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Saturday, March 07, 2009

Disappearing Arctic Ocean Ice Found Elsewhere

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE

That NASA satellite wasn't wrong. Those 500,000 sq.km. of ice that disappear really did leave the Arctic Ocean. However, the ice was found in a slightly colder setting.

Read about it here.

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Are Humans Designed For Global Warming?

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Most of the charged rhetoric about alleged global warming is that we are faced with a future of unbearable heat and boggy continents... a world of "alligator alley." Of course, rational scientists and observers point out that is simply fantasy. There are far too many reasons that won't happen... at least during the next several million years... and certainly not because we burned coal for a few centuries.

But what about human health? Imagine mosquitoes as far north as... oh... the Arctic Circle! You mean like those that caused the hundreds of thousands of deaths by malaria... in Siberia a century ago... before AGW? Or is it that our bodies are not designed for hot weather... even though the bulk of mankind's population lives in tropical or semi-tropical areas?

Have you ever wondered why "normal" is 98.6°F? That's a lot warmer than the 50°F in northern Ohio. Ever wondered why reptiles have to go dormant in cool weather? The thing is that biology loves warmth... almost hot. Sure, some creatures have been forced to adapt to colder surroundings, but the operative word is forced. Most life, most species, the greatest diversity [don't you love that word?] lives where it is hot! Life loves warmth.

So when the average temperature is 15°F like it was in southern Michigan this January, our bodies react badly. We try to hibernate even though we don't have the biological mechanism to do so. We don't go outside and don't get sufficient vitamin D and our immune systems suffer and we experience epidemics of disease and cold-related deaths.

Sure, there are parts of our population that are stressed by heat, but no more than they are stressed by cold. How many old people seek out North Dakota in the winter?

It is not humane or human to want a cool or cold climate for the planet. Even plants like warmth. Life loves warmth. Life would decline dramatically in a planet-wide cool climate.

Let's do a straw poll. Those in favor of cold versus hot raise your hands. Okay, you can go ice fishing. The rest of us will put on some shorts and a wide-brimmed hat and go after marlins... or sun fish from our boats.

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Friday, March 06, 2009

CO2 And The Stock Market Decline

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS and GLOBAL WARMING

From my email... I don't necessarily subscribe to the political analysis and I believe the author does not subscribe to it as well. It was only done to make a point about bad statistical analysis. I would have further pointed out that the main deficiencies in the CO2 versus temperature correlation is that:

  1. CO2 increases after temperatures increase reversing the popular myth that CO2 causes temperature increases
  2. CO2 as a greenhouse gas is a minuscule portion of total greenhouse gases and even with the recent increases related to warming of 800 years ago, CO2 percentage of total atmospheric gases is basically unchanged
  3. Any greenhouse effect of CO2 is limited to a very narrow range and is self-limiting
Beyond that, here is the tongue-in-cheek "analysis:"


fromSteve Goddard
dateThu, Mar 5, 2009 at 11:20 PM
subjectBlog for publication


Hi Bruce,

I got your name from Roger Pielke Sr., who suggested that I send this over to you. Normally I publish my articles on Anthony Watt's site, but this one is too political for him. Please let me know what you think.

Thanks,
Steven

--
- Steven Goddard

Conclusion Driven Analysis

The news is littered with stories about scientists who have discovered damaging effects of global warming. Many of these analyses consisted of assuming global warming to be occurring, and then searching for data which appeared to fit the assumption.

Let us make a similar analysis, where we assume something to be true and prove it by finding the right data. The assumption in this case being that President Obama is responsible for the stock market crash. As you can see below, the conclusion correlates at least as well with the data as many of the conclusions of peer-reviewed global warming papers.

The graph above shows that if we ignore all other factors, there is excellent correlation between the highlights of President Obama's political success and the 50% loss of stock market value. Much better than the consensus correlation between CO2 and temperature, seen below.
The IPCC claims 90% confidence between observed warming and CO2, and that is accepted by government - so I claim 99+% confidence in my analysis. The point being that if you start with a pre-conceived notion and consider only one degree of freedom in a multi-variate analysis, you can prove almost anything you want - whether or not it is true.

For the record - analyst Obama gave his buy recommendation two days ago, based on a new terminology he coined "profit and earnings ratio."
Okay, Steve, you got your wish.

