have agreed to amore than $3.5 trillion budget outline for fiscal 2010, which begins Oct. 1. That's roughly the size of the president's budget request. The proposals Congress and the president are making, however, would push long-term deficits significantly higher.

While few suggest the government retract its spending largesse while the economy is still struggling, deficit hawks caution that lawmakers must do more than pay lip service to the long-term debts situation.

Thanks to the financial crisis, tax receipts are down sharply this year while spending demands have grown to record levels. Forecasts of a slow recovery and estimates of a large price tag for Obama's proposed health care, energy and education initiatives have worsened somewhat the already tough fiscal outlook.

The Government Accountability Office estimates that all federal revenue will be eaten up by government costs for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and public debt interest by 2025. Last year, the estimate was 2030, said Charles Konigsberg, an expert on the federal budget at deficit watchdog group the Concord Coalition.

The official reiterated the administration's position that the biggest deficit-cutting efforts will come from curbing the growth in health care costs.

The White House budget office's cost-saving proposals are part of a two-stage release on the final details of Obama's budget request. Next week, the OMB will release more analysis on the country's fiscal policies, along with "minor updates and changes" to the administration's summary tables of budget forecasts, first put out in February.


Thursday, April 30, 2009

Wall Street Says Bad News Is Good News

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

As reported in The New York Times, bad news was treated as good news by Wall Street.

U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter of Steep Decline

Published: April 29, 2009

The economy contracted sharply in the first quarter of the year as businesses scaled back on investments and cut their stockpiles of unsold goods, the government reported on Wednesday. But the numbers suggested that the worst of the recession may be fading as the government’s stimulus filters into the economy.

Let me put my 2 cents in with Wall Street's billions since yesterday's trading seems to reinforce that perspective.

  • This recession will not be ended by housing construction... not with the glut of foreclosed homes available and the stockpile of owned homes with people anxious to sell.
  • This recession will not be ended by manufacturing which is in desperate shape with the effects of the auto industry blasting through the suppliers and related industries.
  • This recession will not be ended by social security recipients super-charging the economy with their $250 stimulus checks.
  • This recession will not be ended by the new intellectual-property based economy which is easily copied and usually is.
  • This recession will not be ended by the new "green" economy which will create more job losses in traditional energy resource suppliers that will be saddled with onerous taxes.
From what I can see, this recession will be over when Pres. Obama declares it to be over and he can focus on saving the planet and hugging those who detest the U.S. Or it will simply end gradually as the financial adjustments millions of individuals have made allow them to resume a more "normal" life... with a lot less savings.

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Monday, November 10, 2008

Urban Legend - Dems Hold Hearings ...Target 401K Accounts

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

The urban legends about Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are already beginning to circulate. For example:

The Carolina Journal and LGF reported:

Democrats in the U.S. House have been conducting hearings on proposals to confiscate workers’ personal retirement accounts — including 401(k)s and IRAs — and convert them to accounts managed by the Social Security Administration.

Triggered by the financial crisis the past two months, the hearings reportedly were meant to stem losses incurred by many workers and retirees whose 401(k) and IRA balances have been shrinking rapidly.

The testimony of Teresa Ghilarducci, professor of economic policy analysis at the New School for Social Research in New York, in hearings Oct. 7 drew the most attention and criticism. Testifying for the House Committee on Education and Labor, Ghilarducci proposed that the government eliminate tax breaks for 401(k) and similar retirement accounts, such as IRAs, and confiscate workers’ retirement plan accounts and convert them to universal Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRAs) managed by the Social Security Administration. [HT]
We all know, after listening to his speeches, that Barack Obama wants to work for you. The notion that the government under President Obama would even consider confiscating your hard-earned and scrupulously saved retirement nest-egg is absurd. President Obama will work to lift us all up. He would not simply take away our futures. He would not make us all beholden to the government for handouts.

And the New School for Social Research??? What's that supposed to be... a joke?

This is obviously some right-wing claptrap. There is no such person as Teresa Ghilarducci, professor of economic policy analysis at the New School for Social Research in New York.

I bet this will be traced to Sarah Palin.

