Global Warming - Duh, No

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

I realized after receiving a comment regarding yesterday's post that my sarcasm may have been too subtle.

Let me make it clear: more snow and long stretches of cold weather have not convinced me that there is runaway global warming. As I have explained before, my view is that over this past century we have seen a sine wave oscillation of temperatures...

[source]

Compare that with monthly high temperature records for the 50 U.S. states...

[I intend to update this for 2007]

Obviously, one can look for an upward trend... or any number of trends... from temperature data, but the fact is that the temperature data is so suspect...

• different data sources [various configurations of ground and satellite equipment]
  
• inconsistent siting [rooftops, parking lots, next to air conditioner condenser units]
  
• urban and land use change effects

that it is virtually impossible to observe the claimed impact of global temperature changes.

While it may be cold and foggy here, I'm not in that much of a fog that I mistake this...

for global warming....

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Global Warming Burying Us In Snow

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

There are many theories about global warming, but the one that clinches it for me is that as the earth warms, there is more moisture in the air and that leads to more snow [which is why global warming causes glaciers to melt in the northern hemisphere and the Antarctic ice to grow... you can have it your way].

Here in Michigan, despite bitterly cold weather for the past several weeks, we have been getting a lot of snow.

So, I guess there is nothing left to do but admit I have been wrong about global warming and... despite others showing that weather stations on the ground have a warm bias and CO2 increases being poorly correlated to temperature changes and climate models having wildly wrong relationship to temperatures the last few years...

it's snowing and cold in Michigan again, so that has to prove that we are experiencing global warming.

Well, I'm glad I finally reached consensus. I just can't save it on my GPS system.

...

Political Scandals

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Ah, political scandals! Yesterday, I wrote about a little sex-scandal in which the mayor of Detroit was involved. Small potatoes....

In a little less than a year, the next President of the United States will be sworn into office. Between now and then there will be approximately 361 days of real nastiness [leap year this year].

A little searching already provides some nasty tidbits. Search as follows: "[candidate name] scandal" .... Headlines below are copied from the source which is linked.

Just remember, there is a difference between an accusation and a truth. Just ask the follower of any of the politicians listed below. Still, if the smoke keeps coming, there just might be a fire.

Examples of the Republican "scandals" [click on the links for the full nasty]

• John McCain - Prisoner Abuse Scandal Puts McCain in Spotlight Once Again
• Mitt Romney - Three Days, Three Scandals, One Bottom Line: Romney Not Ready for Prime Time
• Mike Huckabee - Huckabee's dubious achievement
• Rudy Giuliani - Your Ultimate Kerik -Giuliani Scandal Tip-Sheet

Examples of the Democrat "scandals" [click on the links for the full nasty]

• John Edwards - PRESIDENTIAL CHEATING SCANDAL! ALLEGED AFFAIR COULD WRECK JOHN EDWARDS' CAMPAIGN BID [note source: National Enquirer]
• Barack Obama - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battle over scandal rumor

wonder what he's thinking...

• Hillary Clinton - Wow! I can't pick just one... especially if you combine the search with husband Bill. Just type in "Clinton scandal" and get comfortable.

In the great American tradition... political scandals... I'd have to say that the Clintons win hands down... but we definitely lose.

The rest of the world has opinions, too. Here's one from the Russian news Pravda.

But who can believe anything in Pravda?

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Detroit Mayor's Message

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Martin Luther King's holiday was just celebrated. One of his famous speeches had the line:

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.

Fast forward about 45 years to 2008 and the city of Detroit. Meet mayor Kwame Kilpatrick.

Mayor Kilpatrick has had an interesting reign as king of Detroit politics. He has managed to be scandalous without being caught by scandal. Alas, poor King Kwame, caught by your own words... or were they Bill Clinton's? I did not have sex with that woman.

As reported by The Detroit News:

Kilpatrick wrote [Christine] Beatty [Kilpatrick's Chief of Staff]: "I've been dreaming all day about having you all to myself for 3 days. Relaxing, laughing, talking, sleeping and making love."

Well, sexual affairs between political leaders and women attracted to power have been going on for as long as humans have been organized in any fashion, so this is not a big surprise. And given the propensity of Detroit voters to idolize any politician that seems to embrace the popular "culture," King Kwame was certainly not going to be shunned by those voters.

The problem was that his attempts at hiding his trysts were the reason that Deputy Police Chief Gary Brown and a Kilpatrick body guard, Harold Nelthrope, were fired.

They were trying to be men of good character by revealing the affair. Such stupidity. Detroit voters are not interested in the content of one's character, but in the ... oh, I can't write that, can I?

What's the Mayor's message? Maybe something like, "If I was one of those white boys, you could fire my ass, but, hey, I'm cool and this ain't nothin' to get upset about."

Except that this cool dude just cost the City of Detroit about $9 million in lawsuits from his 3 days or so of fun.

We'll have to see how much lack of character can be overcome by the color of one's skin in Detroit. Oh, dear, I wrote that.

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Employment Statistics and Meaning

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides monthly data about employment nationally, regionally and by state.

Here are four looks. Care to guess the geography to which these data belong?

Let's start with the last one first with a current unemployment rate of 7.6%.

