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Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Economy Flat Due To Less Government And Corporate Spending

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY.

Economists tell us that in order to correct the federal government revenue/spending imbalance, we will either have to raise taxes or have no-growth or a declining economy... which is then used to justify spending even more.  Debt is a problem for the next generation.  We need to keep up appearances of prosperity.

A small taste of the impact of reduced spending appeared in the 4th quarter of 2012 as defense spending and corporate inventories shrank [companies produced from their inventories without adequate replacement] resulting in a Gross Domestic Product decrease of 0.1% from the previous quarter.  That's hardly reason for panic, but it does tell us that without excessive borrowing, economic measures will look anemic.

GDP contracts on tepid inventories, government spending drop.

The question is whether that is a bad thing.

Sequestration Cuts Will Lead to Floods, Plagues, and Pestilence...

But a drop in CO2.

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Sunday, January 27, 2013

Economic Recovery Ending?

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY.

For those of you who may have missed it, the economic recovery is now in its fourth year.


So, it's not too unexpected that various national economies might be slowing down.

Profit warnings highest since 2008

However, in the U.S., the stock market has been plowing right along to 5-year highs.

IBM's Results Lift Dow Average to a 5-Year High

Does that mean the U.S. economic outlook is really good?

Economic Forecasting Survey

The unemployment rate registered a dramatic 0.5 percentage-point drop over the past two months, but economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey don't expect that pace of decline to continue.
"The general trend in the unemployment rate is lower, and this should continue to be true as long as the economy grows along the profile we project," said Joseph LaVorgna at Deutsche Bank. "However, the cumulative five-tenths decline over the past two months appears to be overdone."
On average, the 48 respondents, not all of whom answer every question, expect the jobless rate will still be at 7.8% in June of next year—matching the September figure released last week. The reason for the stagnation in the job market is expectations for lackluster economic growth during the rest of 2012 and into 2013. Through the first half of next year, the average forecast is for growth in gross domestic product below 2% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Expansion is seen picking up as the year progresses, but isn't expected to surpass 3% through 2014. That means that even when the unemployment rate does begin to fall, the economists don't see it doing so quickly. On average, they still expect the rate to be at 7.1% in December 2014.
That's a "yes, maybe, no."
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Saturday, January 26, 2013

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

The Politician's Answer To All Problems: Invest In Transportation

SEARCH BLOG: TRANSPORTATION.

When it comes to "problem solving" and "thinking big," the professional politician has one fallback position: "invest in transportation."  The American dream has always been to get there from here.  "Getting there" wasn't always a journey in a vehicle.  It mostly meant a journey of personal growth and wealth.  But now it seems that the once grand dream has been reduced to a daydream of mass transportation and electric vehicles.


A few days ago, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood visited Detroit, Michigan bearing a gift of $25 million dollars to help build an "M-1" mass transit system estimated to cost $140 million [before waste and corruption] for just over ... three miles.  Well, in Detroit, three miles is about all you want to go... in the city.  Mostly you want to go about 20 miles... out of the city.  Besides, Detroit's last mass transit effort was pretty much a flop. That could be because all of those "masses" left the city which once held 2-1/2 times as many people.

Let's put that "mass transit" project in perspective:
Regardless, that $25 million should go a long way in helping solve Detroit's chronic $250 million budget deficit.  Let's presume it was a "thank you" gift from the Obama administration for delivering those 800,000 votes from that city of 700,000 people.  But, I guess it is "better than nothin'."

A few days before that, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder gave his State of the State address and slipped in a message that he thought some new taxes to raise $1.2 billion or so each year for roads and bridges would be a good "problem solving" exercise for Michigan.

And President Obama, in his inaugural speech, thought that "investment" in transportation would get us to where we wanted to go.  It solves unemployment, deficits, and a myriad other problems like really bad fiscal management.

Now the only problem left is to get people to travel again.  So many roads... so little money for gas.


We all like good roads, but we'd like a nation that can afford those good roads, too.  Maxing out another national credit card may not be the best approach.
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Sunday, January 13, 2013

Why Is U.S. Employment So Anemic?

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY.

