READ ABOUT DETROIT AND SOLUTIONS TO ITS PROBLEMS. CLICK HERE.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Changes From 2004 To 2008

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE

Back in 2004, the economy was booming, the Democrats were saying the war in Iraq was lost, and the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] was predicting rapidly rising sea levels and Minnesota having a climate like Tennessee.

Amazing what 4 years can do. Watch this and be amused at how scientists were able to project massive climate changes based on a few years of El Nino affected temperature increases.



I'm sure Minnesota is somewhat disappointed that the predictions were nonsense.

Looking at yesterday's weather at International Falls, Minnesota, the National Weather Service reported this:

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009


...................................

...THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 13 2009...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1939 TO 2009


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM -11 348 PM 41 1987 13 -24 19
MINIMUM -42R 642 AM -36 1979 -9 -33 7
AVERAGE -26 2 -28 13
That appears to be a new daily record cold for that location... 6° colder than the previous record of 30 years ago. [Note: this is not a statewide record for the month of January. That occurred in 1996 at Montevideo with a temperature of -57°F]
I'm also sure the people in Tennesse would be disappointed to have the Minnesota climate.
You can hear the folks up in International Falls saying "Bring on dat der Global Warmin', eh?"

ADDENDUM
Statewide monthly records are being updated.


..

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

The Climate Debate Is [Not] Over

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Asian countries seem to have a slightly different perspective about the climate and related issues.

  • Russian scientists believe a new ice age is coming. So I guess it makes sense to be stingy with the oil and natural gas.
  • The Chinese don't mind CO2 limits as long as they apply to Europe and North America
  • And now the Japanese are backing out of their support of the IPCC proclamation regarding man-made global warming.
From Marc Morano. Excuse the formatting, but text from emails and naked links are a bit ugly.

Japan’s top scientists are publicly dissenting!

Actual Debate! Top Japanese Scientists Dissent on Warming – Reject IPCC View - Call Climate Change 'Natural'

[Note: Both Physicist Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the former director of both University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center who has twice been named in "1000 Most Cited Scientists” and UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh are featured in the U.S. Senate report. Itoh has said: Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.”

See:
U. S. Senate Minority Report: More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims – Award-winning Geologist Shigenori Maruyama, professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, has not yet been included in the U.S. Senate report, but is yet another prominent Japanese scientist dissenting from warming fears. Shigenori Maruyama can be reached at: smaruyam@geo.titech.ac.jp Maruyama has authored more than 125 scientific publications. bio page: http://www.geo.titech.ac.jp/lab/komiya/maruyamalab/maruyamalab.e.html - Prof. Maruyama was decorated with the Medal of Honor with Purple Ribbon for a major contribution in the field of geology. ]

Energy think tank publishes new report on causes of global warming – January 12, 2008

Excerpt: Who is the real culprit behind global warming? The Japan Society of Energy and Resources (JSER) pits differing views from five researchers -- some who attribute the greenhouse effect to CO2 emitted by human activity and others who express skepticism towards the claim -- against each other in the latest issue of its journal.

The study titled, "Global warming: What is the scientific truth?" contained work by Seita Emori, head of the National Institute for Environmental Studies who participated in the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as Shunichi Akasofu, professor emeritus at the University of Alaska, Kiminori Ito, professor at Yokohama National University, and Shigenori Maruyama, professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology, three researchers skeptical of the man-made climate theory, and Kanya Kusano, program director at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) who takes a neutral stance towards the issue. All five researchers agreed either completely or partially with the claim by the IPCC that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level."

However, all but Emori disagreed with the IPCC assertion that "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations" -- in other words, that global warming is the result of human activity. "CO2 emissions have been increasing, but the rise in air temperature stopped around 2001. Climate change is due in large part to naturally occurring oscillations," argues Akasofu. Ito pointed out problems in the figures themselves.

"Data taken by the U.S. is inadequate. We only have satellite data of global temperatures from 1979 onwards." While symposiums on the topic have been held on numerous occasions, the journal's editorial committee cites the "limitations of the spoken word" as a motivation for publishing the feature. The feature includes the data on which the five researchers base their arguments, and is posted for public viewing on the Internet.


Note: Direct Link to translated presentation of skeptical UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh:
Below are the two full entries of both UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh and Physicist Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu in the U. S. Senate Minority Report: More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims:

Physicist Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, the former director of both University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center who has twice been named in "1000 Most Cited Scientists," released a scientific study of the Arctic on March 2007
that concluded the recent warming was likely "natural" and not manmade. (LINK)

Akasofu, an award winning scientist who has published more than 550 professional journal articles and authored or co-authored 10 books, also recently blasted the UN IPCC process. "I think the initial motivation by the IPCC (established in 1988) was good; it was an attempt to promote this particular scientific field," Akasofu said in an April 1, 2007 interview. "But so many [scientists] jumped in, and the media is looking for a disaster story, and the whole thing got out of control," Akasofu added.

