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Thursday, July 17, 2008

Big Car Blues

SEARCH BLOG: AUTOMOBILES

CNN ran a story about the new Ford Flex
:

As I drove a 2009 Flex on a family trip, one comment I heard over and over was "That thing must suck gas like crazy!"

Unfortunately, the Flex's design emphasizes, and even exaggerates, its size. When plans for the Flex were first being laid down, that might have seemed like a good idea. But these days, it might just scare customers away from what is, really, an excellent alternative to the typical minivan. It's a big box designed to carry a lot of people and stuff and it more than looks the part

While the Flex looks enormous in person it's really no longer than the old Freestar minivan it essentially replaces. Its fuel economy, too, is about the same as minivans like the Honda Odyssey and Chrysler Town & Country.

For those looking at SUVs, someone who buys a Flex instead of a full-sized SUV like the Ford Expedition, for instance, could save almost $1,200 a year in gasoline while having even more room for back-seat passengers to stretch out in. They also get to enjoy a much cooler-looking box-on-wheels.

On our recent trip to Wisconsin in a 2008 Ford Taurus, I measured our gas consumption on a single tankful of gasoline beginning with a fill in Madison, a leg to Milwaukee, another jog to Delavan, and then through Chicago construction on I-294 to I-94 around Gary to our home near Detroit.


This car comfortably transported my wife and me and my 6'3" 270 lb. son [even in the back seat with the front seat back] and his girl friend and all of our bags.
Our measured single tank usage was 17.7 gallons for 490 miles... just under the 28 mpg advertised as the highway mpg.
I suspect this will improve somewhat as the engine gets a few more miles.

So, my questions are:
  1. Do you really want to be crammed into a Mini Cooper-sized vehicle with compromised safety for a few extra mpg?
  2. Or do you want to spend thousands of dollars more upfront for an expensive hybrid powertrain... and the prospect of thousands more to replace a battery pack?
I'm still waiting for that nice turbo-diesel that gets about 40 mpg highway, but the government is making that difficult by:
  1. Restricting oil drilling and subsequent supply
  2. Restricting refinery expansions and new refineries capable of actually producing the government-mandated new diesel formulation
  3. Refusing to accept European diesel engines as they are
So, while I will make do with a pretty good gasoline powertrain in a nice big car, we'll all suffer a little economically because the cost of transporting food, clothing, medicine, equipment, raw materials, etc. has gone up dramatically due to the shortage of diesel fuel.
Why doesn't the government just mandate some hybrid tractor-trailers? Just use 1/4 of the trailer for the battery pack.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

SEARCH BLOG: OIL

Here's a thought: why should the government have to purchase any oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when there are billions of barrels in land controlled by the Federal government?

While President Bush is correct about opening up more areas for drilling leases, there should be an added provision that each lease will provide a guaranteed amount of oil ... at no charge ... to the SPR or the lease terminates within 2 years of failure to provide.

It's a win-win-win. The government get's it's rainy day supply, the oil companies get more oil for sale, and consumers get a larger supply of oil keeping prices down. This is done without going out on the world market for the SPR needs and, consequently, not inflating the demand on the world market.

If this results in excess oil in the SPR, the government could sell the excess at market prices.
I'm sure someone has an objection. Feel free to have your say.

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Tuesday, July 15, 2008

June Temperatures

SEARCH BLOG: NOAA and CLIMATE

NOAA's temperature map for June shows cooler-about normal-warmer weather for the U.S.
The northwest continued cool, the central and midwest were about normal and the south and east warmer than normal. NOAA "Statewide Temperature Ranks show a similar pattern.

All-in-all, another almost-normal month for the U.S. when averaged... just slightly above normal.

For the first two weeks of July here in southeastern Michigan, we are running more than 3° below normal... but we expect a brief warming trend this week before it goes back below normal.

My prediction is this year in Michigan will be below average overall ... at least around here. This may be part of a return to cooler weather trends caused by changes in the weather patterns which may be affected by changes in the Pacific Ocean.
If so, we can expect cooler, wetter summers leading to shorter growing seasons and more crop wash-outs in the farm belt as cold Canadian air mixes with warm Gulf air... over and over and over.

