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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Sears Inefficiencies

SEARCH BLOG: BUSINESS

It's not always government that is inefficient.

Yesterday, I had the opportunity to purchase an item through Sears' parts and accessories subordinate website... PartsDirect.com.

I spoke with a helpful young man and explained that I had an older product that had been replaced by a newer one. The newer product was functionally and mechanically identical except for minor cosmetic changes. The newer product also had an optional item that I wanted to purchase for my older product.

The parts rep requested the model number which I provided from my old service manual. He couldn't find the accessory item I wanted and I explained that it was an item for another model for which I did not have the number, but which appeared on the sears.com website. That was a problem....

The parts support area does not have access to the sales product information. So, I went to the sears.com website and found the sales item number and model number for the product. That simply would not do; the sales model number is different from the parts and service model number. I asked to be transferred to a sales representative from sears.com.

I explained what I wanted to the sales rep and gave her the item number from the sears.com website for the newer model product. After several minutes, she was able to provide me with a parts and service model number for the product and transfer me back to partsdirect.com. With the additional information, the parts rep was able to identify the service part number for the accessory item I wanted and order it. Of course, I had to listen to three separate sales pitches for items that I did not want or need while she was processing the order.

Total time to place the order... about 45 minutes. Total order amount... about $22.

The Sears people were really very pleasant and did the best with what they had, but the system begs for improvement. If I had not had the old owners manual, I would not have been able to identify the model because the product tag had long since worn down to a shiny, reflective surface... it was placed in a position that begged for wear. The websites were virtually useless because an item identified on the sales site could not be identified correspondingly on the parts and service site.

Having worked in parts and service logistics as part of my automotive career, I recognize that it was common for sales and service to have a large, brick wall separating operations and thought processes. But in the age of websites and massive databases, there is really no excuse for simply computerizing the inefficiencies of the past... and preventing customers from using a website in a way that is beneficial to the customer and the company.

It shows in the results:


Someone from Sears can contact me if they want advice.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Dutch Redefine Freedom Of Speech

SEARCH BLOG: DOUBLETHINK

Of course there is Freedom of Speech in the Netherlands. It is the right of free people to be able to speak their minds. It is more important that speech be protected than feelings for only through freedom of speech can a democracy ensure its freedom.

To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which canceled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget, whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again, and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself -- that was the ultimate subtlety; consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word 'doublethink' involved the use of doublethink. - George Orwell: 1984
"It is not exaggerating to say that the Geert Wilders trial is a defining moment in the history of Western civilization. One would have to go back centuries to find a court case with as much significance for the future course of the free world. If the farrago of “hate” charges against Wilders stick, and he is convicted, it will herald the end of the freedom of speech in the West, as a precedent will have been set that other Western nations (urged on by the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which is the organization most responsible for the global assault on free speech) will be certain to follow." Read more....




2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Iran: Sanctions Smanctions

SEARCH BLOG:

The New York Times reports....

Iran’s Nuclear Plans Prompt New Calls for Sanctions

Left, Michel Euler/Associated Press; Right, Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, right, on Monday in Tehran. At left, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates in Paris.

By ALAN COWELL and THOM SHANKER
Published: February 8, 2010

PARIS — Iran told the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency on Monday that it would begin enriching its stockpile of uranium for use in a medical reactor, prompting officials from the United States, France and Russia to call for stronger sanctions against Tehran.

Read more....

This may fall under the Iranian category of ... we don't give a rat's ass.

Should President Obama go to Iran, make a nice bow before Ahmadinejad, and talk about conciliation? He could even throw in a nasty word or two about Israel.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Monday, February 08, 2010

New Climate Agency

SEARCH BLOG: NOAA

Not sure how this will play here and here.

From the Washington Post:

NOAA reorganization would provide more info on global warming

Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 8, 2010; 12:11 PM

The Obama administration proposed a new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Service on Monday, reorganizing the agency so it can provide Americans with predictions on how global warming will affect everything from drought to sea levels.

The initiative, modeled loosely on the 140-year-old National Weather Service, will provide forecasts to farmers, regional water managers and business operators affected by changing climate conditions. But it comes at a time when climate skeptics have become increasingly effective in attacking the credibility of global warming forecasts.

NOAA, along with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, ranks as one of the federal government's key agencies for monitoring the climate and conducting climate research.

