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Monday, January 09, 2012

The Military Strategy Of The Commander In Chief

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President Obama and former CIA Director and currently Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, announced sweeping changes to the U.S. military.

Now that the Middle East has become an international peace zone, the President wants to draw down U.S. land forces and shift high-tech resources to the Asian front where massive hostilities with China are considered a foregone conclusion.  The focus will be on the use of this  high-tech approach designed to intimidate the several million man Chinese armed forces.

In Tom Clancy's SSN fashion, China is seen to be the logical source of future threats to the U.S. and the rest of the world... once it has drained every cent of the world's wealth through selling low-priced toys that cannot be manufactured anyplace else but China and built up its army, navy, air force, space force, and Modern Warfare force.  This will be followed by the takeover of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Los Angeles unless the U.S. can do something... anything... maybe. [STRATEGY ONE: WE CAN DOWNPLAY PRESENT ACTUAL THREATS AND HOSTILITIES TO FOCUS ON POSSIBLE ONES]
As part of the strategy to contain China, the U.S. has decided to give all of its anti-missile secrets to Russia in the hope that the Russians will not join China against it.  This stroke of military genius follows an obscure Central Asian strategist who attempted to build his long-forgotten country's security by giving away military information to Attila the Hun on the premise that Attila would not fear them if they showed their good intentions.  Attila did not fear them.

Meanwhile, President Obama is also encouraging more U.S. corporations to invest in China saying, "The Chinese need technology transfer, legal or otherwise, to ensure that they will be able to continue supplying us all of the things that we currently make for ourselves.  The U.S. cannot morally keep either its military or civilian technology secrets from those who want them."  This policy, of course, will not apply to U.S. citizens who attempt to obtain such secrets... especially military secrets.  They will be tried for espionage. [STRATEGY TWO: IGNORANCE IS THE ROOT OF ALL PROBLEMS SO WE JUST NEED TO BE MORE FORTHCOMING WITH OUR SECRETS TO OUR COMPETITORS AND ADVERSARIES]

Some nations and three people in the U.S. have expressed concern about President Obama's notion that the hostilities in the Middle East are over.  They note that the precipitous withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq followed by negotiations to turn over Afghanistan to the Taliban (as long as they really promised to be really good) might have been grounded less in reason and more in simply being tired of the whole thing.  Meanwhile, President Obama urged Israel to consider Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinians to be simply good neighbors who want "to take down the fence that separates them."  He also noted that his Administration plans to stand behind Israel 100%... way behind... completely out of the picture behind. [STRATEGY THREE: IF WE APPEAR TO MAKE A REALLY GOOD EFFORT, IT IS APPROPRIATE TO NOT COMPLETE THE EFFORT]
The U.S. military should be able to ensure national security with smaller conventional ground forces, the U.S. president said. He vowed to get rid of "outdated Cold War-era systems" [nuclear weapons, missiles, bombers] while investing in the capabilities needed for the future, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as counterterrorism, among others. [source] 
It appears we will watch adversaries into submission.

The President hopes that these measures will free up to $1 trillion over the next decade.  Said the President, "We'll miss a few things, such as a standing army, but that is a small price to pay for Middle East peace and ensuring that my rounds of golf in Hawaii are not threatened by hoards of Chinese seamstresses overrunning the islands."  [STRATEGY FOUR: MILITARY STUFF IS REALLY BOTHERSOME SO MAKING THE MILITARY MUCH SMALLER FREES UP MY TIME]



My, doesn't Gen. Dempsey look pleased?


All right.  There was some tongue-in-cheek in this post... but I'm not laughing... and neither should you.  Read the links in this post and you'll understand more.

See also:
TUESDAY, JANUARY 03, 2012Snatching Defeat

2012 IS HERE

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
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The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)