This winter, colds and the flu have been hanging on an on.  It seems as if the recovery from these afflictions happens at the pace of a glacier melting.  Coincidentally, that seems to be the pace of employment recovery in the U.S.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:




Why have the last three recoveries been viewed as jobless, while previous recoveries were not? This is because the speed of recoveries has been slower than before. In the early 1990s and early 2000s, as well as after the Great Recession, slow growth meant that sizable output gaps persisted well into the recovery. In contrast, in most earlier recessions, the output trough was followed by a period of above-normal growth that pulled output back to its previous trend.
In other words, unemployment has stayed high because GDP [output] has not recovered to the pre-recession trend... in other other words, we are having a recovery-less recovery.  Of course, they wouldn't put it in those terms.  What terms would you use?


Let's hope we don't have four more years.

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Thursday, January 03, 2013

Facing Another Fiscal Cliff

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY.

From Financial Times:


The next "cliff" is the debt ceiling on March 1.  That's when the showdown on spending could shake up a lot of the financial markets and lead to some "fundamental changes" in the way Washington, D.C. operates.  Or, as with this last "cliff," it might just be another "bump in the road" that gets steamrollered by the Obama administration.

If Rep. Boehner folds on spending in March, look for a Republican Party civil war.  The Tea Party will split away ensuring that the Democratic Party keeps the presidency for the next decade or so, but will face an increasingly intransigent Congress as conservatives assert themselves.

John Boehner has shown a general lack of spine with regard to spending cuts, so expect his tenure as Speaker of the House to be short lived.

RELATED:

62% Favor Across-the-Board Spending Cuts, But 57% Think They’re Unlikely.

Cut 2% Annually From Federal Spending.
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Tuesday, January 01, 2013

The Reality Of The Fiscal Cliff Negotiations

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY.

Forbes has a good article summarizing the present state of negotiations on the fiscal cliff.  Relative to the $16 trillion debt facing this country [and growing rapidly], the negotiations have resulted in appallingly little.  A 3.6 percentage point bump [10% increase in the rates] in taxes on some high level incomes and the expiration of the Social Security tax reduction for all, provide very modest revenue increases for the government.  Spending cuts are non-existent.

A few bad things have been temporarily avoided.  Massive cuts in payments to doctors for Medicare services were avoided.  Dairy prices won't go up [this just got tacked on].  But nothing in stone about actually cutting spending.  There will be future talks which is Washington-speak for we're gonna ignore that.

The reality is that, aside from a tax increase on high income families, the cliff is getting higher every day and all the posturing is not addressing the very basic issues: our government is spending too much on new programs while unable to balance the budget.  The heavy hand of government comes down only on business in the form of more and more regulations that stifle growth, but never comes down to close the government wallet to stifle spending.

Any agreement based on present negotiations is hardly better than nothing.  The next crisis will, of course, be the debt ceiling.  The dancing continues.

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Thursday, December 27, 2012

Blame It On Bush Once Again

SEARCH BLOG: TAXES.

President Obama wants the people of the United States to believe that he only wants to raise taxes on the rich.  After all, the Bush tax cuts only helped the rich, right?  The Democrats didn't want the tax cuts in the first place and only agreed to go along on the condition that that could last only ten years.

In 2001, when Bush proposed the tax cuts, Democrats argued they would benefit the wealthy, create long-term deficits and deprive social programs of needed money. Some Democrats at the time were open to a more modest tax cut, especially one less favorable to the rich. Bush could push his tax cuts through Congress only by agreeing they would expire a decade later. [source]
Now, President Obama has had second thoughts.  Those terrible Bush tax cuts that cut into social programs for the benefit of the rich are all right as long as the rich are excluded.  That way they can pay their "fair share."

