Monday, January 19, 2009

Where Is The Global Warming... Extreme Temperature Records Update January 2009



SUNDAY, JUNE 10, 2012

So that you understand what this is about, a few years ago I was looking for evidence of global warming based on the assertion that such warming would be manifested by more extreme high temperatures. An analysis of our local temperatures revealed that most of the records occurred in the 1950s and 1980s, not in the last 20 years. That lead me to search for a more widespread sample... the U.S.

The U.S. analysis showed that the late 1990s were indeed hot and had a greater than normal expected level of statewide monthly records. What it also showed, however, was that the 1930s had a much higher frequency of those records. Finally, it showed a sharp tailing off of such extremes beginning with the new century.

After reviewing NOAA database summaries and monthly descriptive reports between January 1999 and December 2008, I have completed the update of the monthly, statewide temperature records for both maximum and minimum temperatures.

One of premises of global warming theory is that:
These new peaks do not in themselves prove global warming, say scientists - but global warming makes them much more likely. "As you get a warming trend in temperatures, which is what we are observing, the risk of exceeding extreme temperatures increases dramatically," said Peter Stott of the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. [quoted in The Independent; 19 July 2006]
These charts summarize the annual number of new monthly, statewide records. There is a limit of 600 maximum and 600 minimum records for this data set... 50 states times 12 months. New records are set and replace old records if the temperature ties or exceeds the old record ... a slight bias toward newer records.

You can download the protected Excel data file. The file has several worksheet tabs at the bottom of the screen. Some data analysis is in hidden columns, but the results are shown. Those are mainly pivot tables. My computer is protected by McAfee Viruscan, Windows Defender, and Malwarebytes Anti-Maleware, so the files should be completely clean.
Click images for larger view. For maximum statewide, monthly records:

For minimum statewide, monthly records:

These graphs are most extraordinary for the 2001 - 08 period because, according to the information available from NOAA, there has been almost a total absence of either new maximum or new minimum statewide records. It is as if 2001-08 was as "ordinary" as possible. There was no evidence of extreme warming or cooling based on temperature extremes.
I was so surprised by the outcome that I double-checked the data and reports. I found only two previously excluded minimum temperature records; Maine, January 1999, -55°F and Utah, January 2002, -62°F. These replaced records of several decades ago. One maximum record for Oklahoma in May 2000 had been reported as 114°F in Weatherford and for some reason was now showing up as 112°F in Altus. I did not change my information because the NOAA daily records did not verify the change in the monthly records... not sure why.
The number of reporting sites vary from month to month in the database for some reason, but the number hovers around 190,000. That should certainly cover the geographic area reasonably well. As far as I can tell, the historical data for these records have not been adjusted upward or downward as has some analytical data used to show an upward trend increase recently... the records are the records.


It looks as if the 1st decade of the 21st century... at least for the U.S.... could be viewed as the most climatically boring rather than among the warmest... anti-climactic? So I ask again: where's the global warming?
The only heating seems to be among the politics of climate... and that may be cooling down.
Looking ahead, it is likely that January 2009 may have at least two new monthly, statewide minimum temperature records... read more here.
Just this week, NWS threw out what would have been an all-time state record for Illinois based on NWS citing lack of confidence in equipment, claiming “ASOS better than AWOS”. Anthony Watts responded in this post ”when we see public information statements like the one yesterday from the National Weather Service telling us that the ASOS system is more acceptable than an AWOS system calibrated just the day before, I’m quite comfortable in calling BS on that statement.”
As long as it works that way on the high side, too.


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... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
[Image from:]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)