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Friday, April 24, 2009

General Motors Brand Confusion

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Yesterday, I posted that General Motors needed brand consolidation. Here is the history of GM's domestic brands from the mid-20th century [actually the six historical brands were around a lot longer than that].
Now compare that timeline with GM's U.S. market share which was once 2-1/2 times as large [source].

That's complex enough for a corporation with less than 20% of the automotive market share. But when combined with model complexity... that equals dilution... of engineering and design effort, marketing resources, service support, parts inventory and management staffs... as well as brand identity.
There are some models within these various brands that I found hard to fit into the categories above, like the Chevrolet HHR [small car/small CUV] and Camero [mid-sized coupe/convertable or Roadster/Sport].

Comparing this with Toyota and Lexus [from their websites], you see the difference.


While there are only two brands versus seven, Toyota seems to have caught some of the over-modeling disease of domestic brands. Lexus is particularly confusing with their alphabet soup, but Lexus has its niche following and doesn't overlap too much with the Toyota models. Toyota may be getting a bit too much into internal model overlap, but nothing near GM's situation.

General Motors needs to figure out what a suitable brand strategy for its situation is... presuming General Motors comes out of this economic hole. It isn't seven brands; it may be two or three.

These brands have little value beyond sentiment or outdated image:

  • Pontiac [lost between Chevrolet and Saturn]
  • Buick [a Cadillac wannabe without product breadth... GM's short version of Mercury]
  • Hummer [humming to a different tune than the rest of the automotive market]
The Saturn strategy of being the "youth" and "innovation" brand got blurred over the years as models in Chevrolet and Pontiac replicated Saturn's niche vehicles.

GMC was always the premium truck brand, but now it has lost most of that distinction to Cadillac. It may have value as a medium/heavy truck brand, but probably not enough to make it worthwhile keeping over the long term.
General Motors needs to clean house brands and trim staffs to a size commensurate with its market share. But it may be too little, too late. Let's hope for the sake of the U.S. economy that is not the case... because all of those service and professional jobs that don't rely on U.S. manufacturing seem to be disappearing, too.

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

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February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)