Monday, November 30, 2009

Climate, Conservation, And Ecology


Politics makes strange bedfellows. Scientists who normally take their work very seriously are willing to falsify information and results in order to achieve political ends. It is almost as if a scientist must get a Ph.D from the University of Machiavelli in order to be taken seriously... and get $ millions in government grants.

There has always been some element of politics... or religion... in science. After all, facts have to be interpreted so that the truth can be acceptable. While this does get in the way of understanding, it is important to the social hierarchy. It is politically and spiritually important that the science is settled.

"Climategate" is nothing more than business-as-usual in the world of science... especially nascent or "soft" sciences where it is important to have answers regardless of whether the science is "settled" or not. No answers; no money. This process also leads to some confusion among those who have only casual understanding of the various sciences.

Climate studies become entangled with ecology which becomes entangled with conservation... sort of the three faces of Eve. Rather than seeing specialties as contributing to a balance of actions, specialists want to be the driving force for policy. Hence, hyperbole... hockey sticks... dying polar bears... inundated cities... fraud.

Even physicists... those working in the "hard" science... recognize that their role is not to make policy, but to contribute to understanding. Physicists and governments work together in a different mode. Take for instance the "Large Hadron Collider continues is finally getting serious, pushing the limits of particle physics."

Sure, there are politics involved, but only for the purpose of gaining funding to gain knowledge... not for gaining funding to gain funding.

The LHC particle accelerator, located beneath the Franco-Swiss border, is now the world's highest energy particle accelerator. (Source: Entropy Bound)

The LHC is packed with some of the world's most advanced electronics and should unlock some incredible physics secrets. (Source: Terra Cotta)
There is rarely the Greenpeace mentality among physicists that tries to force economic, social, and psychological change so blatantly associated with the so-called Anthropogenic Global Warming pseudo-science that corrupts sound economic decision-making and creates hardships rather than societal advances.

It is time for these softer sciences to get back to science and away from politics. It is time for politicians to get back to improving the quality of life for their countries rather than creating hardships based on fraudulent science.

The studies of climate, ecology, and conservation efforts should focus on gaining knowledge that can be applied in an open and creative manner by everyone, rather than creating unsound... dysfunctional... mandates and policies that are self-defeating and economically harmful.

The proof is in the pudding.

Note: a related post from Dennis Mangan.



Detroit Housing Improving


A Climategate interlude....

Judging from the size of the annual Wayne County foreclosure announcements that appeared in the combine Detroit Free Press/The Detroit News on Sunday, the availability of those $2,000 homes is gradually shrinking. However, it is difficult to assign that change to greater demand for homes or even more people paying the mortgages for their homes rather than walking away.

Perhaps it is just that the size of the newspaper pages has been reduced.

But let's put a good spin on it anyway [click images for larger view]:

Full List: America's Fastest-Recovering Cities. Check near the bottom.

This is one of the first close-to-realistic assessments I have read in awhile... from basketball player turned businessman turned mayor: Dave Bing. While I don't agree with everything he proposes, he at least has the honesty to address the real problems rather than just create a few of his own as his predecessor did.

The idea of extensive urban farming has appeal because it sounds like a quick fix to tracts of vacant homes or empty lots. There are issues with urban farms such as the type of farming... crops versus animals... and limits on pesticides and herbicides to prevent poisoning of the neighborhoods that remain inhabited. Obviously, the taxes on land and income cannot be the same as other urban taxes or farming is not economically feasible. Security would be a concern in a high-crime urban environment... particularly against theft.

I'm still of the opinion that Detroit has to reorganize and consolidate geographically and allow significant portions of what is presently Detroit to become smaller townships that could be the cores of new enterprise zones... and, possibly, some agriculture. This would require a massive effort directed at the state level to condemn large areas and a huge expense to relocate people. The alternative is 20 more years of stagnation and decline.



Sunday, November 29, 2009

Request For The U.S. Congress


I sent this email off to Anne Tyrrell, Rep. Thaddeus McCotter's Communication Director:


This video was prepared for Anthony Watts who is a meteorologist and has the website Watts Up With That?

This ought to be required viewing for all members of Congress. Perhaps Rep. McCotter could work with Sen. Inhofe to see that happens. You might want to mute the audio somewhat.

