Friday, September 28, 2007

Hemispheric Climate Oscillations and Other Things To Ignore


With all of the uproar caused by Steven McIntyre's analysis of NASA/NOAA's temperature records and the revelation that not only don't climate models fit observations, but the data used in those models may well be improperly manipulated by NASA/NOAA itself... it may have occurred to some that any conclusions drawn from the data and the models may be unreliable ;-).

Sure, that's an understatement... if you hadn't already guessed.
There certainly is evidence that the decade of the 90s and this decade are warmer than the decades of the 60s and 70s which were cooler than the decades of the 30s and 40s which were warmer than the decades of the teens and 20s.
Is there a pattern developing here?
But when you look beyond that there appears to be a north-south pattern to the changes as well. Quite honestly, given the sad shape of weather monitoring stations and the re-siting that seems to occur so often, it seems that the records are best seen as approximations of the temperature conditions around the world... which is evidenced by NASA/NOAA's continual attempts to "correct" the actual records.
The north-south pattern was evidenced in the first climatalarmist episode in the 70s when the northern hemisphere was cited as evidence of an impending ice age. Watch the video on the sidebar under the heading: MINDS CHANGE - TACTICS DON'T. Then, the southern hemisphere was just fine.

The current climatalarmist episode cites the northern hemisphere warming, including northern polar ice reduction, as evidence of the impending steam bath age(?). The problem now is that the southern hemisphere has shown signs of cooling with snow in Brazil and thickening ice in Antarctica.
So, let's review the points here:
  • Weather monitoring stations have not been properly maintained in the majority of sites surveyed [see link above] and in most countries around the world the sites have serious recordkeeping problems.
  • Temperature histories are being revised by NASA/NOAA in ways that appear to be unjustified in many instances
  • U.S. temperature history of record high temperatures [more of which were supposed to result from global warming] shows an oscillating pattern more than the upward trendline of "average temperatures" calculated from these questionable stations and manipulated data [although the revised approach to global warming is that the warming is from fewer cold days rather than more record hot days].
  • The previous climatalarmist projection was for an ice age based on northern hemisphere observations not supported by southern hemisphere observations
  • The present climatalarmist projection is for accelerating global warming based on northern hemisphere observations not supported by southern hemisphere observations.
In non-climatalarmist fields, this manipulating approach to supporting ones position is called "cherrypicking."


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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
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“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates


SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
[Image from:]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)