"We currently respond to millions of annual requests for climate information, and we expect those requests to grow exponentially," said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco in an interview, adding that in light of recent scientific advances, "the models will continue to improve, and we will be able to provide more and more information."

The move does not come with a designated boost in funding, but it will bring NOAA's climate research arm together with its more consumer-oriented services so they can operate, in Lubchenco's words, "cheek by jowl."


------ CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ------

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Recorded The Super Bowl

SEARCH BLOG: FOOTBALL

Of course I knew that I was not the only one who did this:

Super Skip::DVRs Are MVPs for Super Bowl Watchers

by Mark Glaser, February 9, 2006 Mark Glaser

TiVo logo.JPG Everything is big about the Super Bowl. Advertisements cost $2.6 million for 30 seconds. The average audience was estimated at 90.7 million viewers. And a few bad calls by the referees were magnified to epic proportions.

While network executives are clinging to the idea that they are still in charge of what you watch and when you watch it, they are losing their grip. Even the Super Bowl -- the game to end all games, the Big Enchilada, the one where we all gather around our sets simultaneously in festive guacamole-eating splendor -- has lost its appeal as a pre-programmed TV show.

Case in point: I was invited to two different Super Bowl parties and both of them were going to be shown later on TiVo or a DVR (digital video recorder). While the point of time-shifting is usually to skip the commercials, in this case, the idea was to be able to watch the good commercials (and controversial football plays) over and over. Plus, being on the West Coast, we'd rather enjoy the nice Sunday afternoon outside, and watch the game at night later.

Of course, there are downsides to TiVo'ing the game. No one in the group can find out what happened ahead of time and ruin the ending for the rest of us. Any mistake in the recording could also ruin it -- if we record the wrong channel or don't record long enough, for instance. Or maybe a lightning strike could erase our TiVo's memory. (You think this way when you're a big football fan and not as much a fan of technology...)

Then, as you start watching the opening ceremonies, the real parlor game begins. Some people shout out to skip over all the past Super Bowl MVPs being presented. Others want to skip the lengthy analysis by the announcers. Eventually it's time to weed out the bad commercials that repeat. And if someone misses a good commercial or there's talking over the beginning of a commercial, you can just replay it.

Read more....
We attended the "Pre-Bowl" party at one son's home and then proceeded to the airport during the game to provide a ride for another son coming into town for the week. Then we started watching the game as it was winding down in "real time."

Shhhh. Don't tell me the score.

UPDATE: Now watching one the oldest rock bands in the world.... It must be hard to find a good show for the Super Bowl. Nice lights, though.

[L.A. Times]

2nd UPDATE: finished watching at 12:30 am. Very entertaining. Coach Payton beat quarterback Peyton. All about aggressive defense ala the Chicago Bears a few decades ago. Drew Brees showed that it doesn't take a rocket arm to be a great quarterback, but a quick mind and an accurate arm [for those NFL types that dissed Texas Tech quarterbacks]... 2-yard passes and lots of run after the catch.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Sunday, February 07, 2010

The Ultimate Climate Denialist: Rajendra Pachauri

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

When faced with criticism based on facts and disclosures of fraud and scientific malfeasance, Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], has this explanation... from FT.com:

It doesn’t take a genius to arrive at the conclusion that apparently this is carefully orchestrated. These things are certainly not happening at random. The one unfortunate thing that has happened is the mistake that the IPCC made on the glaciers. We have acknowledged that; we have put that on our web site.

But there is absolutely nothing [else] but I would say [there are] nefarious designs behind people trying to attack me with lies, falsehoods [alleging] that I have business interests. I have clarified that in very precise terms. Once I did that, they shifted their focus on [to] my institute, which, may I say - with all humility but some degree of pride - is an institution that the world now looks up to and admires. We function under the laws of this country. We are looked up to by everybody in every section of society, including the highest levels of government not only over here, but in other parts of the world.

What they are indulging in is skulduggery of the worst kind. I’m reasonably sure that very soon people will realise the truth and they would also question the credentials of some of the people who are behind them.

Read more....

"They" are out to get him...!

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Saturday, February 06, 2010

A Fair To Middlin' Snow Storm

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

Next comes the wind.


2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Dodged The Storm

SEARCH BLOG: WEATHER

We had some concern about flying back from California into Detroit Metro during the wee hours last night with all of the hype about the winter storm. But there was no cause for alarm here.


There was a dusting of less than an inch of the white powder that had settled on the driveway during our travels which was dispatched quickly with my janitor's broom.