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Thursday, March 05, 2009

Detroit City Council Members' Claim To Obama

SEARCH BLOG: RACISM

Yesterday's po
st about the behavior of certain Detroit City Council members highlighted the tribal mentality that has driven humans apart since mankind left the trees. One element of that tribalism is the need to identify outsiders. In this case, a white union member was the "outsider" of choice. The "white" Obama was considered an "insider" because he was identified as a "black" Obama. This fit the emotional needs of those Council members who pride themselves on their black achievements for the city.

If, however, we examine the premise of their claim to Pres. Obama, we might get a glimpse into what is truly aberrant about their thinking which is that the only part of Pres. Obama that is black is a sperm donor who may or may not have been from Kenya who abandoned him before or after his birth that may or may not have occurred in Hawaii. The rest of Pres. Obama's upbringing he owes to the white women who gave him life, raised him to understand and appreciate the value of an education and who he promptly ignored once he got involved with black religious and political radicals.

Well, maybe that last part does make him a black man based at least in part on the Detroit model. Still, I'd say their claim to him as part of their tribe was shaky at best.

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Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Thaddeus McCotter And Gary Peters Write to Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner

SEARCH BLOG: AUTOMOBILES

Michigan Representatives Gary C. Peters and Thaddeus McCotter have written the following letters to Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner regarding the failure of TALF funding to enable automobile dealers to buy vehicles from manufacturers. If dealers can't get credit to buy vehicles, manufacturers can't sell the vehicles.

The government lends billions to keep GM and Chrysler operating and then their customers are unable to seal the deal.

Just a little detail someone forgot to address.

Use [CTRL -] to reduce image size

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 4, 2009

CONTACT: Jameson Cunningham
Office: 202-225-8171
Cell: 202-288-2147

PETERS CONTACT: Cullen Schwarz

Office: 202-225-5802

Cell: 202-641-3781

PETERS AND MCCOTTER URGE ACTION TO PROVIDE GREATER LIQUIDITY IN AUTO MARKETS

Chairman Frank and other House Financial Services Members Join in Calling on Fed and Treasury to Provide Access to Credit for Auto Dealers

Washington, D.C. – Congressmen Gary Peters and Thaddeus McCotter today called on the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury to act further to provide enhanced liquidity to promote domestic auto sales. In a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Peters and McCotter said that while the effort to promote liquidity in consumer markets through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) was welcome, providing greater access to domestic auto dealers is also needed. The letter, authored by Congressman Peters and McCotter, was also signed by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank and other Committee Members.

“If auto dealers can’t get financing, they can’t sell cars and our auto industry cannot recover,” said Congressman Peters. “The international credit crisis has crippled all sectors of the auto industry around the world. To protect millions of American jobs, we need a comprehensive approach to help the industry weather the global credit crisis. That means not only providing support to the Big Three and their parts suppliers and allowing consumers access to car loans, but also providing credit for dealers to keep cars moving on and off showroom floors. Efforts to protect jobs by supporting parts of the domestic auto industry could prove unsuccessful if we do not address the challenges facing all sectors of the industry.”

“As our American auto industry’s working families continue to endure a painful and perilous restructuring process, we look forward to working with the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to help these working families and our auto industry survive and, one day, thrive,” said Rep. McCotter. “If the American auto industry receives an enhanced bridge loan but cannot sell their cars, our communities will greatly suffer. I appreciate that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is willing to revisit the issue and make sure our working families keep their jobs, their homes, and their dreams for their children. I hope both the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department speedily find a way to ensure adequate financing for auto dealers is available. We must forestall this credit crisis by keeping men and women working in the auto industry employed; thus, removing financing barriers for auto dealers is essential.”

Yesterday, the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve announced the implementation of the TALF, through which up to $200 billion would be loaned to eligible owners of AAA-rated securities backed by auto, credit card and student loans to allow lenders to make more of these loans. However, rating agencies appear reluctant to rate loans to auto dealers as AAA, shutting dealers out of the program.

Full text and signatories of the Peters/McCotter letters:



It Can't Be Racist If You Are Black

SEARCH BLOG: DETROIT

We'll be heading back to Michigan tomorrow, so I was proud to see the ethical, moral, and astute leaders of the great city of Detroit had made news promoting racial harmony. As The Detroit News article stated:

Nowhere is Michigan's brain drain on greater display than in the Detroit City Council chambers.

