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Sunday, May 09, 2010

Urban Planning Detroit Style

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It seems that every few weeks the Detroit newspapers run a story about how to fix Detroit.  If Detroit was a person, the question would be how to fix a homeless, drunken bum with gangrene.  Where do you start?  The Detroit Free Press reports:

By SUZETTE HACKNEY


FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER


When he took office a year ago, Detroit May or Dave Bing arrived with the notion of having no time to waste — and no time for distractions outside City Hall.


He was determined to overhaul city govern ment, avert bankruptcy and ignore his critics. Now, as he reflects on his first year, Bing says the city’s financial and bureaucratic realities have led him to refocus his leadership approach. Starting Wednesday, Bing will begin holding a se ries of community summits that will focus on land use, public safety, education, health, youths and jobs. The summits, he says, will serve as a kickoff to his restruc turing policies, bit by bit.


“I think I’m a person who has always planned well, but when you inherit the magnitude of problems and inefficiencies that are here, there’s no way for you to make the long range plans without doing it on a project-orient ed basis,” Bing told the Free Press. “For the rest of the calendar year and into 2011, I’m not so worried about being forced to put a plan out there. I’m more interested in looking at the pro jects that I know we can complete.”


Despite the demands of the job, Bing has vowed not to quit.


“I’ve got this desire — I’m a competitor — and I’m not satisfied with how we’re perceived here within the city and outside of this city, and I want to change that.” he said.
That reminds me of this [click images for larger view].

When the going gets tough, the tough do something... anything.  "Patience my ass, I'm gonna kill something." The problem is that doing something is not necessarily all that constructive or effective in the absence of vision and leadership and in the presence of entrenched special interests.

Some well-meaning individuals believe that Detroit, like that homeless derelict, can be cured without surgery.  "Downsizing" is confusing to them.  They prefer "right sizing" or "regenerating."

The first question might be, "What is 'right sizing' in the context of a city like Detroit?"  There is a direct correlation between the de-populating process and this:

How do you "right size" a half-empty city without shrinking the physical boundaries of that city?  How do you fill the empty spaces with something that contributes to both the fiscal and social well-being of the city without surgery or a plan?


There is nothing in the near term... the next 5 to 10 years... that portends any "regeneration" for Detroit.  Perhaps if Michigan had a strong economy, the "project" approach could be supported with a stream of state funds.


Therefore, I refer you, once again, to this: 

Detroit Will Not Downsize Area Until Everyone Is Gone





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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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- O. Henry
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FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

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February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)