READ ABOUT DETROIT AND SOLUTIONS TO ITS PROBLEMS. CLICK HERE.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Department Of Energy Plays Market Favorites

SEARCH BLOG: ENERGY and GOVERNMENT

This may be slightly better than opening the taxpayers pockets and dumping their money into the wastelands of Detroit without a real plan... but only slightly.

When tiny Fisker Automotive Inc. hit a financing glitch last year, threatening its plan to build a fancy gasoline-electric hybrid car in Finland, it turned to the U.S. Department of Energy.

The DOE had a bolder idea. Why not also step up the company's plans to develop a less-expensive model, and assemble it in a closed U.S. auto plant?

Within months, Vice President Joe Biden, the former senator from Delaware, was helping lure the embryonic car company to a shuttered General Motors Co. factory four miles from his house in Wilmington, right across the tracks from Biden Park. Soon, Fisker Automotive, a two-year-old business that has yet to sell a car, won loans from the federal government totaling $528 million.

Fisker's new Karma model car, on display at the Los Angeles Auto Show earlier this month.

Fisker had joined a flock of other businesses seeking cash from the biggest venture capitalist of all, the U.S. government.

The DOE hopes to lend or give out more than $40 billion to businesses working on "clean technology," everything from electric cars and novel batteries to wind turbines and solar panels. In the first nine months of 2009, the DOE doled out $13 billion in loans and grants to such firms. By contrast, venture-capital firms -- which have long been the chief funders of fledgling tech firms, taking equity stakes in the start-ups that will pay off if they go public -- poured just $2.68 billion into the sector in that time, according to data tracker Cleantech Group.

Read more....

Rather than pick a company as a winner in the electric/alternative fuel race and then pour hundreds of millions of dollars... or more... into it [or whatever the amount today is], the DOE could simply work with a consortium of U.S.-based companies to develop systems that would be made available without fees to those companies. The systems could be patented and foreign-based companies could use them if they were superior to those developed by Japan, Inc. or Europe, Inc. for a fee per vehicle.

What is more likely is that a variety of competitive systems will be coming out faster than any government-run group could get its products through the red-tape maze. Given that, what is the government doing shelling out money to create another automobile manufacturer in an already crowded market?

Unlike the Kennedy administration race to the moon that opened up many new technologies to a variety of industries, this effort by the DOE has a vague goal and vaguer protocols about dealing with existing markets, companies, and infrastructure. Another fine stimulus program.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Monday, December 14, 2009

Climate Talks All About Money

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Dropping any pretense about Climate talks being about anything other than money, this African representative put it bluntly:

At the heart of the disputes in Copenhagen are sharp disagreements over money, which came to the fore again Monday. Mamadou Honadia, who is part of the negotiating team for the African nation of Burkina Faso, said the G-77 had resumed talks with rich-nations, but was still unhappy that industrialized countries weren't giving longer-term financial commitments to poorer states.

"We need to see developed nations give us a plan of what (financial) transfers will come in five years, ten years and how much over the years ahead, and we aren't seeing that," he said.

The EU has pledged €7.2 billion ($10.5 billion) in financing between next year and 2012 to jump-start the fight against climate change in developing countries.

A Nigerian delegation official said earlier Monday that a key reason for the walkout was under funding from rich nations. He said the E.U. offer for just over €7 billion in short-term funding was "pathetic."

Read more....

As if any money transfers will be used for anything beyond lining the pockets of despots.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Getting Ready For Christmas Again

SEARCH BLOG: CHRISTMAS

From last year... ditto.

I'm busy now making Christmas pastries for gifts to the family. Will write more about this.


It's a lot like Baklava.
Instructions are here: The Holidays Are For Eating..