• Unemployment rate is fairly steady but quite high
• Number of unemployed is growing
• Number of employed is diminishing
• Total work force is shrinking
  
  Hint
• Heavily reliant upon manufacturing along with tourism and farming
  
  You are correct if you said Michigan

The next one has a current unemployment rate of 6.1%

• Unemployment rate is growing and getting uncomfortably high
• The number of unemployed is growing rapidly
• The number of employed is relatively steady
• Total work force is growing at an annual rate of over 3%... lots of people moving in
  
  Hint
• Heavily reliant on agriculture and technology along with tourism and entertainment
  
  You are correct if you said California

The next one up has a current unemployment rate of 4.7%

• Unemployment rate is growing quickly, but not too high yet
• The number of unemployed is growing very fast
• The number of employed is steady to slightly declining
• Total work force is growing moderately
  
  Hint
• Heavily reliant on tourism and new retirees
  
  You are correct if you said Florida

The one at the top of the list has a current unemployment rate of 3.5%... well below the national average

• Unemployment rate is up for the last month measured, but less than half of the state with the highest rate
  
• The number of unemployed is low and up only slightly in the latest month
• The number of employed is growing
• Total work force is growing
  
  Hint
• Heavily reliant on the Federal Government and suppliers, lobbyists, and universities/think tanks working with the Federal Government
  
  You are correct if you said Virginia

What it tells me is that the only growth industry in the U.S. appears to be the Federal Government... and that is probably why the government in D.C. seems so out of touch with the rest of the U.S.

You can decide what this tells you.

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Hang On For The Ride

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

Yesterday, I said this:

I suspect that in a short time, the stock markets are going to realize that the latest rate cut is a good thing... even if it isn't a cure and is a little late... for the economy, and will react accordingly.

One day isn't exactly the "short time" I had in mind.

I suspect that there will be some "roller coaster" patterns for awhile. So, hang on.

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It's The Stupid Economy

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

We don't hear much about Iraq anymore. Sure, there is the occasional story about some nut who blows himself up and takes a bunch of school kids with him in the name of Allah. But our 8-week attention span has now shifted to the R-word.

After the Asian markets dropped like a rock, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, took quick action [after dragging an anchor for 6 months] and lower the funds rate to 3.5%. The result: U.S. stocks dropped like a rock and the world forgot about Iraq or Palestine or some guy living in a cave making home videos.

Early this month before the stuff hit the fan, I asked if history would repeat itself and the economy become the center of the political campaign for a certain senator from New York. Well, duh!

Oh, the market today? Well, it's almost 10:00 AM and

It is the stupid economy.

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Hard Getting Going

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

The picture above is real. It was taken awhile back when we had a 10" snowfall... the second large storm of the year.

Yesterday, I cleared the driveway twice as that beautiful white stuff whipped around. I don't really mind the snow or cold... although I used to hate to commute in the dirty slush that resulted. Now it is just another opportunity to enjoy the outdoors in a different way.

One gets used to the cold or the heat. We keep our home at 67° F during the cold months... and seal off unused bedrooms.

When we have guests, we reluctantly raise the temperature.

It's not about CO2 or saving polar bears... its about being sensible. As long as one is comfortable, it just seems best to keep the temperature differential between the indoors and outdoors to a minimum. It's less of a shock to one's system going between the two environments... and it does save money [not a bad thing either]. I seldom wear a down-filled coat; perhaps when it gets to 0° F I struggle into one. A few layers of clothing, warm hat, gloves, and shoes and I'm set to go.

Of course, a trip to Florida in the middle of winter gets me sweating when the natives are shivering... but I can get used to that, too.

I suspect that our adaptability is not unique among living things. Ducks still hang around our lake cottage when the lake is covered with ice. Those squirrels are active on every sunny, clear day. We are told that nature is the delicate system that will fall apart with the slightest change. My observations... and the fact that life has been adapting to change for hundreds of millions of years... tells me that there are too many people who worry too much.

While it may be hard to get going when the reality of a January day hits you in the face, go out and walk in the snow... it's good in so many ways.

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Rate Cuts - Are We There Yet?

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

Last summer, I wrote:

September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course.

The problem was, rather than biting the bullet, the Fed simply gummed it a little. Better late than never? Maybe. We'll have to see.

For many of those who had Adjustable Rate Mortgages that rose quickly through 2005-06, the rates cuts and, eventually reduction in ARM rates may be too late. For those who had plunged deeply into Home Equity loans, they may see some welcome relief.

Will it fix housing and economic problems? At this point, unlikely. It will, however, stabilize the situation and avoid worsening.

As I see it, the recession is already here. It will take a few months for the data to reflect that, but there is enough anecdotal information to understand that is the case.

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.

Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

I suspect that in a short time, the stock markets are going to realize that the latest rate cut is a good thing... even if it isn't a cure and is a little late... for the economy, and will react accordingly.

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Bear Market

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE and ECONOMY

More about bears....

On August 17, 2007, I wrote:

As I said on August 13 and today, the Fed is getting nervous, but it is not quite ready to lower interest rates that affect housing or other consumer purchases. Right now it is hoping a bandaid will fix things... it won't.

The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%.

September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result. [see the history in the right column]

So, we will all sit back and watch several years of investment earnings go down the drain in a whirlpool of frenzy by the Federal Reserve and worldwide markets... as they become very bearish.

Markey and Oil

SEARCH BLOG: MARKEY and POLAR BEARS

Yahoo News had an interesting post about how a certain Massachusetts Democrat prefers you to do without fuel and heat rather than risk the demise of polar bears whose numbers have "dwindled" from 8-10,000 to 22-25,000 [that's not a typo].