The article continued: "Akasofu said there is no data showing that ‘most' of the present warming is due to the man-made greenhouse effect, as the members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wrote in February. "If you look back far enough, we have a bunch of data that show that warming has gone on from the 1600s with an almost linear increase to the present," Akasofu said. The article concluded: "Akasofu said scientists who support the man-made greenhouse gas theory disregard information from centuries ago when exploring the issue of global warming. Satellite images of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have been available in the satellite era only since the 1960s and 1970s. ‘Young researchers are interested in satellite data, which became available after 1975,' he said. ‘All the papers since (the advent of satellites) show warming. That's what I call 'instant climatology.' I'm trying to tell young scientists, 'You can't study climatology unless you look at a much longer time period.'" (LINK)

UN IPCC award-winning environmental physical chemist Dr. Kiminori Itoh of Yokohama National University, a contributor to the 2007 UN IPCC AR4 (fourth assessment report) as an expert reviewer, publicly rejected man-made climate fears in 2008, calling the promotion of such fears “the worst scientific scandal in the history.” Itoh, who specializes in optical waveguide spectroscopy, is a former lecturer at the University of Tokyo and the author of the just released his new book Lies and Traps in the Global Warming Affairs (currently in Japanese only).

“We have described many topics in this book, including inaccurate temperature measurements (e.g., A. Watt’s work), ‘observations’ of climate sensitivity, many climate forcings such as colored-aerosol and vegetation (based on 2005 NRC report as Roger has so many times pointed out), and the effect of solar magnetic activity (including my own work),” Itoh wrote on June 17, 2008, on the weblog of former Colorado State Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr. Itoh’s new book includes chapters calling man-made global warming fears “the worst scientific scandal in the history.” “I also cited the opinions of Dr. Akasofu (Professor Emeritus, University of Alaska) in the last part of the book. He sincerely advises us‚ ‘When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists,’ and says, ‘IPCC should make appropriate comments before G8.’ I sincerely think he is correct,” Itoh wrote. Itoh concludes his book with six points:
“1. The global temperature will not increase rapidly if at all. There is sufficient time to think about future energy and social systems.
2.The climate system is more robust than conventionally claimed. For instance, the Gulf Stream will not stop due to fresh water inflow.
3. There are many factors that cause the climate changes, particularly in regional and local scales. Considering only greenhouse gases is nonsense and harmful.
4. A comprehensive climate convention is necessary. The framework-protocol formulism is too old to apply to modern international issues.
5. Reconsider countermeasures for the climate changes. For instance, to reduce Asian Brown Cloud through financial and technical aid of developed countries is beneficial from many aspects, and can become a Win-Win policy.
6. The policy makers should be ‘Four-ball jugglers.’ Multiple viewpoints are inevitable to realize sustainable societies.” (LINK)

Also included in U.S. Senate 650 Scientist Report:
Japanese Scientist Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu University in Japan and former vice deputy president at the Shibaura Institute of Technology, dissented in 2008.

“Global warming has nothing to do with how much CO2 is produced or what we do here on Earth. For millions of years, solar activity has been controlling temperatures on Earth and even now, the sun controls how high the mercury goes. CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another. Soon it will cool down anyhow, once again, regardless of what we do. Every scientist knows this, but it doesn’t pay to say so. What makes a whole lot of economic and political sense is to blame global warming on humans and create laws that keep the status quo and prevent up-and-coming nations from developing. Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps Europeans in the driver’s seat and developing nations walking barefoot,” Takeda said, according to a July 22, 2008 article. (LINK)
Marc_Morano@epw.senate.gov

..

Monday, January 12, 2009

Gasoline And Oil Prices Do Not Mix

SEARCH BLOG: GASOLINE

Oil prices have returned to the level that resulted in gasoline prices around $1.60 per gallon a few weeks ago.

Gasoline prices have stayed where they were when oil prices were $10 per barrel [25%] higher.

Who is rigging the market?

ADDENDUM:

Michigan gas prices leap 20 cents
Average cost at pump of $1.84 topped by only three states; reasons for weekend surge unclear. Doug Guthrie / The Detroit News

Less predictable than the weather, the price of gasoline spiked statewide over the weekend to make motorists in Michigan pay more at the pump than any other state except California, Alaska and Hawaii.

Local prices on Sunday ranged from $1.62 a gallon for regular at Costco and Sam's Club in Madison Heights to a high of $2 per gallon at a BP station in Romulus, according to Detroitgasprices.com.

The statewide average of $1.84 per gallon is only topped by the average of $1.86 in California, $2.28 in Hawaii, and $2.36 in Alaska.

Meanwhile, average prices in several western states like Texas, Utah, Montana and Colorado remain below $1.50 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.com.

Even AAA of Michigan spokesman Jim Rink was at a loss to explain Michigan's weekend price surge.

"There really is nothing I know of that should have caused a 20-cent jump overnight," Rink said Sunday.


..

And To The Democracy For Which It Does Not Stand

SEARCH BLOG: GOVERNMENT

A week ago, I wrote a post called "Vulcan Philosophy" that compared the fictitious Star Trek race's "logical" approach to life with our Bill of Rights.

I said: "Thank goodness we are still a democracy [well, technically a republic, but let's not dwell on incidentals]."

Now take a look at this to see how these "incidentals" can affect us.



ht/Kathy and wimp.com
Think about this the next time you hear a politician talk about our "democracy." After all, the Vulcans did have their "High Council."


..

Polar Express

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

If you plan to travel "up north" this week, you might want to reconsider.

I suspect the weather map in the right column will be showing mostly "blue states" this week.

..

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Michigan Snow And Cold

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

We just had the second 8" snowfall of the season. Fortunately the first one melted away after a couple of weeks. This may take longer now that it is January.

This can of Canada Dry sparkling water was left on the porch and the cold weather blew the lid right off with the expanding liquid. Take a soda can, add the diameter of the lid, and an inch or so to spare. That's the amount of snow that fell. The deck is pretty well protected from wind-drift.