Best regards,

Bruce Hall
I'm hoping Rep. McCotter will run with this. Ten minutes is a lot of time for a member of Congress, but since the stakes are $ billions or $ trillions, maybe ten minutes is a good investment.



Saturday, November 28, 2009

UN Fails To Get Climate Non-Change Message


This can't be said enough...

Meanwhile, those who have pinned their beliefs about climate Armageddon on the manipulated data of those with political and financial objectives now have to deal with the results of an inconvenient lie... the crisis of global warming belief.

The next issue is not scientific, but political. The scientific debate can be resolved with real data; the political debate is purely rhetoric and emotion... much more difficult to resolve.

Too many politicians have staked a large part of their reputation on "saving" us from the imminent danger of climate disaster with non-scientific understanding of the role of CO2 in the climate... simplistic thinking. Walking away from their position means they are subject to the criticism of being "dupes." That is a career-ender for a politician. It is far easier for politicians to ignore facts and press ahead with positions. Look for President Obama to do just that in Copenhagen.

Stupidity has its own rewards.
This has been verified:
World leaders spruik climate deal chances

3 hours 17 minutes ago

Rudd meets world leaders at CHOGM

Fund welcomed: PM Kevin Rudd with his British counterpart Gordon Brown (Reuters: Carlos Barria )

Hopes for a new global climate pact have risen after rich nations at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Trinidad and Tobago offered to help poorer countries bear the costs of implementing any deal.

Commonwealth countries are home to two billion people, or a third of the planet's population - including major global players like Britain and India, and smaller island states like Nauru and the Maldives.

The United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen joined 53 Commonwealth leaders to work on the issue of climate change ahead of next month's conference in Copenhagen.

"Success in Copenhagen is in sight," UN chief Ban Ki-moon told the summit.

Read more....

"Global warming" will no longer be discussed.



Friday, November 27, 2009

Truth Or Smear


Apparently, if you are caught red-handed being a liar and manipulator, the best retort is to call the truth a "smear campaign."

Hacked climate emails called a "smear campaign"

by Stacy Feldman, SolveClimate

(SolveClimate) Three leading scientists who on Tuesday released a report documenting the accelerating pace of climate change said the scandal that erupted last week over hacked emails from climate scientists is nothing more than a "smear campaign" aimed at sabotaging December climate talks in Copenhagen.

"We're facing an effort by special interests who are trying to confuse the public," said Richard Somerville, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and a lead author of the UN IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Dissenters see action to slow global warming as "a threat," he said.

The comments were made in a conference call for reporters.

Read more....

Isn't it odd that there is no discussion whatsoever about the data? Rather the argument is that the "peers" who were involved in the manipulation and fraud "reviewed" each others' positions and as a result the "peer-reviewed" manipulation and fraud is unimpeachable.


Wednesday, November 25, 2009

An Inconvenient Lie


It is apparent to those involved in great climate debate that there has been a fundamental change in the dynamic of that debate.

Phil Jones, Director of the Climate Research Unit, now weighs in. Does he welcome the idea that, contrary to his own predictions, there may be little or no warming in coming decades? No!

Tim, Chris,

I hope you’re not right about the lack of warming lasting till about 2020. I’d rather hoped to see the earlier Met Office press release with Doug’s paper that said something like -half the years to 2014 would exceed the warmest year currently on record, 1998!

Still a way to go before 2014.

I seem to be getting an email a week from skeptics saying where’s the warming gone. I know the warming is on the decadal scale, but it would be nice to wear their smug grins away.

Read more....

Those of you who read the two-part post about the NCAR study and analysis of climate trends in the U.S. will recall this chart.

If there is a cyclical nature to perceived climate [as well as longer term trends that may be a result of many factors... including erroneous and inconsistent data collection], then the concern about cooling extending to 2020 may be realistic.

The likelihood would be a cyclical warming sometime in the decade of the 20s. By then, better measures of temperature and better understanding of climate drivers will likely be available. What is most probable is a de-politicizing of climate study.

It takes the revelation of corruption to convince the easily led that nothing is ever as simple as it first seems.

Meanwhile, those who have pinned their beliefs about climate Armageddon on the manipulated data of those with political and financial objectives now have to deal with the results of an inconvenient lie... the crisis of global warming belief.

The next issue is not scientific, but political. The scientific debate can be resolved with real data; the political debate is purely rhetoric and emotion... much more difficult to resolve.