My hopes for Detroit's future faded as I watched the tape of last Tuesday's council meeting, the one that considered the Cobo Center expansion deal.

It was a tragic circus, a festival of ignorance that confirmed the No. 1 obstacle to Detroit's progress is the bargain basement leaders that city voters elect. The black nationalism that is now the dominant ideology of the council was on proud display, both at the table and in the audience.

Speakers advocating for the deal were taunted by the crowd and cut short by Council President Monica Conyers, who presided over the hearing like an angry bulldog; whites were advised by the citizens to, "Go home."

Opponents were allowed to rant and ramble on uninterrupted about "those people" who want to steal Detroit's assets and profit from the city's labors.

A pitiful Teamster official who practically crawled to the table on his knees expressing profuse respect for this disrespectful body was battered by both the crowd and the council.

When he dared suggest that an improved Cobo Center would create more good-paying jobs for union workers, Conyers reminded him, "Those workers look like you; they don't look like me."

Desperate, he invoked President Barack Obama's message of unity and was angrily warned, "Don't you say his name here."

Juxtapose the place and the faces and imagine a white Livonia City Council treating a black union representative with such overt racial hostility. The Justice Department would swoop down like a hawk, and the Rev. Al Sharpton would clog Five Mile Road with protesters.

But in Detroit, dealing with the council's bigotry is part of the cost of doing business. As is dealing with its incompetence. (I'll pause here and excuse from that indictment Sheila Cockrel and Brenda Jones, who supported the Cobo deal, as did Kwame Kenyatta, who although he's an avowed nationalist, most often votes in the city's best interests.)

Emmet Moten, the developer who just opened the Fort Shelby Hotel downtown, was at the meeting and found it appalling. Moten went to Lansing in 1983 on behalf of Mayor Coleman Young to successfully lobby for a regional tax to support Cobo.

"And now we're saying, 'We don't want your money,'" Moten says. "If Coleman were alive today, he'd be outraged. It hurts, it really hurts."

Now, Moten says, "we Detroiters gotta be outraged."

Outraged enough to go to the polls in November and elect a brighter, more responsible council. Moten and others I talked with this week are encouraged that mayoral primary voters picked Dave Bing and Ken Cockrel Jr., the two most rational candidates on the ballot.

The test now will be whether it's those primary voters or the angry council crowd who represent the real Detroit.

As Moten notes, "You can't fix this for us. We have to fix it ourselves."

Nobody can help Detroit if voters again elect a City Council composed of separatists, clueless dowagers and the apparently insane.

Nolan Finley is editorial page editor of The News. Reach him at nfinley@detnews.com or (313) 222-2064.
I wrote to Mr. Findlay:
Your column in today's TDN highlights a very real problem in Detroit: the stupidity of the residents leads to stupidity in the government. It doesn't have to be that way: http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2008/03/can-blacks-govern-detroit-or-anywhere.html, but it probably will be that way: http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2009/02/detroit-on-verge-of-hope-and-change.html
I believe the only real hope for Detroit is dissolution and reorganization. The city is geographically too large for its population which is shrinking daily. It cannot provide services or public education or decent living environments for its residents. Property and home values are almost non-existent in many parts of the city. The government has devolved into personal fiefdoms for the politicians who pander to the "racial pride" of the residents. Rather than having a city of which to be proud, the residents are satisfied with a city that reflects a violent, immoral, unethical, anti-intellectual sub-culture in its political leaders. A lot of them still believe Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick was the best thing that could have happened to the city... before and after he went to jail. Perhaps that is why the half of the population that finds that repugnant has left... blacks, whites, and others.

As I have always told my sons and tell my readers every day: stupidity has its own rewards.

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Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Cap And Lose

SEARCH BLOG: CAP AND TRADE

How will Cap'n Scam (BHO) kill U.S. manufacturing? Addition of so-called carbon permits to the cost of U.S. products will drive customers to China where such schemes will be laughed at.

Talking with my brother-in-law revealed that U.S. manufactures of the extruded aluminum used in his business are shutting down production rather than dealing with Cap'n Scam's onerous schemes. He will now have to source from China. American tax base and jobs get further eroded while production of materials AND CO2 goes to China.

Stupidity is as stupidity does.

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Monday, March 02, 2009

Protests Stop Global Warming In Its Tracks

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

It appears that the threat of protests in Washington D.C. has stopped global warming in it's tracks. This strategy is so successful that it will be soon used for human rights violations in China, tyranny against women in the middle east, and cancer.

