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Friday, September 18, 2009

Goodbye Europe

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS and IRAN

From The New York Times:

White House to Scrap Bush’s Approach to Missile Shield

By PETER BAKER and NICHOLAS KULISH
Published: September 17, 2009

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration plans to announce on Thursday that it will scrap former President George W. Bush’s planned missile defense system in Eastern Europe and instead deploy a reconfigured system aimed more at intercepting shorter-range Iranian missiles, according to people familiar with the plans.

President Obama decided not to deploy a sophisticated radar system in the Czech Republic or 10 ground-based interceptors in Poland, as Mr. Bush had planned. Instead, the new system his administration is developing would deploy smaller SM-3 missiles, at first aboard ships and later probably either in southern Europe or Turkey, those familiar with the plans said.

Read more....

Without a lot of specific information about the ship-based missile system, one can only deduce the nature and extent of the protection offered.

  • Time to detect and verify launch direction and hostile intent - 5 to 10 minutes
  • Time to react and launch SM-3 anti-missile missiles - 1 to 2 minutes
  • Distance hostile missile flies in 10 minutes - hundreds of miles (see specs below)
  • Range of SM-3 - about 325 miles
  • Portion of Europe protected - not much
Shahab-3
Shahab-3.svg
Type Strategic MRBM
Service history
In service 2003–present
Used by Flag of Iran Iran
Production history
Manufacturer Flag of Iran.svg Iran
Variants A,B,C,D
Specifications
Diameter 1.2 m (3 ft 11 in)
Warhead One (990 kg/2,200 lb) - five cluster warheads in new models (280 kg/620 lb) each warhead, each warhead can target different destinations.
Engine Liquid & Solid (for models made after 2006)
Operational
range		 2,100 km (1,300 mi)
Speed 5,500 km/h (3,400 mph), 21 mach in final phase.

Specifications and images from Wikipedia.org
It seems questionable how much protection any area would be afforded from missiles based in the Mediterranean Sea. One might think that this is just another step in President Obama's effort to undercut the U.S. military presence and effectiveness around the world.

[map from Google Maps]

More protection would be offered by moving from the Mediterranean Sea to the Black Sea, but it is conceivable that Iran could counter that by setting up ship-based launch systems in the Caspian Sea... or the Atlantic Ocean. Just a harmless cargo ship until a few missiles pop out and the ship is scuttled or destroyed itself with a small nuclear device set off by the crew after they abandon ship in a small, high-speed boat. No telling how far the nut-jobs in Iran will go... and how much the nut-jobs in North Korea will help them.

Missile defense is difficult and expensive. Certainly having our ships sitting around waiting for a missile to go off can't be cheap. Maybe the more rational approach is to place them within the borders of our allies... oh, wait, that was the plan.

Of course, it could be argued that Iran's missiles are only for defensive purposes and its nuclear program is only for generating electricity. They could be....
..

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)