Even with the nice aerodynamic shape of the roof, snow found a way to settle comfortably.


1-1/2 hours later....

Later, I warmed up walking around Costco with my wife.

..

Death To Israel Chicago Style

SEARCH BLOG: ISRAEL

Brave Palestinian sympathizers attacked the infidels last night.

Vandals Deface 3 Chicago Synagogues-- "Death to Israel" Painted on Walls

Leftists or Islamists defaced 3 synagogues in Chicago Saturday night.

Two North Side synagogues and one in Lincolnwood were vandalized early Saturday. (Scott Stewart/Sun-Times)

The vandals were caught on tape spray-painting the buildings at 4 in the morning.
The Chicago Sun-Times reported:

Vandals spray-painted the words “Death to Israel’’ on two synagogues and a Jewish school early Saturday in three separate incidents police say could be linked and are being investigated as hate crimes.

In each case, the vandals — at times donning masks — used orange-colored paint, also shattering glass windows with bricks and rocks at two of the buildings.

A witness and security cameras identified the perpetrators as two men.

Moshe Perlstein, rabbi at Lubavitch Mesivta of Chicago, said cameras captured video of the men damaging his rabbinical school at 2756 W. Morse starting at around 4:40 a.m. The footage shows one man spray-painting the side of the building while the other ran around to the front and threw rocks at the front door, breaking a glass window, he said. The video has been turned over to police.

Similar graffiti was found at Anshe Motele Congregation, 6526 N. California, rabbi Alan Abramson said.

Lincolnwood police said vandals also scrawled “Death to Israel’’ and “Free Palestine’’ on the outside walls of Lincolnwood Jewish Congregation, 7117 N. Crawford. Mitchell Sandler, past president of the congregation, said they threw at least two bricks at the front doors, damaging four windows.
Infidel Bloggers Alliance has more on the vandalism.

FOX News is playing it safe calling the attacks "possible" hate crimes.
They would have done it during the day, but they didn't have any women or children to form a "human shield."

Certain Illinois politicians will talk about "diversity" and the need to understand....
..

GM And Ford Stock Skyrocket According To Google Finance

SEARCH BLOG: AUTOMOBILES

Somehow I missed this on the news. A couple of screen shots....


I didn't think the government loan was going to be that effective! And Ford didn't even take a loan. Wealth by association?

You have to love what you can do with computers these days. You can turn near-bankrupt companies into financially sound enterprises. You can turn a year of really cold weather into global warming.

I guess that's why it's a beta version.

..

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Not As Cold As Europe But Getting There

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

It's January; it's cold. No surprises. However, we are continuing last year's trend of below normal temperatures... so far, about 3°F below normal for the month. That's cold comfort [sorry] when looking at the forecast ahead from The Weather Channel:

The rest of the week is forecasted to have high temperatures around 13° to 18°F [versus about 31°F]. That means to get to a "normal" January, we will have to have a very warm [relatively speaking] last two weeks. We're really looking forward to that all of you AGW enthusiasts.

Nevertheless, things are not so bad. We could be living in Europe:

BRRRR! 2008-2009 is shaping up as perhaps the coldest winter in European memory

Much of Europe seized by severe winter weather
MADRID -- A rare, heavy snowfall in central Spain closed Madrid's airport and paralyzed traffic in the city and several German rivers were frozen over as much of Europe remained in the grip of Siberian conditions Friday.

The bitter cold which has embraced the much of the continent since the end of last year comes amid Russian gas cuts to several European countries.

... All four runways at Madrid's Barajas airport, Europe's fourth busiest, were closed because of the snowfall and low visibility...

Up to 10 centimeters (four inches) of snow accumulated in Madrid as temperatures in the region dropped as low as minus 6 C (21 F).

The regional government of Madrid set up a “crisis cabinet” to deal with the effects of the heavy snowfall, which also hit the region of Castilla-la-Mancha southeast of the capital as well as western Spain.

The northwestern city of Santiago de Compostela, a destination for thousands of pilgrims, recorded the heaviest snowfall in recent memory on Friday, according to the online edition of daily newspaper El Mundo.

Across the border in France, air, rail and road traffic began to return to normal in the region around the southern port of Marseille after two days of disruptions caused by heavy snow, which had paralyzed the city on Thursday.

However, around 1,000 homes remained without electricity.

In Germany, the death toll from the cold snap rose to three and several rivers were frozen over, blocking ship traffic, authorities said. Drift ice covered 80 to 90 percent of the surface of the river Elbe from Doemnitz to the Germany's main port of Hamburg in the north, a spokeswoman for the Water and Shipping Office said.

Some barges had to be freed late Thursday with industrial ice breakers.

Germany is experiencing one of its coldest winters of the past 100 years, with the mercury dropping as low as minus 34.6 C (minus 30.3 F) in the mountains in the south.

One person also died from the cold in Poland during the night, bringing the death toll in the country to 83 since November 1, most of them homeless people.

... In Portugal, four people died in a fire apparently caused by a faulty heater in an apartment building in the city of Porto. Temperatures that reached as low as minus 6 C (21 F) caused authorities in several Portuguese cities to issue tents to homeless. In the north of the country, the snow Friday cut several main roads.
Isn't Europe where all of that grumbling about slow response to Global Warming was going on? Isn't Europe where coal-fire power plants were being decommissioned? Isn't Europe where they believed they could rely on imported oil and natural gas?

Oh wait, that's the U.S. under the up-coming administration.

..