Too many politicians have staked a large part of their reputation on "saving" us from the imminent danger of climate disaster with non-scientific understanding of the role of CO2 in the climate... simplistic thinking. Walking away from their position means they are subject to the criticism of being "dupes." That is a career-ender for a politician. It is far easier for politicians to ignore facts and press ahead with positions. Look for President Obama to do just that in Copenhagen.

Stupidity has its own rewards.


More Critique Of NCAR Cherry Picking Temperature Record Study - ICECAP


Earlier posts on Hall Of Record:

Nov 25, 2009
More Critique Of NCAR Cherry Picking Temperature Record Study

The bottom line is that if one wishes to express climate change by the varying number of temperature extremes, there has been no climate change for over 100 years.

See larger here.

See larger here.

See larger here.

See larger here.

This expands on the presentation of the U.S. data I did earlier.


Tuesday, November 24, 2009

U.S. Military Is No Longer Recognizable Under Obama


First the politically-correct tippy-toeing around Maj. Malik Hasan and now this shit [excuse me, but it is the kindest word I can use]. Let's see what our Commander-In-Chief has to say since he sets the policy that leads to this shit. And let's see what our military men and women have to say when President Obama tells them to ratchet up the fighting in Afghanistan. I would demand a contract that holds me harmless for any actions before I follow any order from any officer of any rank.

Navy SEALs Face Assault Charges for Capturing Most-Wanted Terrorist

Tuesday, November 24, 2009
By Rowan Scarborough

Navy SEALs have secretly captured one of the most wanted terrorists in Iraq — the alleged mastermind of the murder and mutilation of four Blackwater USA security guards in Fallujah in 2004. And three of the SEALs who captured him are now facing criminal charges, sources told

The three, all members of the Navy's elite commando unit, have refused non-judicial punishment — called an admiral's mast — and have requested a trial by court-martial.

Ahmed Hashim Abed, whom the military code-named "Objective Amber," told investigators he was punched by his captors — and he had the bloody lip to prove it.

Now, instead of being lauded for bringing to justice a high-value target, three of the SEAL commandos, all enlisted, face assault charges and have retained lawyers.

Matthew McCabe, a Special Operations Petty Officer Second Class (SO-2), is facing three charges: dereliction of performance of duty for willfully failing to safeguard a detainee, making a false official statement, and assault.

Petty Officer Jonathan Keefe, SO-2, is facing charges of dereliction of performance of duty and making a false official statement.

Petty Officer Julio Huertas, SO-1, faces those same charges and an additional charge of impediment of an investigation.

The three SEALs will be arraigned separately on Dec. 7. Another three SEALs — two officers and an enlisted sailor — have been identified by investigators as witnesses but have not been charged. obtained the official handwritten statement from one of the three witnesses given on Sept. 3, hours after Abed was captured and still being held at the SEAL base at Camp Baharia. He was later taken to a cell in the U.S.-operated Green Zone in Baghdad.

The SEAL told investigators he had showered after the mission, gone to the kitchen and then decided to look in on the detainee.

"I gave the detainee a glance over and then left," the SEAL wrote. "I did not notice anything wrong with the detainee and he appeared in good health."

Lt. Col. Holly Silkman, spokeswoman for the special operations component of U.S. Central Command, confirmed Tuesday to that three SEALs have been charged in connection with the capture of a detainee. She said their court martial is scheduled for January.

United States Central Command declined to discuss the detainee, but a legal source told that the detainee was turned over to Iraqi authorities, to whom he made the abuse complaints. He was then returned to American custody. The SEAL leader reported the charge up the chain of command, and an investigation ensued.

The source said intelligence briefings provided to the SEALs stated that "Objective Amber" planned the 2004 Fallujah ambush, and "they had been tracking this guy for some time."

The Fallujah atrocity came to symbolize the brutality of the enemy in Iraq and the degree to which a homegrown insurgency was extending its grip over Iraq.

The four Blackwater agents were transporting supplies for a catering company when they were ambushed and killed by gunfire and grenades. Insurgents burned the bodies and dragged them through the city. They hanged two of the bodies on a bridge over the Euphrates River for the world press to photograph.

Intelligence sources identified Abed as the ringleader, but he had evaded capture until September.

