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Friday, September 07, 2007

An Iraqi Speaks Out

SEARCH BLOG: IRAQ

As promised several weeks ago, this is a guest post by an Iraqi-American woman who has family in Iraq.

Since the current Iraq situation is a complicated problem, it needs a complicated multi-avenue solutions. As complicated as this might be, it is as simple as this:

Just like a person who has many diseases been treated from all of them at once, Iraq has many complicated diseases. If you start treating one disease, the other will grow and get out of hand. You have to cure all diseases at once in order to get swift benefits.
Now lets get to the solutions without the blame game which has been going nowhere while our troops and innocent Iraqi civilians are paying unnecessary heavy prices.

The following is my scenario of the solution package. I lived half of my life in Baghdad and half of it in the USA. Melting my both perspectives I think is best to get to resolution.

1. SECURE IRAQ BORDERS, NOW:
Among all other obvious measures, this includes continuously flying over the borders to halt any penetration to the country

2. RECRUIT ALL THE IRAQI EX-MILITARY COMMANDERS:
I believe they are very loyal to their country than to a specific political figure. Let them call on their old military units to come back to duty to serve their country and not a specific leader. Iraqi soldiers believe in their military commanders, trust them and have a great respect for them. Those commanders and their units will be the only logical way to clean the streets of Baghdad and other Iraqi cities and towns from the different gang groups, insurgents and militias.

3. REFORM NEW GOVERNMENT:
If you want to clean the country from violence, you need to clean the government first. The new government should have well known figures who Iraqis trust.

4. ORGANIZE A ONE DAY CURFEW:
I remember during the Census Day in Iraq, recruited groups visited every single residential unit in the country in an effort to interview citizens to make sure that their ballots are filled out without improper information. I think if this can happen, then we can use the same format and recruit security groups all over Iraq. Then on one day curfew, they go door to door to make sure who is accounted for and who is not. This will include making sure that the occupants of each housing unit have the proper Property Title. All houses have to be returned to their owners. We can do a lot of things during that day. Of course, the government would have mailed each housing unit comprehensive forms to examine and fill out so they be ready on that day. This includes updated photographs and fingerprinting.

5. RELIGIOUS LEADERS SUMMIT:
To have all Iraqi religious leaders meet and put their differences aside in an effort to send a powerful and firm message to the Iraqis not to let their differences conquer them. Those leaders should also put pressure on the government to change the I.D. card to be issued without the listing of sectarian affiliations. The religious leaders also should facilitate the return of people to their houses after all the sectarian segregation.

6. START SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRAMS, NOW:
Part of solving the crisis, the Iraqi Society is in desperate need of social rehabilitation and economic solutions. Start employing Iraqis to build their country instead of getting foreign contractors to do that. No better way to build Iraq except with the hands of its own people. Not to mention that this is very therapeutical to the society. We cannot wait until the violence is over for such programs to start.

7. RESTORE THE INFRASTRUCTURE
I don't think I need to describe the horrible situation of the infrastructure. It needs rebuilding on high gear.
Electricity
Water
Sewage System
Roads & Bridges

8. LIKE ANY AMERICAN CITIES:
We have to help Iraqis start (for real) rebuilding the followings:
Hospitals: Remodel all hospitals and supply them with the state of the art medical equipments and supplies.
Give incentives to Iraqi professionals (doctors, professors, engineers, etc) to return back to their country to help in its rebuilding.
Schools: Remodel and secure schools on all levels
Department Stores: We have to start NOW supplying the entire country with major department stores just like Wall Marts, Costco, Home Depot, CVS. Iraqis are in desperate need for all necessary consumer goods and medicine to feel like they are been treated as human beings again.

9. MAINTAIN THE PRESENCE OF U.S. MILITARY TROOPS AND EXTRA HUMANITARIAN GROUPS IN ITS FULL CAPACITY:
This will be the only way the U.S. can contribute to having such diverse plan of action be enforced and get done in a short period of time. The Iraqi government and military cannot do this alone.

10. FIND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TO THE IRAQI REFUGEE CRISES.
There are many kinds of refugees. We are not talking about the Iraqis who call themselves refugees, yet they are living well outside their country. We are talking about the ones who are thriving to get food and basic needs on a daily basis.

I hope that my plan of action can be heard all over the world and that it can be implemented.

May Peace Be With All Of You.
An Iraqi-American Woman
[No new posts until Monday]
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Start Of The Fall

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER



Summer is ending in Michigan. Not officially until later this month, but Labor Day marked the start of the end.

This weekend the apple cider mills open up and people are looking toward the autumn pleasures. By early next week, summer weather is moving out and early autumn weather moving in.

Time to put away sweat bands and pull out the sweaters.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Positive Equals Negative and Vice Versa

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

The latest doublespeak coming out of Washington is from Sen. Charles Schumer who now insists that the U.S. military "surge" is not working because the reduction of violence is only coincidental and concomitant with the military action, not caused by it [and because he said it wasn't going to work and if it worked it wasn't because it was the right thing to do].

Apparently, the Iraqis in areas with increased U.S. military presence are helping to reduce the violence. That's bad because, as Sen. Schumer says: "And the fallacy of the President's new policy is just amazing. Are we placing our faith in the future of Iraq in the hands of some tribal leaders who at the moment dislike al Qaeda more than they dislike us? Make no mistake about it. They're no friends of Americans."
Fine, tribal leaders made a choice when they were given a choice. If the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then the tribal leaders have decided that the Americans are their friends.

Meanwhile, according to the BBC, in Germany "authorities are hunting for about 10 more suspects believed to have helped the three men held for allegedly plotting massive bomb attacks. The Islamist plotters were targeting US facilities in Germany, officials said. The 10 sought are "Germans, Turks and other nationalities," a top security official, August Hanning, told German ARD television on Thursday. Germany announced on Wednesday that it had arrested two Germans and a Turk suspected of planning huge bombings."
The arrests are only coincidental and concomitant with anti-terrorism efforts. The persons who were arrested only made themselves available for arrest because they had a change of heart after realizing that Islam was the religion of peace.
Meanwhile, President Bush and Chinese leader, Hu Jintao, held talks described as "friendly" by Mr. Bush.
The "friendly" talks are only coincidental and concomitant with Chinese efforts to influence U.S. presidential elections through illegal campaign financing [Clinton-Hsu], Chinese efforts to assist Iran to deliver atomic weapons by selling missile technology, and countless sales of unsafe products to the U.S. [the latest seems to be fuses that cause fires].
Sometimes, it seems that those who have an agenda will be willing to turn the world on its head while saying they are righting the ship.

