2020 - Changing Geo-Politcal Landscape

The National Intelligence Council's paper looked at possible futures regarding poitical power.

"A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, active promotion of high technologies, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power for both [China and India]."

As pointed out in yesterday's post, the U.S. is contributing to the economic rise of our own competition:

• U.S.-based multinational corporations are focusing more manufacturing as well as reseach and development activities in China and India driving a significant portion of those countries' advances
• U.S. focus on advanced education in hard sciences has declined in the past two decades
• U.S. government has not seen any need for a "Manhattan-style project" for advances in the frontier sciences... leaving the gates wide open for other countries to move into leadership positions

The rise of economic power is concommitant with the rise of political and military power:

"China’s desire to gain “great power” status on the world stage will be reflected in its greater economic leverage over countries in the region and elsewhere as well as its steps to strengthen its military. East Asian states are adapting to the advent of a more powerful China by forging closer economic and political ties with Beijing, potentially accommodating themselves to its preferences, particularly on sensitive issues like Taiwan.

• Japan, Taiwan, and various Southeast Asian nations, however, also may try to appeal to each other and the United States to counterbalance China’s growing influence. China will continue to strengthen its military through developing and acquiring modern weapons, including advanced fighter aircraft, sophisticated submarines, and increasing numbers of ballistic missiles. China will overtake Russia and others as the second largest defense spender after the United States over the next two decades and will be, by any measure, a first-rate military power."

It is not a certainty that India and China will become economic superpowers, but it is likely. And with that likelihood comes the likelihood that the U.S. will have to adapt to a different role in the world... still important, but not the driving force.

There are some flies in the ointment for the U.S., China, and India:

U.S.

• Increase in poor Hispanic population resulting in an overall less-educated population and greater ethnic fragmentation
• Increase in the gap between the haves and have-nots... the poor will be less supported because the productive population will be a relatively smaller percentage of the total population
  
• Tendency toward looking inward versus the rest of the world... some loss of military and political confidence/relative strength... more focus on exclusively American issues... much less effort to be the world's "policeman".
  

China

• Dramatically aging population because of the "one child" policy
• Potential political unrest as larger "middle class" emerges with higher level of overall education for the total population

India

• Regional political unrest with neighboring Muslim countries
• Significant gap between the haves and have-nots that could cause social upheaval

A big potential fly in the ointment for both India and China is the spread of AIDS which is growing rapidly in both countries. Unless an effective vaccine is found soon, there may be widespread social impact as the large poorer segments of those populations become infected. India now leads the world in HIV/AIDS cases with about 5,000,000 adults or nearly 1% of the adult population... less percentage-wise than other countries (particularly in Africa)... but most absolute number.