Sunday, December 13, 2009

JournalismGate

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATEGATE

From Anthony Watts - Watts Up With That?:

Here’s a recent story from the Associated Press:

By Seth Borenstein, Raphael Satter and Malcolm Ritter, Dec 12, 2009

“E-mails stolen from climate scientists show they stonewalled skeptics and discussed hiding data — but the messages don’t support claims that the science of global warming was faked, according to an exhaustive review by The Associated Press.”

Look in the mirror, fools. It’s right there in the CRU emails:

On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:54 AM, Borenstein, Seth wrote:

Kevin, Gavin, Mike,
It’s Seth again. Attached is a paper in JGR today that
Marc Morano is hyping wildly. It’s in a legit journal. Whatchya think?
Seth

Seth Borenstein
Associated Press Science Writer
[7]sborenstein@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
The Associated Press, 1100 13th St. NW, Suite 700,
Washington, DC
20005-4076
202-641-9454

READ MORE....

I'll say those skeptics are a bunch of jackals. Whatchya think?

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Copenhagen Violence An Old Leftist "Trick"

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

When data fails to support you and science fails to support you and disclosure shows deceit and unethical manipulation, there is one irrefutable argument the extreme left always employs...


Black day in Copenhagen (AFP: Attila Kisbenedek)

Kind of reminds you of those conservative "Tea Party" rallies where unruly and violent crowds come dressed in black and try to intimidate ... oh wait, they don't.

Well, the Copenhagen Clowns have a much better trick to "settling" disagreements of fact. You can see how their science is settled. No need to have to spend a lot of time "adjusting" data.

But you don't have to go to Copenhagen to see this mentality in action. Just go to one of the most liberal campuses in the United States with one of the most liberal administrations and see how these nitwits treat their own. h/t American Power

A University of California, Berkeley spokesman passes debris outside Chancellor Robert Birgeneau's on-campus residence on Saturday, Dec. 12, 2009, in Berkeley, Calif. Eight people were under arrest Saturday after protesters broke windows, lights and planters outside the home of the chancellor of the University of California, Berkeley. University spokesman Dan Mogulof said 40 to 70 protesters also threw incendiary devices at police cars and the home of Chancellor Birgeneau about 11 p.m. Friday. (AP Photo/Noah Berger) ( Noah Berger )
Of course, the Berkeley violence was because the leftists were being asked to spend their money, whereas the Copenhagen violence was because the leftists want to spend your money... and neither group cares one iota about the facts of the matter.

Click images for more.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Saturday, December 12, 2009

Lies Into Nobel Prizes

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Random thought: judging from recent "peace prizes," politics is the art of turning lies into public adulation.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Recovery Just Around The Corner

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

The media hits the same note every day: the recession is ending... the economy is getting stronger. Just a few observations:

  • Oil has fallen below $70 again. There simply is not enough demand to prop up higher prices.
  • Interest rates remain grounded. There simply is not enough economic activity to warrant raising rates. Raising rates, in fact, may put the economy into a deeper tail spin.
  • Employment is not improving. Jobs are sporadic and temporary. Stimulus funds are not generating permanent jobs.
  • Housing is laid waste. It is likely that any small increase in new housing was based on the hope of improvement rather than a queue of buyers.
Only government is getting bigger... and that may end in 2010... with certainty in 2012. The corner is a lot longer than is being told.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Friday, December 11, 2009

It's Just War

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA

President Obama has moved 180° in his world view according to The Wall Street Journal. Whereas his previous stance was that we can all just sit down, drink beer, and respect each other; he now thinks that the use of the military to achieve goals is "just war..." not too much to look at... move along.

Maybe George was right.

Obama Defends 'Just War' at Oslo

By ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON and JONATHAN WEISMAN

OSLO -- President Barack Obama accepted the Nobel Peace Prize Thursday with an embrace of armed might in the service of a "just war," a sharp change in emphasis from his past rhetoric criticizing the foreign policy of the Bush years.

The address set a new tone for his young administration, which been accused by foreign-policy hawks of being too accommodating to overseas powers and too quick to seek favor abroad.