Whew!

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Global Warming Made Easy - Verse 2

SEARCH BLOG: GLOBAL WARMING

Shortly after the Copenhagen Climate Confusion Conference, I wrote this: Global Warming Made Easy. Less than 2 months later, I can write "ditto" as Washington D.C. experiences its 2nd "storm of the century" in one season. From The Weather Channel:

Historic storm to paralyze the Mid-Atlantic
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Feb. 5, 2010 8:24 pm ET

Look for significant snow from Indiana to Pennsylvania but parts of the Middle Atlantic region could be in for a historic snow event.

Heavy 2-to-locally-4-inch rain stretching from northern Florida into Tidewater Virginia will result in spotty flooding.

In the end, the focus of this storm will be in the Mid-Atlantic States. Snow will stretch from eastern Pennsylvania to southern New Jersey. Snow will continue to expand northward to New York City by Saturday morning.

Heavy snow will dominate Saturday before winding down from west to east by evening. Air, rail and interstate travel will likely come to a halt. Heavy snow on awnings and rooftops may create damage.

Snowfall totals over northern of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania and southwen New Jersey will tally well over a foot. Some places across northern Virginia, eastern Maryland and Delaware may be buried with between 2 and 3 feet of snow. The storm may reach the top 3 of all-time in the Washington, D.C., area and may rival the record of 28" from the "Knickerbocker" storm of 1922. Philadelphia may see over 18" of snow in the area. A 2-to-4-inch snow is possible for New York City on the storm's northern fringe.

As the low pushes off the coast, it will strengthen quickly and produce very strong winds, especially along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Gusts between 45 and 50 mph are possible from southern New Jersey to the Norfolk area overnight and Saturday morning creating blizzard conditions at times.

Blizzard warnings are in effect from coastal Delaware and New Jersey back to the Baltimore/Washington area.

Winter storm warnings are in effect westward into Indiana. A general area of 6 to locally-12-inch snowfall could fall from central Indiana into southwestern Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh.



2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Friday, February 05, 2010

Inflated Accounting

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

Breakfast is not the time that I find myself totally awake so I had to look twice to be certain.

From The Wall Street Journal [click images for larger view]:



I'm never going to get used to this new accounting. When I took Latin back in high school [many decades ago], one million was written as MM and one thousand was written as M. Must be the effects of inflation since then. A horizontal line above the M can be used as an alternative to MM for one thousand.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Leaving California

SEARCH BLOG: CALIFORNIA

It's been a nice visit to San Francisco... especially from Michigan in February. But our son's family is now nicely settled into their new home and it is time to get back to our place in the snow.

My son and I had a nice talk last night about the city and how it was an anomaly among most U.S. cities. San Francisco has a moderate climate for the entire year which makes it eminently livable. It is also extremely expensive which makes it difficult for everyone except those with very good incomes or the homeless to stick around for long.

[Google Maps]
San Francisco is tightly bounded by water so expansion is basically north to Marin county, east across the bay to Oakland, or south into San Bruno or San Jose. It is the opposite of a Dallas or Atlanta that spread out into countless suburbs. Its tight geography and nearby high grade corporations make San Francisco's high expenses and high taxes somewhat workable... but a lot wasteful. Still, I'd most certainly take living within San Francisco over living within Detroit... no contest there. But given Detroit alternatives to San Francisco's alternatives, I'd probably go with Detroit's... affordable communities, great recreation opportunities, outstanding universities. It's just the dump called Detroit that spoils the environment.

We'll see how I feel at midnight tonight when we arrive to snow and 15 degrees.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Thursday, February 04, 2010

YouTube Visit

SEARCH BLOG: JOBS

I had the opportunity to visit the YouTube headquarters near San Francisco. It is a lot like you might imagine in some respects: an ultra-casual atmosphere where most people wear jeans, tee shirts, and sweatshirts. There is the standard bullpen cubicle arrangement of desks and everything seems to be covered in some sort of trinket or poster. And the average age is 15-years-old. Okay, I made that up, but the average age is young.

There is a corporate structure and hierarchy, but it is subdued. Everyone seemed quite focused on their particular projects and it was common to see employees walking around with their laptop computers or taking their lunches back to their cubicles.

