Normal Weather or Global Warming

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER and GLOBAL WARMING

Regional climates vary significantly and the weather patterns affecting the regional climates also vary significantly. For example, there is nothing in the weather database to indicate that the Great Lakes basin is any warmer now than the first half of last century.

It is difficult for the average person to discern what is normal variation from what is change. Sometimes, it is difficult for newspapers to discern that as well... or perhaps it is convenient to not make a distinction... or perhaps it is convenient to simply ignore the facts.

To wit: the Detroit Free Press reported...

1. DEADLY CHAIN REACTION
August 27, 2007 •• 1177 words •• ID: dfp0000471169
Scientists who for decades have studied the delicate prey-predator balance between moose and wolves on Lake Superior's Isle Royale believe global warming - by giving an assist to blood-sucking bugs - ultimately could deal a deathblow to the national park's wolf population. Since 2002, the number of moose on the island has declined from 1,100 to 385, following a dramatic increase in winter ticks. The insects infest the moose, suck their blood and weaken them, making them....

I responded with this letter to them:

Your headline suggesting global warming may be to blame for changes in the the dynamics among moose, wolves, and ticks doesn't appear to be supported by the temperature history.

Since Isle Royale doesn't have a long record, I looked at Duluth, MN which is about 150 miles southwest. The monthly history of temperature clearly shows that the high record temperatures were not set recently. In fact, the most recent high temperature record was set in September, 1976. [source: The Weather Channel http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/wxclimatology/monthly/USMN0208]

While such recording may sell newspapers, it certainly doesn't provide readers with an accurate account of the weather for that particular location... or a reasonable explanation for the underlying cause of changes in animal populations.

Bruce Hall

Month

Avg. High

Avg. Low

Mean

Avg. Precip

Record High

Record Low

Jan

18°F

-1°F

8°F

1.12 in.

55°F (1942)

-52°F (1899)

Feb

25°F

5°F

15°F

0.83 in.

58°F (1895)

-39°F (1996)

Mar

34°F

16°F

25°F

1.69 in.

81°F (1946)

-29°F (1989)

Apr

49°F

29°F

39°F

2.09 in.

88°F (1952)

-5°F (1975)

May

63°F

40°F

52°F

2.95 in.

95°F (1939)

16°F (1907)

Jun

71°F

49°F

60°F

4.25 in.

97°F (1910)

27°F (1972)

Jul

76°F

55°F

65°F

4.20 in.

106°F (1936)

35°F (1988)

Aug

74°F

54°F

64°F

4.22 in.

97°F (1930)

32°F (1986)

Sep

65°F

45°F

55°F

4.13 in.

95°F (1976)

23°F (1974)

Oct

52°F

35°F

44°F

2.46 in.

86°F (1953)

6°F (1917)

Nov

35°F

21°F

28°F

2.12 in.

73°F (1903)

-29°F (1875)

Dec

22°F

6°F

14°F

0.94 in.

56°F (1939)

-35°F (1917)

Naturally, I never even received an acknowledgment of the letter.

I noticed my coffee seemed hotter than usual this morning. Must be global warming....

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An Iraqi Speaks Out

SEARCH BLOG: IRAQ

As promised several weeks ago, this is a guest post by an Iraqi-American woman who has family in Iraq.

Since the current Iraq situation is a complicated problem, it needs a complicated multi-avenue solutions. As complicated as this might be, it is as simple as this:

Just like a person who has many diseases been treated from all of them at once, Iraq has many complicated diseases. If you start treating one disease, the other will grow and get out of hand. You have to cure all diseases at once in order to get swift benefits.

Now lets get to the solutions without the blame game which has been going nowhere while our troops and innocent Iraqi civilians are paying unnecessary heavy prices.

The following is my scenario of the solution package. I lived half of my life in Baghdad and half of it in the USA. Melting my both perspectives I think is best to get to resolution.