The military is sensitive to charges of detainee abuse highlighted in the Abu Ghraib prison scandal. The Navy charged four SEALs with abuse in 2004 in connection with detainee treatment.



Global Temperature Decline Aligns With U.S. Maximum Records



The tiny, close-knit clique of climate scientists who invented and now drive the “global warming” fraud - for fraud is what we now know it to be - tampered with temperature data so assiduously that, on the recent admission of one of them, land temperatures since 1980 have risen twice as fast as ocean temperatures. One of the thousands of emails recently circulated by a whistleblower at the University of East Anglia, where one of the world’s four global-temperature datasets is compiled, reveals that data were altered so as to prevent a recent decline in temperature from showing in the record. In fact, there has been no statistically significant “global warming” for 15 years - and there has been rapid and significant cooling for nine years.


Read more....

Interesting how that now aligns with the statewide monthly record temperatures I published in January. Downloadable file available ... see the top of the blog.

Funny how things work out when you DO NOT MANIPULATE THE DATA.



Economic And Other Mixed Messages


A brief departure from the "Climategate" frenzy....

Damned if I can see a pattern.

Let's see if we can summarize in one sentence:
"Stocks and gold are increasing in price while bank stability, jobs, home building, and tax revenues plummet; but there are many more global risks to growth that have prompted our allies to caution us about more economic bubbles that could burst."
Time to stuff the mattress with cash, fill the basement with canned goods, and load the shotgun?

There are just too many areas of irrational action occurring in our Federal government:
  • The rush to cripple our economy with onerous burdens of CO2 regulation
  • The rush to cripple our economy with onerous health care legislation
  • The rush to cripple our economy with onerous debt accumulation
  • The rush to cripple our economy with onerous tax expansion
We have seen the result of rushing to judgment with regard to the first of those based on faulty information and presumption. We are now about to face the results of rushing to judgment and action on the others. The Obama administration and the Democratic Party controlled Congress have pushed one ill-conceived agenda after another on this country.

Perhaps it is time for the Democratic Party and the Obama administration to heed the words of George Monbiot, a journalist who forgot the need for critical thinking:
I apologise. I was too trusting of some of those who provided the evidence I championed. I would have been a better journalist if I had investigated their claims more closely.
Perhaps the Obama administration and the Democratic Party controlled Congress would be better representatives of the people if they investigated the nature of the legislation they were pushing... even to the extent of reading it... and listened to the voices of those who have cautioned against such legislation... even the Congressional Budget Office... which has warned of the significant financial crisis that will occur if those laws are enacted.



Monday, November 23, 2009

Climate Snake Oil Salesmen


Earlier this month, I wrote:

Mr. Gore, in my opinion, is probably the greatest snake oil salesman of all time and the fortune he has amassed since leaving office is a testament to his silver-tongued spiel and the gullibility of his followers.
Apparently, Lord Monckton has similar regard for the scientists at the East Anglia University CRU:
Finally, these huckstering snake-oil salesmen and “global warming” profiteers — for that is what they are — have written to each other encouraging the destruction of data that had been lawfully requested under the Freedom of Information Act in the UK by scientists who wanted to check whether their global temperature record had been properly compiled. And that procurement of data destruction, as they are about to find out to their cost, is a criminal offense. They are not merely bad scientists — they are crooks. And crooks who have perpetrated their crimes at the expense of British and U.S. taxpayers.

Read more....
Looks like opinion is unanimous... the science is unsettling.




A Voice In The Climate Political Wilderness Is Heard


From the Congressional Record; November 18, 2009:

What I am reporting here is science, and the people have come to an agreement. After 8 years, the truth finally does come out.

Winston Churchill said: Truth is incontrovertible. Ignorance may prevent it. Panic may resent it. Malice may destroy it. But there it is.

Read the whole story... downloadable pdf 188K



The Climate Data Is Exactly What We Say It Is


I received the following email and am posting it unedited:


Claim: Data handling at CRU was 'completely out of control' -- 'They fudged so much that NOTHING that came out of CRU can have ANY believability' – November 22, 2009 – Soylent Green Website

Excerpt: The hacked e-mails were damning, but the problems they had handling their own data at CRU are a dagger to the heart of the global warming “theory.” There is a large file of comments by a programmer at CRU called HARRY_READ_ME documenting that their data processing and modeling functions were completely out of control. They fudged so much that NOTHING that came out of CRU can have ANY believability. If the word can be gotten out on this and understood it is the end of the global warming myth.

