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Thursday, September 13, 2007

GIGO Again

SEARCH BLOG: GIGO

Three months ago, I posted "Global Warming GIGO" which told about a small, grass-roots effort that was seeking to determine the state of the weather stations used to gather temperature data for NOAA that has been a significant part of the basis for the claim of global warming.

Now, an initial report of 33% of those stations has been published by Anthony Watts that shows the following:


The CRN site rating system is described here:

"Climate Reference Network Rating Guide - Class 1 and 2 are considered best, 5 is the worst.

Class 1 - Flat and horizontal ground surrounded by a clear surface with a slope below 1/3 (<19deg).>3 degrees.

Class 2 - Same as Class 1 with the following differences. Surrounding Vegetation <25>5deg.

Class 3 (error 1C) - Same as Class 2, except no artificial heating sources within 10 meters.

Class 4 (error >= 2C) - Artificial heating sources <10>

Class 5 (error >= 5C) - Temperature sensor located next to/above an artificial heating source, such a building, roof top, parking lot, or concrete surface."

Fully 70% of the sites surveyed have Class 4 and Class 5 site location problems that cause significant overstatement of temperatures.
Who would have thought that global warming was caused by artificial heating sources?

As the old saying goes, Garbage In; Garbage Out.

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Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Why China Subsidizes Us

SEARCH BLOG: CHINA

Along with the problems in the housing market, the latest employment statistics unnerved Wall Street on Friday. While the financial markets bounce around, the downward trend for housing and employment may continue and worsen for awhile.

Some will see an employment downturn as a result of shipping off jobs to China. Maybe; maybe not. But let's talk about trade with China and, perhaps, a Chinese hidden agenda.
Many claim that China is "subsidizing" the U.S. by selling goods to us that are far cheaper than we could produce domestically.
That may be from a purely economic perspective, but one must ask the basic question: why is China being so altruistic toward an ideological competitor?
Before we look at that, perhaps an historical perspective is helpful. This is a chart showing the major employment sectors in the U.S. over time:


[source]

The U.S. has moved from a producing [farming, manufacturing] to a consuming [services] employment economy.
One must recognize the impact of efficiency. While fewer people are employed in farming than ever before, technology has increased efficiency so dramatically that more food than ever is being produced by fewer people than ever. Likewise, manufacturing is dramatically more efficient than ever before. Simply put, fewer people are needed for manufacturing.
So the employment opportunities are focused on continued improvement of efficiency or raising the quality of life.

But that doesn't answer the question about why China is being so altruistic about "subsidizing" the U.S. with cheap goods.
First of all, China is struggling to get to the point the U.S. was in 1950-1960. An enormous portion of its 1.3 billion population is still in agriculture... "dirt poor" as it were. Increasing manufacturing is its next step to wealth. Even so, the absolute output of China's manufacturing is amazing considering where it was two decades ago.
Then is increasing the living standard of its people the reason that China is "subsidizing" the U.S.?
In order to believe that, one must believe that China has converted to a market economy from a centrally-controlled economy so that it can create opportunities for wealth for its population. Evidence indicates that may be the case... in some part. There are an increasing number of millionaires and billionaires in China.
Does that also mean that China's power elite have converted from a Marxist philosophy to a capitalist philosophy?
I'm not convinced that is the case. Capitalism and central government management of the economy are not necessarily compatible. But limited capitalism may be a tool to be employed by a power elite... especially when the labor used to power the limited capitalism is powerless to demand anything. Some might argue that China's policies might be closer to mercantilism. Regardless, rather than accumulating gold and silver, classic mercantilism, the Chinese are accumulating the world's currency... U.S. dollars. The nation is gaining wealth, but not necessarily the whole population.
What this means is that "China" is not subsidizing the U.S.. Rather it is the Chinese laborers who are subsidizing the U.S. in order to build U.S. dependency on Chinese manufacturing... in order to build wealth for the Chinese government.

