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Thursday, October 07, 2004

Beyond Truth

We left the issue of truth hanging... or is it just us twisting in the wind?

Complexity and truth. One causes the other to be elusive. Part of our problem is language. Peel back the onion of "truth" and "logic" within our language and we end up to "assumption" and "presumption".

What do we "know"? We have to presume, based on empirical observation, that humans generally perceive the world in the same way - mechanically. That is to say, our senses of touch, taste, smell, sight and hearing generally work the same way for all individuals since we have a 99.99% commonality in DNA. I see red, you see red. We probably perceive about the same thing unless one of us has a defect that makes us "colorblind". I can't tell you the "truth" of red. A physicist can describe the energy signature of red in terms of wavelengths. We can assign meanings to red: stop, danger, passion, Communist, Republican state.... But there is nothing inherent to red itself that assists us in the pursuit of "truth" or "meaning" other than the fact that it is very likely that our common perception of red is very much the same. But at the same time, our common perception is also our common limitation based on our common organic organization.

Where are we going with this?

If we understand that behind our language and our perceptions there are general commonalities, but also general limitations, we can begin to see the importance of the assigned meanings in our experience.

A volcano explodes: the gods are angry. Another group of humans are killed by a natural disaster: it is the will of Allah to punish the unbelievers. We won the war: God is on our side. That is the truth of "red". Okay, that's a little simplistic... but not too much.

We seek the "truth" of events, data, beliefs. Mostly, we argue about the truth of "red" (or we co-opt that expression).

Something can't be in two places at one time... except in quantum physics. Nothing can exceed the speed of light... except that light can be slowed down to a crawl under the right conditions. We all have 20/400 vision with regard to "truth". But perhaps the truth of it is that we can't really describe the truth with our language and our perceptions.

What can we do? Well, based on our common perception of the world around us, we can examine the appropriateness of our assigned meanings and beliefs within that dynamic, volatile framework.

A scientist attempts to say: "if this, then that, given these." If we do this, that will happen, given these parameters. If the results are repeatable, then the conclusion is deemed valid... until a better explanation is offered. There is a difference between science and science-fiction. When it comes to the meaning of things, we humans have a little more difficulty. We have a tendency to assign meanings when we can't comprehend or accept what our perceptions provide. Hence, since we cannot comprehend the beginning or end of what we perceive to be "existence" (but we try), we assume that something created it and, given enough people over enough time without any means to comprehend the beginning of existence, the conclusion is that there is a creator and that creator is God. Given more people and time, the "nature of God" is revealed. Given more people and time, God's "truth" is revealed. Given more people and time, the "true God" and "true believers" are revealed.

Except that there are apparently more than one "true God" and "true belief". So the only way to settle that anomoly is to fight until one set of true believers has dominated or eliminated another.

That is much more satisfying than saying, "We just don't know and can't know what's beyond our perception." After all, we get an answer and at least someone gets to own the "truth".

But I don't want to go there. It's much more fascinating to examine the results of humans assigning meaning to their perceptions. We don't have to know the truth; we can understand the consequences of our assigned meanings.

So, in coming issues, we have the opportunity to examine "right and wrong" "fair or unfair" "good or evil"... or we can examine "functional versus dysfunctional". Maybe they are just different faces of the same thing... maybe not.

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)