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Golfing with God

SEARCH BLOG: GOLF

In the same way that other recreational golfers butcher the game of golf, I manage to be consistently inconsistent which gives me great frustration... so much so that I feel as if I need God as cart companion to have a decent round.

But as the saying goes, the Lord helps those who help themselves.

So last week, I went to the driving range and started analyzing the various parts of my golf swing.

The first thing I noticed was my setup was never the same. Sometimes the ball was too far forward [toward the target] and sometimes too far back [away from the target]. Sometimes I stood too close to the ball and sometimes I stood too far away.

The next thing I noticed was that the face of the club head [that part that hits the ball] was sometime pointing to the right of the target when I made contact [open] and sometimes pointing to the left of the target [closed]. I wanted the club face pointing at the target.

Then I noticed I held the club handle in different ways. Sometimes my hands fitting together tightly and sometimes there was a gap between them.

Then I noticed that sometimes I would hit the ground before the ball and other times I would barely hit the top of the ball.
It was obvious that I really needed God in my golf cart. But I worked on some things that started to make my hitting better and more consistent.
First, I picked up the club in my left hand in such a way that the club face was aligned facing the target... alignment.

Then I gripped the club in such a way that my right hand locked snugly against my left hand... lockdown.

Then I stood upright with my club held in front of me with my arms relaxed and straight so that when I moved downward and forward I was in the correct stance to launch the ball... launch position.

The last pre-swing point was to check my aim to be sure my body was parallel to the line of my swing... aim.

All that was left was to swing from this pre-set position and hit the ball... hit.
I discovered that while God may help those who help themselves... ALLAH definitely helps my golf game:
  • Alignment ... of the club face
  • Locking ... the hands together in a snug grip that keeps the arms in a good position
  • Launch ... position just the right distance from the ball
  • Aim ... check before swinging so that the ball starts in the right direction
  • Hit ... the ball trusting that it will be struck well and go straight.
Today I played a round 7 strokes under my average. I missed some putts that could have made the round even better, but nothing seems to help putts... not even ALLAH.

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Wednesday, September 05, 2007

What's Good For The Goose Is Not Good For The Gander

SEARCH BLOG: EDUCATION

This photo on the front page of the Detroit Free Press caught my attention:



What caught my attention?

Well, suppose this had been a picture of a middle-aged or even 30-year old male teacher and the student had been female....
The teacher would not have remained a teacher very long.
I have been told by a few male teachers that they would never... ever... under any circumstances... touch a student... male or female... even to provide comfort or for any other reason... because they know they would be fired.
So what gives the Governor the right to do so?

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Tuesday, September 04, 2007

U.N. Climate Agreement Will Change The Way We Live

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

The UN has reached an agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions by 25 - 40% [versus 1990 levels] by 2020.

First, let's point out that the target is only 12 years from now. The image below is a stacked area chart which displays the cumulative levels of CO2 output.

Just so you understand... a 25-40% reduction from 1990 levels would require cutting emissions in half in 12 years... basically shutting down the world's economies.

To be fair, the UN only wants the industrialized economies to cut back that much, so the chart probably overstates the reduction. On the other hand, a large portion of China's contribution to CO2 emissions comes from underground coal fires [not included in the chart below]... which may match U.S. total output. So, it might be reasonable to put more of the onus on China.
So, with China and India gearing up industrial production and Europe and the U.S. balking from using more nuclear power, where do these savings come from.

Well, for one thing, transportation modes will have to change:

Air conditioning will be replaced by more natural living styles:


Heating will have to be replaced with insulation:

Electricity will have to be used only for essentials such as communication:

Of course, government officials will have to conserve, too... maybe more modest government facilities?

Wait, forget that last one... it will never happen. Just the rest of us will have to change.
Just so you are clear on this... the organization that proposed what has become a non-binding target is the same organization that disregarded vast amounts of scientific evidence that CO2 is not a critical element in climate change [note that "global warming" is being replaced by the more nebulous term as it becomes harder to defend the IPCC original positions].
The U.N. has shown repeatedly that it is the safehouse of extremists of all manner... and that little of value has ever come from it.
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Monday, September 03, 2007

Hillary Funding Scandal Follow-up

SEARCH BLOG: CLINTON

No comment needed from me about this.

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Brave Palestinian Militants Defend Themselves

SEARCH BLOG: ISLAM

Brave Palestinian "militants" fought a heated battle against a fierce and determined Israeli force led by 15 babies at a day care center in Sderot. [via Jihad Watch]

Although neither side suffered casualties, the militants celebrated the fact that at least one of the six rockets they fired at the infidel baby force landed in the school yard... showing that the Palestinians are not about to be intimidated by anyone and have the means to fight back.
The brave Palestinians, shouting "Allah Akbar," later said that they would stand just as resolutely even if the Israelis send 30 babies against them.

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Sunday, September 02, 2007

Read To Them

SEARCH BLOG: EDUCATION and DYSFUNCTIONAL

I had a conversation with my youngest son's girlfriend. She just received her bachelor's degree and has been working in a pre-school with children as young as two.

I asked what they did with two-year olds and she said they had all sorts of activities including geography lessons. That greatly surprised me. But she assured me that they actually learned to identify places on maps.
Sending your child to a pre-school is becoming fairly common. Yet, many parents simply can't afford that luxury.
My wife quit work after our first son was born; we adjusted our spending patterns. We also focused very early on spending time in a way that would benefit our son for the rest of his life; we read to him.
Cost is never an issue when educating a child. We bought Dr. Seuss books for a few dollars each... one every couple of weeks... and a couple of Muppet puppets [which dates us]. Then, the "Muppets would read" the Dr. Seuss books to our son.

