READ ABOUT DETROIT AND SOLUTIONS TO ITS PROBLEMS. CLICK HERE.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

They Asked For It

SEARCH BLOG: CULTURE

According to the [Just World Theory] hypothesis, people have a strong desire or need to believe that the world is an orderly, predictable, and just place, where people get what they deserve. Such a belief plays an important function in our lives since in order to plan our lives or achieve our goals we need to assume that our actions will have predictable consequences....
Ironically, then, the belief in a just world may take the place of a genuine commitment to justice. For some people, it is simply easier to assume that forces beyond their control mete out justice. When that occurs, the result may be the abdication of personal responsibility, acquiescence in the face of suffering and misfortune, and indifference towards injustice. Taken to the extreme, indifference can result in the institutionalization of injustice.
[source]
In a world filled with horrible stories of human suffering, there is, according to the summary above, a thought process that says that people get what they deserve.  The opposite thinking is that people are innocent victims of circumstances.

Below are some situations that are uncomfortable to discuss, but exemplify the problems associated with broad-brushed positions.  In all of these examples, people were hurt or killed, so this is not an attempt to trivialize that.  It is, rather, an attempt to show that how these situations are perceived are subject to bias and context.

These are examples, in a Just World, of people who get what they deserve:
  • women who get raped because they went to a bar wearing skimpy, sexually provocative clothing, picked up a stranger and got in his car
  • high-school dropouts who cannot get a job and don't have the resources to improve themselves
  • Muslim women who are jailed for adultery after they got raped by a relative or because they broke cultural laws leading to the rape
  • Nigerian Christians who get massacred for attending church in a Muslim country

These are examples of innocent victims of random injustice:
  • women who get raped because they went to a bar wearing skimpy, sexually provocative clothing, picked up a stranger and got in his car
  • high-school dropouts who cannot get a job and don't have the resources to improve themselves
  • Muslim women who are jailed for adultery after they got raped by a relative or because they broke cultural laws leading to the rape
  • Nigerian Christians who get massacred for attending church in a Muslim country


Hmmm.
  • ... an online study of 1,061 Londoners between the ages of 18 and 50 called “Wake Up to Rape” found that more than half of women surveyed believed rape victims should take some responsibility for what happened. Of these women, almost three quarters believed that if a victim got into bed with the assailant before the attack they should accept some responsibility and one-third blamed victims who dressed provocatively or had gone back to the attacker’s house for a drink, according to BBC News.  [source]    ...    COMPLICIT OR VICTIM?

    Chief Walter Armstrong held a press conference in the Municipal Courtroom to announce the arrest of two suspects in the house burglary and rape of a disabled person on Drummond Street.
      [source]    ...     COMPLICIT  OR VICTIM? 
  • Despite decades of decline in teen pregnancies, the United States still has the highest teen birthrate in the industrialized world. Pregnancy is also the number one reason girls drop out of school. Research shows that 3 out of 10 girls will be pregnant at least once before they turn 20. And almost half of female dropouts said becoming a parent was a factor in dropping out, according to a survey by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. [source]    ...     COMPLICIT  OR VICTIM?  

    Many young, poor black men are stuck in poor neighbourhoods with limited licit economic opportunities and failing schools. The incentive to finish high school is quite low, and the incentive to turn to illicit activity is high. Obviously, individuals should be held responsible for their own actions. At the same time, government, at all levels, seems to go out of its way to make it easy for many disadvantaged young men to follow the route out of school and into prison, and very difficult to make it back on the road to licit employment. [source]    ...     COMPLICIT  OR VICTIM?  
  • A WOMAN in Saudi Arabia sentenced to six months in jail and 200 lashes despite being gang raped has confessed to adultery, the Justice Ministry said yesterday as it tried to fend off mounting criticism.
    Despite being assaulted by seven men who kidnapped her and a male companion at knifepoint, the 19-year-old woman was sentenced in November last year to 90 lashes.  The judge sentenced her for being in a car with a man who was not her relative, a taboo in the Muslim kingdom. [source]    ...     COMPLICIT  OR VICTIM? 