In accepting his Nobel Peace Prize, President Obama acknowledges the difficulty of accepting a peace prize while engaged in two wars. Video courtesy Nobel Media.

Mr. Obama made a muscular defense of American action against enemies, and recognized the existence of "evil" in the globe and the inherent fallibility of human impulses -- core principles of a more traditionally conservative foreign policy.

Read more....
Mr. Obama is expected to appear at the Copenhagen Climate Conference to declare that the climategate scandal was "just numbers" and that the decade-long decline in global temperatures was "just a pause."

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Thursday, December 10, 2009

Carbon... Okay, Nitrogen... Will You Believe Oxygen?

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

... and will oxygen be next? You have to have all of those O2s to make everything evil... CO2... NO2... SO2.... If we get rid of the oxygen, all of our problems are solved.

From Icecap:

Forget Carbon, Copehagen Scientists Find New Target to Spend Our Money on - Nitrogen!

An international group of scientists say there is an immediate need for a global assessment of the nitrogen cycle and its impact on climate.

On a planetary scale, human activities, especially fertiliser application, have more than doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen in circulation on land. This massive alteration of the nitrogen cycle affects climate, food security, energy security, human health and ecosystem health. The long-term consequences of these changes are yet to be fully realised, but the human impact on the nitrogen cycle has so far been largely missed in international environmental assessments.

Nitrogen’s role in climate change will be highlighted at an event on 7 December at the COP-15 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. Event organisers will be calling for a new assessment of nitrogen and climate, which will identify innovative nitrogen management strategies for global climate change mitigation and associated co-benefits to society.

Dr Cheryl Palm, the chair of the International Nitrogen Initiative (INI), which is organising the event, said “Nitrogen and climate interactions are not yet adequately included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment process. There is an urgent need to assess the possibilities of nitrogen management for climate abatement and at the same time increase food security, while minimising environmental and human health impacts.”

Dr Palm added, “We believe that in tackling nitrogen new opportunities for climate abatement will be created.”

Read more....

At some point, even idiots know they are being suckered.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Detroit - The New Republic Misses The Target

SEARCH BLOG: DETROIT

From The New Republic:

The Detroit Project

A plan for solving America’s greatest urban disaster.

For much of the United States, Detroit has become shorthand for failure--not just because of the dilapidation of the town’s iconic industry, but because the entire metropolis seems like a dystopian disaster. It is the second-most-segregated metropolitan area in the country; the city’s population is 82 percent African American. No other American city has shed more people since 1950--Detroit is only half its former size. Its city government fails at the most basic tasks. A call to 911 will bring a response, on average, in about 20 minutes. (Such emergency calls are depressingly common in the metropolitan area: There are 1,220 violent crimes per 100,000 people.) And that’s to say nothing of corruption in the municipal ranks. This year alone, at least 48 Detroit public-school employees have been investigated for fraud--which might help explain why only one in four high school freshmen ever receives a diploma. Unemployment in Detroit stands at a staggering 28 percent. And, in key measures of economic vitality in the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan regions, Detroit finishes dead last.

Read more....

I had written the following to Mr. Katz on December 3:

Mr. Katz:

I read with interest your paper, "The Detroit Project," in the December 2 issue of The New Republic. As a resident of Detroit suburbs for nearly 40 years and having worked in downtown Detroit during the 1990s, I can attest to the fact the Detroit represents the worst of U.S. cities.

The same or similar concept you describe was presented in the Detroit Free Press in May [abstract]. The idea of large parks and some agriculture mixed in with concentrations of homes or businesses seems appealing. The problem is that Detroit residents simply lack the skills, education, leadership, resources, or focus to attain such a transformation. Detroit is a predominantly black city of predominantly under-educated, lower-income individuals. That may sound racially charged and biased, but it is simply a fact [see the first link below]. Overall, the percentage of unemployed is about the same as the percentage of vacant/abandoned/derelict parcels. A recent infusion of federal funds has barely made a difference.

