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Monday, September 14, 2009

Will NYC Be Flooded By 2080

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE

After reading the following in The Wall Street Journal, I contacted the author, Robert Lee Hotz, concerning the suppositions behind New York City's plan to avert inundation by 2080.

[image from the movie "The Day After Tomorrow"]

NEW YORK -- When major ice sheets thaw, they release enough fresh water to disrupt ocean currents world-wide and make the planet wobble with the uneven weight of so much meltwater on the move. Studying these effects more closely, scientists are discovering local variations in rising sea levels -- and some signs pointing to higher seas around metropolitan New York.

Sea level may rise faster near New York than at most other densely populated ports due to local effects of gravity, water density and ocean currents, according to four new forecasts of melting ice sheets. The forecasts are the work of international research teams that included the University of Toronto, the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., Florida State University and the University of Bristol in the U.K., among others.

Read more....

My note:

"Sea level is currently rising at 2.378 mm/year. At that rate, it will take 631 years for sea level to rise 1.5 meters. During that time hundreds of billions of people may have lived and died – the ultimate displacement."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/15/scientific-jargon-would-will-could-might-maybe/#more-7887

The problem with extrapolating short-term variations in climate is the absurdity of the results. For example, the spike in temperatures in the 1990s has been followed by a general cooling in the 2000s. In the U.S., as measured by temperature extremes, the present decade is wholly unremarkable...
If New York City [or any other coastal urban area such as New Orleans] wants to protect itself against sea surges, it is wholly unnecessary to justify it by bad science or science fiction. In a world with sufficient problems, it is foolish to create additional problems... and solutions... that will cost billions or trillions of dollars and accomplish very little. The Netherlands have shown that living with high seas can be accomplished with relatively simple efforts. There is significant doubt that New York City will be faced with that problem.
His response:
You would be correct in your estimate if the rate of increase remains the same. And that is, of course, the point of all the research on greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. The rate of change is increasing. How quickly it is changing is the argument. With sea level projections, we do know that sea level has risen alreday about one foot during the 20th Century in response to a combination of rising temperatures and, in some areas, land subsidence. To predict the future, the problem is complex because human behavior is the key variable in a range of best-case/worst-case scenarios. All these sea level rise figures are estimates and they all encompass a range of possibilities depending in part on which of the many greenhouse gas emissions scenarios we do or do not embrace.

In the direst scenario, in which both the Greenland ice sheets and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet completely melt, the global sea level could rise 32 feet or more over several centuries. Obviously that's the most extreme possibility and there's no way to know whether it is at all credible or just plain scare-mongering. New York planners have adopted a much more conservative set of parameters based on the best scientific advice they could get. Earlier this year, the city-appointed New York Panel on Climate Change released its formal prediction of how temperature, precipitation and sea level for the metropolitan area might change over the coming century. You can read that report and others by New York's planners on the local climate change and what they are doing about it at:
You mention that the Netherlands lives with high seas "with relatively simple efforts." Not so simple, really. To prevent storm surge flooding, the Netherlands has built 1,500 miles of dikes, 120 miles of reinforced sea dunes, 3,748 miles of drainage canals, sea walls and flood control dams. To name just one part of the system, the Oosterschelde storm surge barrier is 5 1/2 miles long and is composed of 65 moveable piers that each measure up to 100 feet high and weigh 8,000 tons. It cost about $3.2 billion and it took 19 years to build.

[Excerpt from CLIMATE RISK INFORMATION - NEW YORK CITY PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE:]
Rising sea levels are extremely likely. GCM-based
projections for mean annual sea level rise in New
York City are:

• 2 – 5 inches by the 2020s
• 7 – 12 inches by the 2050s
• 12 – 23 inches by the 2080s

Because GCMs do not capture all of the processes
which may contribute to sea level rise, an alternative
method that incorporates observed and longer-term
historical ice-melt rates is also included. This “rapid
ice-melt” approach suggests sea level could rise by
approximately 41 to 55 inches by the 2080s.
My last response:
Your arguments are persuasive; however, the present data do not seem to justify the projections of increasing ice melt. While there has been some recent reduction of the northern hemisphere ice sheet [with a possible reversal in the last few years], the southern hemisphere has had a slightly opposite trend.