It's good to know that well-informed and motivated people can take such effective action.

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Global Warming Washington Style

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

From Marc Morano of Sen. Inhofe's staff:
to "Morano, Marc (EPW)"
date Sat, Feb 28, 2009 at 9:51 PM
subject BREAKING: Not again! Big DC Snowstorm to Greet 'Largest public protest of global warming ever in U.S.!' - Unseasonably Cold March Temps!
mailed-by epw.senate.gov
BREAKING: Not again! Big DC Snowstorm to Greet 'Largest public protest of global warming ever in U.S.!' - Unseasonably Cold March Temps!


[Note: All I (Marc Morano) can say is: HA! HA! HA!  - The ‘Gore Effect’ Strikes again – this time it impacts NASA’s James Hansen! See also: GORE HEARING ON WARMING MAY BE PUT ON ICE – Jan. 26, 2009 ]

 

BREAKING: Not again! Big DC March Snowstorm to Greet 'Largest public protest of global warming ever in U.S.!' – Unseasonably Cold March Temps!

 

DC under 'Winter Storm Watch'...Snow and unseasonably cold temps! 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Washington&state=DC&site=LWX&textField1=38.895&textField2=-77.0373&e=1

 

'Largest public protest of global warming ever in U.S.' set for Monday March 2, 2009 at U.S. Capitol w/ NASA’s James Hansen – Fox News – Feb. 27, 2009

Excerpt: NASA's chief climate scientist is in hot water with colleagues and at least one lawmaker after calling on citizens to engage in civil disobedience at what is being billed as the largest public protest of global warming ever in the United States. In a video on capitolclimateaction.org, Dr. James Hansen is seen urging Americans to "take a stand on global warming" during the March 2 protest at the Capitol Power Plant in Southeast Washington, D.C. "We need to send a message to Congress and the president that we want them to take the actions that are needed to preserve climate for young people and future generations and all life on the planet," says Hansen, who has likened coal-fired power plants to "factories of death" and claims he was muzzled by the Bush administration when he warned of drastic climate changes. […] But critics say Hansen's latest call to action blurs the line between astronomer and activist and may violate the Hatch Act, which prohibits federal employees from participating in partisan political activity. "Oh my goodness," one of Hansen's former supervisors, Dr. John Theon, told FOXNews.com when informed of the video. "I'm not surprised ... The fact that Jim Hansen has gone off the deep end here is sad because he's a good fellow." “Why he has not been fired I do not understand," Theon said.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,501064,00.html

 

Tracking 'The Gore Effect' – Politico November , 2008

 

[Note: The “Gore Effect” has a long and storied history. What follows is a sampling of how Mother Nature enjoys mocking global warming fear promoters.

 

1) First October snow since 1922 blankets London as global warming bill debated – October 2008  #

 

2) Global Warming Vote on Snowy Day in Washington - Senate committee debates expensive climate change bill snow blanket D.C. – December 2007  #

 

3) HOUSE HEARING ON 'WARMING OF THE PLANET' CANCELED AFTER SNOW/ICE STORM – February 2007  #

 

4) NOT AGAIN! DC 'Snow Advisory' Issued on Day of Congressional Global Warming Hearing – March 2007 #

 

5) Gore decries 'global warming' in bitterly cold NYC – December 2006 #

 

6) Gore delivers environmental message at Harvard - ...with near 125-year record breaking low temps – October 2008 #

 

7) Global warming activists urged to focus on Earth Day rallies and ignore snow as it 'piles up outside our windows' – April 17, 2007 #

 

8) No Joke! Cyclists 'braved freezing cold temps' to promote global warming awareness in New York - October 22, 2008 #

 

9) Global warming protest in Maryland frosted with snow – January 2008 #

 

10) Global warming rally in the snow – April 2007  #

 

11) Snow won't dampen global-warming rallies – April 2007  #

 

12) Brrr. - Obama to global warming demonstrators: 'This is probably not the weather to hold up those signs...it's a little chilly today' - October 28,  2008 #

 

13) Global Warming Awareness Walk Braves Snow Storm – March 2007  #

 

14) The Gore Effect, Cont. - Gore speaks in Italy during 'rare' cold and snow #

 

15) Tracking 'The Gore Effect’ – Politico November 26,6, 2008 #

 

16) Climate protest cancelled 'due to rain and cold' – Nov. 23, 2008 ]

Sunday, March 01, 2009

Alternative Energy Effect

SEARCH BLOG: GASOLINE

Gasoline with ethanol is fairly rare in Michigan... at least around my stomping grounds. So I really didn't pay attention to the pump when I was filling up in Central Florida. I did pay attention when the gas gauge seemed to be dropping precipitously after the fill-up.