An endangered polar bear trapped on the ice
with nothing to eat.

[source]

Apparently, some Democrats are so intent on countering Bush's so-called war for oil, that they will do anything to deny the U.S. the opportunity to use its own natural resources. That way they can also prove there is an oil crisis.

By the way, how much of the Iraqi oil has the U.S. confiscated [you, know... stolen] since 1990? Anything more than nothing is the wrong answer. But some people are convinced that it's all about oil... and they make it their business to make that their business.

Pity the poor polar bears. Sure.

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Site Changes

I've been making some changes to the site layout that, hopefully, you will find to be improvements. Among the changes are:

• right and left side margins to constrain the page width somewhat
• picture title
• "widgets" on the right column... extracts from websites that may be of interest to you

If you have a personalized Google home page, you can add a feed from this site, by clicking on the image near the top of the right column that says, "Get My Widget." The same feed can be added to other blogs or sites.

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Another Voice About Government Health Care and the Veterans Administration

SEARCH BLOG: VETERANS ADMINISTRATION

Last year, I wrote several times about government health care and the Veterans Administration hospitals. I received several comments that my experiences were not typical and the VA had a model system and was recognized as such.

Well, maybe. But here is another voice... a doctor, who shares my frustration.

I still believe the VA does a lot of good for a lot of veterans. I also still believe the system could be improved significantly. If the VA system is the model of superior government health care, we all might want to think very long and hard about wanting to create a general government health care system for this country.

Good computer systems do not automatically translate into a good health care system... regardless of what a Rand study might indicate.

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5° In Jeopardy

SEARCH BLOG: GREEN BAY

It wasn't supposed to be this cold in Green Bay this morning. Yesterday, the forecast for today at 9:00 AM was -4° F.

The actual 9 AM temperature is:

We'll keep you posted... but it looks as if the football players might have to wear long-sleeved shirts and gloves.

Say isn't -13° the same temperature for the 1967 game?

Forecasting weather for the next day ... or month... is much harder than forecasting what politicians will do... or how the Fed is screwing up.

UPDATE

The temperature did break 0° F today in Green Bay .... all the way up to 1°. Now it is game time and it is -1°. Downright balmy compared with 1967's Ice Bowl.

I've been repeating the mantra "global warming" and so that 3-mile walk I took this afternoon when it was 11° here with 20 mph winds didn't both me at all. I even unzipped my jacket and broke out in a little sweat.

Gosh I miss those real winters before CO2 ruined everything.

They're tough in Green Bay, too. [a little photo from my TV]

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Forecasting Heat

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

The following maps are U.S. temperature forecasts versus normal. The first three maps are for the next 15 days in 5-day increments [which takes us just into the start of February]. Notice the portion of the maps that show below normal. The last map is for the 30 day period beginning January 20. Notice which portion of the map shows above normal for the 30-day average.

Days 1-5

Days 6-10


Days 11-15


30 Days

So just how does that area from Illinois through Pennsylvania go from below average for 15 days to above average for the full 30-days?

Heat wave! You saw it here first! AccuWeather has got to be predicting a heat wave for the first half of February! Well, at least warm enough to offset some bitterly cold weather that's settled in for this first week.

Put the snow skis away and get out the water skis. Get the boats out of storage. Unless you are on the west coast. Sorry about that. Keep the oranges covered out there.

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NFL Records Demonstrate Global Warming

SEARCH BLOG: NFL and GLOBAL WARMING

An article at ICECAP about the weather at Green Bay, Wisconsin for the 1967 championship game provides yet another record of the warming trend the planet has endured for the past 40 years.

"The 1967 game, played on December 31 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, remains the coldest NFL game on record. The official game-time temperature was -13F / -25C, with a wind chill around -48F / -44C. The bitter cold overwhelmed Lambeau’s new turf heating system, leaving the playing surface hard as a rock and nearly as smooth as ice. The officials were unable to use their whistles after the opening kickoff. As the referee blew his metal whistle to signal the start of play, it froze to his lips. For the rest of the game, the officials used voice commands and calls to end plays and officiate the game."

When we examine current weather conditions we can see a definite warming... at least 0.6° C:

And the forecast for tomorrow's game at Lambeau Field is even warmer:

To put it in perspective, the long-term trend has been markedly upward for 40 years!

Naturally, I plan to watch the game on my recliner in front of the fireplace... but only because I couldn't get a ticket.

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Predicting Is Easy

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

... because politicians are so predictable.

On January 9, I wrote:

How long until the next Clinton drops the candidate of change spiel and does what the first Clinton candidate did... focus on the specific fear creeping into the minds of the voters?

It very well may be the stupid economy.

The answer, of course, is not very long.

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Federal Reserve Tries To Fix Problem It Caused

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

Last November 14, I wrote:

"The Fed doesn't cause inflation or deflation, but the Fed certainly mucks up the economy from time to time; e.g., lowering Fed rates to 1% which got everyone on the borrowing bandwagon and many into ARMs that were unrealistic... and then rapidly increasing Fed rates to 5.0%+ which, on a relative basis, put the costs of borrowing much higher than people could afford given their commitments at lower rates... all in the name of protecting the nation against inflation when it simply made a mess out of the financial and housing markets."