You are correct that predicting the future is complex, especially when the analysis of present data is so difficult. I correspond ... with two well-known authors of climate information on the internet: Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr., climatologist; and Anthony Watts, meteorologist. Anthony tends to be a little dramatic in his arguments, but does back them up with data; Roger is more restrained and accepts that humans do influence regional climates, but primarily from land use changes, not by fractionally increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.
 Regardless, I do not expect to alter your views regarding climate change. I do agree that there are actions we can take to lessen the impact on our climate and general environment. NYC plans to address worst-case scenarios are fine. Even spending $3.2 billion over 2 decades would be minuscule compared with costs of the city being inundated with a sudden surge of water from a hurricane... however remote the possibility. Their plans, however well intended, are based on some very shaky "science"... actually some very shaky computer modeling. Therefore, the fact that they have such plans adds no credibility to the projections.

My concern is that the Federal government is pushing forward with policies and programs that will have disastrous results for our economy in the name of preventing naturally-occurring changes to our climate. Energy independence from politically unstable or hostile sources is a worthwhile effort; restricting that effort in a narrow band of alternatives based on scare tactics is the height of stupidity. It is as if a person becomes ill and his temperature rises to 103° temporarily. Using projections from temperature trends would indicate rapid rises to 110° and beyond. Simplistic thinking about climate variation is more of a danger to us than real climate variations. Wet suits will not be the NYC fashion rage of 2080.
The University of Illinois has a site that tracks polar ice in square miles... north and south poles. It does show a modest decline in ice over the past 40 years, including a recent decline which, in large part, NASA attributed to unusual wind conditions in the arctic and which has started to reverse.

It is all well and good for NYC to have solid infrastructure plans and the link to the .pdf documents provided by Mr. Hotz [which I greatly appreciate] shows that NYC has done a significant amount of planning and implementation to manage an urban area that supports 8.5 million people.

It is unfortunate, in my opinion, that it is deemed necessary by NYC to justify such efforts with alarming projections similar to Al Gore's.
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Sunday, September 13, 2009

Social Security Alternative

SEARCH BLOG: SOCIAL SECURITY

Not quite two years ago, I wrote about Social Security funding. I concluded that:

The simple solution:

  • Increase the early eligibility age from 62 to 66 and the full retirement benefits age from the current 67 to 70.
  • Make mandatory retirement illegal before age 72 to ensure no one is forced to leave a job before retirement benefits are available
  • Require legal residence/citizenship for eligibility
The reasons this would work:
  • The funding problem is an actuarial issue, not a cash input one
  • Eligibility has been expanded beyond manageable limits or reasonable limits
This would place any hardship on the aging population as opposed to those who receive benefits from ancillary programs attached to Social Security. Those could and should be reviewed separately.
Just one other thought: delaying the time that social security benefits are available would serve as an incentive to 1) delay starting a working career to 2) become skilled/educated in something that they really want to do for a long time or 3) move to a country that offers nationalized everything like Britain (where you are granted all kinds of benefits, but you have to pull your own teeth to get them).
UPDATED SECTION: There is another way to address Social Security funding. By law, we all have to pay 6.2% [12.4% if self-employed] of gross income, up to a varying amount each year, into Social Security plus 2.9% of an unlimited amount into Medicare. Then, whether you need it or not, you start getting it beginning as early as 62-years old. But over 40 or 45 years of paying into the system, the government has gotten quite a chunk of change from you.
For example, for someone earning the $106,800 in 2009 -- $106,800 x 12.4% which is $13,243.20 plus 2.9% of $106,800 which is $3,079.80 ... a grand total of $16,320.00... exclusive of income tax. For someone earning $2 million a year, they contribute $58,000 PER YEAR just toward Medicare.