By the time he was 3-years old, he was "reading" along with the puppets. I'm not sure when his memorization turned into actual reading, but it was very early on. He never seemed to get tired of the ritual of reading with the puppets after dinner. He would select a book, pick up the puppets and bring them to me, and we would listen together as the Muppets read.
I could have read my newspaper, or watched TV, or just relaxed on my own. But this was my opportunity to have my son spend time with me and I knew it was just as important for me as it was for him.
I replicated this ritual with my other two sons. Often the next oldest would join in and read to the younger one using the Muppet puppets in the same way I did. They were creating a tradition of sharing and learning together that they still have today... as much as is possible for grown men to have. The oldest has move out of state, but the two younger sons have their own thriving business together. They are still sharing and learning.
We didn't spend a fortune to create a love of reading and learning with our sons. We spent our time. That "investment" has returned the greatest rewards.
I have written about dysfunctional subcultures in which education simply doesn't matter.
Unlike, many who wish to blame our school systems for the failure of children within these subcultures, I hold the schools blameless. There is only one reason for a child's failure to become educated and prepared for life: his parents.
Unfortunately, the children become dysfunctional adults who create children who become dysfunctional adults.
If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you always got.
Some children will escape the cycle. They will forge a bond with a teacher or some adult who will care and nurture. But too many will simply replicate.
Stupidity has its own rewards.
It's been said many times by many people: "read to your children."
The only reason for not doing so is terminal stupidity.
School is in session.

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Saturday, September 01, 2007

This Option Not Available

SEARCH BLOG: SPORTS

Nifong - One Day Is Enough?

SEARCH BLOG: LAW

From Newsday:

When the judge read the sentence Friday evening, Mary Ellen Finnerty of Garden City broke down and cried -- Mike Nifong, the disbarred Durham County, N.C., district attorney who tried to put her son in jail on false rape accusations, was going to jail himself.

Nifong was sentenced to one day behind bars for criminal contempt of court in connection with his attempted prosecution last year of Finnerty's son Collin and two other Duke University lacrosse players.

"It does give us closure," said Collin Finnerty's father, Kevin, who attended the hearing in Raleigh with his wife. "I think the three boys have their reputations back."

...

The jail sentence, however short, represents yet another blow to the tarnished reputation of Nifong, who was also stripped of his law license by the state bar in June.

Thomas Metzloff, a professor at the Duke University School of Law who followed the Nifong case closely, called the sentence "unprecedented."

"This just doesn't happen," he said. "This was a very important moment because it showed that the court system really cared about what happened in this case."
Let's see, malicious prosecution, prosecutorial misconduct, withholding evidence, denial of rights... that's worth about a day in the pokey.

How about 6 hours for embezzlement? And 3 hours for perjury? And 15 seconds for wife abuse?
Will he get 12 hours off for good behavior? Another 3 hours off if he finishes all of his dinner?
Sounds like North Carolina is the place to be... if you want to avoid paying the price for your actions.
Nifong took away a year of life from 3 young men. How about a 3-year sentence?
The message it sends to prosecutors is that no matter how nefarious their conduct, they are guaranteed a slap on the pinky... at worst.

Let's hope that civil court provides more justice than North Carolina criminal court.

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Friday, August 31, 2007

15th Warmest July

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING


From NOAA

National Overview:

July Temperature Highlights

  • For the contiguous United States, July 2007 was the 15th warmest July since records began in 1895. The monthly mean temperature was 1.4°F (0.8°C) above the 20th century average of 74.3°F (23.5°C).

  • However, the persistent atmospheric pattern that brought cooler than average temperatures to the East contributed to record and near-record warmth in the West. The warmest July since statewide records began in 1895 occurred in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. Nevada had its second warmest July and Arizona and Utah their third warmest Julys on record. Alaska was 1.2°F (0.7°C) warmer than the 1971—2000 mean in July.

  • There were 11 days of triple digit temperatures in Missoula, Montana in July, almost double the previous record of 6 days for the month. In Boise, Idaho it was the hottest month ever, and the average high temperature for the month was a remarkable 98.6°F (37°C), more than 9°F (5°C) above the monthly average.

  • The cooler-than-average July temperatures in the heavily populated eastern U.S. helped push down residential energy needs for the nation as a whole. Using the Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI - an index developed at NOAA to relate energy usage to climate), the nation's residential energy demand was approximately 4 percent lower than what would have occurred under average climate conditions for the month.
Is NOAA now marketing global warming? 15th warmest? Is that supposed to be significant? Now look at the map below to see how it affected the population of the U.S.

Compare that with a relief map of the U.S. and it looks as if all of those weather stations on mountains got hot. Heat really does rise!

[source: University of Texas Library]

So, based on NOAA's calculations, the U.S. was slightly warmer than on average. But when were the 14 warmest Julys? I going to guess that several will be in the 1930s?

Were there any monthly state record high temperatures set [not some shaky average calculation]? No data published yet, but I'm also guessing that the answer is "no."
When you go back over the first six months of the year and then include July, you'll see that 2007 has been remarkably unremarkable. And, as you can see, no scars from runaway, positive-feedback, global warming around here.


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Thursday, August 30, 2007

Clinton Campaign Fund Scandal

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Some people have this visceral dislike for the family-Clinton.

They view their brand of politics as somehow sleazy or unethical if not illegal... smiling-while-they-stab-you-in-the-back kind of politics... beholden-to-unsavory-characters politics... I-can-be-bought kind of politics.
Supporters will dismiss that as sour grapes or character assassination. But, where there's smoke....
Then...

and recently...

and now....
Fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, shame on me; fool me three times, I must be a m*r*n....

Of course, it's only a scandal if you get caught. Otherwise, it is business-as-usual. Try Googling "political funding scandals" and you will see what I mean.

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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

European Backlash - Step 7

SEARCH BLOG: EUROPE and ISLAM

From Yahoo News:

ANKARA, Turkey - A devout Muslim with a background in political Islam won the Turkish presidency on Tuesday, in a major triumph for the Islamic-rooted government after months of confrontation with the secular establishment.

Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul received a majority of 339 votes in a parliamentary ballot and took the oath of office, pledging impartiality and loyalty to Turkey's historic separation of religion and politics. Commanders from the fiercely secular military were conspicuously absent — a decision many saw as a symbolic protest against the decision to elect a president to a post traditionally held by a secular figure.

...

As foreign minister, Gul — who speaks English and Arabic — has cultivated an image as a moderate politician.

