READ ABOUT DETROIT AND SOLUTIONS TO ITS PROBLEMS. CLICK HERE.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Not Like Detroit

After a short visit and some 300+ photos later, I've returned from San Francisco with another perspective about Detroit and southeastern Michigan. Some history first:

  • Detroit area was settled in the early 1600s; San Francisco started with a Franciscan mission around 1776.
  • Detroit reached a peak population of 1.8 million in 1950 and has declined to about 880,000 or less; San Francisco has had a relatively stable population of about 750,000 restricted by space and cost of housing.
  • Detroit's population is about 87% black and 13% white; San Francisco is about 50% white, 30% Asian, 8% black, and the remainder miscellaneous.
  • In 2003, Detroit had 29,000 violent crimes; San Francisco had less than 6,000.
  • In 2002, Detroit had a median income of $30,000; San Francisco had a median income of almost $60,000.
Detroit, unfortunately, represents the worst of what comprises a large, American city; San Francisco represents the best. San Francisco has some natural advantages over Detroit, but not as many as you might think to make the difference between the two cities.

You can click on the photos to see a larger image. Then use your "back" button to come back to this blog.











Thursday, September 28, 2006

Persistence Pays... Maybe

I received a call from the county Road Commission today. I have been a thorn in their side for quite awhile, but I have to say that Oakland County has been reasonably responsive. A lot of my issues are actually with the Michigan Department Of Transportation, but the county gets to process the complaints.

I did learn that some of the great things that were supposed to have been done over the past few years in the area of traffic management actually did not get done. All of those computerized signals that were supposed to optimize traffic... well, a lot of them aren't there. And, therefore, the high-traffic routes are disrupted by mechanical timers that lose their timing and create traffic "bunching"... clusters of vehicles that go from one red light to the next.

The Road Commission representative said that she would see to it that the specific problems I identified would be checked out by an engineer and corrected. That's great, but as long as the system is not upgraded, it will be a losing battle for commuters. Still, I applaud the Road Commission of Oakland County for trying to be responsive and responsible. Now, about MDOT....

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Catholics Threaten Cartoonist


Angry Catholics around the world threatened cartoonist Mike Thompson of the Detroit Free Press with death and beheading for publishing the cartoon depicting "fallible" popes. Catholics chanted "death to Mike," "death to the infidel" as they burned copies of the newspaper and declared a "Holy Crusade" against the "unbeliever"...

or not.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Muslim Reaction: Same Song 2nd Verse

... a little louder, a little worse....

Back in February I wrote about Muslim reaction to cartoons about Mohammed.

It appears that nothing has changed:

  • An elderly nun was killed in Somalia
  • Two churches were set afire on the West Bank
  • Protests occurred in Iran
  • Al Crummy declared the that the Pope and the West are "doomed"
Meanwhile, Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Jews and others went about their daily lives.

As I said Friday, you can protest all you want, but if it is written and said and done... it's what it is.

Friday, September 15, 2006

Pots and Kettles

My unprovable beliefs are better than your unprovable beliefs.

By SUZAN FRASER, Associated Press Writer

ANKARA, Turkey - Muslims around the world expressed outrage Friday over Pope Benedict XVI's comments on Islam, with Turkey's ruling party accusing him of trying to revive the spirit of the Crusades and scores taking to the streets in protest

Pakistan's parliament unanimously condemned the pope, and the Foreign Ministry summoned the Vatican's ambassador to express regret over the remarks.

The Vatican said the pope did not intend the remarks — made in Germany on Tuesday during an address at a university — to be offensive.

Benedict quoted from a book recounting a conversation between 14th century Byzantine Christian Emperor Manuel Paleologos II and a Persian scholar on the truths of Christianity and Islam.

"The emperor comes to speak about the issue of jihad, holy war," the pope said. "He said, I quote, 'Show me just what Muhammad brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached.'"
People really get angry when you express something negative about their most closely held beliefs... probably because they know that they can only believe what they believe, not prove what they believe... especially when there is a provable assessment about what they believe... this is what is written; this is what is said; this is what is done.

Of course, using a 14th century reference from someone who supported 14th century Christian beliefs and actions is a lot like the pot calling the kettle black.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Ahh! September!!!

Golfing in the 60s (temperatures not scores) with cider and doughnuts afterward. The only thing that could be better is scoring in the 60s, too.

Okay, not everything in Michigan is getting bad.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Path to 9/11

Kudos to ABC for its two-day broadcast of "The Path To 9/11". If you didn't see it, you can.
ABC did a risky and classy thing with this broadcast.

It was very difficult to watch it, but it's something that Americans should. While the portrayals may have offended some, the people portrayed did not have the benefit of 20-20 hindsight. It was amazing that some government officials actually tried to do the right thing and, at times, succeeded. The message was pretty clear to anyone watching: us or them.

It was also pretty clear that the Geneva convention doesn't apply... even if politicans and judges want to say it does. But that's another matter.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Uncivilized and Barbaric

September 11, 2001: the actions of those who caused the destructive events were uncivilized and barbaric. That does not mean they were unintelligent; it just means they are representative of a way of thinking that is the opposite of:

Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.0.1) - civ‧i‧lized[siv-uh-lahyzd] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–adjective
1.having an advanced or humane culture, society, etc.
2.polite; well-bred; refined.
3.of or pertaining to civilized people


It also means, however, that they are ignorant of the Western culture to the extent that they believe that the Western world will convert to Islam under threat of death... anymore than it would convert to Nazism under threat of death.

Right now, these so-called Jihadists are nothing more than a major annoyance to the West. They cause some damage and hurt some people, but do not represent a substantial threat. But, in the future, if they actually pose a significant threat to the West, there will be an unprecedented price they pay for that... and Geneva convention violations will be the least of their worries.

Civilization is a thin veneer when ones world is threatened. The Jihadists, whether wildly disturbed individuals or rogue nations will learn that even nuclear weapons in their hands ensures nothing except a larger target on their backs. They will learn that even though they may be intelligent, cunning, brutal and fanatic... they will be tremendously stupid to do more than they have already done.

I believe that if there is another military action against a rouge nation or geography dominated by these people, it will not involve many land-based troops or nation rebuilding. The patience of the U.S. is running very short... and the willingness to be "civilized" toward these people is evaporating.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Inflationary Education - Part 2

A recent comment regarding my assertion that the cost of college education, which affects tens of millions of Americans, as a large contributing factor to overall inflation was criticized as unfair with the blame being placed on Medicaid.