I have written several times regarding the Detroit situation including, but not limited to the following:

The point of these posts is that the most straightforward way to salvage Detroit is to retrench. Detroit reached its present geographic area through annexation as its economy and population expanded. It is time to split off areas that cannot be supported through the present resources of the city. 138 sq. mi. is just too great an area for 800,000 people to fill and support when those people cannot support themselves. Two generations have presided over the decline of Detroit. Given the present economic situation in the U.S. and Michigan in particular, the likelihood of creating a viable city of 138 sq. mi. is quite remote. A myriad of problems, not the least of which are 1960s-style unions, massive corruption, high taxes, high crime, and a "[poor]black-[sub]culture" mentality of the populace makes it unlikely that well-educated, highly-resourceful, non-blacks will move back to rescue the city.

Detroit's business and cultural core can be restored and is being restored partially and randomly, but not keeping up with concomitant decay. The anchor represented by the rest of the city is preventing real vitality. Detroit needs to shrink back to its core area and a few viable business and residential areas and disenfranchise the rest. Allow the state to reclaim and reorganize the remainder, including condemning large tracts that could become the basis for new "greenfields" for parks, agriculture, or enterprise zones. The City of Detroit is not capable of such transformation in its present form.

Sincerely,

Bruce Hall
This is a case for the State of Michigan to declare "eminent domain" and get the job done. That $18 billion in 2008 just sort of disappeared. It should have been used to clear out vast tracts of unsalvageable properties.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Just In Case Warming Wanes

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

We had our natural gas furnace inspected today... just in case weather outweighs climate.

Click image for larger view.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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EPA Will Ban Natural Gas

SEARCH BLOG: EPA

Now that the silliness has begun at the EPA, it is time to take a serious look at how this will impact the lives of those living in the U.S.

We already know that gasoline-powered automobiles and coal-fired power plants have been targeted for extinction. But the EPA may be stomping through the CO2 thicket trying to flush out even more targets. So would you be surprised if natural gas is next?

Coal and natural gas are the most abundant sources of energy in the U.S. There are trillions of cubic feet of natural gas available. The problem is that once-clean natural gas is now the source of severe pollution. The EPA simply cannot apply one standard for coal-fired power plants and another for natural gas plants. They both produce CO2 as a by-product of combustion. This is the formula for the combustion of natural gas:

CH4 + O2 --> CO2 + H2O

See... CO2 !!! But that's not all. H2O !!! Yes, another greenhouse gas !!! Could it get any worse ???

Take a look at this chart.

23.2% of the U.S. electricity is produced at power plants producing these dangerous pollutants from dirty, filthy natural gas. What's worse is that most of the natural gas comes from right here in the U.S. !!!

Sure, natural gas may produce less CO2 per equivalent energy from gasoline or coal, but CO2 is CO2. Walk the talk!

It is time the EPA pushed forward with the latest "Chinese solution" ... wind turbines manufactured by our largest creditor.

We can have non-polluting power subsidized by Chinese manufacturing at worker-friendly facilities using the latest clean-air methods [must see]... and get rid of hundreds of thousands of those pesky birds and bats that pollute our view of the sky. Of course, we will have to ignore those wind turbines, but we'll get used to them as "background noise."

What could be better than that?

We strongly urge the EPA to take action to save us from warmer temperatures and filthy energy.

No doubt our government will somehow have to come up with cash for all of us to convert our home heating and electricity for cooling to more natural methods.





It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.
George Orwell, "1984", first sentence

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Tuesday, December 08, 2009

The Government Of The Government For The Government

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Your protectors from CO2 and the Constitution:



These are the people responsible for removing representational government from our government.

We are now run as a not-so-benign dictatorship where appointed "czars" and "regulatory mandates" supersede the rule of law and the Constitution of the United States.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Climate Hot Error

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Don't you find it ironic that "Hot Errors" call those who do not adhere to the religion of AGW "flat-earthers?"