This is the high-tech vision of future jobs for America. While it is great for YouTube and similar companies, it is wholly unrealistic to believe that this is the model for America. These positions go to the brightest minds... the far right portion of the bell curve. That's the top 5% at best. The other 95% can enjoy the creations of this top 5%, but their futures are elsewhere.

It will be up to the U.S. as a market-driven society to work out what is available to the other 95%. A small portion will be doctors in the growing health care field, but too many will be low-paid caregivers. A small portion will be financial wizards, but too many will be debtors who can't figure out their personal balance sheets.

The biggest challenge facing society is what people who work with their hands instead of with their imaginations will do for a living as we continue to divest ourselves of jobs requiring physical skills or endurance for jobs tapping keys or reading computer analyses. Despite what our politicians in Washington or the state capitols might believe, throwing money at the problem results in only one thing: a country littered with wasted cash.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Wednesday, February 03, 2010

President Obama's Popularity

SEARCH BLOG: OBAMA

President Obama's popularity rating has improved dramatically since the State Of The Union speech when he dramatically shifted focus from the climate red herring and the health care red herring to the one major concern for most Americans: the economy.

It didn't take a rocket scientist to understand what the American people want to hear from their President. So, better late than never, President Obama told them what they wanted to hear... and his approval rating jumped from minus 19 to minus 6... probably on the hope of change rather than any real change in direction.

I suspect it is the absence of talk about health care, climate, and alternative energy that has given people the illusion of change in the President's agenda. What hasn't changed are:

  • a focus on spending, taxes, and more regulation rather than working with business to improve the environment for jobs creation
  • a focus on restricting the growth of existing energy sources in the hope that unreliable alternative sources will sustain the needs of businesses and consumers without added crippling costs
  • a focus on government growth in the belief that bureaucracy brings out the best in our nation
The fundamentals will be the eventual undoing of the President's agenda... and his popularity.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Now It Is President Obama Talking About Jobs

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

These excerpts from Gov. Jennifer Granholm's State of the State addresses as shown in The Detroit News:

A LOOK BACK

Here’s a look at statements made and initiatives proposed in Gov. Jen­nifer Granholm’s first seven State of the State addresses.

2003

Quotes: “I submit to you that while the state of our budget is weak, the state of our Michigan spirit is strong. … How did our budget get so out of whack? Quite simply, we cut taxes but not spending, and we continue to spend more than we take in. This will stop.”

Program proposals: Technology Tri-Corridor (focus on development in life sciences, auto industry and homeland security); Project Great Start (parenting, reading to children, coordinate children’s programs); chronic truants don’t get driver’s licenses.

2004

Quotes: “The state of the state tonight is one of total determination: Michigan will attract and keep good jobs. … If you seek a leaner govern­ment, look about you.”

Program proposals: No Worker Left Behind (job training); Cool Cities (make cities attractive to young workers); increase use of Michigan Economic Growth Authority tax breaks.

2005

Quotes: “Will we let Michigan’s economy languish, or will we work together to create the good jobs our state needs? Will we stand still, or will we move forward? I am moving. Move with me.”

Program proposals: 21st Century Jobs Initiative (invest in research and innovation); increase the state minimum wage; Promise Scholar­ships ($4,000 grants to students who complete two years of college); Michigan Opportunity Partnership (rapid-response job training to fill openings in the marketplace).

2006

Quotes: “Michigan, I am here to tell you: We have a detailed and com­prehensive plan to grow this economy. … In five years, you’re going to be blown away by the strength and diversity of Michigan’s transformed economy.”

Program proposals: Focus on alternative energy jobs; Michigan First health care plan (affordable coverage for 550,000 uninsured); strength­en high school graduation requirements.

2007

Quotes: “We will increase our efforts to diversify the economy, reform government to cut costs, strengthen our schools, retrain displaced workers, expand access to health care and revitalize our cities. And we will finally put our fiscal house in order.”

Program proposals: Require students to attend school until they’re 18; ban smoking in the workplace; reform state business tax.

2008

Quotes: “Last year, people wanted decisive action on jobs, on health care, on schools. What they got was partisan rancor over a budget. … Tonight, I’m calling on you to join me in an era of unprecedented cooper­ation for historic progress.”

Program proposals: Replace large, failing high schools with smaller schools focused on discipline; add 100 troopers with recruit school; increase electricity production from renewable sources to 10 percent by 2015 and 25 percent by 2025.

2009

Quotes: “Any honest assessment of our state’s economy must recog­nize that things are likely to get worse before they get better. … The days when our government could be all things to all people are behind us.”