[source]

Look for price increase in ethanol and Tostitos.
Of course, one benefit will be that we don't have to water the lawn anymore. Haven't done that once this year.
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Monday, July 14, 2008

Budweiser ... Horse Trading

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

We're back from a weekend in Wisconsin, home of old beer companies like Schlitz, Blatz, and Pabst. Some of you may not have heard of these once-popular brands. Over the years they were bought out or went out of business. These were not small breweries. Their giant grain silos and breweries dotted the Milwaukee landscape. But they couldn't compete with giant national brands such as Anheuser-Busch.

Now we see the next step in these American brands. Everyone has seen commercials featuring these:

[source]

These Clydesdales are about to be retired and replace by these:

[source]

... Belgian draft horses.

Nice, but not quite the same. Still, most of us will never notice the difference.

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Saturday, July 12, 2008

Future Chant: We're Number Two!

SEARCH BLOG: CHINA

From Yahoo! News:

China's Economy Could Surpass the U.S. by 2035

As if the U.S. economic slump, the housing crisis, surging oil and food prices, and a general sense that things are not going all that well weren't enough, a new study forecasts that China will become the "pre-eminent world commercial influence" by 2035, when it surpasses the U.S. economy. The study released today is by Albert Keidel, who specializes in China economic issues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It is clear that China's economic juggernaut will have far-reaching implications for economic, diplomatic, and military matters in coming years--the subject of Keidel's study titled "China's Economic Rise--Fact and Fiction."
Last year, I wrote this post in response to certain economists who stated that there was no reason for us to be concerned about China selling us goods and labor at ridiculously low prices... after all, they are simply subsidizing us.
And the big, bad wolf was simply blowing leaves off the pigs' properties.
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Friday, July 11, 2008

Travel Time

SEARCH BLOG: FAMILY

Weddings are great fun and an important tradition. They formalize what ever other bonds unite a couple.

This weekend we are traveling to celebrate the marriage of our niece to a fine young man from Spain. Actually, they were married last year in a small ceremony, but this is the opportunity for both families to get together along with many friends who could not be there and celebrate.

We'll also take the opportunity to visit some grade school and high school friends. This summer marks the 60th year I've known one of them.

The bonds of family and friends are what gives so much value to life. We can point to our work and accomplishments, but personal bonds are what make the difference between a satisfying and a happy life.

Congratulations Silva and Felipe!

So good to see you again Mary and Steven, Sandi and Richard, Sue and Keith, and Wil.

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Thursday, July 10, 2008

Red Light, Green Light, Hope To See...

SEARCH BLOG: TRAFFIC and WASTING GASOLINE

Declaring independence from onerous traffic... you can do the same.

[click to enlarge]

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Your Child's Second Language

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS and ECONOMY

Sen. Obama has yet another brilliant comment, to wit: your children should learn Spanish.

The first question is why? Sen. Obama has done pretty well without that knowledge.

  • Is it because he recognizes that there are millions of illegals in this country who don't speak English... primarily from Mexico? What would he have your children say to them?
  • Is it because our governments are putting up a lot of signs in Spanish and your children might be curious what they say?
  • Is it because there are so many people working in retail stores who have a difficult time with English and your children might want to ask them where the Brittany Spears DVDs are?
When you look at the economics of a second language, it might make more sense for parents to help their children learn this second language.
More on that Sunday.
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Getting Pinned Economically

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

Hold those shoulders to the mat for a three-count and you've pinned your opponent. Simple as 1-2-3.

It looks as if our economy is about to get "pinned."

  1. The housing market is in shambles. The number of foreclosures is continuing to grow. Recovery... maybe, maybe 2009... in some areas.
  2. Cost of energy causing a significant slowdown in consumer spending and sending distribution costs through the roof for business.
  3. The Fed is using the "I" word
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It makes "eminent sense" to raise interest rates as risks to the U.S. economy recede amid high inflation and the central bank should not wait too long, a top Federal Reserve policy-maker said on Tuesday.

"Just as easing policy aggressively in response to emerging downside risks made sense, withdrawing some of that stimulus as those risks diminish makes eminent sense as well," said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Virginia.

