SEARCH BLOG: EXTREME TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY, JUNE 10, 2012
So that you understand what this is about, a few years ago I was looking for evidence of global warming based on the assertion that such warming would be manifested by more extreme high temperatures. An analysis of our local temperatures revealed that most of the records occurred in the 1950s and 1980s, not in the last 20 years. That lead me to search for a more widespread sample... the U.S.___________________
The U.S. analysis showed that the late 1990s were indeed hot and had a greater than normal expected level of statewide monthly records. What it also showed, however, was that the 1930s had a much higher frequency of those records. Finally, it showed a sharp tailing off of such extremes beginning with the new century.
After reviewing NOAA database summaries and monthly descriptive reports between January 1999 and December 2008, I have completed the update of the monthly, statewide temperature records for both maximum and minimum temperatures.
One of premises of global warming theory is that:
These new peaks do not in themselves prove global warming, say scientists - but global warming makes them much more likely. "As you get a warming trend in temperatures, which is what we are observing, the risk of exceeding extreme temperatures increases dramatically," said Peter Stott of the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. [quoted in The Independent; 19 July 2006]These charts summarize the annual number of new monthly, statewide records. There is a limit of 600 maximum and 600 minimum records for this data set... 50 states times 12 months. New records are set and replace old records if the temperature ties or exceeds the old record ... a slight bias toward newer records.
You can download the protected Excel data file. The file has several worksheet tabs at the bottom of the screen. Some data analysis is in hidden columns, but the results are shown. Those are mainly pivot tables. My computer is protected by McAfee Viruscan, Windows Defender, and Malwarebytes Anti-Maleware, so the files should be completely clean.
For minimum statewide, monthly records:
These graphs are most extraordinary for the 2001 - 08 period because, according to the information available from NOAA, there has been almost a total absence of either new maximum or new minimum statewide records. It is as if 2001-08 was as "ordinary" as possible. There was no evidence of extreme warming or cooling based on temperature extremes.
I was so surprised by the outcome that I double-checked the data and reports. I found only two previously excluded minimum temperature records; Maine, January 1999, -55°F and Utah, January 2002, -62°F. These replaced records of several decades ago. One maximum record for Oklahoma in May 2000 had been reported as 114°F in Weatherford and for some reason was now showing up as 112°F in Altus. I did not change my information because the NOAA daily records did not verify the change in the monthly records... not sure why.The number of reporting sites vary from month to month in the database for some reason, but the number hovers around 190,000. That should certainly cover the geographic area reasonably well. As far as I can tell, the historical data for these records have not been adjusted upward or downward as has some analytical data used to show an upward trend increase recently... the records are the records.
ADDITIONAL GRAPHS HERE
It looks as if the 1st decade of the 21st century... at least for the U.S.... could be viewed as the most climatically boring rather than among the warmest... anti-climactic? So I ask again: where's the global warming?
The only heating seems to be among the politics of climate... and that may be cooling down.Looking ahead, it is likely that January 2009 may have at least two new monthly, statewide minimum temperature records... read more here.
ADDENDUM:As long as it works that way on the high side, too.
Just this week, NWS threw out what would have been an all-time state record for Illinois based on NWS citing lack of confidence in equipment, claiming “ASOS better than AWOS”. Anthony Watts responded in this post ”when we see public information statements like the one yesterday from the National Weather Service telling us that the ASOS system is more acceptable than an AWOS system calibrated just the day before, I’m quite comfortable in calling BS on that statement.”