Yup, ethanol. Drops the mileage about 5% or so. Therefore, the breakeven price should be about 10-cents per gallon less. It isn't so it isn't.

When we start looking at the alternative energy proposals so vigorously espoused by the Obama gang, you can bet that what ever the breakeven price with our present energy structure is... it won't be so it won't.

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A Matter Of Fairness

SEARCH BLOG: GOVERNMENT

The other day, I mentioned a NY Times article that related a White House position that it was unfair to give a greater rate per dollar for deductions to high income earners than middle income earners while completely avoiding the opposite side of the coin: higher income earners pay more taxes per dollar than middle income earners... which, of course, is fair if you are not a high income earner.

The "logic" is that those who get more should be forced to share more of what they get because they didn't really deserve what they earned. Sure, they might work 14-hour days... 7 days a week... and they may have risked all of their savings to fund their effort... and they may have provided employment to many others who didn't work as long or risk as much... but they really didn't deserve their success so it is ethical and just to penalize them for their income.

So, let's take that approach and apply it to sports. How about basketball? LeBron James earns a lot of money for bouncing a basketball around the court and putting in the basket 15 to 20 times a night or 60 to 80 times a week. There are a lot of young people who have worked hard to be good basketball players, but never got a penny for their efforts. They bought the Michael Jordan shoes and the Nike gear, but never got an endorsement contract. They are good people who are downtrodden by the system. It is time to address that inequity. They need a bailout... preferably from LeBron. I'm thinking that at least 1/3 of his fame and fortune should go to the less successful basketball players. Not the "middle class" players... the other NBA players. No, it should go to the high school and college players that spent their time on the bench! They tried!

Let the NBA handle the redistribution. They "govern" basketball. Oh sure, the NCAA has its own authority, but that's really more like state government. We need the federal government... the NBA.

And why stop there?

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Saturday, February 28, 2009

On The Road 11

SEARCH BLOG: TRAVEL

Sometimes plans change for no other reason than there was no reason not to change them. So, my wife announced that I should not pack for several more days because she saw no reason to get home if the high temperature was going to be 27 degrees [seeing it was 72 degrees here at the time she made her decision]. We'll head back to Michigan in time for the high temperatures to be 20 degrees warmer than they are now.

For the most part, our visit to Florida has been really pleasant even though the temperatures have been 5-10 degrees below normal. We don't think it is below normal, but then we haven't seen anything near normal in Michigan for several months. I'm beginning to think there must be a giant heat sink someplace in the world that has taken away the normal temperatures and left everyone shivering while NOAA declares global warming. One of our Florida kin complained that they have had several hard freezes and one of the coldest winters that they can remember. I didn't try to one-up that with an invitation to come to Michigan to experience cold [which is actually nothing like the cold of the four winters I spent in North Dakota]. Rather, I just grabbed my golf clubs and headed to sparsely populated golf courses where sub-four hour rounds are easily accomplished.

My younger brother is heading down here tonight and we'll get together before he and his wife head off for a 3 or 4 day cruise. We definitely will be leaving before he returns. Before that happens, my wife will be trying to convert more people to her low carb diet. I can picture the future: low carb parties where you get to try her recipes and then become a new "member" ala Tupperware. It's better than the political haranguing of last year.

Moving on....

The other day after Ben Bernanke spoke and the market jumped 270+ points, there was the positive impact of the Fed all over the news. Then, apparently, people actually listened to what he said and the market promptly lost what it had gained. Right now, President Obama is hoping things will change by randomly spending a lot of taxpayers' money... he seems to have bought into his own rhetoric about hope and change. The problem is that neither Wall Street nor Main Street has. Even California is beginning to understand that there is no free lunch.

And then there is scam and trade...

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Thursday, February 26, 2009

You Can't Get There From Here

SEARCH BLOG: AUTOMOBILES

Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter comes across more like a logic professor than a U.S. Congressman. A leads to B and B leads to C therefore A leads to C.