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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

A Different Welfare For Detroit

SEARCH BLOG: AUTOMOBILES

Yesterday, The Washington Post ran an editorial titled "Welfare For Detroit."

AFTER YEARS of decline, U.S. auto companies face the double whammy of a credit crisis and a recession. Car and truck sales fell 26.6 percent in September, the first month since 1993 in which fewer than 1 million vehicles moved off the lots. General Motors, threatened with bankruptcy and burning through $1 billion in cash reserves per month, is groping for a merger with Chrysler. Ford's stock is down more than 70 percent in the past year, and investor Kirk Kerkorian is dumping his shares.

The $25 billion federal loan approved by Congress on Sept. 25 may not reach Detroit for six to 18 months because of red tape. So Detroit's allies are pushing for waivers of the usual rules and, perhaps, another $25 billion before the end of the year. And why not? Everyone else seems to be getting a bailout these days. Hundreds of thousands of people depend on Detroit for their jobs, directly or indirectly.

Well, we can think of several objections. First, there is the question of whether the U.S. government should be picking winners and losers in a business such as this. It's one thing to bail out the financial sector, whose product -- credit -- is essentially fungible and on which all other businesses depend. Automobiles, however, are not interchangeable, and Congress can't substitute its specific technological and aesthetic preferences for those of the market. What if we lend Detroit $25 billion and still nobody buys its cars?

Second, this bailout taxes the less well-off to protect the relatively privileged. The average individual General Motors production worker, whose job would be saved by the bailout, makes $56,650 per year, according to the Center for Automotive Research, and that doesn't count better-paid, white-collar types. Meanwhile, half of all households-- which typically include more than one earner -- make less than $50,000 per year. Where's the justice in that?

Congress approved $7,500 tax credits for purchasers of GM's much-touted plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt, built to run 40 miles on a single electric charge. That would knock the net cost of the four-seat Volt, due out in late 2010, down to $32,500 -- not much less than a basic Cadillac CTS costs now. Even then, it could take a decade of Volt driving to recoup the difference in purchase prices between it and the far cheaper Toyota Prius. Assuming a few well-heeled drivers take that deal, why should poorer people be taxed to enable them?

The downfall of the American auto industry is indeed a tragedy. But the automakers and the United Auto Workers have only themselves to blame for much of it. For years, they pursued protectionism against foreign competitors rather than tackle them head-on. The automakers say that they need $25 billion from Congress to offset the additional costs of tough new fuel-efficiency standards. Perhaps they wouldn't be in that situation if they had accepted such standards a long time ago and retooled to meet them, rather than persisting in the more familiar, and profitable, business of making gas guzzlers.

We would all have been better off if the federal government had enacted a higher gas tax so that the Big Three could have planned production on that basis. A stiffer gas tax, rebatable in some form to consumers, would still be the best way to guarantee a long-term shift to more economical cars. Alas, there's a limit to how much taxpayers can spend ensuring that such cars get built in Detroit.
I couldn't resist commenting:
Toyota and Honda, the largest competitors for Detroit automakers, have enjoyed a protected home territory and continue to do so. This has allowed them to develop and sell a variety of vehicles that, until the recent gas price increases, were only niche products in the U.S. In fact, because Japan was a market virtually closed to U.S. manufacturers, Toyota, Honda, and a variety of other Japanese manufacturers used the Japanese buyers to subsidize their sales in the U.S. You might note the same thing is happening with the Korean manufacturers.

In fact, Toyota spent large sums to develop full-sized trucks and SUVs to compete in the U.S. market because that was where the demand and profits were.

The U.S. companies had a variety of small vehicles that couldn't be given away... and were subsidized by the profits from the larger vehicles that were in demand by the public. It is interesting that the Ford Focus, which was one of those vehicles that couldn't be sold profitably, has become a big seller for that company... and at a profit. Does that make Ford execs geniuses for keeping a dud around for so many years?

The combination of an artificial gas price bubble [which is correcting], credit availability, and onerous government mandates for the next ten years, have turned economic "engines" for the U.S. economy into stalled scrap.