Supply And Prices Greater Than Demand

SEARCH BLOG: GASOLINE

Continuing to defy economics, Midwestern gasoline prices remain near $2.00 gallon despite oil at or below $40 per barrel. That is high, relatively speaking, to the rest of the country. All of the excuses about Venezuelan oil problems and Russian oil problems and Gaza problems is a smokescreen for some major supplier to be jacking up prices. There is no refinery problem; there is no pipeline problem; there is a supplier problem.

See this post on Wednesday.

..

Friday, January 09, 2009

10th Warmest Year Since 1998

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE

That's how a real scientist would phrase it... not like this:

I’m the NOAA co-op observer for Coal Creek Canyon, Colorado, elevation 8950 feet, in the foothills NW of Denver. Here is a graph of average temperatures for the past ten years. 2008 is by far the coldest year in the past decade, with an average of 39F.

image
Just another one of those skeptics. Read the rest of the report here.

..

It Is Easy To Be A Skeptic If You Are Not A Politician

More non-politicians who don't understand that man-made Global Warming is our greatest threat. That's probably why Al Gore is having so much trouble getting these people to agree with him. Still, Mr. Gore has the President-elect, the Congress, and the Supreme Court completely aligned with him. A portion of a larger document:

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical...The main basis of the claim that man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system.” - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.

“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists.” - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.

“So far, real measurements give no ground for concern about a catastrophic future warming.” - Scientist Dr. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, a chemical engineer at Abo Akademi University in Finland, author of 200 scientific publications and former Greenpeace member.

“Anyone who claims that the debate is over and the conclusions are firm has a fundamentally unscientific approach to one of the most momentous issues of our time.” - Solar physicist Dr. Pal Brekke, senior advisor to the Norwegian Space Centre in Oslo. Brekke has published more than 40 peer-reviewed scientific articles on the sun and solar interaction with the Earth.

“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.” - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.

“Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.” – . Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.

“After reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet.” - Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review.

“The Kyoto theorists have put the cart before the horse. It is global warming that triggers higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, not the other way round…A large number of critical documents submitted at the 1995 U.N. conference in Madrid vanished without a trace. As a result, the discussion was one-sided and heavily biased, and the U.N. declared global warming to be a scientific fact,” Andrei Kapitsa, a Russian geographer and Antarctic ice core researcher.

“Nature's regulatory instrument is water vapor: more carbon dioxide leads to less moisture in the air, keeping the overall GHG content in accord with the necessary balance conditions.” – Prominent Hungarian Physicist and environmental researcher Dr. Miklós Zágoni reversed his view of man-made warming and is now a skeptic. Zágoni was once Hungary’s most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol.

“For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" - Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.

“Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.” - Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.

“The quantity of CO2 we produce is insignificant in terms of the natural circulation between air, water and soil... I am doing a detailed assessment of the UN IPCC reports and the Summaries for Policy Makers, identifying the way in which the Summaries have distorted the science.” - South African Nuclear Physicist and Chemical Engineer Dr. Philip Lloyd, a UN IPCC co-coordinating lead author who has authored over 150 refereed publications.

“Many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly (from promoting warming fears), without having their professional careers ruined.” - Atmospheric physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh.

“All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead.” - Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut, served as staff physicist at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

“Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense…The present alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning.” - Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles.

“CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another….Every scientist knows this, but it doesn’t pay to say so…Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps Europeans in the driver’s seat and developing nations walking barefoot.” - Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu University in Japan.

“The [global warming] scaremongering has its justification in the fact that it is something that generates funds.” - Award-winning Paleontologist Dr. Eduardo Tonni of the Committee for Scientific Research in Buenos Aires and head of the Paleontology Department at the University of La Plata.

“Whatever the weather, it's not being caused by global warming. If anything, the climate may be starting into a cooling period.” Atmospheric scientist Dr. Art V. Douglas, former Chair of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska, and is the author of numerous papers for peer-reviewed publications.

“But there is no falsifiable scientific basis whatever to assert this warming is caused by human-produced greenhouse gasses because current physical theory is too grossly inadequate to establish any cause at all.” - Chemist Dr. Patrick Frank, who has authored more than 50 peer-reviewed articles.

“The ‘global warming scare’ is being used as a political tool to increase government control over American lives, incomes and decision making. It has no place in the Society's activities.” - Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack Schmitt who flew on the Apollo 17 mission and formerly of the Norwegian Geological Survey and for the U.S. Geological Survey.

“Earth has cooled since 1998 in defiance of the predictions by the UN-IPCC….The global temperature for 2007 was the coldest in a decade and the coldest of the millennium…which is why ‘global warming’ is now called ‘climate change.’” - Climatologist Dr. Richard Keen of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado. [Didn't Dr. Keen get space in the next post?]

“I have yet to see credible proof of carbon dioxide driving climate change, yet alone man-made CO2 driving it. The atmospheric hot-spot is missing and the ice core data refute this. When will we collectively awake from this deceptive delusion?” - Dr. G LeBlanc Smith, a retired Principal Research Scientist with Australia’s CSIRO.

Contact: Marc Morano 202-224-5762 Marc_Morano@EPW.senate.gov to tell him how upset you are with these non-politicians daring to contradict our President-elect, Congress, and Supreme Court.
If these non-politicians understood the political importance of saying that man-made global warming was causing global warming [which is now climate change because of global cooling], they wouldn't be making those kind of statements. Instead, they would get together and sign a document that says, "We're all gonna die from flooding and mosquitoes!"
That way, all of the new cap and scams and all of the big government grants and all of the anti-market energy policies would be safe.
..