While it is true that there have been some cutbacks in state support recently, the fact remains that SINCE 1958 the rate of tuition increase has been from 1.5-2.0 times general inflation.

It really boils down to two things:

  1. colleges and universities can have large increases in tuition year after year because our society places a premium on a college education, and
  2. colleges and universities choose to have large increases in tuition year after year to fund non-teaching efforts (and fairly hefty salaries for college presidents).
Nevertheless, colleges and universities are quick to point out the fiscal management shortcomings of business and government.

Monday, September 04, 2006

Not Feeling Your Pain

Visitors to the Cafe Hayek might be surprised to see how little empathy? there is toward the situation so many wage earners find themselves in today: declining real income. Rather, there are strong arguments made that because technology has improved the products we buy, even if the median income is declining (which they argue is not the case), our standard of living is increasing rapidly.

I think the only qualification is whether declining real incomes (if that is the case) allows the same number of people to buy the kind of products they would have purchased had their incomes kept pace with the costs of living. After all, if you can't afford to buy better products, you can't really enjoy them... or is that too self-evident?

Saturday, September 02, 2006

South of the Border

With all of the focus on the Middle East, most Americans... and the government, too?... seem to be ignoring what is happening in Mexico.

There is a growing movement away from the idea of a free-market, centrist government toward the socialist approach of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The prospect of another Venezuela on our border is not exactly gratifying and could cause some additional political pressure to restrict the border even more than the planned wall and patrols.

Not much has happened to change the Hispanic tradition of bungled government in Mexico, Central America and South America. It looks like stupidity continues to have its own rewards there.

Friday, September 01, 2006

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Fighting Global Warming

From Reuters: California takes lead in U.S. global warming fight

California's Global Warming Solutions Act aims to cut emissions to 1990 levels, or around 25 percent, by 2020 with an enforceable cap and mandatory reporting for top polluters like energy companies.
Presumably, California will have a crash program to build nuclear power plants as well as thousands of wind turbines along the entire Pacific coast (just kidding... they'll be on top of the redwoods).

Actually, it's a admirably plan regardless of whether it has any affect on climate at all. If it leads to faster implementation of better, more efficient, energy technology, then it is a worthwhile effort ... even if it costs the citizens of California a lot of money to implement.

The article went on to quote oil-monger spokesman grousing about the effort:
"It is unfortunate such important legislation is being put together at the last minute without proper review and scrutiny, especially because of its potential to harm the economy," said Tupper Hull, a spokesman for the Western States Petroleum Association.
Hey, who could ever find credibility in anything coming from someone named "Tupper?"

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

ZoomZoom

Traffic has finally started moving along.

From CNNMoney:

2:24pm: Fed officials say they wanted to gather more data on inflation before deciding on future rate rises, according to the minutes of their August meeting. (more)
2:33pm: Central bank can't let inflation build up steam, Dallas Fed President says. (more)
1:03pm: August reading lowest since November on worries about economy, jobs. (more)
The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.

Milton Friedman, no doubt is correct. The Fed is probably not necessary to keep the money supply under control... and unsaid... not cause recessions. See yesterday's post.

Monday, August 28, 2006

Friedman Economics 101

An interesting podcast at Cafe Hayek which takes about 1/2 hour... but worthwhile. Dr. Friedman argues, fairly convincingly, that the Federal Reserve system is pretty much unnecessary... and Dr. Roberts expresses the common frustration that it is, at times, incomprehensible... even to an economist.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Asked and Answered

August 19, 2006 at 16:09:13

34 talking points for Dems. In case they decide they want to govern again.



by Jay Esbe

http://www.opednews.com

1. Is the United States safer without it's allies? with/without ... except for the British... not much difference.

2. Is the United States safer with it's military decimated and trapped in Iraq losing a batallion a month? decimate... "destroy 1/10th"... 1/10 of 2,000,000 troops = 200,000... 1/10 of 200,000 = 20,000... 1/10 of 20,000 = 2,000. So, 1/10 of 1/10 of 1/10 is "decimated"... or hyperbole.

3. Is the United States safer with the entire Arab world enraged on account of an illegal war? No... the entire Arab world is not "enraged" or engaged... only those who really, really want to use religion as an excuse to justify their power grab.... But are we talking about Iraq or the Arab attacks against Israel for 60 years despite the UN sanctioned borders?

4. Did Bush get Bin Laden? Wouldn't have had to try if Clinton had taken him in the 90s.

5. Is the United States safer with the Taliban back in Afghanistan and not enough troops because of Iraq? Perhaps safer with them in the caves than running the country.

6. Was America prepared on September 10th 2001 with Bush explicitly warned and supposedly in charge? What happened to the preparation that the Democrats should have started after the first attack on the World Trade Center and Hezbollah attacks on our troops?

7. Was New Orleans safer with Bush in charge? I thought the mayor of the "chocolate city" was a Democrat?... likewise the Governor of Louisiana.

8. Do you like being told that if you don't support Republicans, you're "on the side of the terrorists"? Not "on the side of the Terrorists"... just on the sidelines for doing anything.

9. Did Bush "solve the middle east problem" or is it now erupting in flames? Did anyone "solve" it. Hey, Bill, what was your solution again?

10. Do you feel safer when Republicans cut port security bugets? Is security spending in total up or down? How much was spent in total by Bill versus George.

11. Did it tell you something when Bush tried to turn New York/New Jersey port security over to an Arab co mpany? That maybe the Democrats who got so upset see all Arabs as Iranians?

12. Does it tell you something that the same Arab company is still in charge of New York/New Jersey port security 6 months after the arrangement was supposedly banned by congress? That the process of turning over the port to another company actually needs another company?

13. Do you wonder why Bush opposed the creation of the 9-11 commission? Hey, that's a good one! Do you suppose he was trying to protect the Democrats who did nothing for the 8 years prior to his taking over just a year prior?

14. Do you wonder why he immediately hired a personal attorney after 9-11? Because he was the one who flew the planes into the towers? Maybe because he understood that rather than address the situation, the Democrats would rather blame someone.

15. Do you wonder why Bush and Cheney REFUSED to be sworn in to swear to tell the truth when questioned by Congress about 9-11? You mean separation of powers? Ooops.

16. Did you liked being lied to 237 times to "justify" attacking Iraq? No, Bush should not have used information that was prepared during the Clinton administration. Shame on him for trusting the Democrats.

17. Do you think a man who was willing to lie 237 times to attack a country which never attacked us, and to kill a hundred thousand innocent people in Iraq, might have been willing to kill three thousand people in New York city to "justify" doing what he wanted to do? Ouch! Stretching that far must really, really hurt.