But are not many Chinese citizens becoming very wealthy?
Yes, within the constrains of the government control. Party leaders also are becoming more economically powerful as the government itself raises vast amounts of U.S. currency reserves.
So, increasing wealth is the Chinese end game?
I think not. Wealth is a means to an end.
What might that end be?
Power and influence.
For example?
  • Money to buy influence among U.S. politicians
  • Money to buy influence among U.S. corporations
  • Money to obtain technology for military upgrading
  • Money to create modern military products using the technology obtained by influencing U.S. politicians and corporations
  • Money to expand its upgraded military
  • Money to provide weapons "aid" to potential allies willing to act as proxies against the U.S. and, possibly, Russia so that China becomes the dominate military influence in Asia and Africa.
I believe that the Chinese government's goal is to be the dominant nation in the world by the end of the 21st century... economically and militarily... so that it will have priority access to the rest of the world's resources.
China's government is not "communist" in that it is not a "people's government." It is a feudal government of powerful elite, wealthy families that maintain the facade of a "people's government." It's strategy is to dole out just enough of the increasing wealth to placate its population without ceding any power.
So why is China "subsidizing" the U.S.?
Perhaps they are taking some pages out of the book from this man.
Wealth is but a means to an end. The U.S. might want to ask, "The end of what?"




[click on picture to enlarge]

I know, I'm just another one of those conspiracy nuts.

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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Forming A Federal Government

SEARCH BLOG: HISTORY and POLITICS

It has been 4 years since the U.S. destroyed the existing government of Iraq and attempted to create a nation based on a federation of disparate interests.

Although there has been a government formed under the protection of the U.S., there has been continued fighting among the various interests as well as foreign interests attempting to disrupt the process of creating a stable and independent Iraq.

Consequently, many Americans are saying that it is time to leave and let the chips fall where they may. Four years is a long time and if a stable government representing all of the interests can't be formed in that time, then perhaps it is simply not destined to happen.

To those people, I would like to mention two dates in history: September 17, 1787 and September 11, 2001.
According to my calculations, the first date was 11 years after independence from Britain was declared. It took some time to finish the fighting and bring the various interests of the states together to complete and sign a Constitution.
What would this part of the world look like if everyone had decided that 4 years was enough back then?
We tend to forget that new nations, like new children, take time and protection to mature... especially if someone is trying to kill them.
It has been 6 years since the World Trade Center was destroyed. A replacement has been planned... but not even started. Was 4 years too long?
The distinction is pretty thin between impatience and short-sightedness.

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Federal Reserve Watching

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE

There is considerable speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower its funds rate [currently at 5.25%] by one-quarter to one-half of a percentage point. I'm thinking 4.00% is a good target for stabilizing healthy growth and restricting inflation... but I'm not holding my breath.

Given the present slowdown in key housing and jobs statistics, plus the level of foreclosures nationwide, the media are claiming it is a "foregone conclusion" that the Fed will now recognize that the eel has slipped through its fingers.

In its zeal to protect the banking system against inflation, the Fed was willing to overlook the growing structural cracks in the U.S. economy. Now it has to recognize that in many areas, deflation has struck housing values and probably income levels. It's like driving with your brakes on all of the time. Sooner or later you grind to a halt or simply crash.
No, the economy is not crashing. But sectors of the economy are... and they will adversely affect the overall economy for awhile.
Interestingly, recent economic statistics have been adjusted downward. When the government reports many of its economic data, the actual numbers are converted to seasonally adjusted annual rates [SAAR]. That means that if August is historically 5% lower than an average month, the August actual numbers are multiplied by 12 [annualized] and then increased by 5% for the normal monthly variation [this is the simplified version].

However, there is a trend that must be recognized in the statistics. If the trend is downward, then the SAAR is adjusted as well. So what was reported as a higher number early may be adjusted downward [or upward] depending on the statistical trend. This adjustment can go back many months.

That's why you and I might recognize a problem long before government statistics do.
Saturday night, I was listening to talk radio while driving home. The host was having a real hissy fit about Ben Bernanke being a "rookie" and making bad decisions about the funds rate.
I have been critical of the Federal Reserve actions for some time now [do a simple blog search on "Federal Reserve"], but one needs to realize that the statistical process by which the Fed gets economic data is always subject to revision.
That doesn't mean that the Fed was correct in raising the funds rate to 5.25%... it wasn't. It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.