So, while the U.S. manufacturers are not blameless, you might recognize the complicity of the U.S. and foreign governments in this situation. You might also recognize the the U.S. manufacturers are both successful and profitable in most other global markets. You might also recognize that U.S. vehicle quality... particularly Ford... is virtually the same as Toyota's.
I noticed this comment received more "recommendations" than the others... except this one which received the same number.
"We would all have been better off if the federal government had enacted a higher gas tax so that the Big Three could have planned production on that basis. A stiffer gas tax, rebatable in some form to consumers, would still be the best way to guarantee a long-term shift to more economical cars."

I agree with one exception. REBATABLE. My suggestion has been that the money raised from an increasing gasoline tax go one third to repair and expansion of our infrastructure, one third to health care and one third to social security.

Is there a politician in the country with the cajones to even discuss raising the gas tax? Al Gore said we should talk about it and he got hammered. Six months ago would have been a very bad time to add a quarter or so to gas prices but the post election "new found courage period" would be perfect.

Finally all the tricky ways the politicians use to lead buyers to hybrids and electrics are ill focused. It is not the purchase of cars that consumes energy. It is the USE of the car. In the DAILY DECISION to drive the car or take the train, it is the cost of the USE of the car that is critical. This is best effected through higher FUEL cost. The taxation system is in place. No new bureaucracies are needed.
No, politicians won't do anything for which they can be blamed if they can blame the automobile manufacturers instead. As I wrote earlier this year:
Now that it is obvious to everyone that the government has no intention of letting market forces act as the agent of change, it is time for the government to quit pussy-footing around and do what is done in Europe: add taxes of $3 or more per gallon of gasoline. At that point, all other government actions... mileage and CO2 regulations, restrictions on drilling for oil, and subsidies for alternative fuels... will be moot and can be eliminated because the cost of implementing the government's policies will be borne directly by consumers without the government being able to divert attention and blame to vehicle manufacturers and oil companies.

... that would be a blow to politicians who would have to stand up to their constituents and explain why the government has to be involved at all in the marketplace. It would also create issues with regard to why many other taxes would have to remain in force [and the supporting bureaucracies]. It would also highlight issues with regard to the plethora of regulations that create additional costs for manufacturers and consumers.
I absolutely feel the economic manipulation by the government in the name of important causes is the cause of so many ridiculous problems and misguided fixes... including Detroit automakers current and future problems. So, while the second commenter's arguements are logical they are not reasonable.

ADDENDUM

An indication of how "protected the Japanese market is....

(RTTNews) - The sale of foreign auto makers cars, trucks and buses in Japan dropped 5.5 percent in August from the year before.


The Japan Automobile Importers Association says weaker sales of Volkswagen and BMW autos offset a rise in sales by Mercedes-Benz.


Sales of imported vehicles by foreign car makers totaled 14,406 in August [about 168,000 annually], down from 15,249 in the same month last year. Among the top three foreign brands by sales volume, Volkswagen saw sales drop by 1.5 percent on the year and BMW sales fell 21.3 percent. Mercedes Benz saw an increase of 3.3 percent.


Ford posted the largest drop among the top 10 foreign brands, falling 28.1 percent on the year.


For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com


Copyright(c) 2007 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Meanwhile, Toyota and Honda, excluding other Japanese brands, sold over 240,000 vehicles... in the month of September, 2008.
So contrary to the Washington Post's assertion that U.S. manufacturers got "protection," The U.S. market is wide open.
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Friday, August 29, 2008

The Illusion Of Obama

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

The stadium filled with chanting masses. The new leader speaking of a brighter future. The promises. Ah, the promises.

Sen. Obama's platform can be considered his goals. There truly is something for everyone.

Sen. Obama's speech at the convention did clarify his goals.

For example, in the areas of energy, economy, and national security:

  • We will be independent of Middle Eastern Oil in 10 years. Ten years is the blink of an eye in terms of establishing a whole new market and infrastructure. But 10 years is a lifetime for a president... actually 8 years is the lifetime. So anything promised beyond 8 years is not a promise that can be kept.
    Regardless, we will no longer be connected to the Middle East for oil after Obama's presidency.