18. Do you think letting a thousand illegal aliens a day cross our border while confiscating your shampoo at the airport is a legitimate national security policy? Where was that wall and National Guard during the Clinton administration... and which party has long sought immigrants to boost their voting base?

19. Do you think declaring there are "no symbols of national significance" in New York in order to justify cutting proposed anti-terrorism funding is a legitimate national security policy? It's still a lot higher than it was when Clinton was in charge.

20. Do you like the 20,000 Iraq casualties for NOTHING; no WMD, no democracy, no peace, only increasing chaos and death? I voted for it before I voted against it... Saddam was already doing a more efficient job of killing Iraqis, Kurds and Kuwaitis....

21. Do you like starting unnecessary wars and then LOSING them? "I voted for it before I was against it...." Jack Kennedy... oh, wrong war... but the only war we "lost."

22. Do you approve of remaining in a lost cause and watching our soldiers die only to protect Republican politicians from admitting the obvious defeat which has taken place? No, and we should take those 32,000 soldiers out of Korea and 60,000 soldiers out of Germany. Over a half-century is just too long. They've won the economic war. Let's just surrender.

23. Republicans have controlled all 3 branches of government for 6 years, who then is responsible for all this? Voters.

24. Do you think keeping the people who've lied and repeatedly failed national security on the job, to fix what they broke, is smart? No, that's why the Democrats were voted out.

25. Do you like living in the most hated nation on earth now? I don't live in Iran.

26. Do you like having a religious delusional who claimed ""God"" told him to strike at Saddam", with his finger on the nuclear button? No, the Ayatollah should have been assassinated and I'm glad that Israel destroyed the Iranian nuclear program... but I'm sure the Democrats don't have the same feelings now about the current Iranian president and nuclear program.

27. Would you like the United States to attack Iran on false WMD pretenses too? "Fool me once....": Bush couldn't even finish the sentance correctly, can you? No, I think it makes more sense for them to develop their nuclear arsenal and start "Armageddon" in accordance with Islamic tradition.

28. Do you want a man who believes Armageddon is "necessary" to fulfill his religious beliefs? Well, you can't have it both ways now. Do you want us to get rid of the President of Iran or not?

29. Do you want two more years of this nightmare? I agree, Ben Bernanke should be replaced.

30. Would you like Bush and Cheney re-questioned about 9-11 and compelled to answer under oath? Yes, and Clinton and Kerry and ....

31. Had enough fear? No, that's why I continue to play golf.

32. Had enough abuse of power, contempt of congress, violations of the Constitution, violations of the court, arrests, indefinite detainment, and torture without trial? He did not have sex with that woman... so everything else is okay.

33. Had enough of being ashamed of your own country, all on account of a few contemptible criminals? That's a little harsh talking about Hillary that way... she didn't have sex with that man.

34. Tired of being held hostage to elevated terror alerts before elections and having your patriotism questioned when you notice they're compulsive liars? Gosh, I didn't know the Brits where having an election two weeks ago.

If you have had enough, realize that the ONLY way to change this disastrous course, is to elect Democratic representatives who will act to remove Bush from office. A vote for ANY Republican anywhere, is a vote for more of the disasters you've already seen and worse to come. Wow, an asteroid is next?

Okay, I've been chastize for calling Iranians Arabs... which I know they are not because we had Iranian neighbors for 20 years and they fully educated us on the difference... but I didn't think anyone would actually know the difference... Dick!

Monday, August 21, 2006

XX Moderate

I really liked this interview from the Colbert Report (click your "back" button to return to this page):

David Gergen, pt. 1 -- Stephen asks David Gergen how someone can be a passionate moderate.
David Gergen, pt. 2 -- Stephen and David Gergen discuss truthiness.
David Gergen, pt. 3 -- Stephen and David Gergen chat about how political parties have changed.

Strange that the discussions were broadcast in color since most talk about politics is black and white... damn liberal, wimpo Democrats... cowboy, war-mongering Republicans....

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Occupation Forces

50 years... 60 years and still the Forces of the Occupation remain. The few years Americans have had a military presence in Baghdad pales by comparison.

Yet where are the outcries? Billions... trillions of dollars spent on military Occupations after trillions of dollars spent on warfare. Yet no leader has been challenged or criticized for the enormous drain on the economy or the immoral action of decades of Occupation. Iraq is a mere puddle in the oceanic history of Occupation. But memories are short.

When, when I say, will Germany and South Korea have economies and democratic political systems strong enough for U.S. troops to end their Occupation? How long after defeating an enemy must the U.S. stay to ensure democracy and world safety? It is 2006 and here are the Occupation Forces still deployed:

Germany 69,395
South Korea (United States Forces Korea) 32,744
Japan (United States Forces Japan) 35,307
Italy 12,258

That's nearly half of the Occupation Forces deployed to the present war zone of Iraq. That's about 10% of the deployed forces from World War II and 50% of the deployed forces from the Korean War.

With the exception of Italy, the countries listed above are beating our butts in many economic arenas. So why are we there?

It seems that American presidents... Democrats and Republicans... just like the idea of having the American military deployed around the world. The real question is: who is the enemy and why are they our enemy? In a world where the U.S. is roundly criticized for taking military action and having Occupation Forces, perhaps the time has come to take a different tactic.

Perhaps the U.S. should withdraw from all military locations around the world and let other nations fend for themselves. Bring the military home and be ready for any threat to the U.S. When, not if, we are attacked, go after the attackers with ruthlessness. But forget occupying attackers' countries. We spend too much being "good guys". Attack, destroy, withdraw. Leave the attackers in a state of chaos... and take out their supporters for good measure. No more stick and carrot. Just stick. Then forget about them for the next 50 years while they try to rebuild.

Let Germany and Italy deal with the oozing Muslim invasion of their countries. Let Japan deal with China. Let South Korea spend its profits from Samsung and Hyundai on guarding its own borders.

Sure, it's a high-risk strategy, but it is better than having Occupations Forces someplace for a few years... and trying to be "good guys" spreading "democracy" to the singular-minded. Take all of the money we spend protecting the world and replace it with an effort to create a Fortress America where we are self-sufficient and can tell the rest of the world to solve their own problems... and leave us alone... or else... and stay away... we don't like you anymore....

Hey, "Fortress America"... that's catchy. Wonder why no one else thought of that?