Program proposals: Reduce reliance on fossil fuel by 45 percent by 2020; call on auto insurance companies to freeze rates; direct Public Service Commission and Department of Environmental Quality to ex­plore alternatives before approving new coal-fired power plants.

Source: Detroit News research
Perhaps I'm missing something, but the 2009 program proposals still are a giant leap of faith or ignorance regarding anything resembling brilliant steps leading to an improved economy and more jobs. This is just a regurgitation of the national nonsense being spewed by the Obama administration. You have to love how programs leading to higher energy costs and shutting out insurance companies are going to improve the economy. How about making Michigan a "right to work" state?

Meanwhile, the State of Michigan finds itself unable to print money in the same way that the Federal government can. Consequently, we can expect more of the same... because the governor proposes more of the same.

Now it is President Obama's turn to offer... more of the same.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Power Drain

SEARCH BLOG: ECONOMY

When The Wall Street Journal has an article critical of the Obama administration's voodoo economics, many are inclined to say ho-hum.

[DEFICIT]

The federal budget deficit has long since graduated from nuisance to headache to pressing national concern. Now, however, it has become so large and persistent that it is time to start thinking of it as something else entirely: a national-security threat.

Read more....

But when The New York Times agrees with The Wall Street Journal, then it might be time for everyone to take notice.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Tuesday, February 02, 2010

California And Emissions

SEARCH BLOG: TRAFFIC

It's always a pleasure to visit California when Michigan is in the middle of winter. Mild [coolish] weather invites us to walk around and enjoy the scenery and get some exercise on the hills around San Francisco. There are plenty of sights to see and activities to do.

The one thing I absolutely dislike about this area is the total incompetence in managing traffic signal progression. It's a continuous progression of go-stop-go-stop... ad naseum. That's really ironic for a state that prides itself in being on the "cutting edge" of air quality control. That's the same state that mandates really strict emissions standards for automobiles. Apparently, the state/municipal governments find it much easier to push the blame on automobile manufacturers than do their job to create effective and smooth flowing traffic patterns.



The high volume of traffic on this roadway suggests an insufficient distribution of green time.
This has been my pet peeve as a driver for many years... not only in California, but universally around the U.S. What's so difficult to calculate the timing of lights on a main thoroughfare with traffic going X distance at Y posted speed? Perhaps California's educational system lacks sufficient mathematics training. Senator Boxer and Rep. Pelosi should look into this immediately rather than coming up with expensive, economy killing mandates.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Monday, February 01, 2010

Climate Nonscience

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE CHANGE

It's always the story. It doesn't matter the facts; it's always the story. That is why it is not surprising to read increasing number of stories from the so-called "mainstream media" that are poking fun and holes in the global warming [aka 'climate change'] contingent... many identified by Marc Morano.

Let's get this clear: there has been apparent warming since the 1880s. The key word here is apparent.

Joe D'Aleo at Icecap and Anthony Watts at Watts Up With That? have been among the leaders of those challenging the data used to "prove" this warming. Their chief argument is that the data has been manipulated to such a degree that it is nearly meaningless... and that the measurement of data has become so poor because of improper weather station siting that many of the stations are reporting temperatures 2 to 5 degrees higher than actual.

Still another argument is that the loss of rural stations and the encroachment of cities on previously rural sites has created widespread Urban Heat Island effects.

This blogger has taken a slightly different approach to arrive at similar conclusions. While it is of utmost importance to examine the minutia of the temperature record and recording process, a macro look reveals much of the conclusions of the detailed examination.

A detailed explanation can be found here, but this is the nutshell version.

Rather than applying a linear trend analysis to the temperature history from 1880, use a non-linear analysis... break up the series into smaller time segments to see if there is a different pattern. The data shown here are U.S. temperature anomalies as reported by NOAA.

This results in a repeating low-high pattern or climate oscillation. If we accept the "official" weather data, it is clear the the current warm period is no warmer than the previous warm period. The last cool period may have been slightly warmer than the beginning cool period.

How would one interpret this look? First, any warming is not due to an increase in hot temperatures, but may be a result of less cold temperatures. This would be consistent with the Urban Heat Island concept that says the release of stored heat from the urban surroundings prevents temperatures from falling as much as they would in a nearby rural environment. An expanding UHI would result in higher minimum temperatures.

