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Monday, October 11, 2004

Right or Wrong... or Right the Wrongs

Given the elusive nature of the "truth"... even the "facts"... we might conclude that little can be concluded about the appropriateness of actions, policies, laws, beliefs, etc. To the contrary, truth is not necessary to the discussion of what we deem to be right or wrong.

Truth is a construct. Right and wrong are more immediate and contextual. We covered territorial imperative driven by survival needs as basic to our thoughts and actions. As we have become more complex and sophisticated in our ability to survive... indeed, collectively we seldom concern ourselves with threats of the environment or other species... we increasingly have had to respond to the territorial imperative instinct with larger scale measures.

What does that mean?

We are now... actually have been for thousands of years... only concerned about interactions with other humans. Consequently, there has been a continuous effort to balance the territorial imperative of an individual or group with a cooperative process. In other words, there is a balancing act between what is beneficial for an individual and what is beneficial for groups. The individual is driving to "succeed". The group is driven to manage the individual. From these polarities come our concept of right and wrong... always from the group perspective. Unmanaged individual territoriality leads to chaos and destruction; unmanaged group territoriality leads to war and destruction.

Whether handed down from a deity or a legislature, what is "right" versus what is "wrong" is contextual. That doesn't mean that what is perceived as right or wrong is constantly changing. But it does mean that what is accepted as right or wrong is constantly being challenged by those who would benefit by changes in the accepted definitions. "God's laws" or group laws are in conflict with individual liberty (or license, as some would say). There is no absolute rule regarding anything; there is only the right or wrong that the group can impose and still retain the support of its constituents.

What about dictatorships that impose the will on the group? Well, actually this is one group (the dictator's) imposing its will on another group (the subjugated). This is a not a case of right or wrong as much as a situation of power and lack thereof. These situations tend to resolve themselves over time. Nevertheless, even in these situations, there are generally accepted standards of right and wrong. If the dictator's group forays too much into the realm of what is "wrong", the likelihood of rebellion increases.

So what are we saying?

  • Right and wrong are not absolutes; they are what is accepted by the group. For example, most groups hold murder to be wrong. But the Nazis held that murder of Jews and other "undesirables" was the correct thing... the right thing... to do. Killing outsiders has not always been deemed "murder"; whereas killing members of the group is usually forbidden.

  • Right and wrong are contextual. If the group is driven by the fear and acceptance of a deity, then there are immutable "laws". Women must be covered completely. One must worship on Sunday. No other gods are allowed. One group's "immutables" are not necessarily another's. One group's "truths" are not necessarily the other's.

  • Right and wrong can and do change over time and circumstance. Individual protections increase and decrease as the dynamics of the group changes or the interaction of the group changes among other groups. What is "right", what is acceptable, changes over time.
What then, anything goes? Not exactly. It's just that not everything stays. What was once deemed "wrong" may eventually become "right". Then we talk about the wrongs being righted.

Next... right and wrong or functional and dysfunctional?

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
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FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006
Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)