What happened to the scientific method without falsifying data? What happened to rigorous investigation? Since when is science ever "settled?" The Hot Errors simply cannot see the error of their ways... that their ends do not justify anti-scientific means. Climategate was more that just some errors in the data or errors in judgment. Climategate revealed errors in basic character that led others to erroneous conclusions about the state of our planet.

The heat these Hot Errors feel from holding the climate elephant's tail isn't necessarily from earth's temperatures increasing.
At some point, the Climate Elephant just had to eliminate those errors. Just don't try to hand me any of your s**t... Mr. Brown.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Why Climate Scientists Don't Use Raw Data

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

What's a little data "spinning?"


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Monday, December 07, 2009

Post Obama Health Care

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA

Where Nancy Pelosi gets her next face lift. You've got to love innovation... even if it is fiction.

I wonder if this qualifies for medical expenses on your taxes?


h/t The Medical Quack

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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December 7, 1941

SEARCH BLOG: PEARL HARBOR

Top -- The battleship USS Arizona after a bomb penetrated into the forward magazine causing massive explosions and killing 1,104 men. Bottom -- Dousing the flames on the battleship USS West Virginia, which survived and was rebuilt. (Photo credits: U.S. National Archives)


'A day that will live in infamy' - spoken by President Franklin D. Roosevelt addressing a joint session of congress.

Memories, like old pictures, fade. History never learned are lessons that must be learned again. There is no strength through weakness. Ignoring enemies does not dismiss them. Avoiding the truth about them does not change the truth. Appeasing them inflames their aggression.

A very large part of the world has governments and people for whom rule of law and rights of the individual are a distant second to the whims of rulers or the demands of their god as interpreted by their rulers. Their need for power is never sated. Only their fear of our power holds them in check.

60 years after the attack on Pearl Harbor, our nation was attacked from the air once again. This time, there was the will to fight back, but not the clear vision of who was the enemy and what was the course of action to respond. So while our young men and women fought and died in battles against an ideology, our Congress responded with bickering and in-fighting and gamesmanship.

We now have a president who has neither the stomach or the vision for this conflict and whose main strategy is to leave the battlefield as quickly as possible and wait... for the next attack on America while hoping the conflict will simply go away.

But it will come. And the battles will be fought here.

An excellent post about the attack on Pearl Harbor and its consequences here.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Sunday, December 06, 2009

The Climate Elephant In The Room

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE

The science is settled, Gore told the lawmakers. Carbon-dioxide emissions — from cars, power plants, buildings and other sources — are heating the Earth's atmosphere. [NPR]
So why is the debate so rancorous if Al Gore, Nobel prize winner, is correct?

The Buddha here tells the story of a king who had six blind men gathered together to examine an elephant.

"When the blind men had each felt a part of the elephant, the king went to each of them and said to each: 'Well, blind man, have you seen the elephant? Tell me, what sort of thing is an elephant

The six blind men assert the elephant is either like a pot (the blind man who felt the elephants' head), wicket basket (ear), ploughshare (tusk), plough (trunk), granary (body), pillar (foot), mortar (back), pestle (tail) or brush (tip of the tail).

The men cannot agree with one another and come to blows over the question of what an elephant really is like, and this delights the king. The Buddha ends the story of the king and compares the six blind men to preachers and scholars who are blind and ignorant and hold to their own views: "Just so are these preachers and scholars holding various views blind and unseeing.... In their ignorance they are by nature quarrelsome, wrangling, and disputatious, each maintaining reality is thus and thus." The Buddha then speaks the following verse:

O how they cling and wrangle, some who claim
For preacher and monk the honored name!
For, quarreling, each to his view they cling.
Such folk see only one side of a thing.[2]
[Wikipedia]
Here is an example:

Mainstream climate scientists say they have kept an open mind but have rejected papers that lack proper evidence. In Pielke’s case, “the literature doesn’t show” his ideas about the importance of land use are correct, said Tom Karl, head of the NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.”