    • This will be accomplished by not drilling for offshore oil and natural gas [where are those new natural gas reserves Obama will tap?].
    • This will be accomplished by not developing our shale oil resources.
    • This will be accomplished by increasing taxes on oil companies.
    • This will be accomplished by mandating unproven technology with no supporting infrastructure for automobiles.
  • We will reduce taxes for individuals and raise taxes on corporations and investors. These same corporations will then be expected to hire more people and increase benefits while competing against foreign companies that do not share those burdens.
    • You will have more sick leave and family leave.
    • Your social security will be protected while your taxes are lowered.
    • Everyone will get the same pay for their work regardless of expertise and years of service.
    • You will have health insurance paid for by the government that will get the money from the corporations
  • We will withdraw from Iraq and focus on "a terrorist network that operates in 80 countries" "with a clear mission."
    • Thanks to the Surge I did not support, I will end the war in Iraq responsibly and then rebuild alliances, such as NATO, so that other countries will eagerly participate in in defeating al Qaeda... even if that means going into Pakistan or other Central Asian nations.
    • Troops will be well equipped despite past efforts to cut off military funding.
    • We will have tough diplomacy to talk Iran out of its nuclear ambitions.
    • We will ensure that genocide doesn't happen and, if it does in places like Darfur, we will end it "with a clear mission."
Obama has promised change. Can we live with his brand of change?

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Thursday, August 07, 2008

Something For Everyone

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

One might ask the question: if you are for everything, are you really for anything?

I have spent some time reading Barack Obama's website. It is really very well done. Clean looking. Red, white, and lots of blue. And there is literally something for everyone in his proposals. It reminds me of the Apple store. Goodies galore... and you barely notice the price.

The guys at General Motors could learn something about marketing on the Internet from this.

But back to the point: if you are for everything, are you really for anything? The list of everything is extensive. I am truly amazed by his grasp of everything.

But there is one theme common among all... Obama will give you something. Below are summaries or dot points... you can read more at Obama's site. As you read these, ask just one question: who pays?

Certainly not me! I'm going to get something!

___________________________________

For women and minorities

Combat Employment Discrimination

Obama will work to overturn the Supreme Court's recent ruling that curtails racial minorities' and women's ability to challenge pay discrimination. Obama will also pass the Fair Pay Act to ensure that women receive equal pay for equal work and the Employment Non-Discrimination Act to prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity or expression.

For National Defense
  • Invest in a 21st Century military [Barack Obama supports plans to increase the size of the Army by 65,000 soldiers and the Marines by 27,000 troops. Increasing our end strength will help units retrain and re-equip properly between deployments and decrease the strain on military families.]
  • Build defense capabilities for the 21st Century [We must rebalance our capabilities to ensure that our forces have the agility and lethality to succeed in both conventional wars and in stabilization and counter-insurgency operations. Obama has committed to a review of each major defense program in light of current needs, gaps in the field, and likely future threat scenarios in the post-9/11 world.]
  • Restore the readiness of the National Guard and Reserves
  • Develop "Whole of Government Initiatives" to promote global stability
  • Restore our alliances [America's traditional alliances, such as NATO, must be transformed and strengthened, including on common security concerns like Afghanistan, homeland security, and counterterrorism. Obama will renew alliances and ensure our allies contribute their fair share to our mutual security.]
  • Reform contracting [Barack Obama will require the Pentagon and State Department to develop a strategy for determining when contracting makes sense, rather than continually handing off governmental jobs to well-connected companies. An Obama administration will create the transparency and accountability needed for good governance. Finally, it will establish the legal status of contractor personnel, making possible prosecution of any abuses committed by private military contractors.]
For criminals
Reduce Crime Recidivism by Providing Ex-Offender Support

Obama will provide job training, substance abuse and mental health counseling to ex-offenders, so that they are successfully re-integrated into society. Obama will also create a prison-to-work incentive program to improve ex-offender employment and job retention rates.

For the disabled
Obamas comprehensive agenda to empower individuals with disabilities fits in with the campaign's overarching message of equalizing opportunities for all Americans.