Full Article:

The Harry_Read_Me File

November 22, 2009

Love the ironic title. Got this from reader, Glenn. I’m out of my depth trying to read the code–and apparently so were several folks at CRU. If what he, and the techies at the links, say is true, it’s no wonder they had to spin this for 10 years–it’s all absolute bullshit.

Here’s Glenn’s take with links:

The hacked e-mails were damning, but the problems they had handling their own data at CRU are a dagger to the heart of the global warming “theory.” There is a large file of comments by a programmer at CRU called HARRY_READ_ME documenting that their data processing and modeling functions were completely out of control.

They fudged so much that NOTHING that came out of CRU can have ANY believability. If the word can be gotten out on this and understood it is the end of the global warming myth. This much bigger than the e-mails. For techie takes on this see:

To base a re-making of the global economy (i.e. cap-and-trade)on disastrously and hopelessly messed up data like this would be insanity.
It sounds like the same process the Soviets used for their 5-year plans... nothing based on reality and for public consumption only. The Soviet Union collapsed under the massive fictions that supported it. Anthropogenic Global Warming is about to collapse under similar fictions.

Al Gore has defrauded the world of millions of dollars. Barack H. Obama is about to "bankrupt the coal companies" and force the U.S. economy to absorb trillions of dollars of unnecessary cost and onerous Federal government regulation based on data fictions.

My senators, Debbie Stabenow and Carl Levin should be apologizing to the people of Michigan for helping to push this crap forward as saving our future when, in fact, it is nothing more than a Democratic Party power grab. They are building lies on top of lies while they claim to be protecting us from a harmless vapor... and have already cost this country billions of dollars.

Your Democratic Party senators should be apologizing as well. As for our esteemed President... no need to apologize. We understand the depth of your understanding.



Another Health Care Insurance Penalty Clause


The Democratic Party was busy this weekend trying to push through the Senate version of the Health Care bill that has ignited the passions of those who would actually have to pay for the free ride it offers.

So, just to be fair, Sen. Harry Reid made sure that there would be a tax penalty for not having insurance, unless you get the free ride... and don't pay taxes... and are already a burden on the rest of the social support system.

From Keith Hennessy via several sources:

Reid bill: 16M uninsured U.S. citizens pay a penalty tax. 8M uninsured illegal aliens do not.

Posted on November 21st, 2009 by kbh in featured, health, taxes

Reid bill: 16M uninsured U.S. citizens pay a penalty tax. 8M uninsured illegal aliens do not.

Under Leader Reid’s amendment, in the year 2019 about 16 million U.S. citizens would be uninsured and be forced to pay a penalty tax of almost $800 per year. About eight million illegal aliens would be uninsured and would owe no penalty tax. Both groups would get their health care through a combination of out-of-pocket spending and use of uncompensated care in emergency rooms and free health clinics.

This seems unfair.

You should read more....

It only seems unfair if you are a working class American who believes in choice. If you are a Democratic Party politician who is looking for more votes, it seems quite fair... and even more fair right after the amnesty program and automatic citizenship process are implemented.
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.
George Orwell, "1984", first sentence
Pay up or get ....



Sunday, November 22, 2009

If We Ignore The Truth, It Will Go Away


A look through the sites of the loudest climate alarmist advocates seems to confirm the reaction to the so-called Climategate revelations: silence is golden.



National Public Radio On Climategate


NPR commented on November 22:

Hackers Leak E-Mails, Stoke Climate Debate

LONDON November 21, 2009, 02:34 pm ET

Computer hackers have broken into a server at a well-respected climate change research center in Britain and posted hundreds of private e-mails and documents online — stoking debate over whether some scientists have overstated the case for man-made climate change.

The University of East Anglia, in eastern England, said in a statement Saturday that the hackers had entered the server and stolen data at its Climatic Research Unit, a leading global research center on climate change. The university said police are investigating the theft of the information, but could not confirm if all the materials posted online are genuine.

More than a decade of correspondence between leading British and U.S. scientists is included in about 1,000 e-mails and 3,000 documents posted on Web sites following the security breach last week.