American exceptionalism oscillates between isolationism and evangelicalism. Virtue must be protected in America from a corrupt world—or imposed by America on a corrupt world. At times (such as the two decades between the First and Second World Wars), American exceptionalists have wanted to create a Fortress America and leave the rest of the world to succumb to decadence, anarchy, and tyranny. In other circumstances, American exceptionalists have been energized by a millennial fervor for reforming the world. The two impulses have sometimes coexisted. In the 1890s, for example, one fervent Protestant evangelical politician, William Jennings Bryan, denounced American imperialism, and an equally fervent Protestant evangelical preacher, Josiah Strong, argued that it was America’s destiny to Christianize the world by means of an expansive foreign policy.

The isolationist wing and the evangelical wing of American exceptionalism share a dread of alliances: It might be necessary to make immoral concessions to allies to enlarge or maintain a coalition, and the purity of America’s purpose in foreign policy would then be diluted. Even worse, alliances might infect the godly American republic with Old World viruses—autocracy, perhaps, or collectivism. This fear explains why the United States participated in World War I as an associated power, not an ally. It explains, too, why the United States for many years refused to grant diplomatic recognition to the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China; merely to engage in ordinary diplomatic relations with an evil regime is to condone its crimes. American exceptionalism is responsible as well for the frequent use of economic and military sanctions to punish all kinds of transgressions by foreign countries. And its influence can be sense both in the American Left’s enthusiasm for private disinvestment campaigns against countries with objectionable governments and in much of the American Right’s reflexive unilateralism and suspicion of international organizations and treaties.



Okay, so maybe a few people have thought about it....

Friday, August 18, 2006

Michigan Interstate Speedway

From the Road Commission for Oakland County interactive traffic map.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE ENLARGEMENT

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Progress

Moving forward... it has a lot of nuances. Toward a goal... improvement... growth... or literally moving forward.

For as long as I care to remember, I have contacted various agencies regarding traffic problems related to "bad signals". I was at it again yesterday and today. Perhaps unfairly, I criticized the Oakland County Road Commission (Michigan) regarding poor signal progression along main roads. Turns out that my favorite example, Telegraph Road, is under the authority of MDOT, an agency to which I have written often.

Traffic management is one of those mundane efforts that, ironically, affects us a lot more than terrorist threats, but get little public attention. Poor traffic management cost millions... billions?... of dollars in wasted fuel and time. The solutions are there; the interest to implement the solutions apparently is not. The USDOT has an interesting article online that was published in 2002 and is still very relevant.

Perhaps my next effort in this arena will be to provide a voice for motorists to express their feelings about this situation. $3.00 per gallon gasoline makes everyone more conscious about forced waste.

Previous posts:

That was just last year. It seems that unless there is a threat, government really doesn't care if we are upset about something. They have their ways.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Victory

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah declared that his guerrillas achieved a "strategic, historic victory" over Israel.

AP Photo




















Hmmmm.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Inflationary Education

The Federal Reserve is concerned that the price of oil may be causing inflationary pressures in the U.S.

Well, the real culprit is the cost of tuition.

Universities, the bastion of intellectuals telling us how to live, have long known that they can be unreasonable about their tuition increases because they have the lock on the "credentials" box that people need to access for their professional futures.

Universities can be arbitrary, frivilous, wasteful, autocratic, and act with impugnity. They are the keepers of the keys.

Universities are the U.S. version of the oil cartel. Like the sheiks of the Middle East, the college boards can squeeze the people for more and more money with the promise of the good life. Unfortunately, more and more graduates are finding that they have paid a lot more for something that isn't really getting them very far... just like oil.

Friday, August 11, 2006

A Taxing Problem

I ran across this on Google that is as close to perfection as one can come:

"On my income tax 1040 it says 'Check this box if you are blind.' I wanted to put a check mark about three inches away."
- Tom Lehrer

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Hey, Connecticut ... Didja Hear The One About The...

British police thwart aircraft bomb plot

By DANICA KIRKA, Associated Press Writer 57 minutes ago

LONDON - British authorities said Thursday they had thwarted a terrorist plot to simultaneously blow up several aircraft heading to the U.S. using explosives smuggled in carry-on luggage. Heathrow was closed to most flights from Europe, and British Airways canceled all its flights Thursday between the airport and points in Britain, Europe and Libya.
Yup, Connecticut. We just have to sit down and reason with these people. We are reasonable people, so they must be reasonable people, too. Eh?

Why couldn't Joe Lieberman see this?

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Oil as a Corrosive Substance

So the British Petroleum pipeline from Prudhoe Bay has a leak from corrosion.

What is it in oil that is corrosive, anyway? I sure don't want that stuff in my car's engine!

And water... that causes rust, too. Keep that out of my car's cooling system.

And gasoline... that's explosive and dangerous. Keep that away from my car, too.

Hmmm. I could ride a horse, but then I have to contend with horse shit. And if this bull goes on any longer, you are going to get buried in bullshit.
But here is the weirdest part.

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates

It's not as if they said they were not going to hit us, they were just not going to hit us harder... for now.

The Federal Reserve held their rate that they charge other banks for borrowing at 5.25% which doesn't sound all that bad except it translates into some pretty high rates at the consumer level.

Despite all of the talk about protecting us from inflation, I suspect it is more about protecting banks from inflation. After all, they don't want to lend money that can be paid back with inflated currency. So banks protect themselves, not us, from inflation by raising interest rates.

Monday, August 07, 2006

Are We Better Off Now?

Dr. Don Boudreaux writes in Cafe Hayek that:

Whether or not Americans are better off these days is a loaded political question. But one thing's for sure - their homes keep getting bigger.

Any American alive today who remembers 1973 and who continues to believe that ordinary Americans are no (or only slightly) materially better off today than we were thirty years ago is blind or seriously deceived.
My response was:

Again, only speculating, but my experience has show that the comparison of "household" income to 4 decades ago may be a little akin to comparing "work" with "exertion".

In this case, the obvious difference is the comparitor "household". If the percentage of two-income "household" incomes has increased in 40 years, then the comparison is purely ornamental. One would need to look at inflation-adjusted personal income to see why people might be getting the perception that they are "treading water".

After all, if it takes two people to live a lifestyle that is twice as costly as that which one person (on average) can provide, then we have only changed the definition of "household" in the sense that two incomes are now the basis for income rather than one.

Statistics that I have come across indicate that two-income homes have roughly doubled since the early 1970s. The jump from the mid-30%s to the mid-60%s could go a long way in explaining "household income" versus "individual income".

Then one has to look at the cost side of the equation... two cars to drive to work, two sets of work clothes, etc., plus childcare expense. Not really treading water... just a lot more paid work occurring.

Eh?