In addition to reclaiming America's global leadership on this issue by becoming a signatory to -- and having the Senate ratify -- the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, the plan has four parts, designed to provide lifelong supports and resources to Americans with disabilities. They are as follows:

First, provide Americans with disabilities with the educational opportunities they need to succeed.

Second, end discrimination and promote equal opportunity.
Third, increase the employment rate of workers with disabilities.

And fourth, support independent, community-based living for Americans with disabilities.
For states
  • Provide Additional Tax Rebates to American Workers - Stimulus: $20 billion
  • Establish a $10 billion Foreclosure Prevention Fund
  • Provide $10 billion in Relief for State and Local Governments Hardest-Hit by the Housing Crisis to Prevent Cuts in Vital Services
  • Extend and Expand Unemployment Insurance - Stimulus: $10 billion
For taxpayers
  • Obama will cut income taxes by $1,000 for working families to offset the payroll tax they pay.
  • Eliminate Income Taxes for Seniors Making Less than $50,000
For Unions
  • Fight for Fair Trade
  • Amend the North American Free Trade Agreement
  • ...more...
For Business
  • Invest in our Next Generation Innovators and Job Creators
  • Double Funding for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership
  • ...more...
For Infrastructure
  • Create a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank
For Education
  • Early Childhood Education [multiple]
  • K-12 [multiple]
  • Recruit, Prepare, Retain, and Reward America's Teachers
For the Environment
Plan for a Clean Energy Future

“Well, I don't believe that climate change is just an issue that's convenient to bring up during a campaign. I believe it's one of the greatest moral challenges of our generation. That's why I've fought successfully in the Senate to increase our investment in renewable fuels. That's why I reached across the aisle to come up with a plan to raise our fuel standards… And I didn't just give a speech about it in front of some environmental audience in California. I went to Detroit, I stood in front of a group of automakers, and I told them that when I am president, there will be no more excuses — we will help them retool their factories, but they will have to make cars that use less oil.”
  • Reduce Carbon Emissions 80 Percent by 2050
  • Invest in a Clean Energy Future
  • Support Next Generation Biofuels
  • Set America on Path to Oil Independence
  • Improve Energy Efficiency 50 Percent by 2030
For Ethics in Government
“I am in this race to tell the corporate lobbyists that their days of setting the agenda in Washington are over. I have done more than any other candidate in this race to take on lobbyists — and won. They have not funded my campaign, they will not run my White House, and they will not drown out the voices of the American people when I am president.”
For the Religious

In June of 2006, Senator Obama delivered what was called the most important speech on religion and politics in 40 years. Speaking before an evangelical audience, Senator Obama candidly discussed his own religious conversion and doubts, and the need for a deeper, more substantive discussion about the role of faith in American life.

Senator Obama also laid down principles for how to discuss faith in a pluralistic society, including the need for religious people to translate their concerns into universal, rather than religion-specific, values during public debate. In December, 2006, Senator Obama discussed the importance of faith in the global battle against AIDS.

For Families
  • Provide a Living Wage
  • Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit
  • Expand Paid Sick Days
  • Expand the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA)
  • Encourage States to Adopt Paid Leave
  • Expand High-Quality Afterschool Opportunities
  • Expand the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit
  • Protect Against Caregiver Discrimination
  • Expand Flexible Work Arrangements
  • Strengthen Our Schools
  • Provide Universal Health Care and Lower Health Costs
  • Protect Homeownership
  • Strengthen Families at Home
  • Strengthen Retirement Security
For improving Foreign Diplomacy
Obama is willing to meet with the leaders of all nations, friend and foe. He will do the careful preparation necessary, but will signal that America is ready to come to the table, and that he is willing to lead. And if America is willing to come to the table, the world will be more willing to rally behind American leadership to deal with challenges like terrorism, and Iran and North Korea's nuclear programs