In a recent meeting with foreign journalists, Gul said he would make use of his experiences as foreign minister to boost Turkey's European Union bid and make the Turkish presidency more active on the international scene.

"Turkey will be more active; Turkey will be contributing more to world issues," he said.

The EU said the vote "represents a considerable achievement for Turkey and the Turkish people,"

In a statement, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said he hoped the government "will be able to resume work ... to give fresh, immediate and positive impetus" to EU entry talks.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that despite what "the EU" [as stated above] says, the election of an Islamist to the presidency of Turkey is sure to set off alarms around Europe's population, if not governments, for two obvious reasons:
  1. Despite what Mr. Gul says, Europeans are growing increasingly antagonistic toward Islam and Islamists, in particular.
  2. There is the latent possibility of instability in Turkey if the military, which is "devoutly" secular in its orientation, decides that Mr. Gul's government is a threat to the secular tradition.
I would be greatly surprised if this development enhances Turkey's opportunity to join the EU.

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Tuesday, August 28, 2007

The Reason Global Warming Timing Has Been Delayed?

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

By way of Dr. John Ray, Blue Crab Boulevard reports:

Kind of interesting. France has had the third worst summer in recorded history, only 1954 and 1977 were more miserable. Most of the nation has been much wetter and considerably cooler than historical averages.

PARIS (AFP) - It's official: France's rainy, grey and generally cold summer has been the worst for the past 30 years, the weather service said Friday, but tourist arrivals were the highest in five years.

July and August were wet across two-thirds of the country while the Mediterranean region was too dry, said Frederic Nathan, meteorologist at Meteo France.

"Yes we can say that it was a rotten summer," said Nathan. But the summers of 1954 and 1977 were worse, he added……

……Rainfall in northwestern France reached record levels, with cities like Le Havre registering 21 days of rain in July, beating the previous record of 16 in 1980.

In the northern city of Caen in Normandy, the weather service registered 592 hours of sunshine from May 1st to August 21, well below the average of 809 hours.

Temperatures on the Atlantic coast have been on average two or three degrees Celsius below seasonal averages, said Jean-Marc Le Gallic from Meteo France.

Britain has also had a miserably wet and cold summer. Interesting, no?

I guess that's why the latest prediction is for global warming to actually start after 2009.

As Annie sings:
The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There'll be sun!

Just thinkin' about
Tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
'Til there's none!

When I'm stuck a day
That's gray,
And lonely,
I just stick out my chin
And Grin,
And Say,
Oh!

The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A day
A way!
And then we'll all die of heat stroke....

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Monday, August 27, 2007

0.15 Deg C Does Not “Matter”

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Steve McIntyre, at Climate Audit, does an analysis of the recorded U.S. average temperature change from 1920 to present which amounts to 0.21° C. He then uses the words of Drs. Schmidt and Hansen of NASA that the recent downward adjustments of 0.15° C to the temperature records does not matter to make the point that the minuscule change over 80+ years is irrelevant.

I'd like to point out that the starting point is relevant. If you use 1880, a relatively cold period in the U.S., then you go from a low point in the record's oscillation to a high point. I suggest that what is shown from the record is, at best, a flat trend with a high point in the 1930s and another high point in the late 20th century. Whatever warming that may have occurred is primarily in the moderation of cold temperatures from the coldest periods of the weather history... or faulty siting of weather stations, a subject that has been discussed in detail at Anthony Watts' site, that give the illusion of a moderation of cold temperatures.
It's an old trick of marketers and sales reps to pick a starting point that makes whatever they are presently doing look as different [positive] as possible. It's not necessarily good science, however.

Nevertheless, Steve McIntyre's point is a very good one.

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Saturday, August 25, 2007

Good Things End

Climate Science Is Retiring - Thank You To Everyone For Your Participation!

Filed under: Uncategorized — Roger Pielke Sr. @ 7:00 am

I want to thank everyone who has contributed to the diverse subjects on Climate Science! The site has been active since July 2005. However, the maintenance and preparation for the weblog requires quite a bit of time, and I have decided to move onto other activities. I have also extensively presented my perspective on climate science. The weblog will remain available as an archive on our research website.

After the remaining weblogs have posted (on September 2), the last weblog will identify where the archive can be found. Comments, of course, will not be accepted after that time, but the entire history of the weblog will be available for those who are interested.

Markets Go Up On Perception of Improvement

SEARCH BLOG: DJIA and HOUSING

CNN reports that good news propelled the DJIA up 143 points on Friday.

  • New home sales were up
  • Durable goods orders were up
... except for Michigan, of course.

Recently I wrote that the Fed was unlikely to take quick action on the prime rate because the drop in the DJIA had to be looked at from a longer perspective. The Fed took actions to prop up financial institutions, but still feels the economy is going well enough... and inflation is still enough of a concern... to be cautious about lowering rates.
I'm not sure what might be causing the new home sales to be increasing elsewhere, especially in light of the increasing foreclosure rates. Perhaps it is the automobile-like incentives being heaped on new homes to try to move them. Big discounts, options thrown in for nothing, "we'll buy your old house from you, if you buy a new one from us."
I'm glad to see the markets holding ground since I have significant investments. But I'm not yet convinced that the good news will hold sway. We've seen those seasonally adjusted annual rates for housing revised downward for May after they were published.
Besides, one should also point out that the July 2007 rate was 10% below July 2006. That might be reason to mute the cheering a little.
Of course, it might just be a matter of perception rather than perspective.

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Traded Away

SEARCH BLOG: FAIR TRADE and FREE TRADE

I was trying to explain this to my wife the other evening as we took a walk. She just didn't think it was fair at all. Neither did I, but it's hard to argue against a "free lunch," isn't it?

Pat Buchanan doesn't think so.
But now we have to call Pat a "protectionist."
The real question that must be asked is if it is so good for us to be on the receiving end of cheap goods, why are countries like China and Japan so willing to "subsidize" us?
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Friday, August 24, 2007

Good Fences Make Good Neighbors

SEARCH BLOG: ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

This story is making the rounds:

European Union Funds Separation Fence

(IsraelNN.com) Former Mossad agent Gad Shimron reports that while the European Union attacks Israel mercilessly for the partition fence it's building to protect Jewish lives, the EU itself funds and operates a similar fence designed only to protect itself from illegal immigrants.