The Fed caused the housing mess by making money too cheap and then caused the housing crash by making money too expensive. But one has to wonder how the Fed really uses the information it has available... and why. The whipsaw effect of Fed actions has to make one wonder.
You might expect the Fed to try to correct the situation, but don't hold your breath either.

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Monday, September 10, 2007

Comments Regarding Gen. Patraeus

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

It is now 1:23 pm EDT and General Patraeus is about to make his comments about the situation in Iraq to Congress.

The politicians have already completed their remarks and the news media have already analyzed the general's comments.
Isn't time travel wonderful?

UPDATE

I've been watching the presentation from and questions to Gen. Patraeus and Amb. Crocker and most of the exchanges have been reasonable and polite... with two notable exceptions: Congressman Brad Sherman from California all but called the general a liar and used every snarky and sneaky approach to try to put words into the general's mouth.
For example, the illustrious congressman asked the general how he would choose between directives of Congress and orders from the president if they conflicted. The general politely answered that he probably would have to consult his lawyer [before telling Congress that his commander is the President?]. The congressperson then said that the general was saying he would disobey a direct order???
Sorry, Congressman Sherman, but you fit the description of a "perfect asshole." Congressman Robert Wexler is a close second.

The Democrats are going to lose the next election as a result of their performance today. The only thing they lacked were the pink outfits.

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Normal Weather or Global Warming

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER and GLOBAL WARMING

Regional climates vary significantly and the weather patterns affecting the regional climates also vary significantly. For example, there is nothing in the weather database to indicate that the Great Lakes basin is any warmer now than the first half of last century.

It is difficult for the average person to discern what is normal variation from what is change. Sometimes, it is difficult for newspapers to discern that as well... or perhaps it is convenient to not make a distinction... or perhaps it is convenient to simply ignore the facts.
To wit: the Detroit Free Press reported...
1. DEADLY CHAIN REACTION
August 27, 2007 •• 1177 words •• ID: dfp0000471169
Scientists who for decades have studied the delicate prey-predator balance between moose and wolves on Lake Superior's Isle Royale believe global warming - by giving an assist to blood-sucking bugs - ultimately could deal a deathblow to the national park's wolf population. Since 2002, the number of moose on the island has declined from 1,100 to 385, following a dramatic increase in winter ticks. The insects infest the moose, suck their blood and weaken them, making them....
I responded with this letter to them:
Your headline suggesting global warming may be to blame for changes in the the dynamics among moose, wolves, and ticks doesn't appear to be supported by the temperature history.

Since Isle Royale doesn't have a long record, I looked at Duluth, MN which is about 150 miles southwest. The monthly history of temperature clearly shows that the high record temperatures were not set recently. In fact, the most recent high temperature record was set in September, 1976. [source: The Weather Channel http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/wxclimatology/monthly/USMN0208]

While such recording may sell newspapers, it certainly doesn't provide readers with an accurate account of the weather for that particular location... or a reasonable explanation for the underlying cause of changes in animal populations.

Bruce Hall


Month Avg.
High
Avg.
Low
Mean Avg.
Precip
Record
High
Record
Low
Jan 18°F -1°F 8°F 1.12 in. 55°F (1942) -52°F (1899)
Feb 25°F 5°F 15°F 0.83 in. 58°F (1895) -39°F (1996)
Mar 34°F 16°F 25°F 1.69 in. 81°F (1946) -29°F (1989)
Apr 49°F 29°F 39°F 2.09 in. 88°F (1952) -5°F (1975)
May 63°F 40°F 52°F 2.95 in. 95°F (1939) 16°F (1907)
Jun 71°F 49°F 60°F 4.25 in. 97°F (1910) 27°F (1972)
Jul 76°F 55°F 65°F 4.20 in. 106°F (1936) 35°F (1988)
Aug 74°F 54°F 64°F 4.22 in. 97°F (1930) 32°F (1986)
Sep 65°F 45°F 55°F 4.13 in. 95°F (1976) 23°F (1974)
Oct 52°F 35°F 44°F 2.46 in. 86°F (1953) 6°F (1917)
Nov 35°F 21°F 28°F 2.12 in. 73°F (1903) -29°F (1875)
Dec 22°F 6°F 14°F 0.94 in. 56°F (1939) -35°F (1917)
Naturally, I never even received an acknowledgment of the letter.