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Killing Coal And Killing Our Economy - Part 3

SEARCH BLOG: ENERGY and GOVERNMENT

READ PART 1 BY CLICKING HERE
READ PART 2 BY CLICKING HERE

A bit of related news from the Detroit Free Press online:

LANSING -- A coalition of environmental activists used a public hearing Tuesday on a proposed coal-fired power plant in Rogers City to renew their call for Gov. Jennifer Granholm to block construction of all such plants and hasten Michigan's transition to so-called green energy.

Quantcast

The 600-megawatt plant, to be built by the Wolverine Power Supply Cooperative, is one of several proposals for new coal-fired generators to meet future energy demands and replace older power plants.

Some of the permit decisions by the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality are expected to come in the next few months.

The environmentalists urged Granholm to reject coal in favor of alternative energy, with an emphasis on wind and solar power, as a way to protect public health, stem global warming and create green energy jobs.

"This is her opportunity to slam the brakes on Michigan's one-of-a-kind coal rush," said the Sierra Club's Anne Woiwode.

Granholm has said that emissions from coal-fired plants "are a growing concern," and financial institutions are increasingly reluctant to invest in carbon-based utilities. But her spokeswoman, Liz Boyd, said Tuesday that the administration doesn't rule out the possibility of permit approval for one or more of the pending coal-fired proposals.

Jeff Holyfield, spokesman for Consumers Energy, which has applied for approval of an 800-megawatt plant in Bay City, said the new plants are needed.

Consumers supplies 58% of customers' energy needs with coal now, he said, and a transition to alternative sources would take several decades. Alternative-energy technology is improving, Holyfield said, but green energy remains more expensive to produce and less reliable than energy produced from traditional sources.

Au contraire, mon frère‼ Our President-elect is dedicated to the proposition that new coal plants will be severely penalized... even to the extent of bankrupting companies daring to build them. You must do as the automobile manufacturers must do: accept the mandate regardless of the market... or the facts.


The Sierra Club has our best interests in mind... even if we can't afford it. Don't worry Anne, we'll just cut down more trees. They are renewable... even if there is a bit of smoke from burning them in our homes.


The point of these three posts related to coal-powered electricity and plans to move to alternative energy sources is ... or should be ... obvious. Don't be stupid about the conversion process and timeline. Just because someone has been elected to Congress or state legislatures does not make that person an engineering or logistical or economic expert. Just because someone has a commitment to environmental causes does not make that person an engineering or logistical or economic expert. Wishing something to be so and demanding it regardless of the facts is one thing: stupid.
And... stupidity has its own rewards.
..

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Gasoline Shortage In Midwest Or Booming Economy

SEARCH BLOG: OIL

Is it mere coincidence that the area with some of the highest gasoline prices in the U.S. also has the weakest economy? Could be a gasoline shortage... but a lot more people are unemployed and staying home... so it can't be caused by a booming economy either.

Maybe it's just a case of "hit 'em while they're down." Or maybe it's all those refineries getting ready for producing their "summer blends."

Just how are those wholesale and retail prices being set? And who is doing it?

..

Killing Coal And Killing Our Economy - Part 2

SEARCH BLOG: ENERGY and GOVERNMENT

READ PART 1 BY CLICKING HERE

As shown yesterday, about 3% of present electricity is generated from "other" or renewable resources.

Coal, by far the largest energy source of our electricity, is the target of eco-vigilantes and opportunist politicians... who seek to replace it with non-CO2 producing sources... wind, solar, hydro [no, not really], wind, solar, wind.... Some are willing to go nuclear, but the hardcore stick to wind, solar, wind, solar.

Coal is far from perfect, but it is three things: available, reliable, and cheap. The alternatives are... none of the above.

A number of states have passed legislation requiring significant increases in electricity generated by these "other" sources. Chart and data below from here.


Below are the percentage goals for "other" energy sources for electricity and the target years. This has many states going from negligible to 1/5 of their electricity from these "other sources" in about a decade. Ask yourself: how is this going to happen? Massachusetts can't get by the Kennedys to build offshore wind farms.
Think about how many thousands of windmills must be produced, erected, and linked to the national grid. Have to get the land first... $$$. Have to have production capacity... $$$. Have to build connecting transmission lines... $$$. Have to have wind... free, free free! Hey, one out of four isn't all that bad, is it?
Well, think about it.

But you can see, from left to right, the states' deadlines for achieving the percent RPS legislated. Those are compared with the national average 3% present levels. 4 states demand from 20-30% of their total electricity from alternative energy in 1 - 3 years. That ought to be a hoot! Especially in those states directing a specific portion from solar energy... including sunny Pennsylvania.
Wow! Look At Hawaii. Well, that makes sense actually. Plenty of wind, sun, and geothermal energy... and a 20+ year timeline. Most of the other requirements are... optimistic [being kind here].
Click on image above for better resolution.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
V
And then a miracle happens.


Amen, I say, Amen! And, as they say in government, "Our wish is your command."

READ PART 3 BY CLICKING HERE

..

Alternative Energy

SEARCH BLOG: ENERGY

What happens when government mandates "renewable" energy sources and intentionally restricts the use of other available energy resources? What happens when energy becomes too expensive?

People adapt.


Meanwhile, in Europe where "we can import what we need" reigns.... I'm sure they'll find some "alternative energy."

..