On January 7, I wrote:

I've summarized what's going on regarding the Fed on my blog, but it boils do to two things: they enabled the housing bubble by making interest rates way too low and then they trapped too many people in financially untenable situations because they raised rates over 4 pp. At the end of last summer I posited that the Fed needed to take rates down immediately to 4%. They took them down gradually to 4.25%, but that simply allowed the situation to fester and make the decrease of interest rates far less effective. At this point, the Fed can do little right. Lower rates below 4% and the dollar crashes; don't lower rates and recession is probably assured. Pick your poison. 4% was the right target; the Fed process was simply inept.

A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:

The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.

	Anna Schwartz wrote a seminal text on the causes of the Great Depression

"They need to speak frankly to the market and acknowledge how bad the problems are, and acknowledge their own failures in letting this happen. This is what is needed to restore confidence," she told The Sunday Telegraph. "There never would have been a sub-prime mortgage crisis if the Fed had been alert. This is something Alan Greenspan must answer for," she says.

...

According to Schwartz the original sin of the Bernanke-Greenspan Fed was to hold rates at 1 per cent from 2003 to June 2004, long after the dotcom bubble was over. "It is clear that monetary policy was too accommodative. Rates of 1 per cent were bound to encourage all kinds of risky behaviour," says Schwartz.

She is scornful of Greenspan's campaign to clear his name by blaming the bubble on an Asian saving glut, which purportedly created stimulus beyond the control of the Fed by driving down global bond rates. "This attempt to exculpate himself is not convincing. The Fed failed to confront something that was evident. It can't be blamed on global events," she says.

...

"Liquidity doesn't do anything in this situation. It cannot deal with the underlying fear that lots of firms are going bankrupt," she says. Her view is fast spreading. Goldman Sachs issued a full-recession alert on Wednesday, predicting rates of 2.5 per cent by the third quarter. "Ben Bernanke should be making stronger statements and then backing them up with decisive easing," says Jan Hatzius, the bank's US economist.

Bernanke did indeed switch tack on Thursday. "We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed," he says, warning of a "fragile situation". It follows a surge in December unemployment from 4.7 per cent to 5 per cent, the sharpest spike in a quarter century. Inflation fears are subsiding fast.

[HT - Greg Mankiw's Blog]

For more, read the summary comments about the Federal Reserve in the column to the right or do a SEARCH BLOG on "Federal Reserve".

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House Of Cards - Second Verse

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

I've been having an ongoing email conversation with Bill who has pretty strong opinions about many of the issues which I post here.

Although I am a harsh critic about outsourcing, I believe it is partially a result of bad trade treaties and currency manipulation by major trading nations that literally force U.S. corporations into the practice of outsourcing. Bill is not quite as forgiving.

With regard to the Federal Reserve, I have been fairly unforgiving myself as shown in the summary of quotes in the column to the right.

And with regard to Wall Street and Big Banking, I wrote this a few days back:

"A few years ago, we saw cracks in the financial world with hedge fund scandals. Now we are seeing further cracks with the sub-prime scandal. It seems that the mundane world of banking and investing has gotten caught up in the "get rich quick," high-risk mindset that accepts manipulation of markets as preferred paths to wealth. While there may be big reward with big risk, there is the big downside as well."

All in all though, Bill and I have a pretty close alignment. So I wasn't too surprised when I got this link in an email from him.

I have to say that it was worth my while checking it out... and I believe it will be worth your time as well.

I guess there are others out there with whom I agree. But as I wrote back to Bill:

I'm not sure I picked up the specifics of his solution.

That's always the rub....

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Ice LOSS? Think Again

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

This headline appeared in The Detroit News:

Ice loss spreads faster

Researchers tie climate changes to accelerated melt at Antarctica, raise fears of quicker sea-level rise.

Marc Kaufman / Washington Post

WASHINGTON -- Climatic changes appear to be destabilizing vast ice sheets of western Antarctica that had previously seemed relatively protected from global warming, researchers reported Sunday, raising the prospect of faster sea-level rise than current estimates.

While the overall loss is a tiny fraction of the miles-deep ice that covers much of Antarctica, scientists said the new finding is important because the continent holds about 90 percent of Earth's ice, and until now, large-scale ice loss there had been limited to the peninsula that juts out toward the tip of South America. In addition, researchers found that the rate of ice loss in the affected areas has accelerated over the past 10 years -- as it has on most glaciers and ice sheets around the world.

Oh, wait, there's the obligatory picture of a small chuck of ice with "stranded" animals... this time penguins!!! Gee, I hope they don't drown.

Previously protected ice sheets in western Antarctica are destabilizing, researchers have found, possibly because of global warming. (Frederique Olivier / Getty Images)

I sent the following comment to the newspaper:

The problem with the subject line article [1/14] is that it is factually incorrect.

For the real story about how Antarctic snow and ice cover have dramatically INCREASED in 2007, go to:
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/latest_antarctic_sea_ice_extent2/

The FACT is that the southern hemisphere ice coverage is greater now than any time in the past 28 years:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg

The article printed in The Detroit News is a prime example of outright lying by those who have uncritically accepted anthropogenic global warming (AWG) and attribute every real or fanciful weather change or event as proof... or simply try to make up their own "truths." [HT Joseph D'Aleo at ICECAP]

It is true that the very small peninsula referenced in the article has had some ice loss. The outright lie is the assertion: "has accelerated over the past 10 years -- as it has on most glaciers and ice sheets around the world." ... unless you don't want to count the ice covering Antarctica as glaciers.