But what really happened with the Bush tax cuts?
According to official IRS data, the top 1% of income earners paid $84 billion more in federal income taxes in 2007 than in 2000 before the Bush tax cuts were passed, 23% more.  The share of total federal income taxes paid by the top 1% rose from 37% in 2000, before the Bush tax cuts, to 40% in 2007, after the tax cuts. 
In contrast, the bottom half of income earners paid $6 billion less in federal income taxes in 2007 than in 2000, a decline of 16%.  The share of federal income taxes paid by the bottom 50% declined from 3.9% in 2000 to 2.9% in 2007. 
The Bush tax cuts also included a doubling of the child tax credit from $500 per child to $1,000 per child.  Because of that, and the 33% cut in the bottom tax rate, nearly 8 million more people dropped off the federal income tax rolls entirely, paying zero federal income taxes.  Indeed, under the Bush tax cuts, the bottom 40% of all income earners not only paid no federal income taxes, as a group on net.  By 2009, they were being paid cash by the IRS equal to 10% of all federal income taxes. 
These Bush tax cuts did not explode the deficit, as Obama and his echo chamber have alleged.  By 2007, the deficit was down to $160 billion, less than 15% of Obama’s deficits today.  Total federal revenues soared from $793.7 billion in 2003, when the last of the Bush tax cuts were enacted, to $1.16 trillion in 2007, a 47% increase.  Capital gains revenues had doubled by 2005, despite the 25% capital gains rate cut adopted in 2003.  Federal revenues rose to 18.5% of GDP by 2007, above the long term, postwar, historical average over the prior 60 years.  CBO was projecting surpluses to return indefinitely in 2012 through the end of its projection period in 2018. [source]
Well, the fiscal crash happened and federal revenues dried up as personal wealth dried up.  Blame it on the rich... which is exactly what the Democrats are doing.

So, what makes the Democrats believe that by reversing the Bush tax cuts for those earning over $250,000 per year revenues will increase... when revenues increased when the tax rates were cut?  Actually, President Obama doesn't believe that at all.  This is nothing more than an extension of his politics of class warfare that will do nothing to solve the excessive spending problem of the Federal government and do everything to stifle economic growth an tax revenues.
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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Is The Fiscal Cliff Just A "Trigger Mechanism" For "Fundamentally Changing" The United States?

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA and ECONOMY.

It seems amazing to many that there is so little concern about the massive debt that has been accruing in the Federal government.  A little bailout here, a little "quantitative easing" there, and presto-chango we have a Keynesian solution to all of our problems.

As noted in the previous post, the next president faces a $20 trillion federal debt and few options to pay it down.  One of the authors of Econbrowser, a liberal economist from the University of Wisconsin, proposed that inflation would solve all of our problems... just make money worth less or worthless?  To be fair, the proposal was for modest, targeted inflation, not runaway inflation.

The present crisis is the so-called "fiscal cliff" which seems to be generating a lot of hot air in Washington, D.C., but not much real action.  Solutions range to spending cuts ... cutting the rate of spending increases from planned levels, but still above present levels... to a symbolic tax increase on "wealthy" Americans ... those making more than $250,000.  The latter, of course, is classic class warfare, but not much in the way of a solution to ever-increasing debt.

But this is small change.  Perhaps we need to harken back to President Obama's words.