1. SECURE IRAQ BORDERS, NOW:

Among all other obvious measures, this includes continuously flying over the borders to halt any penetration to the country

2. RECRUIT ALL THE IRAQI EX-MILITARY COMMANDERS:

I believe they are very loyal to their country than to a specific political figure. Let them call on their old military units to come back to duty to serve their country and not a specific leader. Iraqi soldiers believe in their military commanders, trust them and have a great respect for them. Those commanders and their units will be the only logical way to clean the streets of Baghdad and other Iraqi cities and towns from the different gang groups, insurgents and militias.

3. REFORM NEW GOVERNMENT:

If you want to clean the country from violence, you need to clean the government first. The new government should have well known figures who Iraqis trust.

4. ORGANIZE A ONE DAY CURFEW:

I remember during the Census Day in Iraq, recruited groups visited every single residential unit in the country in an effort to interview citizens to make sure that their ballots are filled out without improper information. I think if this can happen, then we can use the same format and recruit security groups all over Iraq. Then on one day curfew, they go door to door to make sure who is accounted for and who is not. This will include making sure that the occupants of each housing unit have the proper Property Title. All houses have to be returned to their owners. We can do a lot of things during that day. Of course, the government would have mailed each housing unit comprehensive forms to examine and fill out so they be ready on that day. This includes updated photographs and fingerprinting.

5. RELIGIOUS LEADERS SUMMIT:

To have all Iraqi religious leaders meet and put their differences aside in an effort to send a powerful and firm message to the Iraqis not to let their differences conquer them. Those leaders should also put pressure on the government to change the I.D. card to be issued without the listing of sectarian affiliations. The religious leaders also should facilitate the return of people to their houses after all the sectarian segregation.

6. START SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRAMS, NOW:

Part of solving the crisis, the Iraqi Society is in desperate need of social rehabilitation and economic solutions. Start employing Iraqis to build their country instead of getting foreign contractors to do that. No better way to build Iraq except with the hands of its own people. Not to mention that this is very therapeutical to the society. We cannot wait until the violence is over for such programs to start.

7. RESTORE THE INFRASTRUCTURE

I don't think I need to describe the horrible situation of the infrastructure. It needs rebuilding on high gear.

Electricity

Water

Sewage System

Roads & Bridges

8. LIKE ANY AMERICAN CITIES:

We have to help Iraqis start (for real) rebuilding the followings:

Hospitals: Remodel all hospitals and supply them with the state of the art medical equipments and supplies.

Give incentives to Iraqi professionals (doctors, professors, engineers, etc) to return back to their country to help in its rebuilding.

Schools: Remodel and secure schools on all levels

Department Stores: We have to start NOW supplying the entire country with major department stores just like Wall Marts, Costco, Home Depot, CVS. Iraqis are in desperate need for all necessary consumer goods and medicine to feel like they are been treated as human beings again.

9. MAINTAIN THE PRESENCE OF U.S. MILITARY TROOPS AND EXTRA HUMANITARIAN GROUPS IN ITS FULL CAPACITY:

This will be the only way the U.S. can contribute to having such diverse plan of action be enforced and get done in a short period of time. The Iraqi government and military cannot do this alone.

10. FIND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TO THE IRAQI REFUGEE CRISES.

There are many kinds of refugees. We are not talking about the Iraqis who call themselves refugees, yet they are living well outside their country. We are talking about the ones who are thriving to get food and basic needs on a daily basis.

I hope that my plan of action can be heard all over the world and that it can be implemented.

May Peace Be With All Of You.

An Iraqi-American Woman

[No new posts until Monday]
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Start Of The Fall

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER



Summer is ending in Michigan. Not officially until later this month, but Labor Day marked the start of the end.

This weekend the apple cider mills open up and people are looking toward the autumn pleasures. By early next week, summer weather is moving out and early autumn weather moving in.

Time to put away sweat bands and pull out the sweaters.