  • Women returned to clean the blood from St. Theresa Catholic Church on Monday and one man wept uncontrollably amid its debris as a Nigerian Christian association demanded protection for its churches.  At least 35 people died at St. Theresa and dozens more were wounded as radical Muslim militants launched coordinated attacks across Africa's most populous nation within hours of one another. Four more people were killed in other violence blamed on the group known as Boko Haram. [source]    ...     COMPLICIT  OR VICTIM?  

    KANO, Nigeria, May 5 (AFP) - More than 200 Muslims are dead and 120 missing after Christian militia attacked a central Nigerian town, one of Nigeria's most senior Islamic leaders said Wednesday, branding the assault "mass murder". [source]
      ...    
    COMPLICIT  OR VICTIM?
That's the trouble with life: answers are not always yes or no, 1 or 0.  Life is messy.  

Are there innocent victims?  Yes.
Are there participatory victims?  Yes.
Are there people in unfortunate circumstances who are not victims?  Yes.
You need to ask the right questions to get the right answers.  Generalities are poor substitutes.

"A big problem with seeking right answers is that the ideologies intervene.  The answers appear to be right because they satisfy our prejudices, inclinations, even our heart, and only secondarily our mind.  Seeking right questions, on the other hand, can provide a clarity of direction and consequences.  So how do you teach people to ask the right questions?"
  -  Shannon Skousgaard, Ph.D.; Professor Emerita, Associate Professor of Philosopy, George Mason University


2012 IS HERE

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Monday, January 09, 2012

Time Out

SEARCH BLOG: FOOTBALL

The Military Strategy Of The Commander In Chief

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA

President Obama and former CIA Director and currently Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, announced sweeping changes to the U.S. military.

Now that the Middle East has become an international peace zone, the President wants to draw down U.S. land forces and shift high-tech resources to the Asian front where massive hostilities with China are considered a foregone conclusion.  The focus will be on the use of this  high-tech approach designed to intimidate the several million man Chinese armed forces.

In Tom Clancy's SSN fashion, China is seen to be the logical source of future threats to the U.S. and the rest of the world... once it has drained every cent of the world's wealth through selling low-priced toys that cannot be manufactured anyplace else but China and built up its army, navy, air force, space force, and Modern Warfare force.  This will be followed by the takeover of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Los Angeles unless the U.S. can do something... anything... maybe. [STRATEGY ONE: WE CAN DOWNPLAY PRESENT ACTUAL THREATS AND HOSTILITIES TO FOCUS ON POSSIBLE ONES]
As part of the strategy to contain China, the U.S. has decided to give all of its anti-missile secrets to Russia in the hope that the Russians will not join China against it.  This stroke of military genius follows an obscure Central Asian strategist who attempted to build his long-forgotten country's security by giving away military information to Attila the Hun on the premise that Attila would not fear them if they showed their good intentions.  Attila did not fear them.

Meanwhile, President Obama is also encouraging more U.S. corporations to invest in China saying, "The Chinese need technology transfer, legal or otherwise, to ensure that they will be able to continue supplying us all of the things that we currently make for ourselves.  The U.S. cannot morally keep either its military or civilian technology secrets from those who want them."  This policy, of course, will not apply to U.S. citizens who attempt to obtain such secrets... especially military secrets.  They will be tried for espionage. [STRATEGY TWO: IGNORANCE IS THE ROOT OF ALL PROBLEMS SO WE JUST NEED TO BE MORE FORTHCOMING WITH OUR SECRETS TO OUR COMPETITORS AND ADVERSARIES]