Lacker, who will be a voter on the U.S. central bank's interest-rate-setting committee in 2009, said growth would be tepid this year and only pick up gradually next year.

Mr. Lacker is correct that raising interest rates to counter inflation caused by rampant spending and unbridled demand is a sound policy. The problem is that interest rates were lowered to avoid an economic crisis cause by the previous cycle of rapidly declining rates followed by rapidly increasing rates... along with a total lack of a rational energy plan... and right now the threat of inflation is not a result of rampant spending and unbridled demand... just the opposite situation has developed.
So, is Mr. Lacker's plan to fight an artificially induced inflationary pressure with econocide? Having contributed mightily to the current housing problems and weak dollar by a knee-jerk interest rate management approach, it is not unreasonable to think that the Fed may add more injury with another knee-jerk reaction to a perceived economic threat.

Remember, the Fed's actions may affect all of us, but it is their primary goal to protect the banking system.
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Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Precautionary Medicine

SEARCH BLOG: MEDICINE

I found the idea of giving children statin drugs more than a little disturbing.

It's hard to tell whether such ideas are the result of creative marketing departments or well-intentioned [but missing-the-point] experts. There is no doubt, looking at any group of children, that many are overweight. But presuming that the cure for present and future ills is a lifetime of a powerful medicine is a bit extreme.

And any parent who goes along with such an idea has totally abdicated parental responsibility. How about smaller portions of food and more exercise?
Last year, I started taking a statin drug for slightly elevated levels of cholesterol. There can be certain side effects such as muscle [including heart] weakness and chronic coughing.
Additionally, statin drugs were originally approved on the basis that they would include coenzyme Q10 [commonly called CoQ10] which alleviated some of the muscular weakness symptoms. Unfortunately, after approval, the formulations conveniently dropped this expensive compound.
My wife has added CoQ10 supplements to my diet as a precautionary medicine to take with my precautionary medicine. I doubt that most children would receive that extra bit of precaution from ill-informed parents.
Now I'm going to see my doctor about this chronic cough that started a few months after beginning to take statin drugs.
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Monday, July 07, 2008

Airports

SEARCH BLOG: TRAVEL

Traveling by air is difficult enough, but it seems the rules change everyday.

Today I took my 91-year old mother to Bishop International airport in Flint, Michigan. It's usually a great alternative to the mess of the large Detroit Metro airport which is always under construction.

We pulled into the short-term lot and walked across the street into the ticketing area, got her a wheelchair [because she can't walk very far or stand for too long anymore], and got her baggage checked and her boarding pass. I was told I could have a security pass to accompany her to the gate which I thought was a good idea.

When we got to the metal detectors, I helped her off with her shoes and she moved slowly to the other side of the detector and down the conveyor line to where her personal items were coming out the scanner.

Then the security guard tells me to move into the special screening area. 10 minutes later after hand scanning and pat downs and standing barefooted without a belt, I was able to re-join my mother and assist her... since no one else was bothering to do so.
Apparently, you are a suspect if you are accompanying your elderly mother in a wheelchair... even if you don't set off any alarms.

When my mother's plane arrived, the passengers on board exited. A mother and her child seemed to want to stay ... maybe to continue the flight. But it became apparent that she was now victim of a "new rule"... that much I heard. She had to go back through the whole boarding pass and security screening process. That seemed a bit strange. I'm guessing that she either left her connecting flight boarding pass on the plane and was not allowed to go back to get it or she didn't get the connecting flight boarding pass in the first place. Either way, she had to rush back to the ticketing line and go through the inconvenient, customer-unfriendly process.
Normally, you can get that done right at the gate for connecting flights. Maybe small airports aren't any more convenient than large ones.
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It's Just Uranium... Nothing To See Here

SEARCH BLOG: IRAQ

Without so much as a whimper of protest from Nancy and Harry that it had nothing to do with a weapons program...

BAGHDAD, July 7 (Reuters) - Iraq's government has removed 550 tonnes of natural uranium left over from Saddam Hussein's era and sold it to a Canadian company, government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said.

The uranium, called yellowcake, had been stored in a compound at Tuwaitha, south of Baghdad, which was once the centre of Saddam's nuclear weapons programme.