Years ago they called that "yellow journalism." It really doesn't enhance the reputation of the Washington Post or The Detroit News.

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This Clinton Not Black Enough

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

The first Clinton president considered himself the "first black president." Now it appears that the second Clinton seeking the office of President of the United States is considered "racially insensitive"... at least according to half-black, half-white Barack Obama's campaign:

Both New York Sen. Clinton and her husband, the former president, have engaged in damage control this week after black leaders criticized their comments shortly before the New Hampshire primary last Tuesday.

The senator was quoted as saying King's dream of racial equality was realized only when President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, while Bill Clinton said Illinois Sen. Obama was telling a "fairy tale" about his opposition to the Iraq war.

Former President Clinton has since appeared on several black radio programs to say he was referring to Obama's record on the Iraq war, not on his effort to become the nation's first black president.

At an awards dinner Sunday in Atlanta celebrating black achievement, Michelle Obama said her husband is the person America needs in the White House right now and was critical of anyone who would "dismiss this moment as an illusion, a fairy tale." He is the right candidate "not because of the color of his skin, but because of the quality and consistency of his character," she said.

As evidence the Obama campaign had pushed the story, Clinton advisers pointed to a memo written by an Obama staffer compiling examples of comments by Clinton and her surrogates that could be construed as racially insensitive. The memo later surfaced on a handful of political Web sites.

Obama later called Clinton's accusations "ludicrous," and said he found Clinton's comments about King to be ill-advised and unfortunate.

[source: Yahoo]

We won't go into pots and kettles here, but this has to be the biggest effort of pandering in the 2008 campaign so far.

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House Of Cards

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

Trying to figure out the economy? The most obvious changes have been in two sectors: industrial and financial.

In the industrial sector, the U.S. continues to dominate, but is not nearly as vertically integrated as decades ago when basic parts... that became basic components... that became basic assemblies... that became finished products were produced in the U.S. The industrial network was based in the U.S. and the jobs pyramid was based in the U.S.

Now, the lower layers of the pyramid have become porous and weak. Towns and cities and states that used to hum along with the machinery of our industries have become shells of their former selves. More and more, we are employed "servicing" each other... selling at Walmart instead of creating tools or parts or new products.

Much of this change has been associated with productivity gains rather than outsourcing to other countries. I suspect the argument for productivity is somewhat overstated, just as the blame placed on outsourcing is overstated. Regardless, the shift to service sector jobs results in wages that are, on average, 8% less than manufacturing job wages.

The average for services, $11.79, was about the same as the overall average and was 92 percent of the average for manufacturing. [source]

If you take 8% more per year from a large sector of employment and add that to the economy, you do get a significant bump.

But the process of moving from manufacturing to service jobs has been going on for awhile, so the economy has adjusted to that. So have individuals who have lost their manufacturing jobs. Less money coming in means less going out or saved... on average.

Of course, if you have adjusted to an economy based on many at the lower levels earning less, then there may be less opportunity for further adjustment when the economy is impacted by sudden problems... especially when those problems are caused at the top.

A few years ago, we saw cracks in the financial world with hedge fund scandals. Now we are seeing further cracks with the sub-prime scandal. It seems that the mundane world of banking and investing has gotten caught up in the "get rich quick," high-risk mindset that accepts manipulation of markets as preferred paths to wealth. While there may be big reward with big risk, there is the big downside as well.

“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.” [N.Y. Times]

Is there a connection between lower paying service jobs, finance manipulation schemes, and the looming economic problems facing the U.S.?

Here are a couple of dots . . -- connect them.

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It's All About Global Warming

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Yesterday, I posted a couple of tongue-in-cheek items about global warming causing snow to fall in Baghdad and how Asia was getting some needed relief from global warming in the form of bitterly cold weather.

This is the sort of "journalism" that we read constantly... only the authors who point to every weather anomaly sincerely believe they are making the case for runaway global warming.

I could have easily added more absurd items about global warming causing the mountains of California to be covered in dangerous levels of snow or how snow was falling in South America now during their summer. But you get the point.

Everything proves that global warming is happening... whether our logic steadfastly refuses to make the connection or not.

The problem is that weather records cover only slightly more than a century and the conditions and equipment used to record temperatures are constantly changing... perhaps not for the better.

The point of all of this is that from the perspective of the human condition, if there has been global warming, the extent has been so negligible that Baghdad can have its first snow in 100 years, South American can have snow in the summer, California mountains can be buried in snow, and central Asia can have weather so bitter that people are freezing to death in their cars.

The globe obviously has not warmed enough!

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Record Cold Provides Welcome Relief

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Central, South Asia gripped by bitter cold

KABUL, Afghanistan, Jan. 9 (UPI) -- Bitter cold and heavy snow have gripped vast areas from Iran through Central Asia to Pakistan, killing dozens of people and leaving thousands shivering.

Eight people froze to death in Iran after being trapped in their cars, while tens of thousands of other motorists had to be rescued from their vehicles, the BBC reported. Many living in desert areas of Iran experienced snowfall for the first time in their lives.

Frigid temperatures were also reported in Central Asian nations.

In Kyrgyzstan, the government blamed the weather for the deaths of at least 50 homeless people since the start of the year.