Some nations and three people in the U.S. have expressed concern about President Obama's notion that the hostilities in the Middle East are over.  They note that the precipitous withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq followed by negotiations to turn over Afghanistan to the Taliban (as long as they really promised to be really good) might have been grounded less in reason and more in simply being tired of the whole thing.  Meanwhile, President Obama urged Israel to consider Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinians to be simply good neighbors who want "to take down the fence that separates them."  He also noted that his Administration plans to stand behind Israel 100%... way behind... completely out of the picture behind. [STRATEGY THREE: IF WE APPEAR TO MAKE A REALLY GOOD EFFORT, IT IS APPROPRIATE TO NOT COMPLETE THE EFFORT]
The U.S. military should be able to ensure national security with smaller conventional ground forces, the U.S. president said. He vowed to get rid of "outdated Cold War-era systems" [nuclear weapons, missiles, bombers] while investing in the capabilities needed for the future, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as counterterrorism, among others. [source] 
It appears we will watch adversaries into submission.

The President hopes that these measures will free up to $1 trillion over the next decade.  Said the President, "We'll miss a few things, such as a standing army, but that is a small price to pay for Middle East peace and ensuring that my rounds of golf in Hawaii are not threatened by hoards of Chinese seamstresses overrunning the islands."  [STRATEGY FOUR: MILITARY STUFF IS REALLY BOTHERSOME SO MAKING THE MILITARY MUCH SMALLER FREES UP MY TIME]



My, doesn't Gen. Dempsey look pleased?


All right.  There was some tongue-in-cheek in this post... but I'm not laughing... and neither should you.  Read the links in this post and you'll understand more.

See also:
TUESDAY, JANUARY 03, 2012Snatching Defeat

2012 IS HERE

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Sunday, January 08, 2012

Asking Some Right Questions

SEARCH BLOG: TAXES and POLITICS

Note: special thanks to Shannon Skousgaard, Ph.D.; Professor Emerita, Associate Professor of George Mason University, and private consultant on ethics in business, for suggestions.
Part of the great divide in U.S. politics centers on economic matters and what are appropriate expectations of the people and of the government.

From Friday's post:
Critical thinking doesn't first seek the right answers; it seeks the right questions.  The right answers follow....
Current estimates of the national debt are in the $15 trillion-plus range; current estimates of the percent of people not paying federal income taxes is approaching 50%,  Clearly, something is wrong... if the goal is zero on both counts; clearly the answers being given to correcting the situation are not so clear.

The first question we should ask is whether the numbers are correct.  In the case of cumulative budget deficits [spending more than receiving], the number appears to be reasonably well agreed upon.  In the case of income tax avoidance [legal or not], the number may be misleading [image source].

While it is certainly correct that a large portion of those living in the U.S. do not pay income taxes... after filing and receiving refunds... everybody pays "payroll taxes" [why isn't it referred to as Social Security taxes? ... because it doesn't necessarily go to Social Security since Lyndon Johnson raided that piggy bank].  And everyone pays federal gasoline taxes and the myriad federal surcharge fees.  Rare is the person who escapes the grasping fingers of the U.S. government.  Of course, it is wholly reasonable to ask if anyone should avoid all federal taxes.

The argument to increase federal income tax rates on all or some taxpayers is somewhat of a red herring given that would have minimal impact on the revenue stream from which the government spends.  It is more of an emotional "share the pain" cry.  This is a case of providing an answer without asking the correct question which is: what is needed to run the federal government efficiently, effectively, and appropriately?

Notice that the question did not ask:

  • how can the government increase revenues?
  • who should pay more taxes?
  • which programs should be cut?
  • what government programs should be privatized?
... among others.

No, the question that has not been answered is: what is needed to run the federal government efficiently, effectively, and appropriately?  It's that last bit that gets ignored by most of the answers being offered... what is appropriate?

[image source] There is an obvious disconnect between the legislative process that determines budgets and spending and taxes and programs... and establishing an efficient, effective, and appropriate government.  Most of the answers regarding determining what the government should be doing and how it should be doing it boil down to: any way we want and any way we can.

This seems to be satisfying very few people and certainly does not answer the question of what is appropriate much less how the government can be run efficiently and effectively.