Positive Equals Negative and Vice Versa

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

The latest doublespeak coming out of Washington is from Sen. Charles Schumer who now insists that the U.S. military "surge" is not working because the reduction of violence is only coincidental and concomitant with the military action, not caused by it [and because he said it wasn't going to work and if it worked it wasn't because it was the right thing to do].

Apparently, the Iraqis in areas with increased U.S. military presence are helping to reduce the violence. That's bad because, as Sen. Schumer says: "And the fallacy of the President's new policy is just amazing. Are we placing our faith in the future of Iraq in the hands of some tribal leaders who at the moment dislike al Qaeda more than they dislike us? Make no mistake about it. They're no friends of Americans."

Fine, tribal leaders made a choice when they were given a choice. If the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then the tribal leaders have decided that the Americans are their friends.

Meanwhile, according to the BBC, in Germany "authorities are hunting for about 10 more suspects believed to have helped the three men held for allegedly plotting massive bomb attacks. The Islamist plotters were targeting US facilities in Germany, officials said. The 10 sought are "Germans, Turks and other nationalities," a top security official, August Hanning, told German ARD television on Thursday. Germany announced on Wednesday that it had arrested two Germans and a Turk suspected of planning huge bombings."

The arrests are only coincidental and concomitant with anti-terrorism efforts. The persons who were arrested only made themselves available for arrest because they had a change of heart after realizing that Islam was the religion of peace.

Meanwhile, President Bush and Chinese leader, Hu Jintao, held talks described as "friendly" by Mr. Bush.

The "friendly" talks are only coincidental and concomitant with Chinese efforts to influence U.S. presidential elections through illegal campaign financing [Clinton-Hsu], Chinese efforts to assist Iran to deliver atomic weapons by selling missile technology, and countless sales of unsafe products to the U.S. [the latest seems to be fuses that cause fires].

Sometimes, it seems that those who have an agenda will be willing to turn the world on its head while saying they are righting the ship.

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Golfing with God

SEARCH BLOG: GOLF

In the same way that other recreational golfers butcher the game of golf, I manage to be consistently inconsistent which gives me great frustration... so much so that I feel as if I need God as cart companion to have a decent round.

But as the saying goes, the Lord helps those who help themselves.

So last week, I went to the driving range and started analyzing the various parts of my golf swing.

The first thing I noticed was my setup was never the same. Sometimes the ball was too far forward [toward the target] and sometimes too far back [away from the target]. Sometimes I stood too close to the ball and sometimes I stood too far away.

The next thing I noticed was that the face of the club head [that part that hits the ball] was sometime pointing to the right of the target when I made contact [open] and sometimes pointing to the left of the target [closed]. I wanted the club face pointing at the target.

Then I noticed I held the club handle in different ways. Sometimes my hands fitting together tightly and sometimes there was a gap between them.

Then I noticed that sometimes I would hit the ground before the ball and other times I would barely hit the top of the ball.

It was obvious that I really needed God in my golf cart. But I worked on some things that started to make my hitting better and more consistent.

First, I picked up the club in my left hand in such a way that the club face was aligned facing the target... alignment.

Then I gripped the club in such a way that my right hand locked snugly against my left hand... lockdown.

Then I stood upright with my club held in front of me with my arms relaxed and straight so that when I moved downward and forward I was in the correct stance to launch the ball... launch position.

The last pre-swing point was to check my aim to be sure my body was parallel to the line of my swing... aim.

All that was left was to swing from this pre-set position and hit the ball... hit.

I discovered that while God may help those who help themselves... ALLAH definitely helps my golf game:

• Alignment ... of the club face
• Locking ... the hands together in a snug grip that keeps the arms in a good position
  
• Launch ... position just the right distance from the ball
• Aim ... check before swinging so that the ball starts in the right direction
• Hit ... the ball trusting that it will be struck well and go straight.