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Killing Coal And Killing Our Economy

SEARCH BLOG: COAL

I received the email farther down the post the other day and am still going through the links.

Here is the issue: the country generates 48% of its electric power through coal and almost 21% through natural gas. Another 19% is generated by nuclear power. President-elect Obama has aroused the anti-coal, CO2 forces who want to dismantle the coal-powered electric grid and replace it with "environmentally friendly alternatives"... whatever those might be. Those alternatives do not include additional natural gas or nuclear power facilities. Don't look for more hydroelectric power [6%]... and the Democratic Congress is keeping U.S. reserves of natural gas off limits.

Coal is our cheapest source of electric power. China is building hundreds of such plants. Poland is one of Europe's few electricity exporters and uses coal power almost exclusively. Anti-energy forces in the U.S. believe that we should sacrifice our future economic growth for reliance on unreliable alternative sources such as solar and wind-powered electricity, which are extremely expensive as well.

These "other energy sources" now constitute only 3% of our present electricity production. It's going to take a national landscape... literally... of windmills to replace coal.

The logic appears to be: kill our economy and save the planet.

The material I referenced is below. You decide.

UPDATE: READ PART 2 BY CLICKING HERE
READ PART 3 BY CLICKING HERE

Bruce,

Hope that you can find some time to digest this info. I am a bit alarmed.

Talk about a collision course...

Bill

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) by State
http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/rps.cfm
and
http://www.pewclimate.org/sites/default/modules/usmap/pdf.php?file=5907

*This is an interactive map with info per state. The second link provides a complete roll up.


Coal plans go up in smoke
Environmentalists in the US have halted a huge new wave of coal-fired power stations. What lessons can Europe learn from them?Juliette Jowit The Guardian
Wednesday 3 September 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/03/activists.fossilfuels

Meet the Boomers
What's the best way to phase out the huge fleet of aging coal plants?
By Ted Nace at 3:04 PM on 11 Nov 2008
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/11/10/151814/44

Existing U.S. Coal Plants
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Existing_U.S._Coal_Plants

Existing Capacity by Energy Source
EIA, DOE
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html

Proposed coal plants in the United States
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Category:Proposed_coal_plants_in_the_United_States

Financial Risks of Coal Energy Investment
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Financial_Risks_of_Coal_Energy_Investment

Stopping the Coal Rush
Sierra Club
http://www.sierraclub.org/environmentallaw/coal/plantlist.asp

Nuclear and the New American President
12.31.08
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1909

Another Inconvenient Truth: The Need for Coal
10.2.08
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1839

Dynegy pulls out of coal deal
By TOM FOWLER Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle
Jan. 2, 2009, 10:42PM
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6192049.html


========

Existing U.S. Coal Plants
Years Built # of Plants Total Capacity
2000-2004 15 1,837 MW
1995-1999 27 4,524 MW
1990-1994 67 8,638 MW
1985-1989 104 23,577 MW
1980-1984 119 55,887 MW
1975-1979 126 55,845 MW
1970-1974 136 66,334 MW
1965-1969 166 42,142 MW
1960-1964 162 25,240 MW
1955-1959 221 29,568 MW
1950-1954 234 18,674 MW
1940-1949 111 3,194 MW
1930-1939 20 132 MW
1921-1929 14 87 MW

=========
=========

Legislation in the 110th Congress Related to Global Climate Change
http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_congress/110thcongress

Economy-wide Cap-and-Trade Proposals in the 110th Congress
As of December 1, 2008
http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Chart-and-Graph-120108.pdf

Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 2191, the
Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007
Report prepared by
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
Energy Information Agency (EIA)
U.S. Department of Energy
April 2008
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/s2191/pdf/sroiaf(2008)01.pdf

*This is a worthwhile read. It's complicated, but provides an idea of what will happen when this type of legislation is passed.

America's Climate Security Act of 2007
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America's_Climate_Security_Act_of_2007

America's Climate Security Act of 2007
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=America's_Climate_Security_Act_of_2007

S.2191 - America's Climate Security Act of 2007
Title: A bill to direct the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to establish a program to decrease emissions of greenhouse gases, and for other purposes.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:S.2191:

Economic Analysis of the Lieberman-Warner
Climate Security Act of 2007
http://www.crai.com/uploadedFiles/RELATING_MATERIALS/Publications/BC/Energy_and_Environment/files/CRA_NMA_S2191_April08_2008.pdf

==========

Energy & Environment
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/domestic/energy/

Top 10 Energy and Environment Priorities for the Obama Administration and 111th Congress
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/environment_priorities.html

Green recovery
A Program to Create Good Jobs and
Start Building a Low-Carbon Economy
September 2008
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/09/green_recovery.html
and
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/09/pdf/green_recovery.pdf

Investing in a Green Economy
Using Cap-and-Trade Auction Revenue to Help American Families and Spur Clean Energy Innovation
June 2, 2008
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/06/auction_revenue_report.html

===========

Dear Barack and Michelle
An open letter to the president and first lady from the nation's top climate scientist
02 Jan 2009
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2009/1/1/23367/28094

Tell Barack Obama the Truth – The Whole Truth
http://gristmill.grist.org/images/user/8/20081229_Obama_revised.pdf

Dr. James E. Hansen
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/

workshop held in Washington, DC on 3 November 2008
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/MiniWorkshop_all/

My FilesShared Folder 'Nov_3_Workshop'
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=53eef30a28cad46991b20cc0d07ba4d2e59c28d3c1a2c3db

