Immigration Bill - A Failure To Communicate

SEARCH BLOG: ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Every medium is filled with discussion about the immigration bill - pro and con. Some insist that we need those illegally here and we should accept the fact that they are here and move on. Others say that our culture is being overrun and a separate nation is developing within our borders.

President Bush has put the full weight of his administration behind this bill. In yesterday's post, you could follow the link to see who voted for or against closure on the bill. The issue is one that is dividing the U.S. as effectively as the War in Iraq.

Although I am well aware that emails to the White House go into ether-oblivion, I wrote the following just to get it on the record so that I could post it here.

Subject: Immigration Bill

It is a mistake... legally, ethically, and politically.

President Bush is creating animosity among the middle-class, conservative voters who brought him into the White House. It is hard to believe that he is that far out of touch with his support base. These are people who believe in the rule of law. Just because large numbers of foreigners are breaking our laws does not mean we must change or adapt. If our immigration laws are just and fairly enforced, then foreigners seeking admittance into the U.S. must comply with those laws. Middle-class conservatives do not accept the concept of the rule of convenience. These voters see the administration failing on two fronts: past failures to enforce the law and present attempts to circumvent the law.

This will have very telling ramifications in the 2008 elections.

Unfortunately, President Bush is too well insulated from his support base to realize that he is losing the 2008 election for his successor, unless that person repudiates the Bush administration's position on immigration.

There is only one reasonable and enforceable solution: require all employers to verify the legal status of all of their employees subject to a substantial fine, felony conviction, and jail time for failure to comply. Include a provision that Federally shields all employers who comply with those requirements from lawsuits brought against them by individuals or organizations, such as the ACLU, who view such verification as harassment or a violation of privacy.

A social security number would not be considered proof by itself. A social security number combined with a birth certificate and passport or high school records would be considered proof. All are readily available to citizens at little cost or effort. For legal foreign workers, a valid visa and/or green card would be sufficient along with a copy of their passport.

If employers need foreign workers that badly, they need to follow the laws of the land. It will follow quickly that without economic incentive to come to the U.S. illegally, border enforcement will be much less of a problem.

Of course, the automated response to my email was:

On behalf of President Bush, thank you for your correspondence.

We appreciate hearing your views and welcome your suggestions.

Due to the large volume of e-mail received, the White House cannot respond to every message.

Thank you again for taking the time to write.

Of course they can't.
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UHI

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Present weather from the local weather site - shows the current temperature and the forecasted high temperature.


Temperature reading taken at 6:05 p.m. [7 minutes earlier than the screen print above] from our southern facing porch with thermometer 5 feet from the house:


Certainly, you can argue that this thermometer is not as accurate as a weather site device, but it has been calibrated to our electronic thermostat in the house, so it is reasonably close.

I would have to say that a 10-degree difference is not a reasonable difference. Since I am working within my porch, I can attest that it is no where near 90 degrees as being reported by the weather site. Another local site reports 88 degrees right now.

So, the question I pose is just where those weather sites located that they are 8-10 degrees warmer than my southern-facing porch? Perhaps surrounded by asphalt and traffic? Urban Heat Island effect in action?

UPDATE... on an almost real-time basis....


The reported temperature dropped 4 degrees in one hour. The porch thermometer has remained the same at 80 degrees.

Should I suspect that the weather sites are being affected by the sun and immediately surrounding conditions... or that my thermometer is broken and stuck at 80 degrees?

LAST UPDATE... it's now 3 hours after the initial readings. The sun has just set so any solar gain is not affecting readings. There may be some residual heat from surroundings.


My porch thermometer reads 77 degrees. That's a two degree variance which could be attributable to the 15 acres of park adjacent to my property versus whatever conditions are at the nearby weather site.

My porch is screened on 3 sides and the roof has an 8 inch overhang which keeps the thermometer shaded and lightly vented. The thermometer is situated on the eastern side of the porch about 8 feet above the ground outside.

What does this prove?

While you can dispute the accuracy of my thermometer, I suggest that it demonstrates that the Urban Heat Island effect may be in play here and affecting the readings taken for both my community and the adjacent community. Whether the actual difference was 8-10 degrees or 3-4 degrees is really not the point. The point is that, even giving back 5 degrees as an error in my thermometer (which I don't believe is the case), it is quite possible that the equipment where the reported readings were taken may be poorly situated for accurate readings.