Some climate change skeptics and bloggers claim the information shows scientists have overstated the case for global warming, and allege the documents contain proof that some researchers have attempted to manipulate data.

The furor over the leaked data comes weeks before the U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen, when 192 nations will seek to reach a binding treaty to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases worldwide. Many officials — including U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon — regard the prospects of a pact being sealed at the meeting as bleak.

Read more....



BBC On Climategate


Climate skeptics are evil criminals.



NOAA On Climategate


Nada, nil, nothing, zero, zilch.



Riding A Dead [Climate] Horse


It now appears that the skeptics had every reason to be skeptical of science that was not science, but simply a political agenda that was designed to be social engineering and fund funneling.

The question that remains: how far will the Obama administration ride this dead horse?



Saturday, November 21, 2009

Mainstream Media Reacts To Hadleygate [Climategate]


With all of the attention paid to the Hadley CRU data scandal, I thought it might be interesting to see what the local, liberal newspaper, the Detroit Free Press might be saying about Hadley, or CRU, or global warming in the light of the revelations that their faith may be based on false prophets. Here are the results of the archive search for the past 5 days.

One Hadley... but only if you wanted to listen to a Baptist preacher...

Page CO2???? Good News Corner????
But 4 articles about "global warming"...

Their faith is unshaken.



The Climate Models Are Right; The Actual Temperatures Are Wrong


Filed under: "When the facts don't fit the theory, the facts must be wrong."

From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , "Philip D. Jones" , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer

Hi all

Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming ? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low.

This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).

Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)

The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.***
I'm sure that the scientists at Hadley will find their missing degrees if they just keep looking through the models.

h/t American Thinker


Friday, November 20, 2009

Climate Audit Site Overloaded - Watts Up With That Provides Mirrored Info


Now that the story about the great global warming hoax/scam/fraud/lie/etc. is out, the Climate Audit site that provided the information is overloaded... maybe even intentionally so.... Therefore, Anthony Watts' site has picked up some of that load.

Scientists who place an agenda ahead of the truth are not scientists, but politicians in white coats.

Click for Mike’s Nature Trick at Watts Up With That?


Stalled Warming Or Started Cooling


From Anthony Watts' blog, Watts Up With That?

Der Spiegel Online: stagnating temperatures a puzzle 20 11 2009

Stagnating Temperatures

Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out

By Gerald Traufetter

Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.

In the two-part analysis of climate recently posted...
... the concluding chart provides some insight into the possible answer to Der Spiegel's quandry.
With this in mind, let us look again at the chart depicting the first 2 decades of the 21st century as a repeat of the 1960s and 1970s, but overlay a pattern of multiple sloped steps:
Note that virtually all of the warming can be attributed to less negative variance versus the early part of the century. This is consistent with loss of rural reporting stations and general urbanization, not because maximum temperatures have been increasing, and could explain some of the lack of significant negative anomalies in the last half of the 20th century.

We already have some indication of a cooling period beginning. If it does continue, perhaps the declaration of global warming requires additional evaluation.

Nature tends to avoid simple or linear processes.


Climate Audit Denial Of Service?


Another coincidence? With the news that the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit has been hacked, there has been a lot of traffic at Climate Audit, Steven McIntyre's science blog.

Apparently, the traffic has been too heavy. The last time this happened in 2007, it was apparently a concerted "denial of service" attack by those opposed to his scientifically rigorous analysis of climate issues. It may be happening again as it seems impossible to call up his site.


Microsoft Bing


I noticed my son using Microsoft's search engine... Bing so I thought I'd try it out. It has some nice features, but by and large any neat stuff is completely offset by an annoying "captcha" dialog that forces you to read indecipherable symbols that represent letters and numbers and then type them in a box... repeatedly.

After several occurrences of this "captcha" nonsense, it was back to Google.

Apparently, others agree.


Saturday Votes In Congress


Is it just me or are the huge bills in Congress being voted on during weekends? It seems that Saturday voting seems to be the way that the Democratic Party is pushing through their unpopular agenda with the minimum of media coverage... what can compete with college football?

From (11-20) 04:00 PST Washington - --

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday that the first crucial vote on an $848 billion health care overhaul package would probably happen Saturday.

Don't you wonder if anyone has read the material yet?