Today I played a round 7 strokes under my average. I missed some putts that could have made the round even better, but nothing seems to help putts... not even ALLAH.

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What's Good For The Goose Is Not Good For The Gander

SEARCH BLOG: EDUCATION

This photo on the front page of the Detroit Free Press caught my attention:



What caught my attention?

Well, suppose this had been a picture of a middle-aged or even 30-year old male teacher and the student had been female....

The teacher would not have remained a teacher very long.

I have been told by a few male teachers that they would never... ever... under any circumstances... touch a student... male or female... even to provide comfort or for any other reason... because they know they would be fired.

So what gives the Governor the right to do so?

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U.N. Climate Agreement Will Change The Way We Live

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

The UN has reached an agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions by 25 - 40% [versus 1990 levels] by 2020.

First, let's point out that the target is only 12 years from now. The image below is a stacked area chart which displays the cumulative levels of CO2 output.

Just so you understand... a 25-40% reduction from 1990 levels would require cutting emissions in half in 12 years... basically shutting down the world's economies.

To be fair, the UN only wants the industrialized economies to cut back that much, so the chart probably overstates the reduction. On the other hand, a large portion of China's contribution to CO2 emissions comes from underground coal fires [not included in the chart below]... which may match U.S. total output. So, it might be reasonable to put more of the onus on China.

[source]

So, with China and India gearing up industrial production and Europe and the U.S. balking from using more nuclear power, where do these savings come from.

Well, for one thing, transportation modes will have to change:

[source]

Air conditioning will be replaced by more natural living styles:

[source]

Heating will have to be replaced with insulation:

[source]

Electricity will have to be used only for essentials such as communication:

[source]

Of course, government officials will have to conserve, too... maybe more modest government facilities?

[source]

Wait, forget that last one... it will never happen. Just the rest of us will have to change.

Just so you are clear on this... the organization that proposed what has become a non-binding target is the same organization that disregarded vast amounts of scientific evidence that CO2 is not a critical element in climate change [note that "global warming" is being replaced by the more nebulous term as it becomes harder to defend the IPCC original positions].

The U.N. has shown repeatedly that it is the safehouse of extremists of all manner... and that little of value has ever come from it.

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Hillary Funding Scandal Follow-up

SEARCH BLOG: CLINTON

No comment needed from me about this.

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Brave Palestinian Militants Defend Themselves

SEARCH BLOG: ISLAM

Brave Palestinian "militants" fought a heated battle against a fierce and determined Israeli force led by 15 babies at a day care center in Sderot. [via Jihad Watch]

Although neither side suffered casualties, the militants celebrated the fact that at least one of the six rockets they fired at the infidel baby force landed in the school yard... showing that the Palestinians are not about to be intimidated by anyone and have the means to fight back.

The brave Palestinians, shouting "Allah Akbar," later said that they would stand just as resolutely even if the Israelis send 30 babies against them.

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Read To Them

SEARCH BLOG: EDUCATION and DYSFUNCTIONAL

I had a conversation with my youngest son's girlfriend. She just received her bachelor's degree and has been working in a pre-school with children as young as two.

I asked what they did with two-year olds and she said they had all sorts of activities including geography lessons. That greatly surprised me. But she assured me that they actually learned to identify places on maps.

Sending your child to a pre-school is becoming fairly common. Yet, many parents simply can't afford that luxury.

My wife quit work after our first son was born; we adjusted our spending patterns. We also focused very early on spending time in a way that would benefit our son for the rest of his life; we read to him.

Cost is never an issue when educating a child. We bought Dr. Seuss books for a few dollars each... one every couple of weeks... and a couple of Muppet puppets [which dates us]. Then, the "Muppets would read" the Dr. Seuss books to our son.

By the time he was 3-years old, he was "reading" along with the puppets. I'm not sure when his memorization turned into actual reading, but it was very early on. He never seemed to get tired of the ritual of reading with the puppets after dinner. He would select a book, pick up the puppets and bring them to me, and we would listen together as the Muppets read.