At the current rate and current maximum [which won't stay the same, by the way] a person earning $106,800+ would pay $529,728 just toward the Social Security amount in 40 years... not counting the investment value of that amount which would take the total to well into 7 figures! [at just 4% annual compounding over 40 years that would be $1,372,360]
Change the tax code so that you can elect to forego receiving social security payments... but in return the federal government will forego taxes on all pension and investment income received after the age of 67. This tax relief would also apply to spouses and heirs if they receive any part of your pension and investments upon your death.

In essence, you get nothing from the government from all of the payments made by you and your employer... and you give nothing to the government once you have achieve the age of full Social Security benefits.

Fair is fair.
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Saturday, September 12, 2009

And The Number One Reason Why Medicare Is Not The Answer Is...

SEARCH BLOG: HEALTH CARE

From The Wall Street Journal:

Democratic leaders at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue continue to battle over whether a new government-run health plan, modeled after the popular Medicare program for seniors, must be included in health-reform legislation.

President Barack Obama told a New Hampshire town-hall meeting last month that "if we're able to get something right like Medicare, then there should be a little more confidence that maybe the government can have a role." Did the government really get Medicare right? Here are the top 10 reasons this program should not be a model for reform, and why it would be dangerous for the federal government to be put in charge of any more of our health sector:

Read more....

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Friday, September 11, 2009

Remember 9/11 - Never Forget

SEARCH BLOG: TERRORISM

Remember who are our friends... and who are not... and don't confuse the two.

Now, just a few dots to connect.

First this...

According to border patrol officials, including Sheriff D'Wayne Jenigan of Del Rio, Texas, thousands of Special Interest Aliens (SIAs), with the help of Mara Salvatrucha "coyotes," have made their way across the Mexican border and into the land of the free and the home of the brave. Such SIAs come from countries that pose national security concerns: Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Egypt, Somalia, Yemen, Jordan, Lebanon, and even Iraq.

The routes used by illegal aliens to enter the U.S. have become littered with discarded Muslim prayer blankets, pages from Islamic texts, and Arabic newspapers. Law enforcement officials have named such passageways "terrorists' alleys" and a street leading north from the city of Douglas, Arizona, as "Arab Road."

Read more....

And then this...

PHOENIX -- As of 10 p.m. on Friday night, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio says the federal government released nine "illegal immigrants" arrested in a crime sweep because their arrests didn't fit new Department of Homeland Security policies.

On Thursday three were caught and released, "into the dark night," Arpaio said.

The other six were caught and released on Friday.

Because the nine people had committed no other criminal or civil violations other than coming into the United States illegally, Sheriff Arpaio said his deputies were instructed by federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to let them go free.

Sheriff Arpaio believes this new attitude is because of a recent change to the agreement between law enforcement agencies like MCSO and the federal immigration program known as 287G.

Read more....

And then this...

Your Federal government at work for you... well, maybe not you. Just to be sure that nobody tries to mess with "undocumented aliens" [that's the buzzword used by VP Biden the other day], the Feds plan to make an example of Sheriff Arpaio...

The Department of Justice is actually bringing deported illegal aliens back to the U.S. to be witnesses in a civil rights investigation of an Arizona sheriff’s department that enforces immigration law through a federal partnership.

Read more....

Excuse me... what "civil rights" do people who are not citizens or legally in the U.S. and are breaking Federal laws have? What about the civil rights and possibly the safety of our citizens that are being threatened by Federal government workers and managers who refuse to enforce the laws of this nation?

And finally this...
The man who predicted 9/11 is worried that its sequel is imminent.

"Muslims that I talk to say things like, 'America thinks they're safe now. They've forgotten about 9/11. But watch, Daniel [J. Hill]. Stay near your TV. It's going to be bigger than 9/11,' " he said.

Hill said the next terrorist attack will involve suitcase nuclear bombs that will be detonated in small, low-flying two-seater private airplanes manned by men hanging onto the belief that, like the 9/11 hijackers, they are about to die as martyrs and enter paradise.

..."I don't know the second, hour or day. I just know they have the means, will, motivation and desire to do it," he said, noting that it's believed that years ago the suitcase nukes, acquired from former USSR operatives, were smuggled into America across the Mexican border.