The fence is located in a Spanish enclave in northwestern Africa, the coastal city of Ceuta just across the Straits of Gibraltar from Spain. Unknown to most of the world, when Spain handed over most of northern Morocco to the newly independent kingdom in 1956, Spain retained Ceuta and Melilla (about 250 kilometers further east) - thus that the European Union is present in Africa as well. Poverty-stricken Moroccans attempting to cross into Ceuta, from where they will then be able to work anywhere in Europe because of the EU's no-checkpoints policy, are stopped in their tracks by the eight-meter-high, double layer fence. Funding for the fence, some 60 million Euros, came from European Union coffers.


Frequent Spanish patrols, together with policemen who do not hesitate to beat potential infiltrators, render crossing the partition a nearly impossible mission - but the needy say they will continue to try. One of the many who are determined to immigrate to Europe said, "Whoever came all this difficult way and reaches the mountains of northern Morocco, opposite the fence of Ceuta, will not give up. You see the lights of Ceuta? As far as we're concerned, that's the Promised Land. The people here are in despair and will do anything to pass over that fence, enter Spain, and from there continue northward and blend in with the other millions of immigrants in Europe."

The EU continues to oppose Israel's fence, constructed to protect against murderous terrorists and suicide bombs - even as it plans to build another fence of its own around Spain's second enclave in northern Africa, the Moroccan town of Melilla. "It appears," concludes Gad Shimron in Maariv today, "that from a European point of view, the ethical aspects of a separation fence are sometimes a matter of geography."
Do as I say; not as I do. Meanwhile, along the Mexican border....

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Thursday, August 23, 2007

The World Must Be Cured

SEARCH BLOG: ISLAMISTS

... of the sickness that did this. Hillary? Nancy? Harry? Obama?

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Another Open Letter to Alan Mulally

SEARCH BLOG: MULALLY

Ford Motor Company continues to struggle in the U.S., although operations elsewhere are doing much better. Your efforts to improve the efficiency at Ford seems to be making headway and, more importantly, if the historical culture of protecting one's turf is being eliminated, then you may expect more lasting positive results.

Most employees want to be part of a winning "team," but in the past the "team players" got T-shirts and recognition plaques... and possibly increases equivalent to the cost of living. The real winners were those who could optimize their positions... the manipulators... even at the cost of those around them.
But it is going to take more than just "team work." It is going to take dedication to having the most competitive and desirable products. For example, you were responsible for renaming the Five Hundred as the Taurus. That's a nice effort at leveraging a great name. But the new Taurus is closer in pedigree to the Crown Victoria than the old Taurus. So, while it may bring some people back to the showrooms [always a good thing], they may take some convincing that they are really looking at a Taurus-type car. Perhaps your "teams" are going to fix that in the next iteration.

One area that Ford historically has been behind competition is its car drivetrains. It's not that Ford can't produce a great engine or transmission, but it choses to offer fairly bland, and surprisingly lower fuel-efficient, powertrains than competitors. The new V-6 engine is an improvement that is long overdue. But don't stop there. Rather than "spinning wheels" on a lot of low-probability technologies such as hydrogen or ethanol that require substantial infrastructure changes, Ford should rapidly expand technologies that have a proven track record in Europe... specifically diesel and turbo-diesel engines.
Two years ago, Mercedes offered a diesel in their sedans for only $1,000 more than their gasoline engines. BMW is moving heavily into turbo-diesels. Audi has a strong diesel offering.
Obviously, these offerings are at the higher end, but there is nothing that says they have to be... as I'm sure you know since Ford offers a turbo-diesel Focus in Europe.

Will people pay for the diesel engine premium? Let's say that I will be standing in line for that Taurus with a turbo-diesel engine... and it doesn't even have to be the hybrid model.

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European Backlash - Step 6

SEARCH BLOG: BACKLASH

Germans are once again in the middle of religious disputes. Centuries ago, it was Catholics against Protestants. Then it was Nazism against Judaism. Now it appears to be a general antipathy toward Muslims in the form of protests against building mosques.

In Cologne [Köln],

Cardinal Joachim Meisner, spiritual leader of the city's Roman Catholics and a close friend of Pope Benedict XVI, has said the proposed mosque leaves him with an "uneasy feeling."
Mosques are more than houses of worship:

"Muslims have come out ... and have become visible," says Claus Leggewie, a political scientist at Germany's University of Giessen who wrote a study on the evolution of the mosque landscape in Germany. "By building expensive, representative mosques, they're sending a message: we want to take part in the symbolic landscape of Germany. We are here and we'll stay here."

Major mosque projects from Cologne, Germany, to Amsterdam to Seville, Spain, have met with fierce opposition and fears that they will serve as breeding grounds for terrorists. Family members of two of the suspects in the Glasgow, Scotland, car bombings this month said the men had been radicalized by Tablighi Jamaat, an Islamic revivalist group with plans for an 18-acre complex near London's 2012 Olympic stadium that would house Europe's largest mosque.

It's beginning to get difficult to discern if it is religion causing cultural problems or cultural differences creating a sharp, negative focus on Islam... or both.
But the concern about mosques is one more aspect of the growing tension in Europe with Muslim immigrants.
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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

New York Always Has To Be Different

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

(CBS) NEW YORK A day after tying the record for the coldest high temperature during the month of August ever in New York City, temperatures were expected only to warm up slightly, before finally climbing back to normal by the end of the week.

The city along with the rest of the tri-state region is feeling the chilly effect of a cold front sweeping through the region, accompanied by cool rain showers.

Tuesday's high temperature in Central Park was just 59 degrees. The normal high for Tuesday was 82 degrees. The normal low was 67.

Forecasters were calling for temperatures to rise to about 66 for the high on Wednesday.

[source]

The Canadian Clipper that came through here late Saturday finally made it there. And even the Urban Heat Island effect wasn't enough to keep the temperatures up.

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Tomorrow: Not So Variable Temperatures

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

On February 27, I proposed there were only two ways for general warming to occur that made sense:

  1. more high temperature extremes
    >
  2. few, if any, new high temperature extremes, but milder low temperatures
    >
The global warming orthodoxy insisted that we should expect option #1.

It was apparent to me that option #1 was simply not happening... at least in the U.S. [and probably Canada, too].

