Is It Getting Warmer Or Cooler
SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER
The northern U.S. and most of Canada has had a "pause in global warming." That is to say that ΔCO2 → Δ° is temporarily invalid, but will be true again at some point in the future.
I started tracking daily temperature variations from normal in this area about 1-1/2 years ago using data from www.weather.com. This may not be the official temperatures from the Detroit Metropolitan Airport, but it represents a consistent look and is relatively easy to accomplish from the monthly details provided at that source.
Normal or average temperatures are so messy. What with the constant changes to the historical data from NOAA, it is difficult to pinpoint normal. But for this purpose, I used the averages publish by weather.com.
This is what the daily variation looks like:
Yes, ups and downs from daily averages. Note that for the entire period, the variation has been minus 2.66°F. That's more than twice the alarming global warming for the whole 20th century. Based on the hysteria about the global warming, we should be having major runs on fur stores around here.
Another way to look at the data is to simply say how many days have been above average and how many below. The chart below accumulates that information. Each day above average is a value of 1 and each day below average is a value of -1. The individual daily values are added to the previous total each day. The series starts like this:
The resulting chart looks like this:
1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 -1 8 -1 7 -1 6 -1 5 -1 4 -1 3 -1 2 1 3 -1 2 -1 1 -1 0
It helps to give the magnitude and trend of conditions versus normal. In this case, a cumulative 143 days lower than normal for the period. Based on 539 days of observations, this equates to about 63% of the days being below average. [a perfectly normal period would show zero cumulative plus or minus]The monthly look is this:
I'd say that no matter how you look at it, this record indicates a longer pause than some less informed observers recognize.
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