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Friday, November 12, 2004

Life or death at the extremes

Sometimes you read or hear things that just don't ring true... you do a double-take and then laugh and then shake your head.

Take the trial of Coral Watts who has gone on the record as killing over a dozen women. He is about to be released by the State of Texas because he was granted immunity for the killings in return for showing where the bodies were and consequently was sent to jail only for burglary... where he was a "model" prisoner and is about to get out early for "good behavior".

The Detroit News columnist, Laura Berman, wrote that:

Judge Kuhn has ruled that Watts' confessions could be allowed as evidence, although the jury could not consider them to be proof that he's a "bad man".... [I think that's the part where you do a double-take and laugh... unless you are a juror]

One witness. Lost files. Musty recollections. No DNA. A scheme of random kills. That evidence, and all those suffering faces -- living and dead -- haunting you in the courtroom. In 2F, the law requires a fair trial, proof beyond a reasonable doubt.

And you, the juror, will have to decide if you care.

It's one of those situations... double-take, laugh, shake your head. Life doesn't always make sense on the extremes. This is a case where everyone knows a man is a serial killer... he admitted it. But the law that is supposed to protect the innocent from self-incrimination is turned upside down to allow a self-admitted killer to be protected from the law.

It really all boiled down to the requirement to prove this guy's guilt. Michigan couldn't do it before he went to Texas and neither could Texas when he killed women there... so Texas struck a deal to get him off the streets... 60 years for burglary. But the guy was smart. Once the deal was struck, he was immune from prosecution for murder. He became the model prisoner and ... imagine that ... the system that failed to prove he was guilty of the crimes he committed has now been played again ... time off for "good behavior".

Irony of all ironies.

Michigan is trying to convict him for the one murder the prosecutors think they can tie him to here, but the evidence is sketchy. Sure the jurors know about his confessions in Texas... but that is irrelevant to the law... in Michigan.

So Laura Berman asks the question that is probably on the mind of all the jurors...
If the law is this screwed up... should I care what the law says or just do what is right?
I think Coral Watts is about to play the law for the third time. I wouldn't be surprised if he is released... nor surprised if he has a bad accident shortly thereafter... and no one will care.

Life doesn't always make sense at the extremes... but it might.

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
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“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)