Yellowcake... isn't that the stuff that can be refined into weapons grade uranium?

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Sunday, July 06, 2008

The Energy Fix?

SEARCH BLOG: ENERGY

From the Detroit Free Press [click on image to enlarge]:

As you go through these, note that the first item is a roundabout way of either keeping the present reduced tax rates or lowering them. However, if the present income tax rates are raised, neither will have any discernible effect.

In the second item, Obama's position is consistent with other Democrat positions that present efforts that yield future results are not worth the effort. This includes a cure for HIV, improving water management, improving education, and political reform... among others. It is also consistent with the Democrat energy position ten years ago.

Both candidates want aggressive action against illegal speculation as part of their third position. What isn't clear is what is illegal and how much present commodity trading is illegal. I suspect this is a red herring.

The candidates differ on the fourth item. Obama likes the idea of limiting profits... and eliminating resulting jobs, new exploration for oil, and growth in retirement funds investing in oil companies.

The fifth item is a fluff-job. Both candidates can sound serious about something that drivers are already taking control of themselves. A large portion of drivers have reduced their speed to 65 and below on freeways around Detroit... and I suspect elsewhere. Governments aren't needed to make people act in their best economic interest.

The sixth item is all about the whipping boy... the auto industry. This is another example of politicians wanting to appear to be helping when, in fact, they are causing more problems. More ethanol, more hybrids, less oil... and more smog and lower fuel economy, battery shortages, and lack of diesel fuel as the associated results.

The seventh item is a stew-pot of government interferrence proposals. It doesn't address the central issue of government obstruction. And what's this about nuclear safety, Obama? As a University of Michigan study shows, the fears about nuclear safety are vastly overstated, while the benefits from nuclear power are grossly unrecognized, for example:

The environmental benefits of nuclear energy can he seen clearly in France. In the 1980s, because of concerns over imported oil, France more than tripled its nuclear energy production. During that same period, total pollution from the French electric power system dropped by 80-90 percent.
It's time that the candidates focus on issues for which they are responsible and of which they can correct... like campaign financing and special interest.

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Saturday, July 05, 2008

Carbon Footprint Pledge

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS and CO2

With all of the talk about gasoline prices and renewable energy and CO2 polluting the earth, my wife and I have decided to take this Carbon Footprint pledge:

We will maintain our CO2 output and energy usage below Al Gore's 2007 levels.
Okay, that's not fair. Mr. Gore has a big house because he has to entertain a lot of people who are concerned about global warming and carbon footprints. So, I'll amend that pledge:
We will maintain our CO2 output and energy usage at 50% below Al Gore's present levels.
Sure, but I'm not taking into account the fact the Mr. Gore has to travel a lot to receive all of his environmental awards and preach to gospel of global warming. Fine, I'll amend that pledge:
We will maintain our CO2 output and energy usage at 25% of Al Gore's most recent levels. Satisfied?
Great, that means I can increase my present consumption and footprint by 2 or 3 times.
Maybe it's time to buy that Hummer. Great prices right now.
Don't you love it when our elitist, leftist politicians tell us that coal and oil make us sick or are poisoning the world... and then use more than 99.9% of the rest of the world?

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Friday, July 04, 2008

Independence Day

SEARCH BLOG: HOLIDAYS and GOVERNMENT

Reprise of last year's post.

Caution: This document contains politically incorrect material and may be subject to neglect and condemnation by members of the ruling elite.

IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America

When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected, whereby the Legislative Powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary Powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation, and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & Perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. — And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

— John Hancock

New Hampshire:
Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton

Massachusetts:
John Hancock, Samuel Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry

Rhode Island:
Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery

Connecticut:
Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott

New York:
William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris

New Jersey:
Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark

Pennsylvania:
Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross

Delaware:
Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean

Maryland:
Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton

Virginia:
George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton

North Carolina:
William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn

South Carolina:
Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton

Georgia:
Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton


[Source]

Thursday, July 03, 2008

Big City Corruption

SEARCH BLOG: DETROIT and KWAME KILPATRICK

For years it has been apparent that Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick had less than stellar character. He is persuasive, however. He can sweet-talk his way into getting his way with certain members of the City Council.
Apparently, Kilpatrick isn't the only one capable of sweet-talking his way to the hearts of the City Council [from the Detroit Free Press]:

FBI targets 4 on council
Several people caught on tape accepting cash

Recently, I asked the question: Is Detroit Dying? Apparently government officials are going to make sure they get theirs before it happens. These are "leaders" who are elected and re-elected by the residents of Detroit.
I guess the prevailing attitude must be, "They might be crooks, but they're our crooks."
Also, the in-crisis Detroit Public Schools system is attempting to get back $46 million in "risk-management" fees that were paid out under questionable circumstances.