I could have read my newspaper, or watched TV, or just relaxed on my own. But this was my opportunity to have my son spend time with me and I knew it was just as important for me as it was for him.

I replicated this ritual with my other two sons. Often the next oldest would join in and read to the younger one using the Muppet puppets in the same way I did. They were creating a tradition of sharing and learning together that they still have today... as much as is possible for grown men to have. The oldest has move out of state, but the two younger sons have their own thriving business together. They are still sharing and learning.

We didn't spend a fortune to create a love of reading and learning with our sons. We spent our time. That "investment" has returned the greatest rewards.

I have written about dysfunctional subcultures in which education simply doesn't matter.

Unlike, many who wish to blame our school systems for the failure of children within these subcultures, I hold the schools blameless. There is only one reason for a child's failure to become educated and prepared for life: his parents.

Unfortunately, the children become dysfunctional adults who create children who become dysfunctional adults.

If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you always got.

Some children will escape the cycle. They will forge a bond with a teacher or some adult who will care and nurture. But too many will simply replicate.

Stupidity has its own rewards.

It's been said many times by many people: "read to your children."

The only reason for not doing so is terminal stupidity.

School is in session.

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This Option Not Available

SEARCH BLOG: SPORTS

Nifong - One Day Is Enough?

SEARCH BLOG: LAW

From Newsday:

When the judge read the sentence Friday evening, Mary Ellen Finnerty of Garden City broke down and cried -- Mike Nifong, the disbarred Durham County, N.C., district attorney who tried to put her son in jail on false rape accusations, was going to jail himself.

Nifong was sentenced to one day behind bars for criminal contempt of court in connection with his attempted prosecution last year of Finnerty's son Collin and two other Duke University lacrosse players.

"It does give us closure," said Collin Finnerty's father, Kevin, who attended the hearing in Raleigh with his wife. "I think the three boys have their reputations back."

...

The jail sentence, however short, represents yet another blow to the tarnished reputation of Nifong, who was also stripped of his law license by the state bar in June.

Thomas Metzloff, a professor at the Duke University School of Law who followed the Nifong case closely, called the sentence "unprecedented."

"This just doesn't happen," he said. "This was a very important moment because it showed that the court system really cared about what happened in this case."

Let's see, malicious prosecution, prosecutorial misconduct, withholding evidence, denial of rights... that's worth about a day in the pokey.

How about 6 hours for embezzlement? And 3 hours for perjury? And 15 seconds for wife abuse?

Will he get 12 hours off for good behavior? Another 3 hours off if he finishes all of his dinner?

Sounds like North Carolina is the place to be... if you want to avoid paying the price for your actions.

Nifong took away a year of life from 3 young men. How about a 3-year sentence?

The message it sends to prosecutors is that no matter how nefarious their conduct, they are guaranteed a slap on the pinky... at worst.

Let's hope that civil court provides more justice than North Carolina criminal court.

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15th Warmest July

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING


From NOAA

National Overview:

July Temperature Highlights

• For the contiguous United States, July 2007 was the 15th warmest July since records began in 1895. The monthly mean temperature was 1.4°F (0.8°C) above the 20th century average of 74.3°F (23.5°C).
  
  
• However, the persistent atmospheric pattern that brought cooler than average temperatures to the East contributed to record and near-record warmth in the West. The warmest July since statewide records began in 1895 occurred in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. Nevada had its second warmest July and Arizona and Utah their third warmest Julys on record. Alaska was 1.2°F (0.7°C) warmer than the 1971—2000 mean in July.
  
  
• There were 11 days of triple digit temperatures in Missoula, Montana in July, almost double the previous record of 6 days for the month. In Boise, Idaho it was the hottest month ever, and the average high temperature for the month was a remarkable 98.6°F (37°C), more than 9°F (5°C) above the monthly average.
  