Perhaps the underlying cause of the inability to answer that seemingly simple question is that, as Americans, we no longer have an overriding vision of what America is and what it means to be an American.  Are we the land of the free and the home of the brave?  Are we a "melting pot" where everyone adds to the strength and vigor of the nation?  Or are we a "cultural mosaic"... a new Europe... living in the same large geography, but in separate enclaves with separate values and concepts of what America and its government should be? [image source]

Or are we a fragmented free-for-all where cultural values have no value, diversity is conflict, and where law has ceased to have the force of law and political views determine which laws will be enforced and how they will be interpreted?

If, as the Washington Post wrote, our Supreme Court, arbiter of the law of the land, is to be populated with judges who are swayed by their own personal experiences and feelings rather than critical evaluation based solely on the law, then those judges are bringing their own answers, before raising questions dictated by the law itself.
"Together with Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan's confirmation would represent a shift toward a younger, changing court, one that values experiences outside the courtroom and emphasizes personal interactions as much as deep knowledge of the law." The Washington Post [emphasis mine]
If you combine a contentious Congress that votes on, without reading, legislation changing the basic social and power structure of the country... with predisposed Supreme Court justices... and on top of that, a President who chooses which laws should be enforced and which should be ignored or when he will abide by the Constitution and when it is simply too inconvenient, then the framework within which the right questions can be asked is broken... and any answers regarding the efficiency, effectiveness, and appropriateness of the federal government become meaningless.

Instead, we get un-elected "czars", unmanageable laws, overbearing regulations, and massive special interest giveaways... all of which go unchallenged and unabated.

It is altogether likely that our federal government is an excellent reflection of who and what we are becoming as a nation and what has become of our culture... a reflection of ourselves that most people... when asked... do not like, but can't quite understand why.  The people and politicians have a lot of answers, but just not the right questions.

Indeed, if this is the case, it would seem the first question should be: "How can the constitutional and legal framework for the federal government be restored?"   Then the questions regarding efficiency, effectiveness, and appropriateness can be addressed.

Related post:
FRIDAY, JUNE 05, 2009Diversity Or Fragmentation
Update - From the U.S. House Of Representatives:


2012 IS HERE

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Saturday, January 07, 2012

Comments Now Enabled

During the 15 months this blog was inactive, comments were disabled.  They are now enabled.

2012 IS HERE

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Bowled Over

SEARCH BLOG: FOOTBALL

College football began in August and will finish the season on January 9.  I'm as big a fan as anyone else, but a 5-month season seems a bit excessive.  These are students in college who are supposed to be working toward a degree that will serve them for the remainder of their working lives, but it is hard to imagine balancing the demands of the classroom with a 5-month schedule for just one sport.

I guess my objection is not so much to the regular schedule... which has been extended over time, but the proliferation of bowl games.  When you have a bowl game for 6-6 Illinois versus 6-7 UCLA, I think the concept of bowl games may have been stretched to the breaking point.  A quick glance at some of the bowls shows that many of them exist as TV filler only.  The stadium stands are empty; the only cheering seems to be from the 12 cheerleaders.  The list at ESPN shows 35 bowl games.  Can football fans be that hungry for games?

Some of the first bowls on the schedule seem to have come from a corporate advertising firm.   The "Famous Idaho Potato Bowl?"  Next year we may get the "Wisconsin Dairy String Cheese Bowl."  I'd be embarrassed to send a team to some of these much less attend one... just because of the name.  Maybe they should just call them as they are: "The 69th Ranked Versus 70th Ranked Bowl."  Can't you hear the chants in the stands: "We're 69th, we're 69th, we're 69th!"

And then you get to the final weekend before the national championship game and you have the BVAA Compass Bowl [I give up; what's that?] and the Godaddy.com Bowl between teams that never made the national sports news during the year.  What a waste of a sports weekend!

Maybe it's time to watch figure skating with my wife.  Nah, I'll check the lake to see if the ice is thick enough to fish on.  That's more exciting.

What would I do differently?