In some areas of Tajikistan, temperatures plummeted to 14 degrees Fahrenheit. Electricity has already been cut to about four hours day as the country faces reduced energy exports from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the report said.

In Afghanistan, five people died in an avalanche in the western province of Ghor, while eight members of a family were killed in neighboring Herat when a roof collapsed under the weight of heavy snow.

Heavy snow also has disrupted life in northwestern Pakistan, where seven soldiers died in an avalanche, the report said.

Copyright 2008 by United Press International. All Rights Reserved.

Where's global warming when you need it?

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Global Warming Causes First Baghdad Snow In 100 Years

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Snow fell on Baghdad on Friday for the first time in memory, and delighted residents declared it an omen of peace.

"It is the first time we've seen snow in Baghdad," said 60-year-old Hassan Zahar. "We've seen sleet before, but never snow. I looked at the faces of all the people, they were astonished," he said.

"A few minutes ago, I was covered with snowflakes. In my hair, on my shoulders. I invite all the people to enjoy peace, because the snow means peace," he said.

[source]

... or maybe not.

Federal Reserve To Lower Rates Again

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

It's all over the news, so I won't bother citing sources. Ben Bernanke pretty much assured everyone that the Federal Reserve will be lowering their rates from 4.25% to at least 4% and maybe 3.75%

This is death by a thousand cuts. I covered all of this a few days ago... it's enough, but too late.

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Double Standard

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

You've heard it over and over and over.... Women are picked on. Women have to do twice as much as a man to get the same recognition. It's an old boys club that women can't join.

Women are just as capable and tough; ask any navy seal or army ranger. Okay, so maybe that's not fair. Men certainly don't have to go through the pain of childbirth.

But when it comes to picking a president, one has to ask this question: if Mitt Romney or John McCain or Fred Thompson started to cry in front of the camera and said how tough it was to be campaigning ... after only three states... would the general reaction been the same as Anne Doyle's:

The Soul of a Leader
Tuesday, January 08, 2008 @ 11:36 AM

Since when is a brief glimpse into a leader’s soul enough to shake our confidence in his emotional suitability for the Oval Office? The honest answer is: never. A rare glimpse into the soul of a strong, seasoned male leader would only reinforce his humanity. He would go up a notch or two in our eyes for being “strong enough” to show a little emotion.

But change the gender of the leader and the rules change instantly. How is it that :45 seconds of Senator Clinton baring a bit of her soul, showing us the emotion and passion behind her presidential aspirations have become a defining moment of her historic campaign?

I read that with extreme incredulity. So I asked my wife the simple question: if any of the men on the campaign trail had cried about the difficulty of the task, would they have elicited such an outpouring of sympathy [and votes]. She just laughed... and laughed... and laughed.

And that male candidate would have been laughed off the campaign trail by the next day.

When it comes to being tough enough, durable enough, confident enough, strong enough to be President of the United States, one has to question the qualifications of a candidate that feels compelled to cry about how difficult it has been to campaign in the first three states [I'm giving credit for Wyoming].

But Hillary's a woman and she needs to be allowed to show her "softer side."

As Bill's wife... maybe; as President of the United States... no friggin' way.

There is a difference between being sympathetic or empathetic and being emotional and weak. Let's not get confused.

Read the comments....
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Will History Repeat?

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

The first Clinton candidate for president recognized an opportunity and went for it: he saw that people were worried about the economy and jobs and made it the central theme of his candidacy: it's the economy, stupid.

Fast forward to 2008 and the next Clinton is trying to gain traction in her party's nomination process. People are concerned about the economy and their jobs. The stock market is tanking. Home sales have already tanked. Production is down. Spending is down.

How long until the next Clinton drops the candidate of change spiel and does what the first Clinton candidate did... focus on the specific fear creeping into the minds of the voters?

It very well may be the stupid economy.

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January 2009 Administration

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Imagine that it is January, 2009 and the presidential elections are over.

Suppose all of the candidates that were involved in the New Hampshire debates had some place in the administration. What would be their positions?

Bear with me....

• President - Mitt Romney - it's good to have someone who has more than government experience in running things... because no one can actually run the government
  
• Vice President - Fred Thompson - he can take all the time he needs with this job, but he'll get things done behind the scenes... gravitas counts
  
• Secretary of State - Rudy Giuliani - he doesn't like the pussy footing so let's see how he handles the Middle East... besides, he may be connected
  
• Secretary of Defense - John McCain - really, now, who else?
• Secretary of Labor - John Edwards - true to his roots and he still doesn't have to give up his $400 haircuts
  
• Secretary of Agriculture - Hillary Clinton - who knows more about pork?
• Secretary of Education - Mike Huckabee - if the law says to educate, he will see it happens no matter how high the taxes have to be raised
  
• Secretary of Energy [aka Secretary of Dismantling Domestic Automobile Manufacturers] - Bill Richardson - he knows how to do it because he did it even if he couldn't make it happen
• Secretary of Homeland Security - Ron Paul - no foreign entanglements... or affairs... or landscapers... build the damn wall! and bring home the troops... shut the doors... lock the windows....
  
• Secretary of Health and Human Services - Barack Obama - he'll take care of all of us and we'll all feel good about it because he talks sooooooooo sooooooooothingly.
  

Did I leave anyone out?

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January Thaw

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

We're catching a break for a few days in Michigan. Today the temperature is supposed to reach about 60° F or almost 30° F above normal.

Global warming? Hardly.