Read more....
Are all illegals dangerous? No, most are just seeking to leave their own countries and want the opportunities in ours. Are some illegals dangerous? Yes.

The problem is that ICE/Homeland Security seems to take the position that "no harm, no foul." What are they going to say when we receive a really "hard foul?" This isn't basketball and we won't get "free throws" after a "hard foul." Ejecting them after a "hard foul" will be far too little and far too late.Connect the dots yourself....

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Thursday, September 10, 2009

Fines For Not Having Health Insurance

SEARCH BLOG: HEALTH CARE and OBAMA

The Associate Press reports:

WASHINGTON — Americans who fail to sign up for a medical plan after health care overhaul takes effect could be hit with fines of up to $3,800, according to a new proposal circulated Tuesday by a senior Democrat. Meanwhile, on the eve of a major health care speech by President Barack Obama, a government health insurance option overwhelmingly favored by progressive Democrats appeared to be losing critically needed support.

Read more....

Now don't you think that is silly? The government issuing fines for not having health insurance that is going to drive up our national debt?

Better solution: give everyone the choice of buying their own insurance... or taking Medicaid if they can't afford it... or paying for their own health care out of their own pockets. But if the government insists on forcing people to have insurance, then it should be life insurance. Actually, I don't know why they call it life insurance when death insurance would be a more appropriate name.

You can take the three existing health care options... or choose no professional treatment other than pain management perhaps. If you die, your death insurance will cover any outstanding debts you have and give your heirs some measure of financial support in your absence.

You could also call that catastrophic insurance. You could also call it unnecessary government meddling in our lives... and deaths. I guess some people are incompetent and they would benefit from having the government tell them how to live their lives. But the rest of us prefer otherwise.

So, let's have the government offer an incompetence insurance public option.

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Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Unequal Protection Outside Of The Law

SEARCH BLOG: ENERGY

Renewable energy advocates were handed a political setback because President Obama's choice for his administration's spokesman for that effort turned out to be possibly the worst choice since John Wilkes Booth was selected to entertain President Lincoln.

Regardless, the major issue has been one of economics more than style. Solar and wind energy simply cannot compete economically with all other types of fuel... except perhaps ethanol. They depend heavily upon government subsides for all manner of shortcomings. So, one would expect that because these energy sources are so heavily subsidized, they should at least be subject to the same laws and regulations as other forms of energy production. Expect again....

The Wall Street Journal published an article that details how "environmentally correct" wind power has been destroying birds at an alarming rate... that was already widely known... but has been conveniently given a pass by that same federal government that prosecutes oil companies and electric companies for the deaths of far fewer birds. Sure, lots of other things kill birds, but they are not regulated energy producers.

During the late 1980s and early '90s, Rob Lee was one of the Fish and Wildlife Service's lead law-enforcement investigators on the problem of bird kills in Western oil fields. Now retired and living in Lubbock, Texas, Mr. Lee tells me that solving the problem in the oil fields "was easy and cheap." The oil companies only had to put netting over their tanks and waste facilities.

Why aren't wind companies prosecuted for killing eagles and other birds? "The fix here is not easy or cheap," Mr. Lee told me. He added that he doesn't expect to see any prosecutions of the politically correct wind industry.

This is a double standard that more people—and not just bird lovers—should be paying attention to. In protecting America's wildlife, federal law-enforcement officials are turning a blind eye to the harm done by "green" energy.

Read more....

This "liberal" double-standard is the same double-speak that made avowed radical racist and communist, Van Jones, acceptable as a spokesperson for the "green" movement.

Perhaps one ought to look behind the rhetoric of the "greenies" and understand their political motivations. Then one will understand why it is so acceptable to hide all manner of conflict and corruption behind the the sanctified label of "green." It has very little to do with the environment and much to do with political control.

So, while "wind farms" kill more protected birds than oil companies, guess what the "bird killer" stories emphasize.