Wednesday, November 18, 2009

A Non-Linear Perspective Of Climate Change


The argument over whether or not temperature data reveals global warming or global cooling... or neither... has been raging since the IPCC issued its opinion that the earth was experiencing global warming. The problem is not one of truth versus lies, but a very simple issue of “on what part of the truth are we focusing?”

Global temperature data are notoriously suspect, inconsistent, and discontinuous. Nevertheless, there is ample evidence that during the past 30-40 years, there has been a period of moderate warming. From this evidence, a whole body of scientific and political endeavor has arisen to project the environmental and political risks associated with this warming.

Most recently, a study by The National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR] has examined daily maximum and minimum record temperatures and concluded that the U.S. is likely to experience a rapid increase in the ratio of maximum to minimum record temperatures. This was based on approximately 55 years of data.

Following an A1B emission scenario for the 21st century, the U.S. ratio of record high maximum to record low minimum temperatures is projected to continue to increase, with ratios of about 20 to 1 by mid-century, and roughly 50 to 1 by the end of the century.
There are two issues with this study beyond the reliability of the data or the analysis of the selected data:
1. What is the nature of our climate?
2. What inference can be drawn by the data used?
One version of climate is the record of temperatures from 1880:

This does not show actual temperatures but variation from a 1901-2000 average. The maximum negative variation is approximately -0.35 to -0.37°C while the maximum positive variation is approximately 0.55 to 0.57°C. Total variation is approximately 0.8°C.

There are two questions that must be asked regarding these data:

1. How do these data reflect longer term changes in climate?
2. How do these data compare with other measures of climate change?
A third and somewhat more difficult question to answer is how reliable are the readings through time.

First, these data represent a construction of global temperature anomalies. These may or may not be accurate within the total variation given the ever-changing technologies and methodologies, especially on a global basis. But, for the sake of argument, let us presume they are accurate to the extent claimed.

If we compare those data to the U.S. record, we find a somewhat different pattern.

Given the fact that, numerically, the U.S. stations account for the majority of the worldwide stations, we can attribute the differences to either global versus regional climate variation or, possibly, inferior global estimates of temperature. The pattern variations are distinct. [Source]

Rather than attempting to focus on global estimates of temperature variation from a mean, this will focus on the U.S. record and the implications therein.

Looking at the trend of the U.S. data, we see a nice coincidence of about 0.8°C upward for the period.

Therefore, it appears that the U.S. record is consistent with the global record. But before drawing that conclusion, we may want to look at a different trend line.

While unmistakably upward overall, we now see a variation… cyclical variation occurring about every 70 or 80 years: trough to trough and peak to peak.

Still, it can be argued that the overall trend is upward. That is a correct statement based on the data encompassing 1880 – 2008. The question that should be asked is whether that period is either sufficient or representative to draw any conclusions. There is a strong hint that something else is occurring.

Suppose we break up the approximate 130-year timeline into segments.

While not perfectly periodic, there is a startling symmetry to the data that is not seen in the linear trend line. In fact, one might question whether there was a larger process occurring than a simple, general warming trend. Of course, without additional data we can only speculate, but let us indulge ourselves with some speculation.

What if the temperature anomalies were part of a larger cyclical or oscillation externally-driven process? What if the longer-term data looked more like this?

There is no doubt that the selected data are trending upward, but the question is whether the data are representative. It has been generally recognized that there is a cooling occurring during this decade and scientists from around the world are beginning to warn of a continuation of this cooling – a pause in global warming for as much as 2 decades. That’s another coincidence?

Let us examine what happens to trend lines in an oscillating or cyclical process based on when the trend analysis begins. If we select a low point in the value range, we are assured of a positive trend line regardless of the number of cycles we analyze.

If the 1880s and 1890s represented a cold period in the U.S. temperature history and the 1860s and 1870s were warmer, we might have a somewhat different view of our climate history by changing the starting point a few decades.

If the general period between 1850 and 1880 was warmer than the subsequent period… and the coming period is generally cooler than the last two decades… then it is obvious, from the trend line, we are experiencing long-term regional cooling… or even global cooling.

The problem with data going back to 1850 is that it is difficult to determine what is really good data, especially on a global basis.

These charts were part of a 2004 presentation by Michael E. Schlesinger and Natasha Andronova; Climate Research Group; Department of Atmospheric Sciences; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. I contact Professor Schlesinger who indicated that they were not his own data, but kindly referred me to this source.