I noticed my coffee seemed hotter than usual this morning. Must be global warming....

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Friday, September 07, 2007

An Iraqi Speaks Out

SEARCH BLOG: IRAQ

As promised several weeks ago, this is a guest post by an Iraqi-American woman who has family in Iraq.

Since the current Iraq situation is a complicated problem, it needs a complicated multi-avenue solutions. As complicated as this might be, it is as simple as this:

Just like a person who has many diseases been treated from all of them at once, Iraq has many complicated diseases. If you start treating one disease, the other will grow and get out of hand. You have to cure all diseases at once in order to get swift benefits.
Now lets get to the solutions without the blame game which has been going nowhere while our troops and innocent Iraqi civilians are paying unnecessary heavy prices.

The following is my scenario of the solution package. I lived half of my life in Baghdad and half of it in the USA. Melting my both perspectives I think is best to get to resolution.

1. SECURE IRAQ BORDERS, NOW:
Among all other obvious measures, this includes continuously flying over the borders to halt any penetration to the country

2. RECRUIT ALL THE IRAQI EX-MILITARY COMMANDERS:
I believe they are very loyal to their country than to a specific political figure. Let them call on their old military units to come back to duty to serve their country and not a specific leader. Iraqi soldiers believe in their military commanders, trust them and have a great respect for them. Those commanders and their units will be the only logical way to clean the streets of Baghdad and other Iraqi cities and towns from the different gang groups, insurgents and militias.

3. REFORM NEW GOVERNMENT:
If you want to clean the country from violence, you need to clean the government first. The new government should have well known figures who Iraqis trust.

4. ORGANIZE A ONE DAY CURFEW:
I remember during the Census Day in Iraq, recruited groups visited every single residential unit in the country in an effort to interview citizens to make sure that their ballots are filled out without improper information. I think if this can happen, then we can use the same format and recruit security groups all over Iraq. Then on one day curfew, they go door to door to make sure who is accounted for and who is not. This will include making sure that the occupants of each housing unit have the proper Property Title. All houses have to be returned to their owners. We can do a lot of things during that day. Of course, the government would have mailed each housing unit comprehensive forms to examine and fill out so they be ready on that day. This includes updated photographs and fingerprinting.

5. RELIGIOUS LEADERS SUMMIT:
To have all Iraqi religious leaders meet and put their differences aside in an effort to send a powerful and firm message to the Iraqis not to let their differences conquer them. Those leaders should also put pressure on the government to change the I.D. card to be issued without the listing of sectarian affiliations. The religious leaders also should facilitate the return of people to their houses after all the sectarian segregation.

6. START SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRAMS, NOW:
Part of solving the crisis, the Iraqi Society is in desperate need of social rehabilitation and economic solutions. Start employing Iraqis to build their country instead of getting foreign contractors to do that. No better way to build Iraq except with the hands of its own people. Not to mention that this is very therapeutical to the society. We cannot wait until the violence is over for such programs to start.

7. RESTORE THE INFRASTRUCTURE
I don't think I need to describe the horrible situation of the infrastructure. It needs rebuilding on high gear.
Electricity
Water
Sewage System
Roads & Bridges

8. LIKE ANY AMERICAN CITIES:
We have to help Iraqis start (for real) rebuilding the followings:
Hospitals: Remodel all hospitals and supply them with the state of the art medical equipments and supplies.
Give incentives to Iraqi professionals (doctors, professors, engineers, etc) to return back to their country to help in its rebuilding.
Schools: Remodel and secure schools on all levels
Department Stores: We have to start NOW supplying the entire country with major department stores just like Wall Marts, Costco, Home Depot, CVS. Iraqis are in desperate need for all necessary consumer goods and medicine to feel like they are been treated as human beings again.

