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Sunday, February 24, 2008

The Obama-Paul Strategy

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS and MIDDLE EAST

One of the pivotal points in the campaign strategies of both Barack Obama and Ron Paul is that, if elected, they would start... immediately... the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq. Their justification is that the U.S. should not be in Iraq

...whether or not the intelligence reports which were part of the basis for our being there [and accepted by members of both parties in Congress] were correct, whether or not the U.N. was correct, whether or not the perceived threat of Saddam Hussein working with al Qaeda was correct...
the U.S. simply should ignore the rest of the world and keep its military inside our borders.

Obviously, there are a lot of people who believe that as well. So, let's examine the possibilities.
February 2009: President Obama-Paul issues the Executive Order to begin the immediate withdrawal of troops.

April 2009: The first 50,000 troops are flown to the U.S.

June 2009: The second 50,000 troops are flown to the U.S.

September 2009: The third 50,000 troops are flown to the U.S.

December 2009: The remaining troops are flown to the U.S. except for a small contingent of specialists who will remain to assist with training Iraqi troops and training Iraqi equipment maintenance personnel.

January 2010: The Iraqi government gratefully recognizes the help of the U.S. in the reconstruction and reunification of their nation.
  • Iran recognizes the sovereignty of Iraq and pledges peace and economic ties.
  • The Kurds in the north have serious discussions with Turkey and pledge that they will work with Turkey to ensure that no Kurds create further problems for Turkey.
  • The Taliban agree to cease their efforts to regain control of Afghanistan and pledge to peacefully rebuild that nation along with the government... and work for lasting peace in the Middle East
March 2010: President Obama-Paul is nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

We have had our first great change and the realization of all of our hopes.
Or the future might go like this:
February 2009: President Obama-Paul issues the Executive Order to begin the immediate withdrawal of troops.

April 2009: The first 50,000 troops are flown to the U.S.

May 2009: Sunni clerics declare that they must be given final approval for all laws proposed and passed by the government.

June 2009: The second 50,000 troops are flown to the U.S.

July 2009: Iran identifies "inconsistencies" in the position of the Iraqi government and the Iranian understanding of their rights to "monitor" the "peace process" inside Iraq.

August 2009: The Kurds declare that they are an autonomous state, but will "endeavor to cooperate" with the Iraqi government.

September 2009: The third 50,000 troops are flown to the U.S.

October 2009: Syria expresses concern that the area from their border with Iraq to 100 miles inside Iraq has become "unstable" and, therefore, Syria will be sending in their army to "stabilize" the area.

November 2009: Turkey expresses "grave concern" with Kurdish failure to control rebels along the Turkish border and announces that they will be sending troops into the Kurdish state up to 100 miles from the border.

December 2009: The remaining troops are flown to the U.S. except for a small contingent of specialists who will remain to assist with training Iraqi troops and training Iraqi equipment maintenance personnel.

January 2010: The Iraqi government dissolves declaring that "special elections" will be held within the various provinces to determine further participation in a national government.

February 2010: The last of U.S. troops are withdrawn and returned to the U.S. President Obama-Paul receives a standing ovation as he announces to Congress: "Mission Accomplished."

March 2010: President Obama-Paul is nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. We have had our first great change and the realization of all of our hopes.

April 2010: Iran and Syria invade the remainder of Iraq and then join the Taliban in Afghanistan to overthrow that government. Saudi Arabia enters negotiation with Iran to create a Middle East cartel exclusive of OPEC. China declares Iran to be their strategic military and economic partner.

May 2010: Gasoline reaches $6.00 per gallon in the U.S. triggering a massive recession.
President Obama-Paul declares that America has achieve pieces in the Middle East and that alternative energy and anti-global warming programs are now the highest priority. The first step of that program will be to shut down all coal-fired power plants and require automobile manufacturers to produce vehicles achieving 50 mpg by 2012. Tax increases for business and wealthy individuals earning more than $75,000 will take place immediately.

Hope and change triumph.

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)