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Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Preparing For Palestine

SEARCH BLOG: PALESTINE

About 3 months ago, I wrote about "creating Palestine" and the possible geographic dance that would take place. It looks as if Israel is preparing for that day:

Israel approves settlement plans

A bulldozer clears rocks at the construction site of new housing units in the Israeli settlement of Har Homa, East Jerusalem
The US claims Israeli settlement is a major obstacle to peace talks

The Israeli cabinet has approved plans by PM Benjamin Netanyahu to build hundreds of new homes in the West Bank, despite strong US opposition.

Israeli media reports suggest that up to 700 apartments could be built in Jewish settlements.

On Friday, the US urged its ally to abandon its West Bank construction agenda, for the sake of reviving Middle East peace talks.

A Hamas spokesman has said President Obama has "failed" over the issue.

Read more....

As I wrote back then, "When one looks at Israel and Palestinian-occupied territories, there is a very similar situation that is unlikely to be the solution in President Obama's speech."

President Obama and his surrogate, Hillary Clinton, have demonstrated time and again that they have little grasp of how to deal with both our enemies and our friends.

Unfortunately, that's what happens when you have left-wing ideologues running our government.

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Monday, September 07, 2009

Unofficial End Of Summer In Michigan

SEARCH BLOG: HOLIDAYS

Labor Day weekend marks the unofficial end of summer in Michigan. The calendar tells us that we still have a couple of weeks to go until the autumnal solstice, but school is starting, football is being televised, you need a jacket for the evenings, and leaves are beginning to lose their green.

Here are some weekend images from our lake and my brother's farmland retreat showing the transition to that most invigorating season. Click on images for larger views. [use CTRL - or CTRL + to adjust picture size for your screen after you open the larger view]
















































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Happy Labor Day From President Obama

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA and ECONOMY

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
19994.34.44.24.34.24.34.34.24.24.14.14.0
20004.04.14.03.84.04.04.04.13.93.93.93.9
20014.24.24.34.44.34.54.64.95.05.35.55.7
20025.75.75.75.95.85.85.85.75.75.75.96.0
20035.85.95.96.06.16.36.26.16.16.05.85.7
20045.75.65.85.65.65.65.55.45.45.55.45.4
20055.25.45.25.25.15.15.04.95.05.05.04.8
20064.74.84.74.74.74.64.74.74.54.44.54.4
20074.64.54.44.54.54.64.74.74.74.84.74.9
20084.94.85.15.05.55.65.86.26.26.66.87.2
20097.68.18.58.99.49.59.49.7




Don't you find that Stimulus-ating? But don't worry... the green jobs are coming. Just ask Van Jones... no, he resigned so you'll have to ask the President himself. But first the Obama administration has to kill off the old "greedy capitalist" economy and that might take a little while longer. So don't be surprised to see those "victims of capitalism" numbers growing until Cap and Trade, health care "reform," and expansion and increases in taxes can be implemented. Then those numbers should come down.

Oh, wait... it's still Bush's fault. It will continue to be Bush's fault. Look, there is a Bush fault over there....
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Sunday, September 06, 2009

"Czar" Van Jones Resigns

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS and OBAMA

One of Obama's non-Constitutional Czars deposed; the rest should go, too.

From The New York Times:

White House Adviser on ‘Green Jobs’ Resigns

By SARAH WHEATON
Published: September 6, 2009

Van Jones resigned as the White House’s environmental jobs “czar” on Saturday, after weeks of controversy over his past comments and affiliations had slowly escalated.

Van Jones speaking at a conference in Las Vegas last month.


Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Appointed as a special adviser for “green jobs” by President Obama, Mr. Jones did not go through the traditional vetting process for administration officials who must be confirmed by the Senate. So it was not until recently that some of Mr. Jones’s past actions received broad airing, including his derogatory statements about Republicans in February and his signature on a 2004 letter suggesting that former President George W. Bush might have knowingly allowed the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to occur in order to use them as a “pre-text to war.”

