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Saturday, January 09, 2010

Another Weather Curiosity

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UPDATE

There may be more to this story. We'll give NCDC a chance to respond.

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I was going through the 2009 records at the National Climatic Data Center and noticed that there were no new all-time low monthly records set during January 2009. That seemed curious to me because I recalled reading this:

Tuesday, February 10, 2009
New Maine and New England All-Time Cold Record Confirmed

By Giselle Goodman, Maine Portland Press Herald - Maine Today

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey and Maine State Climate Office announced today that a minus-50 reading in northwestern Maine held up to scientific scrutiny. That beats Maine’s old record of 48 below zero set in 1925 in Van Buren, and ties the record for coldest temperature recorded in New England. That reading was made in 1933 in Bloomfield, Vt.

The record on New Hampshire’s Mount Washington is minus -47. Maine’s minus-50 reading was made on Jan. 16 at a remote site along the Big Black River near the Quebec border as the region was in the grip of a blast of arctic air.

By the way after a thaw this week, cold air will return starting Friday to the nation. Watch for lots of cold and snow probably the rest of the month.

image

See story here. Don’t expect it to receive a lot of national media coverage.

So I checked back to some older NCDC news and found this as part of the January 2009 NCDC overview:
Several minimum temperature records were set this month (see below), including a pending new state record minimum of -50°F (-45.3°C) recorded on the 16th at Big Black River, ME.
Apparently that confirmed record may have been tossed along with another one in Illinois which was disallowed because it wasn't an "official" site, but had been calibrated the day before.

I've written to the NCDC for some clarification. The first quarter reporting seems to be missing data from thousands of stations, so it is possible that the Maine station data wasn't added in. There are about 185K to 190K stations reporting each month. Last January had about 150K, February dropped way down to about half of normal at 92K, and March was up to 148K. April showed a recovery to 177K and by May the full complement of around 190K stations were reporting... or included in the reports.

Of course, you all remember how cold last winter was... don't you? Well, I don't have the data, but it was. When an organization is dealing with as much data as is generated for the U.S. weather... much less global weather... it is reasonable to expect occasional glitches. I have no indication that there is any "East Anglia-ing" with the data. This seems to be a systemic problem for a period of months. But it should be corrected if possible.

By the way, it also appears that the October and November 2009 monthly all-time record high temperature data may have an issue. There were exactly the same number of reporting stations... 186,578... for both months. While that may seem reasonable, it is generally not the rule with the NCDC records which usually vary by a few thousand each month. It seems more likely that October records may have been input for November as well which could certainly overstate temperatures.

Odd, but I seem to recall another distraction around the end of November or early December when these records were run.

I'll let you know what the NCDC response is when I get it.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

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February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)