If, as Joe and Anthony argue, the recorded temperatures over the past few decades have been overstated because of poor siting, then one might say that the most recent warm period was actually cooler than the previous warm period. That contention would be consistent with the all-time, statewide, maximum temperature records that revealed the 1930s still have many more maximum temperature records than the 1990s.

Completing our macro look at the record, we would expect the next couple of decades to move toward the cool part of the normal climate oscillation.

This is certainly consistent with many "skeptics" including some Russian scientists who have been predicting a significant cooling for several years.

What about that apparent warming? That's the thing about a linear analysis. The mere choice of a starting point will have enormous influence on the trend line. Had we selected the high point of the cycle, the trend line would have been flat to down. Isn't that convenient for those who wish to alarm the world about warming?

Will the minimum temperatures be less cold? Possibly, if you live in a city with a weather stations located near an artificial heat source. At least the weather station will say you are not so cold.

You can read your mainstream media now. What they write may be nonscience, but the media climate toward global warming has certainly changed.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Sunday, January 31, 2010

On The Move

SEARCH BLOG: TRAVEL

Update: finally connect to the internet around 10:00 pm Sunday EST. Adding a few pictures.

In San Francisco helping my oldest son's family move from Pacifica. It's a big change from a hilltop overlooking an ocean to a neighborhood setting with playgrounds, but lifestyles require adjustment when you have a child on the verge of walking. A home built on the side of a steep hill just doesn't work real well.

Publishing this from my iPhone until we can get the cable Internet bugs worked out.


By the way, if you like the view of the ocean and a clear view of San Francisco at night, the home adjacent to the top picture is for sale [no, not my son's and sure it is a nice 7-figure number].




2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Friday, January 29, 2010

George Orwell Predicted Climategate In His Novel 1984

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE

The underlying dynamics of the scientific malfeasance with regard to climate science and politics... popularly known as "Climategate"... was foretold in George Orwell's 1949 classic titled 1984. In the tome, the phrase was uttered: "Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past."

For those of you who just thought "huh?", this is what he meant. The "truth" about the past [climate] is the basis for making decisions about future actions to address changes that have occurred moving from the past to the present. If you control the present system of measuring and analyzing climate, you can adjust the past with impunity. Having adjusted the past and controlling the present, then you set the agenda for future actions.

For those of you who have no idea what this is about, I recommend that you go to Watts Up With That? This is a link to the search on "Climategate." Somewhat hidden among all of the posts is this gem which is a fairly long .pdf file that really exposes the doublethink. For those of you who are familiar with Climategate, you will appreciate how Orwell's blueprint for a government and system that declares...

"it means a loyal willingness to say that black is white when Party discipline demands this. But it means also the ability to believe that black is white, and more, to know that black is white, and to forget that one has ever believed the contrary. This demands a continuous alteration of the past, made possible by the system of thought which really embraces all the rest, and which is known in Newspeak as doublethink."
So, if the past was warmer... it is now cooler. If the present is cooler, it is now warmer than ever. And the future... it is whatever we say it is. And you will believe it.


2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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Thursday, January 28, 2010

More Climate Politics

SEARCH BLOG: CLIMATE and POLITICS

Recently, while attempting to update 2009 records for statewide, all-time, monthly minimum and maximum records, I ran across the problem that information seemed to be missing from the 1st quarter of 2009. That fact would have passed without notice except that I was looking for the January 2009 all-time record for Maine which had been verified at -50F. Subsequently, it was revealed that the NCDC records were not necessarily complete simply because not all weather stations that are considered "official" are included in the database. Maine's station was one of those.

NOAA did rerun the 1st quarter to include the missing data for the summary reports. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that all of the other reports for 2009 were updated or even needed to be updated since NOAA could not explain why they were missing from the summaries in the first place. It is possible that all of the other analysis for the year was done with all of the records; it is also possible that all of the 2009 analysis might be incorrect because approximately 1/10th of the data from cold periods was excluded. We probably will never know... and that is not reassuring.


Meanwhile, the people at www.icecap.us [scroll down to "Climate-gate Redux"] had prepared a blistering report about the whole "Climategate" fiasco... blaming a large part of it on NOAA. That was followed up by Anthony Watts' reporting how of of NOAA's top managers had misused information about weather station site quality to dismiss the notion that there was a problem with the quality of those site... something that the site survey showed exactly the opposite.

2012 IS GETTING CLOSER

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
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Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

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February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)