These charts show a distinctly cool period for the average global temperatures during the 1850-1920 period.

In July 2009, Steven McIntyre published the chart CRUTEM3 Zonal which shows distinctly different patterns.

Why the difference?
by Steve McIntyre on June 9th, 2009

Here is a puzzling comparison of two zonal averages from Phil Jones' CRUTEM3 gridded land data. Red shows the average from 20S to 20N and black shows the average of the 20-30S band (both N and S). These are calculated from gridded data at

I did this comparison because I noticed a difference between my own average of 20S-20N gridded data and the archived "low latitude" average (which was 30S to 30N)

Figure 1. CRUTEM3 Zonal Averages. Black 20-30 N and 20-30S. Red. 20S-20N. The range of differences goes from -1.7 to 4.6 deg C. Explanations welcome.
Note in the chart above that the uncertainty for the 1850-1880 period is greater that the variation between 1880 and 2000.

It is generally accepted that the world was coming out of a little ice age around 1850.
The Little Ice Age was a time of cooler climate in most parts of the world. Although there is some disagreement about exactly when the Little Ice Age started, records suggest that temperatures began cooling around 1250 A.D. The coldest time was during the 16th and 17th Centuries. By 1850 the climate began to warm.

During the Little Ice Age, average global temperatures were 1-1.5 degree Celsius (2-3 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than they are today. The cooler temperatures were caused by a combination of less solar activity and large volcanic eruptions. Cooling caused glaciers to advance and stunted tree growth. Livestock died, harvests failed, and humans suffered from famine and disease. [Source: UCAR]
Yet this 1924 publication has a different perspective of the 19th century… virtually no change between 1800-1870.

[click image for larger view]

Given the questions and conflicting observations about temperatures prior to 1880, I cannot draw conclusions regarding the possible cyclical nature of temperatures in the U.S. [and possibly elsewhere] prior to 1880. Therefore, let us look at one more chart and the implications.

Let us presume that prior to 1880 data was relatively poor and that the 1883 eruption of Mt. Krakatau affected weather for several years in the 1880s. Eliminating data from the 19th century and only focusing on the 20th century with the possibility of cooling for the next two decades… similar to the 1960s and 1970s… we can build a different sort of projection for the beginning of the 21st century.

While acknowledging a very modest warming during the 20th century from a relatively cold period, we see a recurring pattern emerging and temperature anomalies similar to those recorded between 1800 – 1870.

Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr. suggested one other study of value in this line of reasoning:

An assessment of three alternatives to linear trends for characterizing global atmospheric temperature changes

Dian J. Seidel; Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA
John R. Lanzante; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Received 3 December 2003; revised 3 March 2004; accepted 26 May 2004; published 29 July 2004.
This paper focus on discontinuous climate periods which change for various reasons. It suggests that among the various alternatives were:

The stylized cyclical charts shown earlier would be examples of “flat steps.” It would have been just as easy to select the break points to be upward and downward sloped steps during the 20th century.

The conclusion of the Seidel/Lanzante paper was:
Because the models incorporating breakpoints provide reasonable alternatives to linear trends, climate change detection and attribution studies could consider the possibility of using these alternative statistical models, or similar constructs, to compare observations with climate model simulations. In the stratospheric case it seems worthwhile to try to separate the effects of step-like changes associated with volcanic eruptions from gradual changes, which may have different causes. On the other hand, the ratcheting down of stratospheric temperatures may suggest a complex interaction among different processes affecting temperature. For the troposphere the nature of the modeled 1977 upward shift in temperature is unclear, and we suggest that attempts to attribute the warming over the past half century to natural or anthropogenic effects should consider the sloped or flat steps model as well as the traditional simple linear model to describe the change.
With this in mind, let us look again at the chart depicting the first 2 decades of the 21st century as a repeat of the 1960s and 1970s, but overlay a pattern of multiple sloped steps:

Note that virtually all of the warming can be attributed to less negative variance versus the early part of the century. This is consistent with loss of rural reporting stations and general urbanization, not because maximum temperatures have been increasing, and could explain some of the lack of significant negative anomalies in the last half of the 20th century.

We already have some indication of a cooling period beginning. If it does continue, perhaps the declaration of global warming requires additional evaluation.


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... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates


SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
[Image from:]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)