In an unrelated governmental issue, a 57-year old woman who has adopted 12 foster children and provided them with excellent care had a young, blind girl taken away by the Michigan Department of Human Services because one of her sons had a dog [since gotten rid of] that had some tickets [since paid] for running without a leash.
She appealed to the Michigan Supreme Court's Foster Care Review Board. The board reviewed the case May 23 and said it "strongly believes" it would be in Sparkles' best interest to remain with Stewart.
Nevertheless, the DHS rejected that recommendation.
Isn't it wonderful how government protects us all from everything... except government?
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Wednesday, July 02, 2008

June Weather In Michigan

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

June weather in this area was about as "normal" as it gets.
The February through June weather is still a bit below normal... and it certainly has been wet as well. Everything is green.

Predictions of Detroit weather becoming just like Memphis are a bit premature.

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Tuesday, July 01, 2008

You Say Tomato and I Say...

SEARCH BLOG: CULTURE

I'm going to presume that this post is just plain wrong. No culture could be as offensive as the one portrayed as being offended by so many mundane and harmless things... could it?

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Is The Sky Falling?

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMICS

I got a call from Bill last Saturday. He was somewhat agitated and wanted to know if I had seen what happened on Wall Street. I had to admit that I hadn't as I was driving down a narrow strip of land between the ocean and river in Daytona Beach. Bill advised me to stay on the beach and not ruin my day.

My post for Sunday had already been written several days earlier and scheduled for publishing before Bill called. I know he has been following the market for quite awhile, so last week should have been no surprise. The market had been speaking for 9 months.

The market doesn't take political positions. The market doesn't pay attention to false optimism or false alarm. The market simply acknowledges what is and what millions of people are saying with their money... and have been saying for awhile.
This is an election year so the party of the presidency [Republicans] downplay economic problems while the party seeking the presidency [Democrats] emphasize economic problems. After all, it is the fault of the President for all economic problems and it is the credit of the Congress for identifying those problems and recommending obvious solutions [such as raising taxes].

My advise to Bill is listen to his own brain rather than what the headlines say. The market is down. It's been down before. It may decline more. Excesses will be purged. Problems will be solved. False problems will be exposed. The economy will strengthen. The market will take the first hint of improvement and start rising again... when the time is right. We've been through this before.

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Monday, June 30, 2008

Traveling With Children

SEARCH BLOG: FAMILY

Just arrived back in the Detroit area. Four of us traveled on AirTran and decided to upgrade to their "first class" or whatever the seats are that actually fit. Then we discovered that a young mother and her slightly less than two year old were in the row in front of us. No big deal; we had three boys of our own and traveled a lot with them.

The little girl smiled and laughed and was in a pleasant mood. Then the cacophony began. Her mother had a DVD player with some Muppets entertainment. Fine, put on the headphones. What, no head phones? What, no way to turn the volume down? The Muppets are screeching; the little girl is screeching; the mother is screeching loudest of all. Two hours of screeching from Orlando!

Thank God for earplugs.
I actually felt sorry for the little girl.
We used to read quietly to our sons when we traveled. They interacted with books and with us, not a screen. They got to turn the pages and point to the characters in the books and say their names. They didn't screech; the books didn't screech; we didn't screech... and the rest of the passengers enjoyed their flight.
DVDs are certainly a change. In this case, I'm not sure it is a change for the better.

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Can"t Find It?

Use the SEARCH BLOG feature at the upper left. For example, try "Global Warming".

You can also use the "LABELS" below or at the end of each post to find related posts.

Blog Archive

Cost of Gasoline - Enter Your Zipcode or Click on Map

CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)