That's 13 bowl games over 4 weeks.  Seems enough.  Selections via BCS or coaches poll or something different.  In order to implement a 4-weekend playoff, the conference/non-conference schedule would have to be limited to 10 games... maximum.  This would include conference championship games.  This doesn't solve the problem of an excessively long season, but solves the problem of an excessively long list of bowl games.  The playoffs could be limited to the top 8 teams with a 3-weekend playoff.  Along with the other limitation would keep the total maximum schedule to 13 weeks for the playoff participants.

Naturally, there are two very strong objections to this scheme:

  1. Significant loss of income to the NCAA, NCAA schools, and advertising media.
  2. Significant loss of football viewing time by really crazy people.

Besides, there are professional football teams to watch as well as basketball and hockey... or figure skating.

2012 IS HERE

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Friday, January 06, 2012

Damn Politicians Lie To Us

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS and TRUTH

A major reason for returning to blogging is that this is going to be a great year for listening to claims of political truth and lying.  Sides are being chosen to pick the truth... which will also determine who is lying.  Should you believe Fox or CNN?

I wrote some common generalizations on this blog seven years ago to argue the point that we use generalizations to avoid thinking about subjects. It's those types of shortcuts we take that inhibit critical thinking:

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 06, 2004Truth or Consequences

"Republicans are those who support big business instead of the common person; Democrats are those who make the common man dependent upon the largess of the government. Ah, now we are getting somewhere. Generalizations based on... trends? mission statements? posturing? hyperbole?"
Click the link above for the whole post.

  If we already know the truth, there is no need for a question.  We know who is evil and who is good because we own the truth.  Myriad people supported each of these men below.  What more evidence do you need about the truth which they possessed?
 Is political truth only known by who is in power?

Or... is political truth an oxymoron?  Politics is digital; nature is analog.  

Critical thinking doesn't first seek the right answers; it seeks the right questions.  The right answers follow....

"A big problem with seeking right answers is that the ideologies intervene.  The answers appear to be right because they satisfy our prejudices, inclinations, even our heart, and only secondarily our mind.  Seeking right questions, on the other hand, can provide a clarity of direction and consequences.  So how do you teach people to ask the right questions?"
  -  Shannon Skousgaard, Ph.D.; Professor Emerita, Associate Professor of Philosopy, George Mason University

Indeed, how does one teach a nation?  

Sunday: Asking Some Right Questions




2012 IS HERE

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Thursday, January 05, 2012

A Natural Solution To Energy Needs

SEARCH BLOG: NATURAL GAS

I've written in the past about the potential for natural gas as an economical and abundant source of fuel for transportation.  What has been missing is, of course, sufficient local distribution... fueling stations.

First, why NG is so economically appealing:

The oil gas ratio hit a new record high today with gas trading at $3.11/mmBtu and WTI going for $101.25/bbl yielding an energy ratio of 5.61. In simple terms this means gas is trading at the equivalent of $18.05/bbl crude.  SOURCE
With gasoline somewhere around $3.30 per gallon, that's equivalent to roughly $0.60 per gallon presuming equivalent conversion and transportation costs.  Imagine what that could do for the cost of ownership.

A former colleague of mine said that he heard the CEO of an automotive company [we'll keep this anonymous] speaking in December and he mentioned that future automotive plans could include big-time expansion of CNG-powered vehicles [Compressed Natural Gas].  The idea and the vehicles are nothing new, of course.  Most likely, it is larger vehicles that would most benefit from this fuel because smaller vehicles present a challenge of fitting the CNG tank into a small space.  Taxi fleets have used them for decades.  And, recently, Ford Motor Company has has large success selling CNG-powered commercial Transit vans. 
A Transit Connect Taxi powered by compressed natural gas is fueled up at one of Chicago's first CNG stations.

What will be needed for private-use vehicles, as mentioned earlier, is broader NG distribution... probably CNG lanes at gas stations... or dedicated stations like the one above in Chicago.  NG already has the distributive infrastructure because millions of homes and businesses are already paying for the pipelines carrying that fuel.  It's simply the new distributive points that have to be built.  Of course, there is always the political process which may be a bigger obstacle than the technological ones.