Read more here....
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Saturday, September 05, 2009

The U.S. Executive Branch

SEARCH BLOG: GOVERNMENT and OBAMA

The incomprehensible labyrinth we call the U.S. government has expanded significantly under the administration of President Barack Obama. Just for the fun of it, I attempted to find some sort of organization chart that gives a decent picture of the network that is supposed to be so transparent. I found these interesting views at Netage.com although they really didn't shed much insight except that the organization was impossible to administer. And now "czars" have been added....


What does this mean?

Bloomberg.com had an article back in March, 2009 that addressed the problem head on:

President Barack Obama’s decision to place czars above Cabinet-level agencies presents dangers beyond confusion over who’s in charge and an organizational chart that looks like pasta carbonara.

There’s also the potential for a constitutional crisis.

Obama’s czars, the most ever appointed by an administration, are likely to have the authority to influence or make decisions for Cabinet-level agencies. Yet they aren’t confirmed by Congress and don’t have to respond to pesky requests to testify before oversight committees.

“The rapid and easy accumulation of power by White House staff can threaten the constitutional system of checks and balances,” Senator Robert Byrd, a West Virginia Democrat, warned in a letter to the White House.

Read more here...

Yet, for some strange reason under the Democratic Party controlled Congress, President Obama has yet to be called out on this un-Constitutional organization. How far are we from becoming another Venezuela?



Well, that's just not fair focusing on a nut job. What about the rest of them? Here's the list via Free Market Mojo:
Now, does that make you feel better?

Too bad there are no Cabinet members or agencies responsible for those areas.

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Friday, September 04, 2009

Michigan Budget Nonsense

SEARCH BLOG: MICHIGAN ECONOMY

With all of the crises at the national level... the economy, the war in the Middle East, climate bills, cap and trade bills, EPA mandates, health care de-privatizing... it is sometimes easy to forget that individual states are struggling.

California certainly had its share of headlines with payment by IOUs and various overstretching. Florida's housing bust was epic. North Dakota was generally spared.

Here in Michigan we grabbed headlines with the General Motors and Chrysler bailout and bankruptcy. Behind those headlines was the collapse of the housing market... a result of 15% unemployment and uncertainty about the viability of GM and Chrysler and maybe even Ford Motor Company. Nevertheless, despite all of these problems, the state government pretty much went on as if little was changed.

For the Fiscal Year 2007, the state's budget was $42.9 billion. That was before the real damage was done to the Michigan economy. Now that the state is in shambles and population is declining, the governor has a Fiscal Year 2010 budget of $44.1 billion. FY08 was $43.6 billion; FY09 was $44.8 billion [source - see page C30 at the end of a very long and verbose document] so I guess this is the government's version of sacrificing.
Now there probably is some smoke and mirrors as well as Federal stimulus money in there, but it appears that the state has taken its cue from the Federal government... money is no object.

So, when I received the following email from Phyllis Browne, Communications Manager, Michigan House of Representatives [the Republican side?], my reaction was "lots of talk followed by lots of talk followed by another big budget."

Calling today's 11th-hour marathon budget session a step in the right direction, Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop and House Republican Leader Kevin Elsenheimer today invited the governor and House Democrats to make their outline to balance the budget public and demonstrate their sincerity by moving it through the legislative process.

Bishop said his caucus already sent House Democrats and the governor their plan to balance the budget without raising taxes, noting a clear difference in priorities between Republicans and Democrats.

"The Senate Republicans have a public plan that has been vetted through committees and passed by the full Senate," said Bishop, R-Rochester. "We are looking forward to a budget process that is transparent and clear, not held behind closed doors with unaccountable and unelected mediators. As we close in on the Oct. 1 deadline, we are also looking for expedient action from the House and governor."

Elsenheimer noted the House Republican plan to Reinvigorate, Reinvest and Reform Michigan was introduced 43 days ago on July 22. The House Republican plan creates jobs, balances the budget without raising taxes, and preserves stimulus dollars to jumpstart the state's economy.

 "Republicans have a plan to solve the budget crisis without raising taxes - and we're ready to balance the budget today," said Elsenheimer, R-Kewadin. "The GOP plans are on the table, before the public, ready to go. I'm disappointed that the state is in the shadows of another government shutdown after the House Democrats' summer vacation, and when the ideas proposed today start to move in the form of legislation, then we'll know they are serious."