Unfortunately, the federal government doesn't necessarily use sound logic when establishing its programs and provisions. Let's look at the loans to General Motors and Chrysler as an example. The government is lending these manufacturers money to continue their operations. As part of the deal, they must jump through various restructuring hoops and come up with plans for producing and selling vehicles that will save our planet from the non-threat of CO2. These companies are doing just that. People are being laid off and engineering teams are whipping together fanciful vehicles that run on a variety of propulsion fuels that have no supporting infrastructure. Regardless, Congress can feel good about its efforts to "fix" these companies.

Here is where Rep. McCotter, the Diogenes of Congress, looks around and sees the hypocrisy and duplicity of the government and says [via Jameson Cunningham in McCotter's staff]:

“As our American auto industry’s working families continue to endure a painful and perilous restructuring process, the Federal Reserve must help – not hinder – these working families and our auto industry’s chance to survive and, one day, thrive.

Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) may not include credit access relief for domestic auto dealers to purchase cars from manufacturers. This past Wednesday, in the House Financial Services Committee, I reaffirmed the Federal Reserve must help make TALF work for auto dealers, consumers, and every working family in the American auto industry.

“Bluntly: if the American auto industry receives an enhanced bridge loan and continues its painful restructuring on the path to viability, the Federal Reserve cannot put this immense road block in the way of working families’ efforts to keep their jobs, their homes, and their dreams for their children.”

What is he saying... for those who miss the obvious... is that the government can't offer money to the auto companies on the condition that they do what the government says and then make it impossible for these companies to sell their vehicles because the government fails to ensure that the dealers who buy these vehicles have access to the credit from the banks which received much more from the government... but are refusing to provide dealers with credit.

The left hand doesn't know what the left wing is doing.

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On The Road 10

SEARCH BLOG: TAXES

I almost choked when I read this from The New York Times:

The White House says it is unfair for high-income people to get a bigger tax break than middle-income people for claiming the same deductions or making the same charitable contributions.
Let's get this straight: it is fair to pay more taxes per dollar for income made, but it is not fair to get a greater deduction per dollar for charity. And who is this "White House" person and when did he take logic?

I think I heard this White House character once say something like, "What's yours is mine and what's mine is mine." He seemed very pleased with his philosophy.

Moving on....

I know a diet must be working when my wife tells me I have to eat more. It really is difficult to eat 1,800 calories a day when it is comprised of mostly fat and protein with just some fiber thrown in. My stomach won't tell me I'm hungry.

We'll be traveling north soon, but not before some more golf. After a 4 month layoff, my game vacillates between golf and flog.

Moving on to the economy....

I am thinking that the psychology of a recession is similar to that of coping with grief and loss as postulated by Elisabeth Kübler-Ross

From Wikipedia, the five stages are:

  1. Denial:
    • Example - "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me!"
  2. Anger:
    • Example - "Why me? It's not fair!" "How can this happen, I hate this world!"
  3. Bargaining:
    • Example - "Just let me live to see my children graduate."; "I'll do anything, can't you stretch it out? A few more years." I will give my life savings if..."'
  4. Depression:
    • Example - "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "I'm going to die . . . What's the point?"
  5. Acceptance:
    • Example - "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it."
That struck me as what may take us out of this recession more than a government sponsored spending mess. I was talking with my brother who had called to tell me he was going to buy a new boat to replace the one he had bought used 12 years ago. It has seen better days and many days of hard use. He gave two reasons:
  1. He can get a great bargain now.
  2. He has lost many thousands of dollars in his retirement investments and the purchase price of the boat is small potatoes compared with that.
Basically, he has come to accept the present reality and concluded that he is going to go on living despite the loss. As more people do that, the economy will begin to return to normal.

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Wednesday, February 25, 2009

On The Road 9

SEARCH BLOG: TRAVEL and TRAFFIC


While I enjoy vacationing in the south during the winter, one of my pet peeves is the traffic control system in the Orlando area.  I have to admit that it seems a little better this winter, but that may be due to fewer tourists such as myself.  It's not about the roads which are pretty good given the lack of the freeze/thaw cycle of the north.  It's about the herky-jerky traffic movement patterns that simply waste time and gas.