This is an experiment that any of you can do for your communities with a similarly situated thermometer.

ADDENDUM:

This from Climate Audit corresponds to my experience. This morning, the air temperature as measured on my porch was 65 degrees. This is the weather station temperature:


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The Balancing California Act

SEARCH BLOG: CALIFORNIA

U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., blistered Detroit automakers, saying the industry had "buffaloed" Congress with false claims of financial and technological hurdles to meeting a proposed standard of 35 miles per gallon by 2020.
[source]

Separately....

Ford Motor Co. is entering this summer's national labor talks with a clear, if audacious, goal: Cut hourly labor costs by about 30 percent to reach parity with Asian rivals operating in the United States.
[source]

Proposed....

Sen. Carl Levin [Michigan] has proposed legislation limiting California's share of the total national undocumented workers to 11%. Any excess of undocumented workers must be transported to other states with high labor costs to enable those states to offset the financial burdens placed upon those states by California's demands to enact special and privileged legislation exceeding Federal standards. California will have to document that it has complied with Michigan's undocumented workers Balancing Act.

"California is taking advantage of its proximity to Mexico to reduce overall labor costs in agriculture, food service, landscaping and car pimping." said Sen. Levin. "States such as Michigan that produce products such as automobiles are at a distinct disadvantage because they must use high-cost union labor, which Sen. Feinstein as a Democrat claims to support but doesn't, while California ignores Federal laws regarding labor so that it can continue its high-end lifestyle. It is only fair and balanced that California should share the cost of burdens it is imposing on other states by being forced to give up its low cost labor. Michigan agriculture needs cheap cherry pickers and the auto industry will be able to take those car-pimping illegals and put them to good use on the assembly lines." [well... maybe not]

Oh, just one more item... here is the voting record for the recent Senate Immigration Bill ... you know, forgive and forget to do anything in the future bill. Note who voted for and who voted against the bill. Hint, Sen. Feinstein really wants to keep her illegals.

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Duh Award Winner of the Day

SEARCH BLOG: HUMOR

My son has a certain wit that some might miss, but this was way too obvious.

[click image to see larger image]

Google Analytics Beta - 3rd Look

SEARCH BLOG: GOOGLE

I keep going back to the new version of the site metrics that Google has produced. It appears that either I have been better at rooting out information or Google is gradually adding some of the information available in the old version to their Beta version.

Perhaps it is just familiarity with the old and lack of familiarity with the new. But it surely seems that Google has gone out of its way to make it difficult to find some of the information that was really easy to find previously.

I think some of it may have to do with this concept of "packaging" information into commonly used groups. Microsoft has done this with Vista so that some of what used to be harder to find information is "packaged" under various "ribbon" tabs. Of course, if it is not in the pre-ordained "ribbons" then you have a bit more of a challenge getting the exact command you want to execute.

Google apparently has tried to figure out what are logical groupings or views of data and then restructured the data within those views... their "ribbons".

So now, for example, if you want hourly statistics, instead of just clicking on the calendar day (1 step), you have to click on a date pull-down menu, select the calendar day, and then "Apply Range" (3 steps). Then you click on Visitors, Visit Trending, Visits (3 more steps). Then finally under the number of visits you can click on the small print that says "Hourly". That's a total of 7 steps to do what could be done previously in one step. UPDATE - Down to 5 clicks if you click Visits on the Dashboard and then Hourly.

Another annoying "feature" is the way the sidebar menus collapse instead of staying open the way the old version did. That ensures extra clicks to navigate... just what is needed.

The notion behind this "packaging" seems to be that the users are really too dumb to use a high level look and then drill down in a crosstabs approach. Google has taken the old communist approach that the government knows best and will provide what is needed in the "best" way... the government's way.

Okay, that's a little harsh. And maybe I've just happened upon the most egregious example of the spoon feeding "packaging" approach.

Regardless, some of the old information is still missing in the Beta version... or I just haven't clicked enough times to get to it.

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War With Iran

SEARCH BLOG: IRAN

It's all over the news! The independent senator from Connecticut proffers that its time for war with Iran.

The Iranian government is the political counterpart of The Simpsons. It's hard to take anything they say seriously, except they do extraordinarily stupid and annoying things... including getting caught training and supplying insurgents.