Some reduction in the rate of spending increases and some minor tax increase are not "fundamental changes."  What would be fundamental?  The following is from Doug Hagmann at the Canada Free Press:
Life for the average American is going to change significantly, and not the change people expect. First, DHS is preparing to work with police departments and the TSA to respond to civil uprisings that will happen when there is a financial panic. And there will be one, maybe as early as this spring, when the dollar won’t get you a gumball. I’m not sure what the catalyst will be, but I’ve heard rumblings about a derivatives crisis as well as an oil embargo. I don’t know, that’s not my department. But something is going to happen to collapse the dollar, which has been in the works since the 1990s. Now if it does not happen as soon as this, it’s because there are people, real patriots, who are working to prevent this, so it’s a fluid dynamic. But that doesn’t change the preparations. 
And the preparations are these: DHS is prepositioning assets in strategic areas near urban centers all across the country. Storage depots. Armories. And even detainment facilities, known as FEMA camps. FEMA does not even know that the facilities are earmarked for detainment by executive orders, at least not in the traditional sense they were intended. By the way, people drive by some of these armories every day without even giving them a second look. Commercial and business real estate across the country are being bought up or leased for storage purposes. Very low profile. 
Anyway, I am hearing that the plan from on high is to let the chaos play out for a while, making ordinary citizens beg for troops to be deployed to restore order. but it’s all organized to make them appear as good guys. That’s when the real head knocking will take place. We’re talking travel restrictions, which should not be a problem because gas will be rationed or unavailable. The TSA will be in charge of travel, or at least be a big part of it. They will be commissioned, upgraded from their current status. 
They, I mean Jarrett and Obama as well as a few others in government, are working to create a perfect storm too. This is being timed to coincide with new gun laws.
That sounds fairly "fundamental."
How much clearer do you want it? The Second Amendment will be gone, along with the first, at least practically or operationally. The Constitution will be gone, suspended, at least in an operational sense. Maybe they won’t actually say that they are suspending it, but will do it. Like saying the sky is purple when it’s actually blue. How many people will look at the sky and say yeah, it’s purple? They see what they want to see. 
So the DHS, working with other law enforcement organizations, especially the TSA as it stands right now, will oversee the confiscation of assault weapons, which includes all semi-automatic weapons following a period of so-called amnesty. It also includes shotguns that hold multiple rounds, or have pistol grips. They will go after the high capacity magazines, anything over, say 5 rounds. 
They will also go after the ammunition, especially at the manufacturer’s level. They will require a special license for certain weapons, and make it impossible to own anything. More draconian than England. This is a global thing too. Want to hunt? What gives you the right to hunt their animals? Sound strange? I hope so, but they believe they own the animals. Do you understand now, how sick and twisted this is? Their mentality? 
The obvious intent is to disarm American citizens. They will say that we’ll still be able to defend ourselves and go hunting, but even that will be severely regulated. This is the part that they are still working out, though. While the plans were made years ago, there is some argument over the exact details. I know that Napalitano, even with her support of the agenda, would like to see this take place outside of an E.O. [Executive Order] in favor of legislative action and even with UN involvement.
The Republicans wouldn't let that happen, would they?
Stop thinking about a normal situation. The country is divided, which is exactly where Obama wants us to be. We are as ideologically divided as we were during the Civil War and that rift is growing every day. Add in a crisis - and economic crisis - where ATM and EBT cards will stop working. Where bank accounts will contain nothing but air. They are anticipating a revolution and a civil war rolled into one (emphasis added by this author). 
Imagine when talk show hosts or Bloggers or some other malcontent gets on the air or starts writing about the injustice of it all, and about how Obama is the anti-Christ or something. They will outlaw such talk or writing as inciting the situation - they will make it illegal by saying that it is causing people to die. The Republicans will go along with everything as it’s - we have - a one party system. Two parties is an illusion. It’s all so surreal to talk about but you see where this is headed, right?

That's just nonsense talk.

Perhaps.  There are a lot of conspiracy theorists on the left and the right.  The propose scenarios that might be possible, but seem completely implausible.  The suspension of the Constitution?  Government by Executive Order?  Arming of Executive Branch departments.  Firing of top military officers?

Implausible.
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And Now Come The Christmas Bills

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY.

From Forbes:

President Obama's Legacy: $20 Trillion in Deficits for 2016 Victor.

Five trillion dollars in new debt will allow Obama to pursue his second-term political objective of a bigger and more intrusive federal government that serves his interests and those of his political allies.  With a compliant Fed and willing foreign bond buyers (largely in Asia), he might be able to stave off the bond market vigilantes throughout his second term, if he is lucky. But he will leave his successor with a $20 trillion debt. At a “normal” interest rate of five percent, Obama’s successor will face annual interest payments of one trillion dollars. To gain some perspective, the CBO projects social security to cost one trillion in 2018. Our interest payments on the national debt (at 5 percent) would roughly equal the entire cost of social security!
A trillion here, a trillion there; pretty soon you're talking real money.
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Saturday, December 22, 2012

Obama The Common Man's President Arrives In Hawaii As Fiscal Cliff Looms

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA and ECONOMY.

Can you imagine what the mainstream media would be doing if George Bush were president and the fiscal cliff was dead ahead... and he did this?

