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Friday, February 11, 2005

2020 Preparations - Step 3: Population Impact - 2

Yesterday I reviewed population facts. Today let's look at the implications:

  • China and India will have a combined population approaching 3 billion by 2020 making that part of the world the highest density marketplace.
    • There will be extremes of income - destitute to immensely wealthy
    • There will be a rapidly growing consumer base
    • There will be great demand for the world's resources
    • There will be intense global competition for a piece of both countries' expanding markets
    • There are significant risks of an AIDS pandemic among the poor
  • Europe may have significant social problems with the great Muslim influx as well as significant strains on many countries' social programs
    • Europe will benefit from relatively cheap Muslim labor
    • Europe will be distracted by social unrest
  • The U.S. will continue to have an increasing Hispanic population
    • There will be growing pressure to "Quebecize"... create a side-by-side society rather than an integrated one
    • There will be pressures on social support programs as a lower percentage of the population seeks college educations... or even graduates from high school
    • The economy will remain strong due to population growth, but manufacturing will be a smaller percentage of the total economy and more focus on the service sector
    • There is a great likelihood that the U.S. will begin to look more to Latin and South American markets for reciprocal trade (my conclusion) as the Hispanic population increases
It is not unreasonable to accept the possibility of an "Americas" focus emerging as the situation becomes more chaotic in Europe and Asia.

I believe the political and population dynamics will lead to the following:
  • The U.S. will become increasingly disenchanted with involvement in Muslim-initiated issues which will dominate the European and Russian areas and will force Europe and Russia to have greater roles in addressing Islamic activism
  • The U.S. citizens, businesses, and politicians will become increasingly disenchanted with lopsided trade balances and unethical practices by China and curtail efforts to be a major part of China's markets
  • The U.S. will increasingly see India as the key player in its Asian trade efforts and promote Indian development to offset both the Muslim and Chinese influences.
  • The U.S. will see Latin and South America as "natural" trading partners and increase efforts to build greater ties politically and economically.
FYI...
APPROXIMATE MILES FROM CHICAGO
Mexico City
1700
Rio de Janeiro
5300
Caracas
2500
Buenos Aires
5600
Paris
4100
Beijing
6600
Munich
4500
Hong Kong
7800
Moscow
5000
Bombay
8100

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“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
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FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)