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Friday, June 15, 2007

Measuring Temperatures

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Recently, I posted information regarding a grass-roots effort started by Anthony Watts who started examining the locations of the weather monitoring stations that record official temperatures. This effort first came to my attention when Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr. at Climate Science posted it to his site.

Since then, the attention to the condition of these monitoring stations has grown. I happened to be working on my porch the other evening when I noticed a significant discrepancy between the reported temperature and that being measured by the thermometer on my porch. After sunset the variance became much smaller. I speculated that there may be conditions around the local reporting sites that overstated the temperatures... possibly the Urban Heat Island effect. If the reporting sites are situated where the surroundings can absorb or reflect heat, the stations are likely to exaggerate the actual heat in the air.

For example, right now (10:30 am) the reported temperature is 73 degrees and my porch thermometer reads 72 degrees. I'll concede that it may be the inaccuracy of my thermometer. As the day proceeds, however, the variance increases.

Note this chart from Climate Audit:



The horizontal axis is in minutes from midnight (took me a few minutes to figure that out). This plots the difference in temperature readings just varying the coatings on the weather station. It does not demonstrate the effect of locating the station above asphalt or next to buildings or parked vehicles.

I can't really explain why air temperatures (black line) are higher in the pre-dawn and post-sunset hours than the stations. Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit may be able to shed light on that. You may want to go to the link above the chart to read the many comments regarding this issue.
My own observations parallel Steve's in that pre-dawn and post-sunset hour readings on the porch are higher than the reporting station. That may be due to some heat trapped by the house radiated out to the porch.

Southern facing porch


Area surrounding porch

The thermometer is located just to the left of this picture's edge and at the top of the screen. Therefore, the readings are always in the shade and essentially open-air. This, it seems to me, represents a "true" temperature reading for the location.
The point of all of this is that with weather data recording and real estate, the important factor seems to be... location, location, location.
If, as Anthony Watts' effort shows, weather monitoring stations are poorly located and giving exaggerated heat readings due to Urban Heat Island effects, then the whole contention of recent global warming (corresponding to expansion of Urban Heat Islands around weather stations) is brought into serious question... especially when recent data is compared to data many decades ago that were captured under conditions closer to that of my porch.
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CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)