  
• The cooler-than-average July temperatures in the heavily populated eastern U.S. helped push down residential energy needs for the nation as a whole. Using the Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI - an index developed at NOAA to relate energy usage to climate), the nation's residential energy demand was approximately 4 percent lower than what would have occurred under average climate conditions for the month.

Is NOAA now marketing global warming? 15th warmest? Is that supposed to be significant? Now look at the map below to see how it affected the population of the U.S.

Compare that with a relief map of the U.S. and it looks as if all of those weather stations on mountains got hot. Heat really does rise!

[source: University of Texas Library]

So, based on NOAA's calculations, the U.S. was slightly warmer than on average. But when were the 14 warmest Julys? I going to guess that several will be in the 1930s?

Were there any monthly state record high temperatures set [not some shaky average calculation]? No data published yet, but I'm also guessing that the answer is "no."

When you go back over the first six months of the year and then include July, you'll see that 2007 has been remarkably unremarkable. And, as you can see, no scars from runaway, positive-feedback, global warming around here.

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Clinton Campaign Fund Scandal

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Some people have this visceral dislike for the family-Clinton.

They view their brand of politics as somehow sleazy or unethical if not illegal... smiling-while-they-stab-you-in-the-back kind of politics... beholden-to-unsavory-characters politics... I-can-be-bought kind of politics.

Supporters will dismiss that as sour grapes or character assassination. But, where there's smoke....

Then...

and recently...

and now....

Fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, shame on me; fool me three times, I must be a m*r*n....

Of course, it's only a scandal if you get caught. Otherwise, it is business-as-usual. Try Googling "political funding scandals" and you will see what I mean.

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European Backlash - Step 7

SEARCH BLOG: EUROPE and ISLAM

From Yahoo News:

ANKARA, Turkey - A devout Muslim with a background in political Islam won the Turkish presidency on Tuesday, in a major triumph for the Islamic-rooted government after months of confrontation with the secular establishment.

Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul received a majority of 339 votes in a parliamentary ballot and took the oath of office, pledging impartiality and loyalty to Turkey's historic separation of religion and politics. Commanders from the fiercely secular military were conspicuously absent — a decision many saw as a symbolic protest against the decision to elect a president to a post traditionally held by a secular figure.

...

As foreign minister, Gul — who speaks English and Arabic — has cultivated an image as a moderate politician.

In a recent meeting with foreign journalists, Gul said he would make use of his experiences as foreign minister to boost Turkey's European Union bid and make the Turkish presidency more active on the international scene.

"Turkey will be more active; Turkey will be contributing more to world issues," he said.

The EU said the vote "represents a considerable achievement for Turkey and the Turkish people,"

In a statement, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said he hoped the government "will be able to resume work ... to give fresh, immediate and positive impetus" to EU entry talks.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that despite what "the EU" [as stated above] says, the election of an Islamist to the presidency of Turkey is sure to set off alarms around Europe's population, if not governments, for two obvious reasons:

1. Despite what Mr. Gul says, Europeans are growing increasingly antagonistic toward Islam and Islamists, in particular.
2. There is the latent possibility of instability in Turkey if the military, which is "devoutly" secular in its orientation, decides that Mr. Gul's government is a threat to the secular tradition.

I would be greatly surprised if this development enhances Turkey's opportunity to join the EU.

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The Reason Global Warming Timing Has Been Delayed?

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

By way of Dr. John Ray, Blue Crab Boulevard reports:

Kind of interesting. France has had the third worst summer in recorded history, only 1954 and 1977 were more miserable. Most of the nation has been much wetter and considerably cooler than historical averages.

PARIS (AFP) - It's official: France's rainy, grey and generally cold summer has been the worst for the past 30 years, the weather service said Friday, but tourist arrivals were the highest in five years.

July and August were wet across two-thirds of the country while the Mediterranean region was too dry, said Frederic Nathan, meteorologist at Meteo France.