9. MAINTAIN THE PRESENCE OF U.S. MILITARY TROOPS AND EXTRA HUMANITARIAN GROUPS IN ITS FULL CAPACITY:
This will be the only way the U.S. can contribute to having such diverse plan of action be enforced and get done in a short period of time. The Iraqi government and military cannot do this alone.

10. FIND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TO THE IRAQI REFUGEE CRISES.
There are many kinds of refugees. We are not talking about the Iraqis who call themselves refugees, yet they are living well outside their country. We are talking about the ones who are thriving to get food and basic needs on a daily basis.

I hope that my plan of action can be heard all over the world and that it can be implemented.

May Peace Be With All Of You.
An Iraqi-American Woman
[No new posts until Monday]
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Start Of The Fall

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER



Summer is ending in Michigan. Not officially until later this month, but Labor Day marked the start of the end.

This weekend the apple cider mills open up and people are looking toward the autumn pleasures. By early next week, summer weather is moving out and early autumn weather moving in.

Time to put away sweat bands and pull out the sweaters.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Positive Equals Negative and Vice Versa

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

The latest doublespeak coming out of Washington is from Sen. Charles Schumer who now insists that the U.S. military "surge" is not working because the reduction of violence is only coincidental and concomitant with the military action, not caused by it [and because he said it wasn't going to work and if it worked it wasn't because it was the right thing to do].

Apparently, the Iraqis in areas with increased U.S. military presence are helping to reduce the violence. That's bad because, as Sen. Schumer says: "And the fallacy of the President's new policy is just amazing. Are we placing our faith in the future of Iraq in the hands of some tribal leaders who at the moment dislike al Qaeda more than they dislike us? Make no mistake about it. They're no friends of Americans."
Fine, tribal leaders made a choice when they were given a choice. If the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then the tribal leaders have decided that the Americans are their friends.

Meanwhile, according to the BBC, in Germany "authorities are hunting for about 10 more suspects believed to have helped the three men held for allegedly plotting massive bomb attacks. The Islamist plotters were targeting US facilities in Germany, officials said. The 10 sought are "Germans, Turks and other nationalities," a top security official, August Hanning, told German ARD television on Thursday. Germany announced on Wednesday that it had arrested two Germans and a Turk suspected of planning huge bombings."
The arrests are only coincidental and concomitant with anti-terrorism efforts. The persons who were arrested only made themselves available for arrest because they had a change of heart after realizing that Islam was the religion of peace.
Meanwhile, President Bush and Chinese leader, Hu Jintao, held talks described as "friendly" by Mr. Bush.
The "friendly" talks are only coincidental and concomitant with Chinese efforts to influence U.S. presidential elections through illegal campaign financing [Clinton-Hsu], Chinese efforts to assist Iran to deliver atomic weapons by selling missile technology, and countless sales of unsafe products to the U.S. [the latest seems to be fuses that cause fires].
Sometimes, it seems that those who have an agenda will be willing to turn the world on its head while saying they are righting the ship.

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Golfing with God

SEARCH BLOG: GOLF

In the same way that other recreational golfers butcher the game of golf, I manage to be consistently inconsistent which gives me great frustration... so much so that I feel as if I need God as cart companion to have a decent round.

But as the saying goes, the Lord helps those who help themselves.

So last week, I went to the driving range and started analyzing the various parts of my golf swing.

The first thing I noticed was my setup was never the same. Sometimes the ball was too far forward [toward the target] and sometimes too far back [away from the target]. Sometimes I stood too close to the ball and sometimes I stood too far away.

The next thing I noticed was that the face of the club head [that part that hits the ball] was sometime pointing to the right of the target when I made contact [open] and sometimes pointing to the left of the target [closed]. I wanted the club face pointing at the target.

Then I noticed I held the club handle in different ways. Sometimes my hands fitting together tightly and sometimes there was a gap between them.