Still, when it comes to supply, it looks as if there is an anticipation of surging supply ... despite or because of relative low prices and higher demand.
October was another record-setting month for the world's largest natural gas producer, as the U.S. produced all-time record amounts of both gross withdrawals and dry production (consumer-grade gas), according to new data released today by the Energy Information Administration.  SOURCE
Perhaps more people simply have the same attitude that I do:

When it comes to natural gas, I'm a big fan... and purchaser... personally.  Besides heating our home with a high efficiency NG furnace, we have an NG fireplace capable of heating our home [at about the same efficiency of 1980s furnaces] as an emergeny backup, plus an NG whole-house generator should there be power outages [our edge-of-the-suburban-area has lots of trees and overhead wires that tangle with each other during storms].

I think that Honda also may have had a good idea... just too far ahead of its time.
SUNDAY, MAY 31, 2009The Natural Gas Fuel Alternative For Trucks

2012 IS HERE

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Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Congratulations to Universities of Michigan and Michigan State

SEARCH BLOG: FOOTBALL

Fans united this week.
.

2012 IS HERE

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The Ron Paul Strategy

SEARCH BLOG:

Dr. Ron Paul has a loyal following... but is a candidate who is least likely to win a presidential election because his positions are too problematic for many... both Democrats and Republicans, but especially for those who call themselves Independents.  That's why I was surprised to read this article from a site that supports Dr. Paul:

You don’t have to register Republican to vote for Ron Paul this Primary Season, that is if you live in one of the 14 (+) “Open Primary” States that allow voters to choose which Party ballot to vote on when going to the polls. If you are an Independent or Democrat in an Open Primary State request the Republican ballot in order to vote Ron Paul for the Republican Nominee.  SOURCE
The reason that this is surprising is because this is exactly the tactic that the Democratic Party would love to deploy:


"Paul is doing the best job of getting those people who aren't really Republicans but say they're going to vote in the Republican primary," explains Smith. Among that group are libertarians, dissatisfied independents and Democrats who are "trying to throw a monkey wrench in the campaign by voting for someone who is more philosophically extreme," says Smith.  SOURCE
I believe this "monkey wrench" process is exactly how Sen. John McCain beat out Mitt Romney for the 2008 Republican nomination. McCain was seen as the weakest Republican choice and targeted by the Democratic Party to be the opponent of whomever was Democratic nominee.

This is a major weakness in the nominating process... one that simply cannot be corrected under the present primary scheme and one that favors an incumbent president by a substantial margin.

Dr. Paul appeals to many people who are looking for someone who is philosophically consistent about reducing the size of government and having a non-involved foreign policy.  While the majority of Republicans and many independents agree with the first position, the second position is a major concern in a world of aggressive nations and Islamic movements... the equivalent of a small child trying to hide from danger by covering its eyes.

If there ever was a real period of American isolationism, it was not within the past two centuries.  American expansionism focused on North America rather than elsewhere during the first half of the 19th century and the Civil War certainly focused the nation inward for awhile, but the 20th century showed that the United States was not a hands-off entity... nor would the world allow it to be.

Isolationism in the 21st century would be an extremely dangerous gamble during a time when rouge nations and groups of fanatics are bent on acquiring nuclear weapons and using them for blackmail... or worse.  Even Barack Obama has had to rethink non-involvement, although his implementation of foreign policy is like that of a toddler playing with blocks... chaotic at best.

Also see: Leftists May Boost Ron Paul in Iowa

2012 IS HERE

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Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Snatching Defeat

SEARCH BLOG: IRAQ

In recent weeks, President Obama has been praising himself for being one of the best presidents ever.  Part of that boast was based on foreign policy accomplishments.  Undoubtedly, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq ranks foremost in his mind.



Some see that differently:

You may perceive a common theme here.  This may be more than simple grousing

from political opponents.

Okay, so maybe he is only the 5th greatest president....  