So, now it appears that the strategy is to say that option #2 is, indeed, what is happening. We won't have a lot of high temperature
extremes, but it will just stay warmer longer.

Via
Benny Peiser [email]

Global and Planetary Change, May 2007, 57(1-2):1-15
http://tinyurl.com/yok3gm

Changes in variability and persistence of climate in Switzerland: Exploring 20th century observations and 21st century simulations

Martin Beniston a, and Stéphane Goyette a
A Chair for Climate Research, University of Geneva, Switzerland

Conclusions

This investigation, carried out for a low (Basel) and a high (Saentis) elevation site in Switzerland, has shown that contrary to what is commonly hypothesized climate variability does not necessarily increase as climate warms. Indeed, it has been shown that the variance of temperature has actually decreased in Switzerland since the 1960s and 1970s at a time when mean temperatures have risen considerably. Nevertheless, these findings are consistent with the temperature analysis carried out by Michaels et al. (1998) where their results also do not support the hypothesis that temperatures have become more variable as global temperatures have increased during the 20th century. The principal reason for this reduction in variability is related to the strong increase in the persistence of certain weather patterns at the expense of other types. A simple weather classification scheme has been designed to highlight this point, based on combinations of warm, cold, moist or dry regimes; according to this classification, winter regimes (cold and moist) associated with perturbed synoptic systems have been sharply reduced in the last decades of the 20th century, while warm and dry summer regimes have become the most persistent since the 1970s. In other words, synoptic weather patterns that are associated with high variability are today less frequent than those patterns associated with high persistence, i.e., low variability. Closer investigation of the behavior of surface pressure fields has highlighted the fact that positive pressure anomalies have increased since the 1970s, and that these are well correlated with the exceedances of temperature at both the low and high elevations.
So, what does this mean for the Al Gore orthodoxy? Maybe a little wiggle room as the net of scientific evidence shows that their predictions of catastrophe are politically, not scientifically, based. They can still claim warming has occurred.
Well, some warming has been observed since the cold side oscillation of the flat trend began in the 1960s... but so what? Is that supposed to be a bad thing?


Source


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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Spam Comments

Because spammers like to leave comments that clutter blogs, I have turned on comment moderation.

That means your comment won't appear until I have had a chance to review it for being possible spam.

I don't care if you disagree with my posts, but this is not the place for junk mail. I'll post all legitimate comments.
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Federal Reserve Update - 2

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

On August 13, I wrote:

The Fed Will Act
... if the DJIA reaches 12,000.

That will be approaching a 15% "correction" from the high point [and the wheels will be squeaking too loudly to ignore].

That marks the point where the DJIA is 4% below the beginning of the year. Right now it is still up 3% for the year and just 8% down from the high, so the Fed will just be watching things.

By then, of course, the rest of the country's housing market will look like Michigan's... DOA. New construction will be shut down, foreclosures will be at record levels, and overall economic growth will be less than 2%.
On August 17, I wrote:
As I said on August 13 and today, the Fed is getting nervous, but it is not quite ready to lower interest rates that affect housing or other consumer purchases. Right now it is hoping a bandaid will fix things... it won't.
Today...
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said the impact of ``financial turbulence'' on the broader economy will determine decisions on interest rates.

``Financial market volatility, in and of itself, doesn't require a change in the target federal funds rate,'' Lacker said at a luncheon of the Risk Management Association of Charlotte.

``Interest-rate policy needs to be guided by the outlook for real spending and inflation,'' and markets can change that assessment if they induce changes in growth or prices.
12,000 on the DJIA might indicate a signal of "financial turbulence." So also might a continued diminishing of the housing market and corresponding increase in foreclosures.
Right now the DJIA is treading water over 900 points off its recent high.
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Selected Bloggers

SEARCH BLOG: DIVERSITY

If you haven't availed yourself of the blog links on the right sidebar, I suggest you try them. You will find a rather eclectic mixture of politics, economics, science, and philosophy.

I don't always agree with the positions in these individual blogs, but I value their singular trait: challenging to the reader.
They represent my kind of "diversity"... not-afraid-to-offend diversity.
If you have to say something with which everyone agrees, you haven't said anything of great interest... even if you are "politically correct."
Meanwhile, I have to get ready for golf [late to bed, early to rise, etc.]

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Monday, August 20, 2007

It's Just Weather

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

A couple of days ago I commented that we were having the first hint of autumn around here with a Canadian Clipper that zipped through.

I knew it seemed a bit cool around here... especially with the talk of heat waves in the south... but I didn't realize that we came within 2° F of the all-time recorded low... for that date... for our area.

On average, the nation was pretty much "average."



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No Carbon Left Behind Act

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING and CLIMATE CHANGE

From Benny Peiser email:

Latvia has the lowest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. But, despite being the EU's third poorest country, the European Commission's rulings mean that it must purchase emission quotas from richer and more polluting EU members that have done little to meet their Kyoto commitments. This unbalanced approach is jeopardising the economic development of Latvia and other vulnerable new member states, while old members enjoy a free ride.
--Valdis Dombrovskis, The Guardian, 20 August 2007
From The Heritage Foundation:
Although the federal law gives states the freedom to set standards and create tests, it is highly prescriptive about how AYP [adequate yearly progress] is determined, and these requirements are not always compatible with preexisting state systems. As a result, schools rated highly on the state system can fail to make AYP according to the NCLB. Differences in how each system treats subgroups or standards governing the percentage of students that must be tested cause discrepancies in the ratings. In 2003 an "excellent" rated school in Colorado did not make AYP while others with unsatisfactory ratings cleared the AYP bar. Florida saw three out of four of its "A" rated schools underperforming, according to the NCLB.

No Child Left Behind: Where Do We Go From Here?
Notice any similarities [hint: politics]?

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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Can't Debate Them? Sue Them!

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING and LITIGATION

My wife, who is an avid blog reader, pointed out this one from Flopping Aces which quotes the National Review Online:

Tobacco road [Chris Horner]

A little birdie recently chirped about some usual-suspect state attorneys general preparing a litigation strategy document for/with environmental pressure groups, providing a roadmap for cooperatively replicating the tobacco litigation of a decade ago in the "global warming" context, substituting that projected catastrophe for cancer and "big energy" for tobacco companies.