The light synchronization on main surface streets gets so bad sometimes that I have resorted to taking the toll roads that are under construction rather than the surface streets whenever possible.  This evening I was on a main north-south street that is a boulevard and three lanes wide each way.  Start at a green signal and get to the next signal... at the posted speed... and it is turning red.  Start again when the signal turns green and get to the next signal as it is turning red.  That's infuriating enough, but it is made worse by the fact that these are secondary surface streets that are crossing the main street... not other primary thoroughfares.  Those intersections should be flashing yellow for the main street and flashing red for the secondary streets by 9 pm.  

At one point there was a line of vehicles on the main street at a bicycle path crossing that had the green light.  How many bicycles do you think were using the trail that time of night?  The federal government is making a big deal about pushing automobile manufacturers to build 1/2 ton pickups that get 35 mpg and cost $50,000 and emit no CO2, but nothing is said about the waste associated with really bad traffic management.

This is all over the U.S.  So why not have a provision in all of this road building stimulus giveaway that links the funds to a 100% improvement in traffic signal management.  All signals on all main roads should be timed so that a vehicle traveling at the posted speed can continue without having to stop for a signal when the road is at 80% of capacity or less.  That 30 minute drive is reduced to 20 minutes and the gas mileage is increase 25-50%.

Let's get something for our money beyond more taxes and vehicles that automobile manufacturers can't sell because ... regardless of government mandates ... they are only niche vehicles that are too expensive with too short of a range and too unreliable fuel sources.  Still looking for the hydrogen filling station?  Have to wait for propane while some guy get 4 barbeque tanks filled?  Too bad you have to go 50 miles and your plug-in electric only has a range of 40 miles.

...

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Economy 2009: You Are Here

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY


I keep this image [without the red text] in the right column.  You can disagree with the specific order and maybe even the specific parts, but history has shown that the spiral does and is happening.  


Meanwhile, how about $1 billion to Hamas?

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On The Road 8

SEARCH BLOG: FOOD

Got a temporary wifi connection for my laptop. God, I love regular keyboards instead of those elfin touch screens.

As I mentioned a few days ago, my wife's family tends to be on the large size. One of her sister's kids had spent a couple of weeks with us last year and we had discussions about eating right. Because of the success we've had with a low carb diet, my wife and I decided to have another discussion about food and health with our niece who lives in the area where we are visiting.

My wife spent the better part of a day going over her recently discovered recipes and preparing them with our niece. She seemed to enjoy that. But then I showed her a little application that can be downloaded into the iPhone called "Lose It." It's a free add-on that allows you to set your weight goals and then gives you a calorie "budget" for the day.

Our niece got very interested at that point... she had an iPhone, too. Like so many young people, she was intrigued by new technology. This was just what she wanted... an easy way to track what she ate and get an analysis of how it fit into her diet goals. Calories, fat, protein, and carbohydrates, all detailed and graphed. The application allows a person to enter whole recipes that can be divided into various serving amounts. It has a large database of foods... including brand name and restaurant food. Want to know what that double Whopper cheeseburger contains? I looked it up. About 2/3 of a day's calories for me.

My niece spent quite a bit of time copying all of the recipes from my iPhone into her's. It would have been nice if I could have just sent them via email, but the application does not have that functionality. Still, the fact that she spent all of that time entering the information manually shows more than just passing interest.

I'm curious to see if my wife and I are able to maintain this diet successfully as we continue our travels. We did not bring our own scale and it seems that there is at least a 10 pound variance among home scales... +/- 5 lbs. So, we'll see if we could at least maintain the level we were at when we left. No double Whopper cheeseburgers included.

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Monday, February 23, 2009

On The Road 7

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER and POLITICS

It's all relative here with the relatives. Temperatures have been cold for them, but warm for us. Normal high is mid-70s; it's been in the 60s... which is a far cry from the below-normal teens and 20s back home. Not sure how much snow there has been, but the neighbors are kindly handling things and we have a 4x4 that can handle most of what the winter travels might throw our way. I'll agree to give up my winter-capable vehicle as soon as global warming actually makes a difference in Michigan weather... perhaps a few thousand years from now.