Show me less money.... Meanwhile, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Detroit's economic problems alone will siphon off billions from state coffers given the reluctance of state government to eliminate programs that aren't working and take some creative steps toward solving intractable problems.

The budget number for 2010 should be considerably less than the peak-economy number in 2007 [after adjustment for one-time Federal funds]. If it isn't, nothing has changed except government has grown while the rest of the state has shrunken. It looks as if we will tax our way to prosperity. That should drive business our way... or is is away?

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Thursday, September 03, 2009

Obama Launches Price Controls

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA and ECONOMICS and HEALTH CARE

The Thursday edition of The Wall Street Journal headline read: "Obama Relaunches Health Bid." However, the real story was not that at all; the real story was the stealth imposition of price controls... in a vacuum.

"But if prices don't fall by a certain percentage and coverage doesn't expand beyond 95% in a given state after a time, the plan would call for adding a government insurance option to that state's choices, according to the aides familiar with the White House conversations."
Let's look at that a bit more closely.

  1. The government mandates that prices for insurance fall by an unstated percentage... for the same coverage... for reduced coverage... for expanded coverage... no clear definition there... or the government steps in.
  2. The government mandates that coverage must expand beyond 95% of all people in the state... legal U.S. residents... legal U.S. residents and legal foreign persons... legal U.S. residents, legal foreign persons, and all illegal foreign persons... no clear definition there... or the government steps in.
Let's presume that:
  1. The government mandates that all people regardless of legal or illegal status must be covered beyond 95% of the total population and it is the responsibility of the insurance companies to be sure they are covered even though the insurance companies have no authority to force anyone to be covered and, furthermore, even though the federal government would make it illegal to not have insurance, the federal government would not accept responsibility for achieving the 95% coverage in any particular state. That's certainly clear enough.
  2. The coverage mandated at reduced prices would still require the insurance companies to cover new procedures regardless of the expense of those procedures if the government deemed those procedure to be worthwhile and even if covering those procedure meant providing insurance coverage at a loss. That's certainly clear enough.
  3. Insurance coverage for high-risk individuals would be mandated as part of the reduced prices-expanded coverage requirements thereby insuring coverage will be provided at a loss. That's certainly clear enough.
  4. If one insurance company fails to meet its obligations under the mandate causing the state mandate requirements to be missed, all insurance companies in the state will be held responsible for the failure and subject to government controlled, taxpayer funded competition. That's certainly clear enough.
From the government's point of view, this is a no-brainer. After all, the government has operated at a loss forever and has been able to expand its operations and coverage of society's actions, so why shouldn't insurance companies be expected to do the same?

Next on the list:
  • Public option car and truck insurance with mandatory coverage requirements for those who ignore present mandatory requirements.
  • Public option homeowners and renters insurance with mandatory coverage requirements for those who chose to not have insurance.
  • Public option dental insurance with mandatory coverage requirements for those who choose to pay for their own dental care.
In each case, insurance companies will be responsible for making sure the mandates are met... at reduced prices.

Next for price controls... reductions:
  • Rent
  • Fuel
  • Food
  • Clothing
  • Transportation
Of course, you'll note that federal and state governments are exempt from any of the above regulations and mandates and cost reductions.
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Reading What Smart People Write About Health Care

SEARCH BLOG: HEALTH CARE

Ever since the two prominent Detroit papers decided that 3-day per week delivery was sufficient and that most people would be happy reading their newspapers online, I have acquired some new hardcopy subscriptions including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, and Forbes... among others.

One of my sons suggested that I subscribe to The New York Times, but I've found that publication to be New York centric [obviously] and quite a bit full of itself... although I keep an online feed on my Google homepage and read it daily. It seems to be the Vogue or Vanity Fair of the newspaper set... lots of fluff and questionable content. The business publications, on the other hand, are read by people who are putting their money where their mouths are. They don't want a lot of pseudo-philosophical-scientific babbling; they want facts and analyses that are derived from those facts... not political preconceptions.