The point of such exercise would not be to litigate the matter to conclusion — ever more challenging what with forced corrections of the temperature record, recent exposure of the woeful reliability of our own world's most reliable surface measuring network, and of course no global warming in a decade (or, we now know, since 1900 for that matter) — but to extract massive settlements from the energy industry to further fund the trial lawyers, greens and the greens' pet projects. Just imagine the anti-energy campaign that this model would yield! And at no cost, really, except to anyone who uses energy and/or invests in these sleepy "granny stocks". Oh, and the economy.

Given that at least two of the seven requests for information under state freedom of information laws have been received electronically, I am comfortable revealing that a version of the following inquiry has been sent to activist state AGs in California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont, Washington and Massachusetts.

We'll see how what we know squares with what is produced, and go from there, though I have little doubt that some stonewalling will make this a more energy-intensive effort than it should be; but as the tobacco AGs learned, there's usually one party who coughs up the documents at which point the games must come to an end.
Is that what is meant by "the debate is over?"
You have to remember that in law and politics, "proof" means something entirely different from science.


Apparently there is a lot of fog in California and a few other states, too.

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Saturday, August 18, 2007

Hint of Autumn

SEARCH BLOG: AUTUMN

Sure, it is the middle of August... but you can feel it coming. A brisk night and cool morning... temperatures in the 40s. It's just a summer cool front sweeping in from Canada at 20 mph so the weather will be at September high-low averages.

But it's a hint that Labor Day is close and the growing season is ending... and autumn is just around the corner. That means cider and doughnuts and football and brightly colored leaves... and no more of that damned air-conditioning!
Yes, I'm getting ahead of myself, but I really love autumn.


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Friday, August 17, 2007

Federal Reserve Update

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

From CNN
:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve, reacting to concerns about the subprime lending crisis and the volatility in the financial markets that have resulted from it, announced Friday that it is cutting its so-called discount rate temporarily by a half percentage point, to 5.75 percent.

The discount rate is the rate the Federal Reserve banks across the country charge qualified lenders - mainly banks - for temporary loans. It is largely symbolic.

The central bank did not change its more closely watched federal funds rate, which affects rates that consumers pay on various types of loans. That rate remains at 5.25 percent.

The Fed last met Aug. 7 and decided to leave both the federal funds and discount rates unchanged. But since then, stocks have plunged further due to fears that some financial institutions and hedge funds were in serious trouble because of the mortgage meltdown.

As I said on August 13 and today, the Fed is getting nervous, but it is not quite ready to lower interest rates that affect housing or other consumer purchases. Right now it is hoping a bandaid will fix things... it won't.

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The Fed Will Act

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

... if the DJIA reaches 12,000.

That will be approaching a 15% "correction" from the high point [and the wheels will be squeaking too loudly to ignore].

That marks the point where the DJIA is 4% below the beginning of the year. Right now it is still up 3% for the year and just 8% down from the high, so the Fed will just be watching things.
By then, of course, the rest of the country's housing market will look like Michigan's... DOA. New construction will be shut down, foreclosures will be at record levels, and overall economic growth will be less than 2%.
Then even the banking system will recognize that it has more to lose from the stallout than mild inflation. Big Ben will have to stop being "Johnny One Note."
Just to jog your memory, here are a few related posts and DJIA:
Back on December 18 last year I wrote:
It is difficult to get of measure of what the economic big picture is right now. The Christmas season is not over so no real numbers are available for comparison with other years. We know that housing and autos are quite weak. Stable oil prices have been good news as is the Federal Reserve's less aggressive attitude.
I think we are getting a measure of what the economic big picture is right now.

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Thursday, August 16, 2007

The Oceans Are The Problem

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

From Dr. John Ray's blog.

Most shocking of all is their prediction for the year 2100 to be slightly cooler than present day, despite the assumption of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels. Eye-popping indeed. Is carbon-dioxide really so ineffective at warming? A new study by Belgium's Royal Meteorological Institute seems to think so. Its conclusion is that, while CO2 does have some effect, that "it can never play the decisive role attributed to it" in global warming, and that its effects have been grossly overstated.
Oh, those Belgians are just a bunch of deniers.

And if that wasn't enough... check this out in New Scientist.

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Losing Perspective

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY and PERSPECTIVE

It's been a rough 5 days on Wall Street with the DJIA down about 6% and a lot of people getting very worried about their investments.




The whole last month has been a big slide down of over 7%.



The last three months could leave your head spinning with the roller coaster ride if you look too closely.



So maybe we need to step back a bit to add some perspective.... How about a year?



Or maybe 5 years?



This reminds me of some other charts. Of course you need to step back for real perspective.

And then someone might come along and change the data, too.

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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Cooler In The Outlying Areas

SEARCH BLOG: URBAN HEAT ISLAND

Most of us who live in metropolitan areas have heard weather forecasts that go something like this:

Tonight, variable cloudiness with low temperatures in the mid-60s and, in the outlying areas, the mid-50s.
Don't you find it amazing how the founders of all of our large metropolitan areas were able to locate the exact spots that stayed 5-10 degrees warmer at night than the "outlying areas?"
There must have been some natural CO2 vents in those spots.
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New Anti-Iranian Initiative

SEARCH BLOG: IRAN and CHERY

The Chinese company, Chery, will start selling automobiles in Iran.

Based on this video, I have to believe it is a CIA plot to try to get rid of high-ranking government officials... or perhaps it is just Iran's effort at population control.



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Abusing The Law

SEARCH BLOG: LAWSUITS

A story buried in the back of section one had the title: D.C. judge presses his $54M lost pants case. In case you missed it the first time around, the row was about a missing pair of pants.

A judge who lost a $54 million lawsuit against a dry cleaner over a missing pair of pants continues to press his suit.

Roy Pearson, a District of Columbia administrative law judge, filed a notice of appeal Tuesday with the D.C. Court of Appeals.

I'm trying to think of any circumstance that justifies $54 million... or $5.4 million... or $0.54 million... or even $5.4 thousand for a pair of pants.

It is obvious that this judge is abusing the law, the courts, and the owners of the dry cleaners.