===========

America's Power
http://www.americaspower.org/

Statement: ACCCE Details More than 80 CO2 Capture and Storage Projects
http://www.americaspower.org/News/Statement-ACCCE-Details-More-than-80-CO2-Capture-and-Storage-Projects

Americans for Balanced Energy Choices
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Americans_for_Balanced_Energy_Choices

============

EPA’s Response to the TVA Kingston Fossil Plant Fly Ash Release
http://www.epa.gov/region4/kingston/index.html

EPA On-Scene Coordinator - TVA Kingston Fly Ash Release
http://epaosc.net/doc_list.asp?site_id=4642

Appalachian Voices
http://www.appvoices.org/

TVA Coal Ash Disaster
End Mountaintop Removal Action and Resource Center
http://www.ilovemountains.org/tva-spill/

Preliminary tests find high levels of toxic chemicals in Harriman TN fly ash deposits
APPALACHIAN VOICES
January 1, 2009
http://www.appvoices.org/resources/Coal-Ash-Disaster-Test-Results-Appalachian-Voices-Press-release.pdf

============

..

Monday, January 05, 2009

Stimulating Thought About Economic Stimulus

SEARCH BLOG: GOVERNMENT

The other day I wrote a post:

2009 Survival

So, I offered this to Bill: we have to revise our business taxes and our trade policies to reflect how the world really works... not how some politician-philosopher wants it to work.
  • Eliminate most business taxes and focus on achieving the economic prosperity that results from ultra-competitive business and high employment. Here in Michigan, businesses get charged the full amount of property taxes for idle facilities while the businesses that own them are losing money or going bankrupt... how does that help the state's economy?
  • Make all trade policies... and practices... reciprocal. If a country charges 15% value added tax for our products... do the same for theirs. If a country manipulates their currency to benefit their industries, address that in terms that discourage such behavior. Trade should be mutually beneficial, not skewed to strengthen the businesses in one country while undermining those in another. [note: this should extend to real practices, not just the wording of the treaty, so that administrative obstructionism is reciprocated until such onerous practices are eliminated]
A few days later I wrote the following in this post:

The Bear Is Back

Surprise, surprise: Russia halts gas to Ukraine.

Okay, they waited until January... big whoop.

Harry, Nancy, and Barack... are you paying attention yet? Energy self-reliance. Trillions of cubic feet of U.S. natural gas waiting for you to get off your duffs. Billions of barrels of oil, too.

As Thomas Paine said: "Lead, follow, or get out of the way." But, then, none of you are exactly another Thomas Paine.
Today, the Christian Science Monitor included the following statement in this article:

Republicans are urging a recovery plan that is anchored in tax cuts and expanded energy production, including exploration and drilling in previously protected offshore sites. An offshore drilling ban, in effect since 1982, lapsed at the end of the 110th Congress.

Well, at they got two out of three.

..

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Vulcan Philosophy

SEARCH BLOG: GOVERNMENT

Gene Roddenberry created Star Trek
... several television series and movies, as well as books and toys and strange-looking people who tried to make life imitate art. On his way to making a fortune, Mr. Roddenberry managed to agitate [much more than stir] the imaginations of millions of people around the world to the idea of life beyond earth, a world of technology that solved every problem, and new other-worldly philosophies. He allowed us to forget our own reality for a reality that might be.

In Mr. Roddenberry's future, money was no longer necessary. People had jobs... presumably based on their talents more than their connections... but their needs and wants were simply taken care of by some undefined agency. "Replicators" could make food or tools or whatever you asked for... you just had to manage your "rations."

For many of Mr. Roddenberry's followers, the various manifestations of the Vulcan character... beginning with "Mr. Spock," garnered the most interest.


Purely logical beings who converted from a race of violent, savage tribes by the efforts of a great philosopher. Despite their logic, the viewer or reader always sensed the underlying passion and conflict of the Vulcan character. And underlying the Vulcan logic was the Vulcan philosophy that "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few."

Yet, ultimately, even Mr. Spock came to understand that the needs of the one can outweigh the needs of the many. So much for science fiction....
Today, in the USA, we have a parallel conflict. Our country was founded on the principle that the individual should be protected from the power of the government or a tyrannical majority. But every day that principle of protection is challenged in subtle ways that are always prefaced by "yes, but." "You have the right to ----. Yes, but...."

The original Bill of Rights:
Amendment I
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances. Yes, but it seems not so much for Christians or Christmas.

Amendment II
A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed. Yes, but not in Washington, D.C. no matter what the Supreme Court may say.

Amendment III
No soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law. Whew, no yes, but yet.

Amendment IV
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized. Yes, but there is the Patriot Act.

Amendment V
No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the militia, when in actual service in time of war or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation. Yes, but we enforce this selectively.

Amendment VI
In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense. Yes, but "speedy"... that's a relative term, geologically.

Amendment VII
In suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise reexamined in any court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law. Yes, but now we have Judge Judy.

Amendment VIII
Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted. Yes, but who can really say what is excessive?

Amendment IX
The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people. Yes, but ve haf vays.

Amendment X
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people. Yes, but we have Federal laws covering every contingency.

and the other 17 Amendments....
Thank goodness we are still a democracy [well, technically a republic, but let's not dwell on incidentals]. We are protected from a government or majority that would take away our basic rights in exchange for protection against great perils like, oh let's see, Global Warming... or some such subterfuge. Of course, we long ago said that because those who earned most have more rights, they should pay higher tax rates than the majority. They do have more rights, don't they?
Regardless, how many rights equal a carbon credit? I hear there is an exchange program coming.
By the way, does anyone have any idea how many Federal laws there are that infringe upon the Ninth and Tenth Amendments? Just a rhetorical question, obviously, since our Supreme Court would have thrown them out... right? Rights!