My wife can't handle political news withdrawal. She spends her non-visiting hours watching cable news or web-surfing on her iPhone. This morning before coffee was even ready, she announced that it was time to impeach Pres. Obama for signing an order/legislation? allowing thousands or hundred of thousands of Palestinians into the US after they were refused entry by Egypt and other nearby Muslim states who apparently saw them as potential security threats. Her reaction is that is just what we need (dripping sarcasm) ... a major influx of Jew-hating, women-suppressing, it's-okay-to-blow-up-your-children-for-Allah nut jobs... on top of millions of illegal aliens from Mexico bringing chaos to our cities (well California anyway) and destroying our state and local budgets. Impeachment? It's about protection from all enemies... foreign and domestic... and doing the opposite.

Reminds me of an old episode of "House" I watched with my mother-in-law. He was carrying on about an unnaturally calm and seeking-to-please patient. House said that he had to be ill because nature breeds out people like that patient. The gist: three cavemen faced with a stranger carrying a weapon. One turns and runs. Another gets his own weapon and confronts the stranger. The third yells a welcome and tries to give the stranger a friendly hug. The third one does not have offspring.

Coffee put her in a slightly better mood.

The plan for today is to try to find a suitable movie to take our elderly mothers. I believe those ceased to be made in the 1950s, but it looks as if I'll be getting my vitamin D from a pill.

Another local peculiarity: TV ads are dominated by hearing aids and battery-powered "scooter" chairs. You'd think the average age of Florida residents was 80 or so.

More from my $)$);@!? iPhone touch-screen later.

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Sunday, February 22, 2009

On The Road 6

SEARCH BLOG: TECHNOLOGY

An interesting artifact of local roads in part of the Central Florida area are so-called "traffic signal confirmation lights" ... small, bright blue lights that appear over the traffic signals when the light is red. Apparently, the purpose of the blue lights is to assist law enforcement officers in determining that a vehicle has run through a red light.

Before I read why those blue lights were there ... the City of Oviedo website provided the explanation ... I thought the lights were added to assist Florida's older drivers or red-green color-blind drivers at night when poor vision or the inability to see the signal light position in the stack could add to the danger of going through a red light. I still think it would be a good idea in highly congested areas where speeds are in excess of 40 mph.

Of course, the best of ideas needs to be executed properly. At several intersections, the blue lights were on over one red signal, but off over the red light in the adjacent lane. Worse, sometimes they were off over the red signal and on over the left-turn lane signal that was green. Bad execution of techology is worse than the absence of the technology.

Technologies have a lot of unintentional consequences ... good and bad. Cell phones can be life savers or life takers depending on how, when, and where they are used. So it's not surprising that lights intended to help police make more certain arrests also assist some drivers in avoiding those arrests. Of course, the only technology that would really help with some of Florida's speeding, tail-gating drivers is a system that signals the car to brake when the approaching light is red. Maybe that's one for the future.

Still hunting and pecking on the iPhone touch screen. There is a foldable Bluetooth keyboard that has been developed to work with the iPhone... once Apple gets off it's collective butt and enables it's iPhone to work with the keyboard. The phone has Bluetooth capability, but for some reason Apple won't program it to work with the keyboard.

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Saturday, February 21, 2009

On The Road 5

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Yesterday, I had a little fun with CO2 and O2... and our government's push to treat a harmless... no, necessary... chemical of life that has been given this monstrous reputation as a threat to our existence... based on erroneous assumptions and sloppy science... as a pollutant. Without a real understanding of climate dynamics, climate drivers, and man's real impact on the environment, a few politicians and activists began a deliberate campaign of misinformation and half-truths designed to create fear in the general population about our future... fear that would give them power, influence, and money. And they were largely successful.

Now we have large segments of our government focused on "reinventing" our economy and the free market around the one big lie: man-made global warming is happening because man creates CO2 as a by-product of his economy and free-market. The scam artists and fringe products are lining up to take money from the government's "reinventing." But we'll be saved from harmless and necessary CO2.

This same government is now going to protect us from racism. AG Holder laments that out legal system is putting too many young blacks in jail... since the percent of black inmates is three to four times the percentage that the black population comprises of the general population. Just as government chooses to ignore the real science of climate and the minor role that CO2 actually plays, it seems this government official wants to ignore the violent, anti-intellectual black sub-culture that produces these jail squatters and seeks to blame the legal system. Perhaps this is the next "reinventing" planned by our new administration. A "reinventing" that will now over-protect our criminals and terrorists from our legal system. After all, our system "discriminates" against their actions just because they are minorities.

Did George Orwell own a time machine?

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CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)