So we are economically better off. Are we better off? Young people have to agonize about whether or not to have children because of the economic impact it will have on their lives. Then if they have children, they have to agonize about sending them off to daycare at the tender age of two months or not. Then they have to agonize about how they can juggle their work schedules when the children get sick. And so on and so on.

I recall when our first child was born that we were a two-income household that quickly became a one-income household. Were we better off? Yes.

Saturday, August 05, 2006

Now Others Are Saying It

Check out this on Robert Reich's blog.

On June 8 I wrote the Michigan was already in a recession and on July 29 I had an entry title very similar to Mr. Reich's.

But Big Ben's clock face shows only one time... Inflation Standard Time.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Fearing Inflation

Yes, I'd say that inflation is what everyone is worried about right now.

74 Degrees at 74 Degrees

We live in a cold world compared to the geological near past.

Now, naturally, there is concern among some that the climate may be warming a bit. After all, it has been hundreds of thousands of years since mankind left the tropics to settle in colder areas of the planet. Certainly, our life-styles could be affected by warmer average global temperatures.

But, by and large, the earth remains a cold planet compared to the planet it was when there was an expansion of the diversity of life during its lush period 50-60 million years ago (98% point of life's timeline on this planet... beginning about 2.5 billion years ago). In fact, our current condition is a planet that is rather sparse with life comparatively.

Nature has a way of changing things despite our best efforts at trying to control everything. Little things like the gap between North and South America closing certainly did more than man could ever hope to accomplish. Sure, we may have some influence on the change, but we have a long way to go before the arctic reaches 74 degrees F again (Alaska averages between 10 and 40 degrees F).

The real question is: would we have a more or less habitable world... not just for man? I don't believe that question has really been posed... much less answered.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Denial

We should talk about this. We should just sit down and stop fighting and come together like the reasonable people that we are... and talk about this.

Mr. Hezbollah: "Death to Zionists; death to Jews."

Mr. Israeli: "How am I supposed to talk with him?"

Mr. World Opionion: "Now we all know that those kinds of outbursts are mere rhetoric for local consumption.

Mr. Hezbollah: "We will kill them all; that is our mission."

Mr. Israeli: "And just what is the point of discussion here?"

Mr. World Opinion: "Well, now, we are sure that with the right incentives, there can be peace for all."

Mr. Hezbollah: "We will destroy them and leave them in pieces. They can have their pieces."

Mr. Israeli: "What part of fanatical terrorist don't you understand?"

Mr. World Opinion: "They are just trying to establish their right to exist."

Mr. Hezbollah: "We are the voice of the Prophet!"

Mr. Israeli: "Excuse me, but we have to deal with some incoming missiles."

Mr. World Opinion: "Now you know that those things are really not all that effective. You should try to ignore them and stop targeting women and children."

Mr. Hezbollah: "We will not stop until the Zionist pigs are gone from the face of the earth."

Mr. Israeli: "Okay, then. My jet fighter negotiators are on their way."

Mr. World Opinion: "Once again, the Israelis have over-reacted and we will all have to suffer with higher oil prices."

Monday, July 31, 2006

Then and Now... The Same Again

I was enjoying Robert Reich's blog, which had been recommended by my oldest son, and then I read his ramblings for yesterday and got the feeling that he had just slipped into a distorted dimension of some sort. He is obviously upset with the situation in the Middle East, but somehow perceives it to be a recent issue... all George Bush's fault.

I left a comment that basically said this is the second (or third or fourth) chapter of the book of Jimmy Carter. Not a lot different which is pretty spooky. Rapid escalation of oil prices, Iranian actions to foment trouble in the Middle East, and Israel calling the bluff and bluster of the radical Muslims.

But somehow it is all the fault of the U.S. and Israel and the radical Muslims are just poor people getting unjustly trampled on.

Puke.

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Global Warming and the Dust Bowl

There is a hot spell coming this way to Michigan! Global warming.

Well... maybe... maybe not. The projected high temperature here for this spell is 98 degrees. That's a mere 14 degrees cooler than the hot spell of the mid-1930s. In fact, a look at "record" temperatures for many states shows the mid-1930s to be considerably more uncomfortable than we are experiencing now. Maybe that's the reason there was a "dust bowl".

Oh, I know the argument... it's the average temperature, not the extremes. And it's the average for the whole world not just local temperatures.

Just one thought here... maybe record keeping wasn't all that great... or accurate... a century ago. So we need to look at the results of the weather. Gee, that's not fair... the weather's too cyclical.

Saturday, July 29, 2006

The "R" Word

Housing Slows, Taking Big Toll on the Economy

The NY Times headline today is what I have been saying for months... not that it took a genius to know this was going to happen.

“Housing is going from being far and away the most important contributor to growth to being a measurable drag, and it’s happening gracefully so far,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, a research company. “But there’s now a growing and measurable risk that things don’t go according to plan.”

The biggest risk, economists say, is that the optimism that fed the real-estate boom will reverse dramatically. The number of homes for sale has surged in recent months, particularly in once-hot markets, like the Northeast, Florida, California and parts of the Southwest. As builders delay land acquisition and construction it could reduce employment and spending in the coming months.

For much of the last five years, housing — along with health care — was also one of the only reliable generators of jobs. From the start of 2001, when the Fed began cutting its benchmark rate to steady a faltering economy, until early last year, the housing sector added 1.1 million jobs.

The rest of economy lost 1.2 million jobs over the same period, according to an analysis by Moody’s Economy.com.

Well, let's see. The Federal Reserve didn't seem to think this was a problem. Most economists didn't seem to think this was a problem. Well, maybe it did take a genius. Okay, just kidding.

Here's what is not being said: the existing home market is far worse than the new home market. People who have lost some of those 1.2 million jobs can't sell their homes and can't pay for them. Watch for an avalance of repossessions and then see what happens to the housing market.

Once again - Ben Bernanke, you have screwed the pooch!

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Current Account Deficit

Today at Cafe Hayek, Professor Don Boudreaux started an interesting discussion on the benefits of having a current account deficit.

His argument for wanting such a deficit revolve around the concept that the U.S. is providing a "wealth-storage" facility for foreigners. That means that U.S. consumers get cheap products and the U.S. government gets plenty of buyers for it's IOUs and the economy gets some boost foreign investment in businesses.

It does make sense as an argument and, perhaps, it works well that way. A constant net inflow of cash should keep the economy humming along. Yet it make many people uneasy about the reliance on the Chinese who have a $160 billion current account surplus with the U.S. Yes that is only 1% or so of the total U.S. economy, but a lot of key business depends on the Chinese now. And there are many who don't have a warm and gooey feeling when it comes to the Chinese having our long-term best interests in mind.