2012 IS HERE

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Monday, January 02, 2012

Politics Is Digital But People Are Analog

SEARCH BLOG: POLITICS

Now that 2012 is upon us, the reality of the election process for a new president impinges on our thoughts more frequently.  Potential voters are called upon to combine their own personal biases with "positions" from various candidates and attempt to make a rational choice in the voting booth in November.  It is a choice made more complicated by incomplete information and outright distortions.

Politicians are busy trying to determine the direction toward which the wind is blowing so that they can adjust their proclamations accordingly.  The position of the day becomes fodder for charges of "flip-flopping."  Last year [or five years ago], so-and-so had a progressive rating of 7.9 out of 10 for this and now he is 3.2.  That means he has either learned his lesson or become disgustingly weak, depending on which bias against which the position is scored.  53.7% of voters favor such-and-such, up from 42.1% just a year ago.  We need [want] digital precision in our politics.

If we examine our daily personal lives, we can see how our thoughts our more analog... less precise.  We are more ... or less ... inclined about various issues, feelings, needs, etc. from day to day.  We are often ambivalent about something: we pity the plight of the poor family whose story has just been broadcast and wonder why they aren't being helped more, but we view lack of personal economic success as a failure of personal initiative.  In similar ambivalent thinking, some believe more taxes are necessary... just not from themselves.  This ambivalence reflects the analog nature of life... nothing is quite exact or precise... nothing is static.
A big part of the political problem is that we, as a nation, are just too big to be managed effectively on a national scale... and it will only get more difficult.  We want to believe that less than a thousand people at the top of the political pyramid can direct... effectively... the myriad interactions of hundreds of millions of individuals in thousands of communities and dozens of states.

What we get is more: more laws, regulations, directives, contradiction, waste, dislocation, and distortion.  In an attempt to standardize the nation, we trample the variation that makes the nation prosper and function effectively... often in the name of that variation or diversity.  No, that doesn't mean there should not be standards.  We don't want 300 different voltages being distributed along the electric grid.  But neither do we want a central government telling us what we must have in our diets or what level of health care is allowable.  Our national size forces us to accept some commonality, but it does not force us to accept that our personal rights must be trampled to protect someone else's personal rights.  It also doesn't mean that the government should pick winners and losers... something best left to the marketplace and millions of dynamic, self-interested decisions.

As citizens and voters, we will be faced with a "1 or 0" choice ... yes or no ... purely digital ... in November.  It will satisfy us for the moment and then we will begin the process of four more years of analog feelings about the results... more or less.  We will try to defend our reasoning with digital arguments, but the reality is analog... and that is why political reality is so confounding to most of us.  We must remember that the candidates for president are analog beings with analog contradictions ... despite the digital positions they may publicly state.  None of them is capable of being 1 or 0 on everything.

They will be more or less... and they will be more or less appealing depending on your personal biases.



That's not to say that the nature of politics is unnatural, but nature is analog after all.  Where are, for example, these politicians along your analog gauge?



2012 IS HERE

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Sunday, January 01, 2012

Happy New Year and Welcome Back

SEARCH BLOG: NEW YEAR

Welcome back!

After a 14 month absence from posting to this blog, I've decided to pick up the proverbial pen again... with some prodding from Jason Gillman who is a businessman, a county commissioner, and writes two political blogs out of Traverse City.  I am not foolish enough to think that my ramblings are going to change the course of history, but I will be satisfied if some people think more deeply and from other perspectives as a result of these posts.

There may not be new items every day, but the disruptions that affected my ability or willingness to express opinions here are largely behind me.  This site will require some updating and that will happen gradually.

So... for now, HAPPY NEW YEAR to all of you and let's get started.  Tomorrow?  What else... politics.

2012 IS HERE

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Can"t Find It?

Use the SEARCH BLOG feature at the upper left. For example, try "Global Warming".

You can also use the "LABELS" below or at the end of each post to find related posts.

Blog Archive

Cost of Gasoline - Enter Your Zipcode or Click on Map

CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)