For example, Forbes had this interesting opinion from David Furness is head of strategic development at the Social Market Foundation.

The truth is that the perfect healthcare system does not exist -- each country reflects its own social priorities. There is no right answer, especially as healthcare budgets continue to rise across the developed world. In the United States, universal coverage is sacrificed in favor of individual choice and control. Voters are worried that a government run system may deny them their choice of doctor or drug, or even see granny up before a "death panel." In the U.K., while universal access is a core principle, survival rates from serious diseases lag behind those of other developed countries and choice for patients is extraordinarily limited.

Read more....

In that same issue, Rich Karlgaard, Forbes publisher wrote a piece called "Our Health Care Crisis: Age, Obesity, Lawyers."

Age, obesity and defensive medicine are the trillion-dollar elephants in the room. Whether your preference for health care reform springs from the political left or right, you have to start with these three facts. Otherwise, you're just a political bloviator.

Read more....
Forbes even gives "air time" to those you might least expect to receive it.

Which country do you admire most for its health system?

I can't claim to be an expert. All I can say is that I remember when the National Health Service was coming in. I was in Parliament with health minister [and founder of the NHS] Nye Bevan, and I think it has worked very well. When Mrs. Thatcher said the NHS was "safe in our hands," it was recognition by her that people liked it and wanted it to be saved.

What do you say to people who say the NHS is a socialistic system?

I don't see it in ideological terms. I know in America there are a lot of people, including my wife who is American, who have been denied medical care because they lost their jobs. I worry for them, and I see in this country that there are no anxieties of this character. That's how I see it--in a very practical way.

Read more....

Sorry, The New York Times, but your politically biased Obama's-the-Way,-the-Truth,-and-the-Light "news" doesn't do much more than give me a headache... or grist for this.

By the way, in case you think that I just joined the discussion on health care issues, especially government managed and controlled health care systems, read this. I was correct then and I believe what I have written recently is correct as well.

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Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Rep. Gary Peters Town Hall Meeting

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From RightMichigan.com:

After hearing about all of the ruckus that was taking place all across the country at town hall meetings, I read that Congressman Gary Peters was hosting one himself down in West Bloomfield and decided to head down to check it out for myself.

A little over an hour later, after weaving in and out of orange barrels and cones from federal stimulus projects, I arrived in West Bloomfield, where I watched would-be town hall attendees form a line that was reminiscent of the last time I waited to hop on Cedar Point's Millennium Force. But only 800 of the literally thousands that showed up would be allowed to participate in what both local Republicans and Democrats promised would be another rancorous battle in the war over health care reform (read more).

West Bloomfield is a wealthy, predominantly Republican area... so note what was said about the audience mix.

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Moral Superiority Or Stupidity?

SEARCH BLOG: TERRORISM

From The Times
September 2, 2009

Grieving mothers still wait for answers on Beslan massacre anniversary

The same mentality that brought our 9/11 tragedy brought this horrific tragedy to Russia. But let's step back from those events and focus on how we might be giving the perpetrators of such events too rough an interrogation.

Better to let thousands of children die than frighten one terrorist with fake drowning. Better to punish the interrogators than the perpetrators. The Scots have set a fine example: let them all go free... for humanitarian reasons.
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.
George Orwell, "1984", first sentence
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Tuesday, September 01, 2009

August 2009 Weather

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

August continued the string of abnormally cool months in southeastern Michigan. Despite a brief mid-month warming, overall temperatures were more like June normal temperatures. The average temperature here was 2.2°F colder than normal.

The 19-month variance from normal was 2.64°F below normal. The 3-month variance for June - August was 4.4°F below normal. That is significant.

There have been 155 more day below normal than above since February 2008... or 63.4% of the days were below normal. That is significant.

Nevertheless, we are talking about weather... not climate. As I have indicated many times, there is no significant change in U.S. climate. There have been climate oscillations and we may be entering the cooling phase of these oscillations quite possibly driven by a lethargic sun. That will be readily apparent in a few years if the weather continues this pattern.

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CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)