2020 Conclusion
15 years... not that far into the future. How will things be the same; how will things be different?
The same: the U.S. will still be the most formidable economic and military power in the world.
Different:
- U.S. will face greater challenges in:
- Education
- Growing minorities population with less tendency toward high school/college graduation or PhDs.
- Need to provide alternative to academic-oriented education
- Economy
- Continued pressure on manufacturing from both China and India
- Real possibility of a currency crisis stemming from trade deficits
- Trade focus may begin to shift to the "Americas" and away from Europe and Asia
- High level of illegal immigration of primarily poor, undereducated Hispanics plus an aging White population will create enormous strains on social programs that will require significant changes in the programs or increases in taxes
- International relations
- Gradual reduction of military efforts regarding Middle East/Islamic issues in favor of increasing European Union/Russian responsibility as those areas become increasingly sensitive to the Muslim Influx
- Recognition of China as both an antagonisic military and economic competitor may force U.S. to consider creating stronger ties with India... despite economic competition... because India will be seen as having interests similar to the U.S. regarding China and Islamic activism
- Recognition of economic opportunities "south of the border" in Latin and South America leading to greater cooperation and trade in those areas
- European Union faces new directions
- Turkey's efforts to join the EU have an upside and downside
- A large, growing market and educated population can be a major contributor to the EU
- The "Muslim Influx" into northern Europe is a potential source of social upheaval that could set back the EU indefinitely
- Other eastern European nations may press for membership which might cause both political and economic issues for the region
- Relationship with Russia must be addressed
- Asia faces growing pains
- China is a major question mark
- Will it become a "legitimate" business environment or continue as a place for pirates and opportunists
- Will it seek to use its growing military power to coerce the rest of Asia
- Will it seek to expand its influence more into the western hemisphere, including Latin and South America
- India may become an economic superpower or collapse from internal and external pressure
- China and India could become mutual markets for each other
- India could become bogged down in escalating conflicts with Muslim countries and Muslim minorities within India
- AIDS could become a sociological disaster among the hundreds of millions in poverty
- Central and Western Asia will continue to be a source of Islamic issues for the rest of Asia and Europe
- South America may become a major market and supplier to the world if social and political issues can be addressed
- Africa will remain a backwater despite significant markets and resources due to political instability and AIDS
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