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Friday, August 10, 2007

Hottest Year

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Now that government and industry [see yesterday's post] are convinced they have to tax us more and manipulate markets due to global warming, along comes this "inconvenient truth." There appears to be a little mathematical shuffling of the rankings for the "hottest year." This is my take at Climate Science which made its own observations and received plenty of comments:

The ranking of 1934 as the hottest year is fairly consistent with the analysis I did [and about which you dedicated a post on this site]. As of 2006, the state record temperatures count for 1934 was 25 versus 29 in 1936… compared with 19 in 1998.

http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2007/03/us-extreme-temperatures-update.html

I suspect that with further analysis, there will be little doubt that the 1930s were the hottest decade on record for the U.S. That may not necessarily follow for the rest of the world, but I’d be surprised if there wasn’t some correlation.

So, does that mean we had 50 years of global cooling followed by a temporary uptick? I guess it's all how you measure it. It could also be seen as a simple oscillation along a flat line, but that's not as exciting as declaring "ice age" one decade and "global warming [disaster]" a few decades later.
By the way, 2006 had only one record high temperature set.
Apparently, the 4th quarter in the northern hemisphere was not as cold as usual so that made it the 3rd hottest year... hmmmmm. However, February of 2007 more than made up for the lack of cold in late 2006:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/feb/februaryext2007.html
The point of all of this is that "the debate is not over." When data can be modified and manipulated so that fractions of a degree mean entirely different conclusions are reached, then we are dealing with uncertainty. When the potential error in feeder readings are greater than the purported 100-year trend change [urban heat islands... improperly placed weather stations...], then there is no reason to debate.
Move on org to energy reduction policies or population reduction policies or no more fish on Fridays policies or whatever are the real hidden agendas of the special interest groups who dislike the presence of other humans and quit pushing a red herring.
Meanwhile, I've noticed that www.climateaudit.org and www.surfacestations.org have been inaccessible since they did their analysis and comments. Probably overheated the servers.

ADDENDUM

It appears that Climate Audit and Surface Stations websites are being intentionally attacked as a result of publishing information that contradicts global warming alarmists. This from the Climate Science website:

I know the DOS [denial of service] attack on ClimateAudit.org was real, as I helped them try to troubleshoot the problem, and the attack continues even now. The server is getting constant DOS attacks and anytime they try to reconnect the SQL server to the Wordpress blog engine, it gets overwhelmed with requests. The nature and speed of the requests have not abated as eastern time zone goes home from work as would be expected with interest driven requests.

DOS attacks are easy to do, anybody can get some freely available software to launch them.

My problem with surfacetstations.org is different, my dual T1 circuit to my office went dead about 2 hours after CA’s DOS attacks started. The problem is somewhere in the SFO Bay Area. We don’t know what it is and the ISP is trying to track it down.

Its not just the one server that is offline, its my entire business. I’m writing from home while I wait for word from the telco/ISP on what the problem is.

For now I’m going to assume my circuit problem is coincidental until I hear otherwise.

Comment by Anthony Watts — August 9, 2007 @ 9:40 pm

I guess if you can't debate effectively, you prevent the other person from communicating....

..

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)