I got this related email from a gentleman with whom I have telephone conversations and exchange thoughts via email:

IRAN:

1. Senator Liebermann calls for attacks on Iran over terrorist support to Iraq elements on Face the Nation.

2. U.S. is presently conducting a naval exercise, primarily defending against small boat attacks.

3. U.S. advises Israel that it will reassess Iran at the end of the year; Israel agrees that diplomacy at this time is the best course of action.

4. Iran is ramping up its efforts to secure anti-U.S. support in Central America, South America, and elsewhere.

5. Iran threatens global retaliation if attacked, indicating that Iran already has cells in place for such a response.

Question: Do you think that we're really going to attack Iran within the next eighteen months?

I can't imagine that we should expect positive global political developments from such an action. If the U.S. is contemplating attacking Iran, shouldn't the U.S. save the assault and political fallout for its nuclear weapons program? At this point, is there any strong possibility that the U.S. would undertake that potential mission? Has that moment passed or simply been delayed due to the Iraq war?

What is Liebermann thinking? If the U.S. was going to strike Iran over its terrorist and general insurgency support to elements in Iraq, why didn't the U.S. conduct such an attack two years ago?

I think Elvis has left the building.

I responded:

I think Bush's "capital" has been spent with regard to wars in the Middle East.

It would take a direct attack by Iranian troops to get U.S. military involved. Iran's mullahs may be fanatics, but they aren't stupid. They will continue to push the world's hot buttons only until it gets them to the edge of war... then they will make some phony conciliatory gesture to stop any action against them. Their goal is to spread their influence around the region, not their blood.

So, Senator Joe, I think you may be correct, but you are not going to be right.

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Shell Promotion

SEARCH BLOG: MARKETING

Shell Oil sent out a slick little DVD with the latest issue of Popular Science [and maybe some other magazines]. It is called "Eureka."

While obviously self-serving, it was done quite well. It won't make Greenpeace sport Shell logos on their website, but at least it isn't an annoying movie about how government regulation is getting in the way of exploration.

I still think gasoline prices are way too high.

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Friends - First or Best?

SEARCH BLOG: HUMOR

This one from "Quotes of the Day" got me to thinking:

Contrary to general belief, I do not believe that friends are necessarily the people you like best, they are merely the people who got there first.
- Peter Ustinov

There may be some truth to that, but last night I had a talk with a friend of mine in Milwaukee who I have known since my high school days. We worked together, played sports together, traveled together, and raised our families in parallel. My first son was named after him.

He is the kind of person I would have chosen for a friend whenever I had met him. Honest... look-you-in-the-eye-and-tell-you-like-it-is honest... a never-let-you-down kind of person who would rather take a loss than be a cheat. I have always known what to expect and I always expected the best from him... and was never disappointed.

So, while I'm sure that Peter Ustinov's remark was meant to be humorous, it lacks a little accuracy. We meet many people when we are young, but they don't become our friends because they are first. They become our friends because, for us, they are the best. And if they are not the best, perhaps we have to examine ourselves and our judgment.

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Global Cooling Leads To Droughts

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

A new study may force some alarmists to re-think their global warming doomsday scenarios... global cooling, not warming, has caused loss of needed rains in the past.

Time to modify those models, I guess.

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Christians Need Not Apply

SEARCH BLOG: IRAQ

A story on page one today: Insurgents' threat: Convert, pay up or get out

Are you surprised? When any group maintains that it is God who gives them authority over everything and everyone else, s#%* happens. All you have to do is look to history. Christian nations and leaders were no less guilty of this application of the belief that God was created in Man's image and, therefore, would think like Man.

So, with the full authority of Allah-created-in-Man's-image, "An Al Qaeda-affiliated insurgent group is giving Christians in Baghdad a stark set of options: Convert to Islam, marry your daughters to our fighters, pay an Islamic tax or leave with only the clothes on your back."

Of course, these "Muslims" are not really the "real" Muslims any more than the KKK were the real "Christians." But there are enough of them to cause a lot of trouble. They are the "wolves" of the Middle East. They prey upon the helpless and defenseless... the "sheep." Who is there to protect them... to be the "sheepdogs" if not the U.S.?

There are those who say we must try to "negotiate" with these wolves. Join them in the "peace" process. Allow them to share power.