I guess the long-term impact won't really be known for awhile. Let's hope it doesn't turn out to be the way some people think:

US current account deficit 'unsustainable' – NY Fed chief
By Christopher Swann in Washington
Published: January 23 2006 19:29 | Last updated: January 23 2006 19:29

Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve, on Monday dismissed the view that the US current account deficit was sustainable, suggesting the risk of a sudden fall in the dollar would grow the longer the trade gap widened.

Friday, July 21, 2006

Parable of the Bad Neighbor

There once was a large family that had a few "bad apples" as large families are often wont to do.

This family lived in a poor part of town, but the people were generally pretty good to each other. But this family had some relatives that would drop in unexpectedly and stay for a long time. These relatives were a pretty rough bunch who had too much time on their hands. They took particular delight in tormenting the next door neighbors who were a minority in their town. They yelled threats to the neighbors and vandalized their property. Sometimes they would beat up on the neighbor's kids.

The neighbors called the police many times, but the nasty relatives were not dissuaded from their rotten ways. The neighbors were forced to depend on themselves for protection and to react to what the nasty relatives did in the best way they could.

One day, the nasty relatives made a particularly nasty attack on the neighbors' kids, so the neighbors promptly retaliated against the nasty relatives. Whereupon, the nasty relatives and their host family promptly called the police and newspapers to vilify the neighbors. There was a public outcry against the neighbors for not being more tolerant of the family and the nasty relatives. The neighbors were portrayed as bullies and worse. Even some of the neighbors' friends asked why they couldn't just be good neighbors. These friends said the neighbors should sit down and talk nicely with the nasty relatives. After all, no matter what happens, you should always be a good neighbor.

So the neighbors sat down and talked with the nasty relatives. They even offered some gifts as tokens of their sincerity. The nasty relatives took the gifts and said that they could all live in peace from now on.

That night, the nasty relatives burned down the neighbors' garage.

Moral of the story: oh, go ahead and fill in the blank yourself.

Monday, July 17, 2006

Ethanol or Diesel?

In the Detroit Free Press:

Clean diesel fuel

The government wants to mandate 35 m.p.g. by 2017; automobile manufacturers want to ramp up E85 fuel availability. Presently, average fuel economy is anticipated at 27.5 mpg.

Today's automobiles run on gasoline or 10% ethanol/90% gasoline. Since ethanol contains only 75% of the energy of gasoline, moving to a greater reliance on ethanol would eliminate all of the technology gains required to get a fleet average of 35 m.p.g. True, ethanol would reduce U.S. demand for petroleum, but so would diesel-electric hybrids such as the Ford concept, the Reflex, which would get an estimated 65 m.p.g.

The technology for better mileage exists. European diesel-based powertrains that use clean fuels could be used in the United States, but oil companies in the United States have chosen to take their profits and run rather than produce the fuels that would allow use of these technologies.

Friday, July 14, 2006

Hate Crime?

Sometimes you have to wonder if human nature is to be cooperative and kind or selfish and cruel.

My sister-in-law has a grandson that lives in a "socially integrated" neighborhood... okay, people with different ethnic and racial backgrounds. It happens to be near a "not so socially integrated" neighborhood with "economically and ethically challenged" people.

The other night, some of the "not so socially integrated" were busily breaking a few "social rules of conduct" when they were chased off by the "social rules of conduct enforcers" and hid in the "socially integrated" neighborhood. Unfortunately, they happened to hide near my sister-in-law's grandson's home. He was returning late with his girl friend who was driving. She dropped him off and drove to a turn about at the end of the street. By the time she returned to his home going in the opposite direction, she saw he was being beaten by 4 to 6 of the "not so socially integrated" people. She acted quickly to call 911 and the operator directed her call to police who were just a couple of blocks away looking for this particular "band of brothers." Then they began to approach her car so she sounded the horn and brought out some neighbors who chased off the attackers.

The beaten young man was taken to the hospital where, fortunately, he was determined to have a lot of painful bruises and a bad concussion, but nothing more serious. If the young woman had not needed to turn around her car and return, the young man could have been killed without anyone knowing.

So the question still remains: is it human nature to be cooperative and kind or selfish and cruel? Don't be too fast here. Remember, the young woman was in danger herself and she stayed to be sure that the young man received help. And the neighbor primarily responsible for chasing off the "not so socially integrated" attackers happened to be of the same racial background as the attackers.

Was this a hate crime as the government likes to define it? The "not so socially integrated" attackers were a different racial group than the young man who was attacked. Had the racial backgrounds been reversed, there would be no question in the minds of government prosecutors.

So what does this tell us? 1) the idea of a "hate crime" above and beyond an assault is probably stupid because an attack on another person is always hateful at its core and 2) because such a definition is not consistently applied, it is stupid... oh, I said that.

But oddly, the results of this incident were most revealing about human nature. The young man's grandmother and great-grandmother both had similar reactions to the attack: extreme anger... despite their personal and deep Christian faith. Would it be enough anger to retaliate? Probably not. But it is enough anger not to forget or forgive.

So what does this tell us? Simply this: we can put all of the labels we want on people and actions and beliefs, but when it something affects us very personally, we will forget those "higher" attitudes and react with our deepest feelings. We are human, after all.

In the middle east, the Israelis and Palestinians continue to fight.

Goosing the Golden Egg?

Some random thoughts about the state of the nation and the actions of the government:

  1. The government seems intent on being Big Brother in all things, but ends up being Big Bumbler instead... witness FEMA, et all.
  2. The economy is heading toward a hard recession whether the data shows it now or not... and the Federal Reserve is the trigger mechanism.
  3. Oil prices are annoying, but the market will adjust... just like it did centuries ago when tulip bulbs reached astronomical prices... if the government will just step out of the way and let market forces work on the supply side, too.
  4. Free markets seem to be supported by the government for corporations, but not individuals (tip of the hat to Dick Pasky)... can outsource work, but can't buy prescriptions from Canada, respectively.
Could it be that our government is simply interferring too much with the economy and that might be the reason that boulders appear in the road? Nah. Our government knows what we want and need and how to best provide it for us... doesn't it?

"When we consider that this government is charged with the external and mutual relations only of these States; that the States themselves have principal care of our persons, our property and our reputation, constituting the great field of human concerns, we may well doubt whether our organization is not too complicated, too expensive; whether offices and officers have not been multiplied unnecessarily and sometimes injuriously to the service they were meant to promote." --Thomas Jefferson: 1st Annual Message, 1801. ME 3:331

Sunday, July 09, 2006

The Best of Times

Despite the negative posts about the state of the State of Michigan, we had a wonderful week with family and friends celebrating birthdays, anniversaries and the wedding of my second son to a very pretty young woman.