"Yes we can say that it was a rotten summer," said Nathan. But the summers of 1954 and 1977 were worse, he added……

……Rainfall in northwestern France reached record levels, with cities like Le Havre registering 21 days of rain in July, beating the previous record of 16 in 1980.

In the northern city of Caen in Normandy, the weather service registered 592 hours of sunshine from May 1st to August 21, well below the average of 809 hours.

Temperatures on the Atlantic coast have been on average two or three degrees Celsius below seasonal averages, said Jean-Marc Le Gallic from Meteo France.

Britain has also had a miserably wet and cold summer. Interesting, no?

I guess that's why the latest prediction is for global warming to actually start after 2009.

As Annie sings:

The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There'll be sun!

Just thinkin' about
Tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
'Til there's none!

When I'm stuck a day
That's gray,
And lonely,
I just stick out my chin
And Grin,
And Say,
Oh!

The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A day
A way!

And then we'll all die of heat stroke....

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0.15 Deg C Does Not “Matter”

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Steve McIntyre, at Climate Audit, does an analysis of the recorded U.S. average temperature change from 1920 to present which amounts to 0.21° C. He then uses the words of Drs. Schmidt and Hansen of NASA that the recent downward adjustments of 0.15° C to the temperature records does not matter to make the point that the minuscule change over 80+ years is irrelevant.

I'd like to point out that the starting point is relevant. If you use 1880, a relatively cold period in the U.S., then you go from a low point in the record's oscillation to a high point. I suggest that what is shown from the record is, at best, a flat trend with a high point in the 1930s and another high point in the late 20th century. Whatever warming that may have occurred is primarily in the moderation of cold temperatures from the coldest periods of the weather history... or faulty siting of weather stations, a subject that has been discussed in detail at Anthony Watts' site, that give the illusion of a moderation of cold temperatures.

It's an old trick of marketers and sales reps to pick a starting point that makes whatever they are presently doing look as different [positive] as possible. It's not necessarily good science, however.

Nevertheless, Steve McIntyre's point is a very good one.

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Good Things End

Climate Science Is Retiring - Thank You To Everyone For Your Participation!

Filed under: Uncategorized — Roger Pielke Sr. @ 7:00 am

I want to thank everyone who has contributed to the diverse subjects on Climate Science! The site has been active since July 2005. However, the maintenance and preparation for the weblog requires quite a bit of time, and I have decided to move onto other activities. I have also extensively presented my perspective on climate science. The weblog will remain available as an archive on our research website.

After the remaining weblogs have posted (on September 2), the last weblog will identify where the archive can be found. Comments, of course, will not be accepted after that time, but the entire history of the weblog will be available for those who are interested.

Markets Go Up On Perception of Improvement

SEARCH BLOG: DJIA and HOUSING

CNN reports that good news propelled the DJIA up 143 points on Friday.

• New home sales were up
• Durable goods orders were up

... except for Michigan, of course.

Recently I wrote that the Fed was unlikely to take quick action on the prime rate because the drop in the DJIA had to be looked at from a longer perspective. The Fed took actions to prop up financial institutions, but still feels the economy is going well enough... and inflation is still enough of a concern... to be cautious about lowering rates.

I'm not sure what might be causing the new home sales to be increasing elsewhere, especially in light of the increasing foreclosure rates. Perhaps it is the automobile-like incentives being heaped on new homes to try to move them. Big discounts, options thrown in for nothing, "we'll buy your old house from you, if you buy a new one from us."

I'm glad to see the markets holding ground since I have significant investments. But I'm not yet convinced that the good news will hold sway. We've seen those seasonally adjusted annual rates for housing revised downward for May after they were published.

Besides, one should also point out that the July 2007 rate was 10% below July 2006. That might be reason to mute the cheering a little.

Of course, it might just be a matter of perception rather than perspective.

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