A few thousand years ago, a wise man living not too far from present-day Iraq wrote this:

THE WOLVES thus addressed the Sheepdogs: "Why should you, who are
like us in so many things, not be entirely of one mind with us,
and live with us as brothers should? We differ from you in one
point only. We live in freedom, but you bow down to and slave
for men, who in return for your services flog you with whips and
put collars on your necks. They make you also guard their sheep,
and while they eat the mutton throw only the bones to you. If
you will be persuaded by us, you will give us the sheep, and we
will enjoy them in common, till we all are surfeited." The Dogs
listened favorably to these proposals, and, entering the den of
the Wolves, they were set upon and torn to pieces.

[Aesop's Fables - The Wolves and the Sheepdogs]

Nice... and Normal

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER






Really makes up for winter!

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Self Interest First

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Politics and science are not often good bedfellows. They are even less likely to occupy the same bedroom when the politics and science are those sponsored by the United Nations.

Most of you have read that the Kyoto efforts to reduce CO2 have been essentially replaced by the G8 (Europe and U.S.) alternative proposals and now the G8 proposal is being rejected by China and India. [from Benny Peiser] It is not in their self-interest.

Sure, in per capita terms, the west produces more CO2 than China or India by a large margin. But because the populations of those two countries are so large, they will be the largest absolute producers of CO2 very soon. Still, they reject the notion that they should alter their economic development paths to conform with the UN urging to use more non-fossil fuel power sources.

What does this mean?

Quite simply, it follows the old saw that "a bird in hand is worth two in the bush." China and India see clear evidence that their economic development plans are working... fabulously. They realize that the steps needed to reduce their CO2 output would dramatically reduce that economic growth. So, the clear economic choice is to ignore the political pleadings of the rest of the world and continue on their present path.

But what about their future which will be endangered by oppressive heat, droughts, lost shorelines, etc.?

The answer is simple: they are not worried about that. Why? Probably because they see the predicted problems as much too remote of a possibility to give up their economic futures for it. They haven't seen any, not just some but any, evidence that they are presently being affected by politically-sponsored global warming... nor are they likely to be affected over at least the next 100 or so years.

By then, their economic and technological developments are very likely to allow them to deal with any remote possibility that climate change will have an adverse affect on them.

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Life Out of Control

Under the category of "too strange to be true, but it is...."

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Global Warming GIGO

SEARCH BLOG: GIGO

There is a small, grass-roots effort underway as discussed at Climate Science.

As I've read more about the way data has been gathered and used by those who are making wild claims about rapid global warming, it is becoming evident that a great deal of data in support of those claims is more than just suspect; it is unreliable for two reasons:

• Proxy data (information that implies approximate temperatures such as tree ring growth) is tacked on to instrument readings for multi-century trend construction. This proxy data is subject to considerable interpretation and cannot be simply "best-guess" adjusted and combined with actual readings.
• Actual readings are being distorted by the urban heat island effect (discussed last week) and poor quality control of the weather stations leading to false high readings (as discussed at Climate Science).

Kind of like measuring sub-atomic collisions with a wind sock.

If a particle physicist were to take the approach that the IPCC has with the data and information manipulation, he would be laughed out of the scientific community. The IPCC reports would be laughable... if they were not so politically dangerous.

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Economic Medicine

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

The Federal Reserve has been pretty quiet for awhile with regard to interest rates. Right now, there is no rational reason to believe that the Board would raise rates further.

• The economy is in a lull... maybe sliding slightly.
  
• The housing markets have tanked and home prices dropped drastically in some areas.
  
• There is no shortage of workers and, if that should happen, Mexico is prepared to fill the need.
• Oil, as a commodity, has not increased or changed much recently (although gas prices have increased due to restrictions on building new refineries).

So, all of the recent talk on Wall Street about the Federal Reserve raising rates is:

• Irrational because there is no economic driver for that
• Irrational because the Federal Reserve would be acting irrationally

Still, given the fragile state of affairs in this state... Michigan... any action to increase interest rates would signal economic disaster here. I guess Gov. Granholm could discuss that with Ben Bernanke.

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Importing Oblivion

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMICS



This morning was supposed to be golf, but with the temperature and brisk wind and spotty rain, posting an article here seems much more satisfying.

As gloomy as this day is, it doesn't compare with the more pervasive gloom settling over the State of Michigan. April statistics verify that there were fewer people employed in April, 2007 than in April 1997. Ten years of stagnation and decline.