Then I noticed that sometimes I would hit the ground before the ball and other times I would barely hit the top of the ball.
It was obvious that I really needed God in my golf cart. But I worked on some things that started to make my hitting better and more consistent.
First, I picked up the club in my left hand in such a way that the club face was aligned facing the target... alignment.

Then I gripped the club in such a way that my right hand locked snugly against my left hand... lockdown.

Then I stood upright with my club held in front of me with my arms relaxed and straight so that when I moved downward and forward I was in the correct stance to launch the ball... launch position.

The last pre-swing point was to check my aim to be sure my body was parallel to the line of my swing... aim.

All that was left was to swing from this pre-set position and hit the ball... hit.
I discovered that while God may help those who help themselves... ALLAH definitely helps my golf game:
  • Alignment ... of the club face
  • Locking ... the hands together in a snug grip that keeps the arms in a good position
  • Launch ... position just the right distance from the ball
  • Aim ... check before swinging so that the ball starts in the right direction
  • Hit ... the ball trusting that it will be struck well and go straight.
Today I played a round 7 strokes under my average. I missed some putts that could have made the round even better, but nothing seems to help putts... not even ALLAH.

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Wednesday, September 05, 2007

What's Good For The Goose Is Not Good For The Gander

SEARCH BLOG: EDUCATION

This photo on the front page of the Detroit Free Press caught my attention:



What caught my attention?

Well, suppose this had been a picture of a middle-aged or even 30-year old male teacher and the student had been female....
The teacher would not have remained a teacher very long.
I have been told by a few male teachers that they would never... ever... under any circumstances... touch a student... male or female... even to provide comfort or for any other reason... because they know they would be fired.
So what gives the Governor the right to do so?

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Tuesday, September 04, 2007

U.N. Climate Agreement Will Change The Way We Live

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

The UN has reached an agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions by 25 - 40% [versus 1990 levels] by 2020.

First, let's point out that the target is only 12 years from now. The image below is a stacked area chart which displays the cumulative levels of CO2 output.

Just so you understand... a 25-40% reduction from 1990 levels would require cutting emissions in half in 12 years... basically shutting down the world's economies.

To be fair, the UN only wants the industrialized economies to cut back that much, so the chart probably overstates the reduction. On the other hand, a large portion of China's contribution to CO2 emissions comes from underground coal fires [not included in the chart below]... which may match U.S. total output. So, it might be reasonable to put more of the onus on China.
So, with China and India gearing up industrial production and Europe and the U.S. balking from using more nuclear power, where do these savings come from.

Well, for one thing, transportation modes will have to change:

Air conditioning will be replaced by more natural living styles:


Heating will have to be replaced with insulation:

Electricity will have to be used only for essentials such as communication:

Of course, government officials will have to conserve, too... maybe more modest government facilities?

Wait, forget that last one... it will never happen. Just the rest of us will have to change.
Just so you are clear on this... the organization that proposed what has become a non-binding target is the same organization that disregarded vast amounts of scientific evidence that CO2 is not a critical element in climate change [note that "global warming" is being replaced by the more nebulous term as it becomes harder to defend the IPCC original positions].
The U.N. has shown repeatedly that it is the safehouse of extremists of all manner... and that little of value has ever come from it.
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Monday, September 03, 2007

Hillary Funding Scandal Follow-up

SEARCH BLOG: CLINTON

No comment needed from me about this.

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Brave Palestinian Militants Defend Themselves

SEARCH BLOG: ISLAM

Brave Palestinian "militants" fought a heated battle against a fierce and determined Israeli force led by 15 babies at a day care center in Sderot. [via Jihad Watch]

Although neither side suffered casualties, the militants celebrated the fact that at least one of the six rockets they fired at the infidel baby force landed in the school yard... showing that the Palestinians are not about to be intimidated by anyone and have the means to fight back.
The brave Palestinians, shouting "Allah Akbar," later said that they would stand just as resolutely even if the Israelis send 30 babies against them.