Should the appeal be rejected... which it no doubt will be... the judge should be forced to pay all of the legal costs borne by the dry cleaners... plus a reasonable penalty of say... $54 million.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Steve McIntyre Explains GISS Temperature Adjustments

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

For those of you who would like a condensed version of the recent temperature adjustments made to the database used to "prove" global warming, look at this link.

Some of you may have been unable to get information from Steve's site, Climate Audit, because there was a "denial of service" attack that put his site out of service for awhile. Believers don't like deniers presenting facts.

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This Chery Not A Cherry

SEARCH BLOG: CHERY and CHINA

First food, then medicines, then tires, now this.

But it looked good....



More like sour grapes

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Monday, August 13, 2007

Federal Reserve Getting Nervous?

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

If you search this blog on the Federal Reserve, you'll read some less-than-complimentary comments about the way the Fed tends to create more problems than it solves as it seeks to protect the banking system from inflation [although the press releases always indicate it is some vague "public" that is being protected].

Now there is speculation that the Fed's hand might be forced into lowering interest rates because of "mismanagement" in the mortgage business.

What has happened in the financing/mortgage business is the same thing that happened to tech stocks... greed and manipulation.
Easy money allowed unscrupulous, greedy mortgage "brokers" to package bundles of bad mortgages to greedy "investors" who could only see the dollar signs... "tech stocks can only go up"... and screw up the housing market for everyone else.
Now the Fed realizes that it has to step in to prevent the system from imploding. The problem is the system is still in place for a repeat performance.
That reminds me of government efforts that granted amnesty to foreigners illegally in the U.S. without controlling the underlying situation. Play, rewind, repeat... play, rewind, repeat....

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Tiger's World

SEARCH BLOG: GOLF


[source]

No surprise who won the PGA Championship yesterday.

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Sunday, August 12, 2007

Hot PGA Championship

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

As one who enjoys playing golf [but often plays "flog"], I noticed the constant graphics on the broadcast of the PGA Championship being played in Oklahoma. 101 degrees; heat index 109 degrees.

Here's the "normal" and "record" temperatures for Tulsa.

Sure, most of us won't step out on a golf course when it is 100 degrees, but the "normal" August high temperature in Tulsa is around 93-94 degrees, so 100 is an expected variance. You might also note when those high temperature records were set in Tulsa!

Another subtle "proof" of global warming?

I recall playing golf in Phoenix early one September when the temperature reached 105. Even riding in a cart and drinking a bottle of cold water per hole was barely enough to keep me going.

Those PGA guys are good!

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Money for Expertise

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

This has been making the rounds in the blogging world:

Newsweek says "the denial machine is running at full throttle" and is a "well-funded campaign by contrarian scientists."

How well-funded? Newsweek cites Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) "giving $19 million over the years to the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)" to produce what eminent climatologist Sen. Jay Rockefeller is quoted as calling "very questionable data" on climate change.

No mention is made of the $3 billion contribution to the global warming crusade by Virgin Air's gazillionaire owner Richard Branson alone. Donations such as these are the reason the 2004 budgets of the Sierra Club Foundation and the National Resources Defense Council were $91 million and $57 million respectively.

Newsweek portrays James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, as untainted by corporate bribery.

Hansen was once profiled on CBS' "60 Minutes" as the "world's leading researcher on global warming." Not mentioned by Newsweek was that Hansen had acted as a consultant to Al Gore's slide-show presentations on global warming, that he had endorsed John Kerry for president, and had received a $250,000 grant from the foundation headed by Teresa Heinz Kerry.

Newsweek reporter and editorial, uh, article co-author Eve Conant was provided, during her interview with Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., documentation of the overwhelming funding advantage enjoyed by those who promote fear of climate change. Newsweek chose to ignore it.

In a Sept. 25, 2006, Senate floor speech, Inhofe noted: "The fact remains that political campaign funding by environmental groups to promote climate and environmental alarmism dwarfs spending by the fossil fuel industry by a 3-to-1 ratio."

[source: CNN]

There are two assumptions here:
  1. obtaining money for expertise is "unethical"
  2. obtaining money for expertise inevitably leads to "tainted" results
To both of those assertions, I would have to reply, "Maybe."
There is no absolute causal relationship between funding and fraud. There may be a causal relationship between funding and bias. The problem is that often fraud and bias result in similar conclusions.
That is not to say that funding causes the bias, rather that the bias leads to funding.
If Dr. Hansen's research bias, that showed the late 1990s were hotter than the 1930s, was appealing to the Kerry/Heinz coalition, then he was more likely to receive funding for further study than if his research showed that the 1930s were at least as hot as the 1990s... or hotter. The latter conclusion might draw funding from those in whose interest it was to say that certain anthropogenic activities were not driving global warming.
Perhaps the kettles that are calling the pots black need to step back a little and recognize that, while funding can support research looking for certain outcomes, there is still a scientific method that has to be followed before "the debate is over."

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Saturday, August 11, 2007

Concern at Federal Reserve

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

Yesterday, I sent an article about the Chicago condo market to my oldest son who has a beautiful condo directly across from the Aon Center building in downtown Chicago. He and his wife moved to San Francisco and have been renting it out because the resale market has been so depressed. I also wrote:

I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
Today, I read about the first signs that the Fed might be moving toward more concern about the financial/housing markets than inflation:
Fed tries to calm jittery markets

Financial concern about the credit crunch swept through Europe and into the United States on Thursday. That prompted the Europeans to pump $130 billion into their financial system. Asian central bankers followed suit, while the U.S. Federal Reserve added $24 billion in temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system.

On Friday, the Fed pushed another $38 billion in temporary reserves into the system -- the biggest injection since the days following the Sept. 11 attack.

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European Backlash - Step 5

SEARCH BLOG - EUROPEAN BACKLASH

I have written that the "tolerant" Europeans would begin to show more of their pre-WWII ethnocentrism as they perceived the Muslim challenge to their cultures.

Previously, the French Prime Minister suggested paying Muslims to leave. Now a right-wing Dutch Member of Parliament has proposed banning the Quran.
I'm interested to see what the next step is.

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Can"t Find It?

Use the SEARCH BLOG feature at the upper left. For example, try "Global Warming".

You can also use the "LABELS" below or at the end of each post to find related posts.

Blog Archive

Cost of Gasoline - Enter Your Zipcode or Click on Map

CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

My photo
Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)