Just a typical weather variation for the winter. Actually, it will be about 10° F below the local record for the month of January.

The problem is that next week, the high temperature is forecasted to be well below normal again... and the snow that is melting rapidly will, no doubt, be back.

That's the problem: when winters are warmer we burn less fuel for heating and create less CO2, but when they are colder we burn more fuel for heating and create more CO2. Of course, the CO2 part is a problem only if you really believe that AGW is what made the temperature in Michigan go up to 60° F. ...and you can ignore the fact that it has been colder than normal since the beginning of November ...and you can ignore the fact that there has been way above normal snowfall in many areas, including California which was supposed to have snow-free mountaintops this winter.

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U.S. Economy Next Move

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

In response to a question from Bill, I wrote:

I've summarized what's going on regarding the Fed on my blog, but it boils do to two things: they enabled the housing bubble by making interest rates way too low and then they trapped too many people in financially untenable situations because they raised rates over 4 pp. At the end of last summer I posited that the Fed needed to take rates down immediately to 4%. They took them down gradually to 4.25%, but that simply allowed the situation to fester and make the decrease of interest rates far less effective. At this point, the Fed can do little right. Lower rates below 4% and the dollar crashes; don't lower rates and recession is probably assured. Pick your poison. 4% was the right target; the Fed process was simply inept.

The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.

Of course, I'm looking at things from a very biased mid-western viewpoint. Perhaps things are rosy in the southeast.

Want a massive upswing in the economy? Cut corporate taxes by 75% and government spending by 5%. Okay, that won't happen.

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New Hampshire Debates

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

3 hours of platitudes with a dose of sage commentating.

Who won? Well, let's dismiss voters from that possibility, but we'll stick to the debaters.

Among the Republicans in order of best to worst showing:

• Romney - the most specific and on-target answers; stuck to the issues and not to personalities, but certainly positioned himself for abuse from the other debaters
  
• Giuliani - a lot of specific and on-target answers and some fancy dancing, especially around illegal immigration
• McCain - some good answers, but displayed his penchant for making things personal and petty
• Huckabee and Thompson - moved the air with their words, but mainly took up space; although Thompson provided some humor and showed his obvious very conservative philosophy
  
• Paul - appeared to be on a different planet

Among the Democrats:

• Obama - not so much about great points, but he was somewhat successful in moving the debate from specifics to the idea of inspirational leadership
• Edwards - stayed focused on driving home his position as defender of the underdog while avoiding the personal barbs between Obama and Clinton; has overcome his "Breck Girl" disaster, but is appealing mostly to those who want the government to take care of them and let someone else pay for it
  
• Clinton - focused too much on the negative and how much she drove change for 35 years while decrying that what we now needed most was change; her pedantic style is her undoing while her attempts at "being likable" are just sad
  
• Richardson - just waiting for the debate to be over so he can go out with Ron Paul for a few beers

Subject most avoided by Republicans: worsening economy and trade issues.

Subject most avoided by Democrats: how they have blocked nuclear power plants and oil/natural gas exploration... and now blame George Bush and oil companies for the high cost of oil and gas and lack of alternative energy.

Did the debates settle anything for voters? We'll see.

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Microsoft Office 2007 and Vista

SEARCH BLOG: MICROSOFT

I wrote earlier that I am selling my small business.

Officially, I retired a few years ago, but have had this small side business for 25 years. It has let me tinker with computer systems and software and keep my mind somewhat agile.

Last year I purchased a Dell laptop with a nice, large screen, a lot of memory, and an Intel Duo Core processor.

It came with Vista Home Premium and some other pre-loaded software. I loaded Microsoft Office 2007, Adobe Acrobat 8, and some Macromedia software on it as well.

Other than an issue with a pre-loaded virus scan software that kept kicking me off the Internet, I have had a nearly flawless experience with this configuration.

As part of the process of selling the business, I prepared an "Operations Manual" for the new owner.

It was prepared in Microsoft Word using its built in features, including "Styles," and took advantage of a little feature called "Snipping Tool" which came with Vista. This let's a person take a full or partial screen image and save it for further use. In the old computer with the XP system, I had to purchase a piece of software to do the same thing.

The upshot is that I was able to prepare a 40+ page, professional-looking document that was well-organized and loaded with images to assist understanding, and it included an automatically-generated Table of Contents... in about two days.

Certainly, this could have been done in Office 2003... not as easily, but after using both and having used Microsoft products for almost 25 years, my opinion is that Vista and Office 2007 are both competent, if not superior, efforts from Microsoft... if loaded on the right equipment.

Vista seems to be an issue with many people, but it has been taking care of itself in the background for almost a year and I haven't had to waste my time with those damn Service Packs that kept needing my attention in XP. I run an automatic full backup weekly on to a 1 terabyte external drive using Vista and it is done invisibly... even if I'm working on the computer at the time.

Microsoft has done well. Just my opinion....

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Cold Not As Warm As Reported

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING and GIGO

I have written that if global warming was happening, and there was no real indication that new high temperature records were increasingly being set, then the calculated warming had to come from higher minimum temperatures being recorded. [here]

Since then, there has been a significant effort by Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit and Anthony Watts at surfacestations.org that reveal both improper manipulation of weather data that falsely creates upward trends in temperature... and improper maintenance and siting of many weather recording stations that cause artificially high temperatures to be recorded.