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Sunday, September 02, 2007

Read To Them

SEARCH BLOG: EDUCATION and DYSFUNCTIONAL

I had a conversation with my youngest son's girlfriend. She just received her bachelor's degree and has been working in a pre-school with children as young as two.

I asked what they did with two-year olds and she said they had all sorts of activities including geography lessons. That greatly surprised me. But she assured me that they actually learned to identify places on maps.
Sending your child to a pre-school is becoming fairly common. Yet, many parents simply can't afford that luxury.
My wife quit work after our first son was born; we adjusted our spending patterns. We also focused very early on spending time in a way that would benefit our son for the rest of his life; we read to him.
Cost is never an issue when educating a child. We bought Dr. Seuss books for a few dollars each... one every couple of weeks... and a couple of Muppet puppets [which dates us]. Then, the "Muppets would read" the Dr. Seuss books to our son.

By the time he was 3-years old, he was "reading" along with the puppets. I'm not sure when his memorization turned into actual reading, but it was very early on. He never seemed to get tired of the ritual of reading with the puppets after dinner. He would select a book, pick up the puppets and bring them to me, and we would listen together as the Muppets read.
I could have read my newspaper, or watched TV, or just relaxed on my own. But this was my opportunity to have my son spend time with me and I knew it was just as important for me as it was for him.
I replicated this ritual with my other two sons. Often the next oldest would join in and read to the younger one using the Muppet puppets in the same way I did. They were creating a tradition of sharing and learning together that they still have today... as much as is possible for grown men to have. The oldest has move out of state, but the two younger sons have their own thriving business together. They are still sharing and learning.
We didn't spend a fortune to create a love of reading and learning with our sons. We spent our time. That "investment" has returned the greatest rewards.
I have written about dysfunctional subcultures in which education simply doesn't matter.
Unlike, many who wish to blame our school systems for the failure of children within these subcultures, I hold the schools blameless. There is only one reason for a child's failure to become educated and prepared for life: his parents.
Unfortunately, the children become dysfunctional adults who create children who become dysfunctional adults.
If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you always got.
Some children will escape the cycle. They will forge a bond with a teacher or some adult who will care and nurture. But too many will simply replicate.
Stupidity has its own rewards.
It's been said many times by many people: "read to your children."
The only reason for not doing so is terminal stupidity.
School is in session.

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Saturday, September 01, 2007

This Option Not Available

SEARCH BLOG: SPORTS

Nifong - One Day Is Enough?

SEARCH BLOG: LAW

From Newsday:

When the judge read the sentence Friday evening, Mary Ellen Finnerty of Garden City broke down and cried -- Mike Nifong, the disbarred Durham County, N.C., district attorney who tried to put her son in jail on false rape accusations, was going to jail himself.

Nifong was sentenced to one day behind bars for criminal contempt of court in connection with his attempted prosecution last year of Finnerty's son Collin and two other Duke University lacrosse players.

"It does give us closure," said Collin Finnerty's father, Kevin, who attended the hearing in Raleigh with his wife. "I think the three boys have their reputations back."

...

The jail sentence, however short, represents yet another blow to the tarnished reputation of Nifong, who was also stripped of his law license by the state bar in June.

Thomas Metzloff, a professor at the Duke University School of Law who followed the Nifong case closely, called the sentence "unprecedented."

"This just doesn't happen," he said. "This was a very important moment because it showed that the court system really cared about what happened in this case."
Let's see, malicious prosecution, prosecutorial misconduct, withholding evidence, denial of rights... that's worth about a day in the pokey.

How about 6 hours for embezzlement? And 3 hours for perjury? And 15 seconds for wife abuse?
Will he get 12 hours off for good behavior? Another 3 hours off if he finishes all of his dinner?
Sounds like North Carolina is the place to be... if you want to avoid paying the price for your actions.
Nifong took away a year of life from 3 young men. How about a 3-year sentence?
The message it sends to prosecutors is that no matter how nefarious their conduct, they are guaranteed a slap on the pinky... at worst.

Let's hope that civil court provides more justice than North Carolina criminal court.

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CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)