Why? Many reasons. An auto industry that lost its focus (Jacques Nasser was busy buying junk yards instead of shortening the product renewal cycle). Unions that refused to accept the fact that their employers were not their adversaries, but that other workers in other states working for other companies were their competition. State government that refused to see that it could not continue to expand while the state itself was shriveling.

But is it because Michigan was uniquely inept or because Michigan was uniquely American? While other states decided that it was better to join the movement to lose manufacturing to other countries or import cheap [and illegal?] labor from countries south of us, Michigan held fast to the post-WWII approach that building American and buying American was not only good business, but good for the country. It appears that Michigan may have been somewhat mistaken.

It appears that wealth is now imported in the form of labor and parts and raw materials and finished goods. It appears that distribution and "servicing" is the key to wealth... for some.

As Paul C. Roberts, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration, says:

Economists are governed by the illusion that America’s post World War II prosperity is based on free trade. It is not. America’s post-war prosperity was based on the destruction of the economic capability of the rest of the world by World War II and communism/socialism. America was prosperous in its trade, because no one else could produce anything.

I hope that I'm wrong. I hope that Michigan is an anomaly. I hope that Roberts is wrong. I hope that the fall of the American dollar and subsequent rise in the cost of essentials that we are seeing is temporary. I hope that wealth destruction really doesn't happen.

But I'm not confident... given what is happening in Michigan.

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New U.S. Temperature Records - May 2007

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

For those of you waiting anxiously for the next set of record high temperatures in the U.S. to validate the claim that we will experience more record high temperatures due to global warming. Here is the latest from NOAA.

But a picture tells a thousand words....


Of course this doesn't prove anything... neither does the occasional record high temperature.

The fact is that there have been no groupings of record high temperatures of any significance in the U.S. this century.

We will have to keep holding our collective breath until the next dust bowl strikes (and to reduce CO2, I suppose).

Meanwhile, check out this site to see how some record temperatures are occurring.
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Floating Along

SEARCH BLOG: HEALTH

I kept trying to wipe away and rinse away the stuff in my eye yesterday, but when it wouldn't go away I realized that it wasn't outside of my eye... it was inside.

It turns out I am experiencing a "floater"... a dark curly filament... in my eye and it is quite disconcerting... out of the blue... apparently not caused by anything traumatic. When it turned dark, I noticed some "lights" in my peripheral vision which I thought were reflections in my glasses. Turns out they were probably caused by whatever caused the floater.

The Great Internet tells me that it might be a little detachment of the retina, which can be fixed. So, I will try to find a doctor that specializes in these sorts of things and get a verification and treatment, if possible.

Looking back, I guess it may have started before yesterday, but just wasn't so evident. I had some trouble focusing while playing golf last week and tried to ignore it. Probably should not have.

Like many men, I have this issue about admitting something might be wrong with my health. You know, have to be the strong, indestructible type. I guess as I am getting older, I'll have to recognize my body's limitations.

Damn!

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Real or Perceived Excessive Heat

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

We've had a couple of hot days so the talk is all about global warming again. Here are the details.

Yesterday, the month started a little warmer than usual:


The forecast looks like this:

If we take the high temperature from 6-1 which was 84 and the forecasted high temperatures for the next 5 days, we get an average high temperature of... 76.2 degrees.

Now you might argue that the average for the month might be misleading because the month gets warmer as we get closer to summer.

So let's look at the averages for the first 6 days:

[Source: The Weather Channel]
Note how all of the records have been in the last 10 years... not!

It looks like we are pretty close to average... a couple of degrees lower, maybe. But, once again, the local perception is that the temperatures are much higher than "normal."

Alarmism seems to be effective in changing perception.

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Global Temperature History

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

The other day, I noticed RealClimate had declared that the debate about the temperature history was over.

That sounded vaguely familiar, so I contacted Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr. of Colorado University and the Pielke Research Group which is a member of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRCES)and moderator of the blog Climate Science.

He asked me to pose my question, in Climate Science, of whether it was reasonable to presume that implied temperatures from various proxy data could be tacked on to actual recent readings to create a 2,000 year time series. There is a paper cited in his response that you can read if you wish.

His response is comment #3 in this post.

I think the last sentence of his comment makes his position regarding the RealClimate post RealClear.

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