Obama and family arrive in Hawaii for Christmas

Updated 3:31 am, Saturday, December 22, 2012
KAILUA, Hawaii (AP) — President Barack Obama and his family have arrived in Honolulu to spend Christmas in Hawaii, where the president was born and raised. 
Air Force One touched down in Honolulu minutes after midnight local time on Saturday. The first family departed the plane and traveled quickly to their vacation house in the beach town of Kailua, a scenic, sleepy beach town on the east side of Oahu. [more]
Meanwhile, the common man's president has indicated that the common man's senator from Massachusetts, John Kerry, would be the next Secretary of State.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2012
Five luxury homes, 76-foot yacht, SUV, and a private jet: John Kerry models the lifestyle of a liberal who allegedly believed James Hansen's 1988 carbon dioxide warning [source]
This is big government working for ... those who are elected to big government.  How's that you common-man suckers?
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Tuesday, December 11, 2012

The U.S. Subsidizes Chinese Takeovers Of U.S. Advanced Battery Business

SEARCH BLOG: CHINA.

The other day, it was announced that A123 systems would be selling most of its assets to the Chinese through the bankruptcy process.  This was after a quarter-billion dollar grant from the U.S. government simply failed to be enough to keep the company in operation making batteries for electric cars like the Chevy Volt ... which has the U.S. government as its biggest owner and biggest customer.

China Picks Up The Pieces Of U.S. Battery Manufacturer

Not everyone is enamored with this outcome.


Could this be part of Obama's strategy for a greater American presence in southeastern Asia?  He just accidentally transposed the countries.
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Monday, December 10, 2012

China Picks Up The Pieces Of U.S. Battery Manufacturer

SEARCH BLOG: CHINA and ECONOMY.

A123 Systems, Inc. is headquartered in Massachusetts with locations around the world.  But soon, its actual ownership will move to China.

A123 confirms Wanxiang wins bid for bankrupt battery maker

NEW YORK (Reuters) - China's largest maker of auto parts won an auction for A123 Systems Inc (AONEQ.PK), a bankrupt maker of batteries for electric cars that was funded partly with U.S. government money, A123 confirmed in a statement Sunday.
Wanxiang Group Corp's bid of $256.6 million topped a joint bid from Johnson Controls Inc (JCI) of Milwaukee and Japan's NEC Corp, for the maker of lithium-ion batteries.
The sale did not include A123's Michigan-based government business that works with the U.S. Defense Department, which was instead sold to Navitas Systems for $2.25 million, A123 said.
Actually, A123 Systems received a $250 million grant from the U.S. government and anther $140 million in tax credits from the State of Michigan.  The Michigan plant was sold for $2.25 million versus tax credits and subsidies about 65 times that.

One question is this: why is A123 attractive as an investment to the Chinese when it was a failure as an investment for the U.S. government?  Could be that the Chinese are buying the company for pennies on the dollar.  Could be that the technology is more valuable than the other assets.  Could be any number of reasons.

Another question: is the operating environment in the U.S. filled with too many barriers to success for new technology efforts?  Could be that government involvement came with too many strings.  Could be that A123 had good ideas and bad management.  Could be that the real market for A123 products was less than planned for and resulted in a bad financial situation from over-commitments..

But whatever the reason behind the bankruptcy, this was another government investment in alternative energy that went bust.  Maybe it's time for any government... state or federal... to quit picking winners and losers in the energy sector and let the marketplace do the picking.  There are just too many bad decisions being made by politicians who have drunk the electric car kool-aid.

Anybody want to buy a Chevy Volt?
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Thursday, December 06, 2012

Obama To Detroit: It's Getting Too Warm There So I'm Giving Billions To The UN To Save You

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA and DETROIT and GLOBAL WARMING:

As Detroit continues to plunge over its own "fiscal cliff" and headlong into its cold "winter of discontent," it is interesting to note that the Obama administration will be ... once again ... giving away billions of dollars for "green" projects, but not for Detroit.


It is unlikely that is what will be mentioned in Obama's speech while in Detroit next week.
President Obama will be making his first trip to Michigan in nearly eight months.
The last time he was in Michigan, Mr. Obama stopped at the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn for a campaign event.
This time around he's expected to deliver a major speech on the economy and middle class families in Detroit, according to David Shepardson of the Detroit News. [source]
A 1° per century change in temperature is probably the least of Detroit's worries. 
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Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Liberal Businessmen Not So Liberal With Their Own Taxable Income

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY and TAXES.

With the prospect of higher taxes on dividends as the Bush tax cuts being replaced with Obama tax increases, wealthy liberal businessmen are acting very conservatively with regard to their own investments.

