Monday, February 01, 2010

Climate Nonscience


It's always the story. It doesn't matter the facts; it's always the story. That is why it is not surprising to read increasing number of stories from the so-called "mainstream media" that are poking fun and holes in the global warming [aka 'climate change'] contingent... many identified by Marc Morano.

Let's get this clear: there has been apparent warming since the 1880s. The key word here is apparent.

Joe D'Aleo at Icecap and Anthony Watts at Watts Up With That? have been among the leaders of those challenging the data used to "prove" this warming. Their chief argument is that the data has been manipulated to such a degree that it is nearly meaningless... and that the measurement of data has become so poor because of improper weather station siting that many of the stations are reporting temperatures 2 to 5 degrees higher than actual.

Still another argument is that the loss of rural stations and the encroachment of cities on previously rural sites has created widespread Urban Heat Island effects.

This blogger has taken a slightly different approach to arrive at similar conclusions. While it is of utmost importance to examine the minutia of the temperature record and recording process, a macro look reveals much of the conclusions of the detailed examination.

A detailed explanation can be found here, but this is the nutshell version.

Rather than applying a linear trend analysis to the temperature history from 1880, use a non-linear analysis... break up the series into smaller time segments to see if there is a different pattern. The data shown here are U.S. temperature anomalies as reported by NOAA.

This results in a repeating low-high pattern or climate oscillation. If we accept the "official" weather data, it is clear the the current warm period is no warmer than the previous warm period. The last cool period may have been slightly warmer than the beginning cool period.

How would one interpret this look? First, any warming is not due to an increase in hot temperatures, but may be a result of less cold temperatures. This would be consistent with the Urban Heat Island concept that says the release of stored heat from the urban surroundings prevents temperatures from falling as much as they would in a nearby rural environment. An expanding UHI would result in higher minimum temperatures.

If, as Joe and Anthony argue, the recorded temperatures over the past few decades have been overstated because of poor siting, then one might say that the most recent warm period was actually cooler than the previous warm period. That contention would be consistent with the all-time, statewide, maximum temperature records that revealed the 1930s still have many more maximum temperature records than the 1990s.

Completing our macro look at the record, we would expect the next couple of decades to move toward the cool part of the normal climate oscillation.

This is certainly consistent with many "skeptics" including some Russian scientists who have been predicting a significant cooling for several years.

What about that apparent warming? That's the thing about a linear analysis. The mere choice of a starting point will have enormous influence on the trend line. Had we selected the high point of the cycle, the trend line would have been flat to down. Isn't that convenient for those who wish to alarm the world about warming?

Will the minimum temperatures be less cold? Possibly, if you live in a city with a weather stations located near an artificial heat source. At least the weather station will say you are not so cold.

You can read your mainstream media now. What they write may be nonscience, but the media climate toward global warming has certainly changed.



Can"t Find It?

Use the SEARCH BLOG feature at the upper left. For example, try "Global Warming".

You can also use the "LABELS" below or at the end of each post to find related posts.

Blog Archive

Cost of Gasoline - Enter Your Zipcode or Click on Map

CO2 Cap and Trade

There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates


SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
[Image from:]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

My photo
Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)