Great weather contributed to the fun and great food to the enjoyment.

Yes, this past week was the best of times.

Friday, July 07, 2006

Government - Trust Us

I continue to be amazed the those free-market economists fail to even mention how government interference with free markets really screws things up.

Investors were looking for a tame number to ease inflation fears, but what they got may have been too low.

Employers added a smaller-than-expected 121,000 new workers to their payrolls last month, the Labor Department said.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 160,000 jobs to have been created in June, up from 75,000 in May.

Investors hoped for a tame jobs report that might help persuade the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate hiking campaign, as the Fed has said any future increases will depend on the most recent data.

Concern that the Fed will raise rates too high, cutting off cheap capital and crippling economic growth, has weighed on markets for months.

But Friday's number may have been a tad too low, raising questions of economic growth all on its own.

Light, sweet crude oil rose 43 cents to $75.57 a barrel in electronic trade, after hitting a fresh record high of $75.78, and Brent futures gained 62 cents at $74.70.

The government that raises interest rates to "protect" us from inflation is the same government that adds injury to injury by taxing gasoline which is priced so high that the economy is faltering... and by the way the same government that cripples oil exploration and new refinery development... which by the way adds to the price of gasoline... which by the way accelerates inflation... which by the way costs us jobs. OOOOOOOOHHH! I love it when a plan comes together (from the "A-Team").

You should trust your economic future to government bureaucrats. After all, look how well they did in New Orleans.

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Happy Interdependence Day

To Whitney and Kevin who were married yesterday... Love, Happiness and Success!

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Unemployment Rate Drops

Oh, there are fewer jobs available... it's just that workers are leaving the state so the unemployment goes elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Ford Motor Company is exporting more jobs.

If enough employers close up shop and enough people leave the state, Michigan will become a full employment state and a shining example for the rest of the country... at least statistically.

What did Disraeli say?

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Irwin Keller Says

Inflation is not the worst thing.

Federal Reserve - Function, Form or What?

In its own words:

As you can see, money is created in our economy in two ways that are different but related. The Federal Reserve begins the process by creating "raw money" when it buys a Treasury security on the open market. The banking system can then expand this amount of money by lending it.

On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve sees the nation is threatened with inflation, it may sell some of the securities in its portfolio. Buyers pay the Fed for these securities out of their bank accounts. At this point, places like Trustworthy Bank and Reliable Savings and Loan have less money to lend. In this way, the Federal Reserve removes money from the economy since the money paid to the Fed does not go back into any sort of bank account.

A second way in which the Federal Reserve can influence the economy is by raising or lowering the discount rate, the interest rate charged financial institutions when they borrow reserves from the Fed. Although seldom used, discount rate changes can be powerful signals of the direction of monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve can also have a powerful impact on the flow of money and credit by either raising or lowering reserve requirements, the percentage of their deposits that financial institutions must keep on reserve. If the Fed lowers reserve requirements, this can lead to more money being injected into the economy since it frees up funds that were previously set aside. On the other hand, if the Fed raises reserve requirements, it reduces the amount of money that institutions are free to loan out or invest. However, the Fed is cautious about changing reserve requirements and has done so only occasionally because of the dramatic impact it can have on both financial institutions and the economy.

Two points when you look at the chart below for the past 20 years:
  1. you have to go back 15 years to find rates as high as they are today (except for 2001 when the Fed precipitated a recession)
  2. during the 15 years from 3/86 to 3/01, the rate was change 28 times; during the 5 years from 3/01 to today, the rate also has changed 28 times - three times the frequency of the previous 15 years - the Federal Reserve has completely changed its role and become an activist organization trying to control the economy.

HISTORICAL DISCOUNT RATE*

Period in Effect
Percent Per
Annum
Percent
Surcharge**

04/21/86 to 07/10/86

6.50

0

07/11/86 to 08/20/86

6

0

08/21/86 to 09/07/87

5.50

0

09/08/87 to 08/08/88

6

0

08/09/88 to 02/23/89

6.50

0

02/24/89 to 12/18/90

7

0

12/19/90 to 01/31/91

6.50

0

02/01/91 to 04/29/91

6

0

04/30/91 to 09/12/91

5.50

0

09/13/91 to 11/05/91

5

0

11/06/91 to 12/22/91

4.50

0

12/23/91 to 07/01/92

3.50

0

07/02/92 to 05/16/94

3

0

05/17/94 to 08/17/94

3.50

0

08/18/94 to 11/15/94

4

0

11/16/94 to 02/01/95

4.75

0

02/02/95 to 01/30/96

5.25

0

01/31/96 to 10/14/98

5

0

10/15/98 to 11/18/98

4.75

0

11/19/98 to 08/24/99

4.50

0

08/25/99 to 11/17/99

4.75

0

11/18/99 to 02/02/00

5

0

02/03/00 to 03/20/00

5.25

0

03/21/00 to 05/17/00

5.50

0

05/18/00 to 01/03/01

6

0

01/04/01 to 01/30/01

5.50

0

01/31/01 to 03/19/01

5

0

03/20/01 to 04/17/01

4.50

0

04/18/01 to 05/16/01

4

0

05/17/01 to 06/27/01

3.50

0

06/28/01 to 08/21/01

3.25

0

08/22/01 to 09/16/01

3

0

09/17/01 to 10/02/01

2.50

0

10/03/01 to 11/06/01

2

0

11/07/01 to 12/12/01

1.50

0

12/13/01 to 11/06/02

1.25

0

11/07/02 to 01/08/03 .75 0

01/09/03 to 06/25/03

2.25

0

06/26/03 to 06/29/04 2.0 0
06/30/04 to 08/09/04 2.25 0
08/10/04 to 09/20/04 2.50 0
09/21/04 to 11/09/04 2.75 0
11/10/04 to 12/13/04 3.00 0
12/14/04 to 02/01/05 3.25 0
02/02/05 to 03/21/05 3.50 0
03/22/05 to 05/02/05 3.75 0

05/03/05 to 06/29/05

4.00 0
06/30/05 to 08/08/05 4.25 0

08/09/05 to 09/19/05

4.50 0
09/20/05 to 10/31/05 4.75 0
11/01/05 to 12/12/05 5.00 0
12/13/05 to 02/01/06 5.25 0
02/02/06 to 03/27/06 5.50 0
03/28/06 to 05/09/06 5.75 0
05/10/06 to present 6.00 0

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Friday, June 09, 2006

Excessive Spending - It's All Related

Economists say that the Current Account deficit doesn't matter... and may be a good thing. But there is agreement that inflation is a bad thing. No connection, huh?

