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Monday, October 18, 2004

Philosophy: Critical... thinking

Yesterday, I watched a program about Greek history: Homer, the Iliad, Troy, Helen....

A lot happens in 3,000-4,000 years. Civilizations come and go and get buried and lost. Of course, we are getting better at recording history... or are we?

No one knows for sure about the "facts" surrounding Troy and its war with Sparta. In fact, there are other versions about Troy that place it in England, of all places. And the great poet Homer may or may not have been an actual person. Some think he is an amalgamation of many poets and storytellers. Yet, the Iliad remains one of the great sagas of all time... fact, fiction or a little of both.

What is of interest also are the means by which this "history" was preserved through time. For hundreds of years before Homer (if he existed), parts of the tale that became the Iliad were handed down by storytellers... orally. It wasn't until later that a written version of Homer's Iliad "hit the newstands".

Now we have computers, satellite telephones, instant "facts" from numerous sources. We have archives of history in dozens of media. All is known; all is told... or not.

Dramatic events can be produced through creative camera angles and editing or outright staging. Digital photographs are easily manipulated by anyone with $200 software. Statements can be strung together electronically so there is little resemblance to what was originally said and the context in which it was said completely lost.

Facts can be manufactured or easily misrepresented... and with television and radio stations competing to be first with the "facts", they sometimes skimp on the "fact checkers". Then we have particular "facts" that might be wrong, but represent the truth... so that's okay. Sorry, Dan.

It used to take hundreds of years to create hi-story from story. Now it takes a few minutes.

That means you have the responsibility to be a critical thinker. The fabricators are absolved of their responsibility to be "truthful". They only have to sound "plausible". You must, therefore, understand:

"the relationship of language to logic,... (or have) the ability to analyze, criticize, and advocate ideas, to reason inductively and deductively, and to reach factual or judgmental conclusions based on sound inferences drawn from unambiguous statements of knowledge or belief....(or acquire) the ability to distinguish fact from judgment, belief from knowledge, and skills in elementary inductive and deductive processes, including an understanding of the formal and informal fallacies of language and thought."
You need to cut through the b---s---. Election Day is near.... Do some critical thinking.
  • Is John Kerry a Vietnam War hero or a Communist stooge? Can the answer be "neither"? Can the answer be "both"?
  • Was George Bush a "draft dodger" or did he "serve honorably" in the National Guard? Can the answer be "neither"? Can the answer be "both"?
  • Is what happened 35 years ago relevant? Why?
  • Is what happened between 35 years ago and now more relevant?
  • Are there patterns of decisions that anticipate future decisions?
  • As president, will Bush or Kerry benefit more people? How?
  • As the beneficiary of great wealth, how can Kerry represent the "common man"?
  • As the beneficiary of great privilege, how can Bush represent the "common man"?
  • What does the "common man" mean... careful.
  • Has Bush sold out to business interests? For example?
  • Has Kerry sold out to special interests? For example?
  • Is Bush to blame for the economic recession or Clinton or both or neither?
  • Is Bush to blame for job outsourcing or Clinton or both or neither?
  • Who signed NAFTA? (Hint: January, 1994) Who both supported and criticized it?
Need I go on (you really need to click on this link)?

Step right up! Getcher critical thinking here! Hurry, hurry, hurry!!!

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There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.
Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956)
“The Divine Afflatus,” A Mencken Chrestomathy, chapter 25, p. 443 (1949)
... and one could add "not all human problems really are."
It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are.
- O. Henry
... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.
The Independent (UK)

Tracking Interest Rates

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!
August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.
December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.
March 28, 2007
The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007 My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.
August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.
September 11, 2007 It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.
September 18, 2007 I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.
October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."
November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN
"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."
http://www.reuters.com/

December 11, 2007 Somehow the Fed misses the obvious.
fed_rate_moves_425_small.gif
[Image from: CNNMoney.com]
December 13, 2007 [from The Christian Science Monitor]
"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]
January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.
January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.
January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]
“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”
January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:
The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.
Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

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Michigan, United States
Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades. Education: B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German) M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)