[multiple points]
For the Uninsured
Plan for a Healthy America

“We now face an opportunity — and an obligation — to turn the page on the failed politics of yesterday's health care debates… My plan begins by covering every American. If you already have health insurance, the only thing that will change for you under this plan is the amount of money you will spend on premiums. That will be less. If you are one of the 45 million Americans who don't have health insurance, you will have it after this plan becomes law. No one will be turned away because of a preexisting condition or illness.”
For Homeland Security
  • Protecting Our Chemical Plants
  • Keeping Track of Spent Nuclear Fuel
  • Evacuating Special Needs Population in Emergencies
  • Reuniting Families After Emergencies
  • Keeping Our Drinking Water Safe
  • Protecting the Public from Radioactive Releases
For Immigrants
  • Create Secure Borders
  • Obama wants to preserve the integrity of our borders. He supports additional personnel, infrastructure and technology on the border and at our ports of entry.
  • Improve Our Immigration System
  • Obama believes we must fix the dysfunctional immigration bureaucracy and increase the number of legal immigrants to keep families together and meet the demand for jobs that employers cannot fill.
  • Remove Incentives to Enter Illegally
  • Obama will remove incentives to enter the country illegally by cracking down on employers who hire undocumented immigrants.
  • Bring People Out of the Shadows
  • Obama supports a system that allows undocumented immigrants who are in good standing to pay a fine, learn English, and go to the back of the line for the opportunity to become citizens.
  • Work with Mexico
  • Obama believes we need to do more to promote economic development in Mexico to decrease illegal immigration.
For Iraq

“Here is the truth: fighting a war without end will not force the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future. And fighting in a war without end will not make the American people safer.

So when I am Commander-in-Chief, I will set a new goal on day one: I will end this war. Not because politics compels it. Not because our troops cannot bear the burden- as heavy as it is. But because it is the right thing to do for our national security, and it will ultimately make us safer.”

For the Poor
  • Expand Access to Jobs
  • Make Work Pay for All Americans
  • Strengthen Families
  • Increase the Supply of Affordable Housing
  • Tackle Concentrated Poverty
For Farmers
  • Ensure Economic Opportunity For Family Farmers
  • Support Rural Economic Development
  • Improve Rural Quality Of Life
For Volunteers
  • Enable All Americans to Serve to Meet the Nation's Challenges
  • Integrate Service into Learning [Obama will set a goal that all middle and high school students do 50 hours of community service a year.]
  • Invest in the Nonprofit Sector
For Seniors
  • Protect Social Security
    Obama believes that the first place to look for ways to strengthen Social Security is the payroll tax system. Currently, the Social Security payroll tax applies to only the first $102,000 a worker makes. Obama supports increasing the maximum amount of earnings covered by Social Security and he will work with Congress and the American people to choose a payroll tax reform package that will keep Social Security solvent for at least the next half century.
  • Strengthen Retirement Savings
  • Affordable Health Care
  • Protect and Honor Senior
For Technology
Barack Obama understands the immense transformative power of technology and innovation and how they can improve the lives of all Americans. He sees that technology offers the tools to create real change in America. Obama’s forward-thinking 21st century technology and innovation policy starts by recognizing that we need to connect all citizens with each other to engage them more fully and directly in solving the problems that face us. In tandem with that goal, Barack Obama understands that we must use all available technologies and methods to open up the federal government, creating a new level of transparency to change the way business is conducted in Washington and giving Americans the chance to participate in government deliberations and decision-making in ways that were not possible only a few years ago. To achieve this vision, Barack Obama will encourage the deployment of the most modern communications infrastructure. In turn, that infrastructure can be used by government and business to reduce the costs of health care, help solve our energy crisis, create new jobs, and fuel our economic growth. And an Obama administration will ensure America remains competitive in the global economy. [multiple points]
For Urban Areas
  • Strengthen Federal Commitment to our Cities
  • Stimulate Economic Prosperity in our Metropolitan Regions
  • [multiple subpoints of other issues]
For Veterans
  • Allow all veterans back into the VA
  • Strength VA care
  • Combat homelessness among our nation's veterans
  • Fight veterans employment discrimination
  • Help for returning veterans [multiple points]
  • Improved mental health treatment [multiple points]
For Women [multiple subsets of other issues]

For Fiscal Responsibility
  • Reinstate PAYGO Rules
  • Reverse Bush Tax Cuts for the Wealthy
  • Cut Pork Barrel Spending
  • Make Government Spending More Accountable and Efficient
  • End Wasteful Government Spending

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)