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Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Politics 2007

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The U.S. presidential candidates are beginning to take up more of the news.

My take: right now there is a lot of party posturing, but little that appeals to me personally.

Why? Because there is too much focus on "fluff" and "bluff" and not enough about what this nation needs to address. What are the issues?

Middle East - ostensibly about fighting terrorists, but more about ensuring the world's flow of oil is not disrupted. If we let Iraq fall into chaos or under the thumb of Iran, then it is an easy next step for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to follow. The U.S. could adapt.


Total Imports of Petroleum (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Apr-07 Mar-07 YTD 2007 Apr-06 Jan - Apr 2006
CANADA 2,475 2,305 2,424 2,238 2,266
MEXICO 1,572 1,749 1,601 1,750 1,805
SAUDI ARABIA 1,485 1,244 1,378 1,595 1,443
VENEZUELA 1,412 1,285 1,311 1,393 1,485
NIGERIA 948 1,346 1,135 1,098 1,211
ALGERIA 798 727 718 543 528
IRAQ 562 523 488 531 498
RUSSIA 547 455 400 218 239
ANGOLA 526 708 571 419 463
UNITED KINGDOM 386 292 285 315 252
VIRGIN ISLANDS 322 349 353 239 283
BRAZIL 246 234 222 169 167
NORWAY 198 164 150 206 205
KOREA, SOUTH 184 164 136 106 65
ECUADOR 159 191 202 319 295


It would be tough with 20% of our imports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, but the U.S. would work out the problems. It certainly would cause a deep recession for awhile, but we would recover.
My sense is that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans would let the Middle East fall under the thumb of an unfriendly Iran.

Immigration - neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have come to grips with the real issue... law enforcement. Both parties are looking for an escape valve from the present situation. A few of the candidates have addressed this.

Energy - Related to the Middle East, but distinctly its own issue. Government interference with the marketplace has led to bad choices (for example, ethanol which is ruining the corn market) and real development of feasible alternatives. Not much discussion here... all of it focused on the red herring of global warming.

Economy - is it all sunshine and roses as the Republicans portray or the end of the U.S. working class as the Democrats say? How do we address... do we address... the massive trade imbalances and the potential for greater inflation and unemployment? Why is the housing market shot with 6% mortgages? Possibly because the jobs that provide income for people who buy houses are in China? Possibly because total economic numbers don't reflect the widening gap between economic strata?
It seems these days that more money is made from manipulation than manufacturing. [hedge funds?]
I'm interested to hear more.

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CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)