..

Saturday, January 03, 2009

More Diet Stuff

SEARCH BLOG: FOOD

I've been learning more about "low carb" dieting than I really wanted, but because I can see the positive effect on my wife, I have set aside the chips and dip, chocolate "turtles", beer, and other essentials in order to encourage her.

Meals were beginning to get a little dreary and not very satisfying, but then my wife came up with some whey protein shakes and a great recipe for flax "bread." I had one protein shake that was really very good:

  • 1 ounce of half and half
  • 7 ounces of water
  • 1/4 cup protein powder
  • some fresh strawberrys
...all blended together. Excellent. But the real delight was this:

FLAX SANDWICH BUNS
1/2 cup plus 1 tablespoon flax meal
1/4 cup plus 2 tablespoons parmesan cheese
1 1/2 teaspoons onion powder
3/4 teaspoon baking powder
1 1/2 teaspoon granular Splenda
1/2-1 teaspoon caraway seeds, optional
1 1/2 teaspoons dry minced onion
3 eggs
1 1/2 tablespoons water
1 1/2 tablespoons oil

Put the dry minced onion in a small bowl and add just enough water to moisten; let stand until softened. Mix the dry ingredients; add the onions, eggs, water and oil. Pour the batter into 6 greased muffin top pans. Bake at 325° 15-20 minutes. To serve, split the buns horizontally to make two halves using a long, thin knife.

Makes 6 servings
Can be frozen

Per Serving: 140 Calories; 11g Fat; 8g Protein; 5g Carbohydrate; 3.5g Dietary Fiber; 1.5g Net Carbs

read more here. She replaced the minced onion with fresh onion that she sauteed and a small amount of stevia instead of the Splenda. Rather than the regular brown flax, she used golden flax seed which has a more pleasant taste. She already had bags of flax seeds so she ground them in a small coffee grinder to make the flax meal. The results were fantastic.

This healthier eating is beginning to look better.

..

Diet Cooking

SEARCH BLOG: FOOD


My wife started a new low-carb approach to eating about a month ago and has lost about 12 lbs. She has also lowered her blood pressure a bit. That's quite an achievement for the holiday period. So much for the upside.

Tonight she prepared us two lean pork chops and some vegetables. Because she cooks, I clean... a kind of understood arrangement. After our simple meal, I walked over to the sink to find these dirty items... excluding the dishes, glasses, and utensils that we used for eating:

  • one large frying pan
  • one medium frying pan
  • one medium pot
  • one small pot
  • one baking pan
  • one medium bowl
  • one cutting board
  • one large strainer
  • two spatulas
Again, that's for two people, two pork chops and some vegetables. Imagine getting "dishpan hands" from that meal!

I'm thinking she is working on her own TV cooking show.

..

Friday, January 02, 2009

Perhaps They Expected A Kinder and Gentler Israel

SEARCH BLOG: MIDDLE EAST

Stunned and angered that Israel actually had the chutzpah to retaliate against them for firing rockets into Israel at civilian targets, Hamas takes action ... read more.

..

The Bear Is Back

SEARCH BLOG: RUSSIA and NATURAL GAS

Thursday, August 21, 2008
The Real Russian Threat To Europe

Much speculation swirls about after the Russian invasion of Georgia and the strong words to Poland about being the possible target of nuclear missiles if a missile defense system is deployed.

On August 12, I wrote:
If the Georgian pipeline is disrupted and Iranian oil supplies can be made chronically unreliable, then Russia owns Europe... and the Bears are back! Russian Bears, that is.
That is the real nature of the Russian threat. They can control oil out of Georgia and they can simply wait until November and announce that they have no interest in honoring their oil and natural gas commitments to Europe unless certain "understandings" are made. And that understanding is simple: the Russian bear is to be treated like the Alpha Dog... and you give the Alpha Dog what it wants.

You don't have to look in Putin's eyes to know what is in his soul.
Surprise, surprise: Russia halts gas to Ukraine.

Okay, they waited until January... big whoop.

Harry, Nancy, and Barack... are you paying attention yet? Energy self-reliance. Trillions of cubic feet of U.S. natural gas waiting for you to get off your duffs. Billions of barrels of oil, too.
As Thomas Paine said: "Lead, follow, or get out of the way." But, then, none of you are exactly another Thomas Paine.
...

Thursday, January 01, 2009

December 2008 Weather

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

December was pretty nasty around southeastern Michigan. Most of the month was extremely cold and only a very warm couple of days in the last week moved the average temperature up to within 4°F of normal.

The February through December average was 2.4°F below normal with most of the cold conditions in the early and late part of the year... adding significantly to heating billings.

All-in-all, 2008 reinforced the downward trend in average temperatures in this area. It is possible that somehow North America is simply a giant anomaly in the inexorable progress of global warming... but I doubt it, seriously.

..

Happy New Year

SEARCH BLOG: HOLIDAYS

Wishing you all good health and good fortune this new year.

..

Can"t Find It?

Use the SEARCH BLOG feature at the upper left. For example, try "Global Warming".

You can also use the "LABELS" below or at the end of each post to find related posts.

Blog Archive

Cost of Gasoline - Enter Your Zipcode or Click on Map

CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

My photo
Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)