This can easily be refuted in national and international assessments; e.g.

National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties. Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate Change, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 208 pp

where one excerpt reads

“Several types of forcings—most notably aerosols, land-use and land-cover change, and modifications to biogeochemistry—impact the climate system in nonradiative ways, in particular by modifying the hydrological cycle and vegetation dynamics. …….Other nonradiative forcings modify the biological components of the climate system by changing the fluxes of trace gases and heat between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere and by modifying the amount and types of vegetation. …… Nonradiative forcings have eventual radiative impacts, so one option would be to quantify these radiative impacts. However, this approach may not convey appropriately the impacts of nonradiative forcings on societally relevant climate variables such as precipitation or ecosystem function.”

Read more....


I'm thinking that Al Gore is the one holding the tail. Maybe that's why the very obvious impact of urbanization... "lows in the 30s and the 20s in outlying areas"... as well as deforestation.... and the sun.... and really bad data... seem to be conveniently ignored by those who focus on CO2. He... and they... have definitely missed the "bigger picture."

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Saturday, December 05, 2009

53-52=45-44

SEARCH BLOG:FOOTBALL

It's basketball season so scores like 53 to 52 or 45 to 44 are expected... except those are football scores:

  • Fresno State 53; Illinois 52
  • Cincinnati 45; Pittsburgh 44
Fresno State wins when a 6'6", 350 lb. offensive tackle catches a tipped ball on a 2-point conversion with 2 seconds to go... and makes it into the end zone.

Cincinnati comes back and wins with a touchdown... after the Pittsburgh extra-point is missed when the holder can't place the ball down.

Strange football, to say the least.

UPDATE

13-12=53-52=45-44; Texas over Nebraska. What happened to all of that Big-12 offense? Alabama and Florida was a much different story. Why couldn't Saban do that at Michigan State?

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H2O Worries A Real Worry

SEARCH BLOG: CALIFORNIA

Unlike fictitious CO2 problems, H2O is a genuine problem in many states. It's a giant problem in California.

I have an interest in California because one of my son's and his family live there... and I think it has some interesting fruits and nuts. The problem is that there is a water supply problem affecting humans and agriculture. Oh, there is a lot of water nearby, but just not available.

Recently, California got a total of $40 billion "to finance a safe drinking water and water supply reliability program for California." An article in Environmental News Service discusses this financing. Governor Schwarzenegger said, "This money will fund a variety of different projects which will fix the Delta, it will restore its ecosystem and it will go and build a better conveyance system. And we will have, once and for all, below and above the ground water storage, which we have been fighting for and I wouldn't have signed this without that water storage."

"In addition," said [Secretary of the Interior Ken] Salazar, "the administration is fully committed to funding and moving forward with the construction of the Delta-Mendota Canal/California Aqueduct Intertie, pending the completion of a Record of Decision on the project, which we anticipate within the next 60 days. [EPA]

interactive image:  photo of the Delta-Mendota Canal; click for larger photo
The Delta-Mendota Canal

So water will be moved from one place to another and that may solve the problem... or not. Just another thought. Certainly, fresh water could be supplied to all cities near the Pacific coast through desalination plants that cost about $100 million apiece. California could build 200 of those for half of the $40 billion and divert a lot of natural fresh water to the central farming regions using the remaining $20 billion toward that. Coastal cities don't need mountain water; farming valleys do.

Or the money can be spent on pumping CO2 into ground storage instead.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Can"t Find It?

Use the SEARCH BLOG feature at the upper left. For example, try "Global Warming".

You can also use the "LABELS" below or at the end of each post to find related posts.

Blog Archive

Cost of Gasoline - Enter Your Zipcode or Click on Map

CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

My photo
Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)