Costco's co-founder, James Sinegal, appeared at the Democratic National Convention.


From the National Review.
Last Wednesday, the Costco board of directors voted for a special dividend costing $3 billion, which will be completely financed through borrowing. The dividend is timed to take advantage of current tax rates, which will almost triple on January 1, 2013, for wealthy investors such as those on the Costco board. As The Wall Street Journal reports:
Dividends are typically paid out of earnings, either current or accumulated.… We think companies can do what they want with their cash, but it’s certainly rare to see a public corporation weaken its balance sheet not for investment in the future but to make a one-time equity payout.
As The Wall Street Journal pointed out:
One of the biggest dividend winners will be none other than Mr. Sinegal, who owns about two million shares, while his wife owns another 84,669. At $7 a share, the former CEO will take home roughly $14 million. At a 15% tax rate he'll get to keep nearly $12 million of that windfall, while at next year's rate of 43.4% he'd take home only about $8 million. That's a lot of extra cannoli.
Well, he is certainly taking the uncertainty out of his financial equation.

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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Congress And President Staring Down The Fiscal Cliff

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY.

Congress is trying to work toward some solution to the "fiscal cliff crisis" facing the government and our nation.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- There's one part of the fiscal cliff that nearly everyone agrees on: avoiding the $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts scheduled to begin on Jan 2. [full story]
As congressional leaders exited the White House today after an opening round of discussions with President Obama, the mood seemed upbeat and lawmakers relied heavily on optimistic  metaphors. [source]
Well, yes here is what the President is doing as his part in the difficult process.

Obama So Worried About Fiscal Cliff He’s Taking 3 Weeks Off To Vacation.

After making a few more recent campaign-style class warfare speeches about the need for Congress to raise taxes, Barack Obama is preparing to spend a 3-week holiday in Hawaii for much of December and the first week of January.  Looks like he’s not so concerned about that “fiscal cliff” disaster, eh?
LEAD, FOLLOW, OR GET OUT OF THE WAY!  GUESS WE KNOW WHAT IS THE PRESIDENT'S CHOICE.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Obama Administration To Rename Fiscal Cliff "Bump In The Road"

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA and ECONOMY.

Life is full of little "bumps in the road."  Bumps in the road are much more palatable to the guy in the car than "cliffs ahead."

So, with discussions in Washington going nowhere to address the "fiscal cliff" situation, the Obama administration will shortly announce that we are headed toward a "fiscal bump in the road" which will hardly be noticeable by most people... except those with taxes to pay, retirement savings, and homes which are worth less than they paid... and maybe doctors... and perhaps the armed forces... and people who use dollars to pay for goods and services.

But those are just minor "bumps in the road."  The good news is that Washington, D. C. will still be home to the Congress and the President who, incidentally, are not subject to bumps in the road.

Isn't it amazing how things that seem big can be made much more manageable if we just use the right words?  And if you use the right words and they worked once, why not use them again... and again?


Bumpity, bumpity, bump, bump, bump....

MORE BUMPS:

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2012

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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

2013: Housing: Boom Or Bust?

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY.

Everyday it seems there are new stories about how the U.S. housing situation is getting better.  But there are a few voices in the wilderness who are calling out, "Watch out below!"


The Wall Street Journal supports that general contention with this specific warning about the Federal Housing Authority:
The Latest Taxpayer Housing Bust. 
With the election over, we learn that the FHA is insolvent.
Vindication is overrated, especially in a losing cause, so it brings no satisfaction to have predicted that the Federal Housing Administration would sooner or later threaten taxpayers. That day has arrived. Safely past the election, the feds announced Friday that the FHA's liabilities exceed its assets by at least $16.3 billion—and the gap could reach $93.7 billion in the worst case. [more]
And what is the Obama administration doing about this?

 

Yup, fiscal responsibility be damned.  We're going to have social justice.

Maybe it's time for the Social Justicer In Chief to go back to doing what he does best.

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Can"t Find It?

Use the SEARCH BLOG feature at the upper left. For example, try "Global Warming".

You can also use the "LABELS" below or at the end of each post to find related posts.

Blog Archive

Cost of Gasoline - Enter Your Zipcode or Click on Map

CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)