In a report released Thursday, William Powers, managing director of PIMCO's portfolio management and investment strategy groups, said the bond management firm has increased its currency exposure to 5 percent from 3 percent.

The fund was constrained to limit its currency exposure to 3 percent in the past because of volatility in the currency market.

"Today with the likelihood that the dollar is about to embark on its next downward leg, PIMCO's Investment Committee has increased the tolerance for currency exposures," said Powers.

PIMCO will also maintain a diversified portfolio to include the yen, euro, and emerging market currencies.

Overall, Powers has a bearish outlook on the dollar, saying the magnitude of the U.S. currency's downtrend is "as great as 20-25 percent, and perhaps greater than that."

With the Federal Reserve expected to pause its monetary tightening soon, Power said the markets would refocus on the large U.S. current account deficit, currently at 7 percent of gross domestic product. The current account is a measure of international trade, in physical goods and international transactions.

The roughly $805 billion U.S. current account gap has contributed to dollar weakness in three of the last five years.

He also cited the diminished appetite for the greenback and other U.S. assets by various central banks including oil producers whose revenues are dollar-denominated.

So, let's see, current account deficit is good and inflation is bad, but current account deficit seems to be contributing to the weakness of the dollar which makes imported items... such as oil?... more expensive which contributes to inflation which is bad.

Oh, these economists are so much smarter than the rest of us because they can see that the current account deficit is good... and that the actions of the Federal Reserve Board to raise interest rates and stifle the economy are needed because it is their job to do something about inflation which is bad... and the current account deficit is good... but the weakness of the dollar will reduce the current account deficit because U.S. products will be cheaper... and that is bad because U.S. employment will increase as we buy fewer imports... and, oh well....

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Recession

Okay, others are thinking it. I'm saying it. Michigan is in a recession. Housing markets elsewhere are tanking. Just talked with my wife's brother-in-law in Virginia. The spigot just got turned off there.

Ben Bernanke et al at the Federal Reserve has just cost the U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars and he feels good about it.

That's what happens when the government tries to run the economy.

Monday, June 05, 2006

Oh, Well....

DJIA11048.72 -199.15 (-1.77%)
NASDAQ2169.62 -49.79 (-2.24%)
NYSE8145.53 -159.72 (-1.92%)
S&P 5001265.29 -22.93 (-1.78%)

Our economy has reaped ample rewards in recent years from the achievement and maintenance of price stability. Although challenges confront us, as they always do, I am confident that we will be able to preserve those hard-won benefits while promoting sustainable economic growth.

-- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke

Uh huh, yeah, uh huh.

Friday, June 02, 2006

Excessive Spending - Too Much Equals Too Little

Having said several times that the Fed's wisdom in raising interet rates should be challenged, it seems that others are coming on board:

From CNNMoney.com

While investors were hoping for a weak number that might lead the Fed to stop raising interest rates, one analyst said the jobs number was so small that it causes concern the economy may be headed for downturn.

'I think this was a horrible number," said Briggs, "It means the economy is falling down."

Briggs said the low number overshadowed any positive effect a halt in interest rate hikes might have.

"Yippee, the Fed might pause," he said with more than a tinge of sarcasm. "I'm a growth guy."

Other analysts shared Briggs' view.

"It was like, 'Wow,'" said Hugh Johnson, chairman of the asset management company Johnson Illington Advisors. "What we're seeing today is the 'R' jitters."

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Excessive Spending - What Always Works

Oil prices continue to remain high despite slowing consumption and rising interest rates in the U.S.

In previous posts, I have voiced the opinion that the Fed's action to fight oil-price based inflation with higher interest rates will slow the U.S. economy... which has always worked..., but not much else. The latest data showing China's demand for oil rising almost 11% over prior year is an example of how forces outside of the Federal Reserve's control are nullifying the global effect of U.S. interest rates and driving the U.S. economy toward another downturn... in areas other than where recession level unemployment already exists.

Meanwhile, actions that could lead to less reliance on oil are being ignored or fought:

  • Building new nuclear power facilities
  • Developing non-fossil fuel alternatives that can be generated from power supplied by nuclear energy:
    • Hydrogen gas fuels
    • Battery-only vehicles
    • Fuel cells
I learned a long time ago in business not to leave key decisions to finance staff. They tend to focus too tightly on the immediate rather than the long term and that can and does lead to really bad strategic decisions.

Monday, May 29, 2006

Memory

Life after death. Heaven. Hell. Unknowns.

Those who lived, fought, protected, and died before us are the only ones who can answer the really big questions. The rest of us are left with the memories of who they were or what they did. It is our ability to document our histories as a species that give us a chance to progress as a species.

Today we honor those who served in our armed forces; especially those who gave their lives to allow us to go forward under the laws and traditions of free people. We preserve their histories because they protected ours.

Friday, May 19, 2006

A New World Order?

The Detroit Red Wings had the best regular season record and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

The Detroit Pistons had the best regular season record and are losing in the second round of the playoffs.

The Detroit Tigers have the best regular season records and ... what am I saying... have the best regular season record??? The Detroit Tigers???

Where was I?

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Open Letter to the Federal Reserve Board

CHICAGO, May 18 (Reuters) - It is "pretty clear" that the U.S. housing market is cooling off but it looks poised for a soft landing given overall strength in the economy, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday.

"Pretty clear" and "cooling" are dramatic understatements for Michigan. Actions by the Federal Reserve are causing severe economic problems for this state which "clearly" never recovered from the previous recession. A 7.2% unemployment rate and a housing market that has collapsed are viewed only within the context of the "national average".

That's like treating a broken neck with message therapy. On average, the rest of the body isn't in bad shape... just needs some adjustments.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Excessive Spending - The Fed: Misery Loves Company

Soooo... the Fed will make sure that more people share the inflationary pain of having things less affordable by making more things less affordable.

Quick doctor, the patient is bleeding profusely so we must draw out some blood so that he won't have as much to bleed out. Well, you have to admit that there is a certain logic to that.

Duh!

Oh, and one piece of evidence that the Federal Reserve is VERY EFFECTIVE at whatever it tries:

Michigan Unemployment Rate
(Seasonally Adjusted)

April 2006
Change Over Month

7.2 %
+ 0.4

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)