Now, from Climate Science, we learn that there is more than just improper siting leading to recording of artificially high minimum temperatures:

“…Therefore, the use of minimum temperatures at 1.5 or 2 m for interpreting climate system heat change is not appropriate. This means that the 1.5 to 2m observations of minimum temperatures that are used as part of the analysis to assess climate system heat changes (e.g., such as used to construct Figure SPM-3 in IPCC [2007] and in Parker [2004, 2006] study) lead to a greater long term temperature trend than would be found if higher heights within the surface boundary layer were used….”

This means that a significant warm bias exists in the 2007 IPCC Report on the trends of the global average radiative forcing, since they base their estimate on a surface air temperature trend that includes minimum temperatures over land. This bias, which occurs whenever the nighttime surface boundary layer is stably stratified over land and the winds are light is, therefore, very significant at high latitudes in the winter, where much of the warming is reported to have occurred. This error in the IPCC construction does not mean that no warming has occurred, but it does mean that they have significantly overstated global warming in their report.

So, maybe some warming has occurred, but not so much, and it has been in higher lower temperatures, in winter, at high latitudes.

So tell me again why we should be so panicked? I really haven't seen much in the way of higher minimum temperatures in Michigan, but maybe 45° N isn't a high enough latitude... or maybe it's just that the change has been too negligible to have any real impact on anything.

Go to the Climate Science link above and check it out.

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The Balls Are Too Cold For Golfing

SEARCH BLOG: RETIREMENT

The sweatbands are off this morning.

Time to head out for a belated luncheon of fellow retirees. Most of us get together once or twice a week for golf, but today it is for mostaccioli or some such at Mama Mia's.

Besides, I can't find my bright red golf balls with the beepers and internal heat sources, so playing golf in the snow is out.

Accuweather says it will be 50° warmer by Monday so maybe I can swing at a few then.

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Avoid Global Warming - Come To Michigan

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

For those of you who are absolutely certain that we face a horrible future of runaway heat, drought, and disease... here is a safe haven for you.

Michigan has:

• a cool climate
• plenty of water
• good, inexpensive housing
• great universities
• central location and simple access to Canada [which also has plenty of water and often cooler temperatures]
  
• more golf courses than most of the U.S. states
• great pro basketball, hockey, and baseball teams [and it also has a pro football team that we don't talk much about] plus some pretty decent college football teams
• fine medical facilities [in case some of those global-warmed, disease-ridden, out-of-staters should come in]

But, until you do decide to relocate, here are some pictures to help you keep cool.

Pretty soon it will get cool enough so that we can take our sweatbands off.

I'm sure glad that we've missed that global warming here.

There are Jennifer's taxes, however....

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New Directions

SEARCH BLOG: CHANGE

(2:00 am the following morning... just before going to bed) I'm recovering from clearing out 10" of wet snow from our driveway and front walk. I worked up quite a sweat, but for a guy in his 60s, I handled it pretty well. Hard work has never been a problem or a threat to me. Besides, judicious use of Advil prevents regrets later.

My neighbor was kind enough to help with a portion of it, but the job still took about 2 hours with my 20+ year old snow blower. Now everything is turning rock hard as the temperature heads toward 20° F tonight and then 10° by tomorrow night. It appears that the missing Arctic ice has been found in Michigan.

The street out front still hasn't been cleared as most city crews were off for the holiday and even major roads were left untouched by plows. For most people, this was a good day for a storm because they had time to clear the snow and not worry about going to work.

I suspect that I will find a large mound of street snow and ice at the end of my driveway sometime tomorrow once the city plows make it this far.

I wrote sometime back that I might shut down my small business because the state could not get it's act together regarding the service tax that was signed into law [and then repealed just as it was to go into effect]. Given that prospect looming along with a Michigan economy that was getting as cold as the outdoors, I decided this was a good time to cash in my chips and retire. I was fortunate to find a buyer for the business and will spend awhile helping with the transition. Then, it will be time to focus on retirement.

I started working when I was 12. My father had a small carpet and furniture cleaning business, so I helped out after school and on weekends. Lifting all of those wet rugs and heavy furniture for the next 9 years built me up physically and convinced me that I would be the first in my family to graduate from college. The experience and the decision have both served me well.

But it's been more than 50 years since I began that first job and I don't feel at all guilty about changing my lifestyle and spending some time not working.

Perhaps I'm mistaken, but I don't think many 12-year olds have the opportunity to experience that level of hard work these days unless they live on a farm or a ranch. Sure, paper routes are okay, but even those seem to be taken over by adults in many areas.

Kids are "protected" from hard physical work. Instead, they participate in sports (I wrestled) or in some school activity or just "hang."

Hard physical work isn't necessarily going to motivate a child to go to college or start their own business or learn a skill or craft.

But I sense that there are far too many children who really have no sense of what work is and what alternative forms it might take. Consequently, there are far too many who are not ready for the working world when their time comes.

And from what I can see, there are far fewer opportunities for children to experience real work and understand the impact of their decisions to leave school or "hang" instead of expending effort to improve themselves.

All I know is that my early exposure to hard work did not hurt me physically, emotionally, mentally or professionally... but a failure to experience hard work might have held me back.

Maybe I'll get restless and have to get involved in something again. But for now, I'm looking forward to this change.

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Happy New Year

SEARCH BLOG: NEW YEAR

Upon waking this morning....

This is a color picture.

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